SSS Theater: Avi Garcia

[bmags]

If he hits 245 he's going to have a 285 OBP. That's not acceptable even if he's hitting 30 HR. He needs to hit 280 or higher in order to have an acceptable OBP.

 

His defense is a lost cause imo. If he can slash 280/320/480 he's a 2-3 WAR player however.

 

Last year he hit .245 with a .309 OBP.

[steveno89]

Last year he hit .245 with a .309 OBP.

 

I need to see way more than two good weeks to declare Avi anything more than a sub replacement level player

 

Anyone can get hot for a month, but he needs to sustain the hitting over several months for me to buy in

[Rowand44]

I would still bet on neither player being on the next good Sox team.

Well this is obviously wrong considering they're on this year's team!

[Bob Sacamano]

I need to see way more than two good weeks to declare Avi anything more than a sub replacement level player

 

Anyone can get hot for a month, but he needs to sustain the hitting over several months for me to buy in

 

Exactly. If you really dig into guy's numbers, your going to see hot and cold streaks everywhere. It's just more noticeable at the beginning of a season.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Exactly. If you really dig into guy's numbers, your going to see hot and cold streaks everywhere. It's just more noticeable at the beginning of a season.

True enough, but Avi's numbers since 8/1/16 are terrific.

[Y2Jimmy0]

True enough, but Avi's numbers since 8/1/16 are terrific.

 

 

I don't believe there's any carryover from year to year. I don't factor in spring training stats because I think they are meaningless so it's tough for me to date back to last year as well.

[Dick Allen]

I don't believe there's any carryover from year to year. I don't factor in spring training stats because I think they are meaningless so it's tough for me to date back to last year as well.

Most projection is based on previous work. You usually can throw out September stats on a non contender but last year's results certainly can be used especially when the guy was working on changing his swing. Of course I would never bet money Avi is now one of the better hitters in the league, but there have been encouraging signs he is truly turning things around. The problem is he has had at least a couple 40 or 50 game stretches where he has looked great. Two weeks from now it might be Avi being Avi is back. But as long as he hits the ball in the air, and makes pitchers throw strikes, he is very dangerous.

 

 

His last 240 or so plate appearances he is hitting around .280 with an OPS around .800, and he actually was pretty Aviesque last September.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Dick Allen

[chitownsportsfan]

Most projection is based on previous work. You usually can throw out September stats on a non contender but last year's results certainly can be used especially when the guy was working on changing his swing. Of course I would never bet money Avi is now one of the better hitters in the league, but there have been encouraging signs he is truly turning things around. The problem is he has had at least a couple 40 or 50 game stretches where he has looked great. Two weeks from now it might be Avi being Avi is back. But as long as he hits the ball in the air, and makes pitchers throw strikes, he is very dangerous.

 

 

His last 240 or so plate appearances he is hitting around .280 with an OPS around .800, and he actually was pretty Aviesque last September.

 

He looked skinnier at the end of last year as well and he looks thinner then he has before so far this spring. I think it's helped get his bat through the zone a little quicker. Some guys can bulk up and not lose quickness through the zone but for Avi it always looked like he was a little too stiff in his trunk.

 

Maybe he did less weightlifting and more band and flexibility training this offseason. There was a very interesting interview I heard with Robbie Cano about his new offseason training plan. His trainer ordered him not to touch a weight for two months and to only work on band and core flexibility work. He said he feels better now than he has in half a decade.

[caulfield12]

He looked skinnier at the end of last year as well and he looks thinner then he has before so far this spring. I think it's helped get his bat through the zone a little quicker. Some guys can bulk up and not lose quickness through the zone but for Avi it always looked like he was a little too stiff in his trunk.

 

Maybe he did less weightlifting and more band and flexibility training this offseason. There was a very interesting interview I heard with Robbie Cano about his new offseason training plan. His trainer ordered him not to touch a weight for two months and to only work on band and core flexibility work. He said he feels better now than he has in half a decade.

 

Puig this year would be another example of bat speed returning at a much lighter weight.

[chitownsportsfan]

Puig this year would be another example of bat speed returning at a much lighter weight.

 

I think for some guys they just play better a lighter weight. Some guys play better bulkier. Just gotta find what works the best for each guy. The Sox have a great training staff I'd be curious if they had any input on his decision to lose some weight (including muscle) this offseason.

[chitownsportsfan]

SI piece:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/18/avisail-g...icago-white-sox

[Bob Sacamano]

SI piece:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/18/avisail-g...icago-white-sox

 

"Slugger" haha

[chitownsportsfan]

"Slugger" haha

 

yea that article was a little too optimistic. He's off to a hot start, but he's got a lot of work still to do.

[tray]

I'd like to see some comparisons between Avi Garcia and Kyle Schwarber.

Garcia is 25 while Schwarber is 24.

Schwarber is about 6 ft. tall and weighs about 240 pounds.

Avisail Garcia is 6 ft 4" and I am not sure of his weight because he has lost at least 15 pounds.

in any case, I believe he weighs less than Schwarber.

 

Speed on the bases and in the outfield-

No comparison. Avi has plus speed. Schwarber is a dump truck with a flat tire.

Nwither is a plus defender and they have both made lawn darts of themselves in the outfield.

 

OBP and Batting Average? Schwarber appears to a consistent .240 average hitter.

Avi probably will hit for a better average this season.

 

Would the Sox trade Avi for Schwarber straight up?

I wouldn't

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rowand44]

Oh Jebus.

[witesoxfan]

I'd like to see some comparisons between Avi Garcia and Kyle Schwarber.

Garcia is 25 while Schwarber is 24.

Schwarber is about 6 ft. tall and weighs about 240 pounds.

Avisail Garcia is 6 ft 4" and I am not sure of his weight because he has lost at least 15 pounds.

in any case, I believe he weighs less than Schwarber.

 

Speed on the bases and in the outfield-

No comparison. Avi has plus speed. Schwarber is a dump truck with a flat tire.

Nwither is a plus defender and they have both made lawn darts of themselves in the outfield.

 

OBP and Batting Average? Schwarber appears to a consistent .240 average hitter.

Avi probably will hit for a better average this season.

 

Would the Sox trade Avi for Schwarber straight up?

I wouldn't

 

I would trade Garcia to the Cubs for Schwarber so fast it would make your head spin.

[Rowand44]

I wonder what Theo/Jed's reaction would be if Rick proposed that deal to them. Would they ever answer a call from the Sox again?

[tray]

Any offensive or defensive stats to back up some of the opinions here?

 

 

 

 

[Rowand44]

Any offensive or defensive stats to back up some of the opinions here?

Literally all of them outside of these 2 weeks. Not to mention Schwarber is close to 2 years younger and is under contract for longer.

[jenksycat]

Any offensive or defensive stats to back up some of the opinions here?

 

Think we could package Avi + Shields for like Schwarber + Happ ++?

[chitownsportsfan]

f*** Schwarber why not Trout?

[tray]

Literally all of them outside of these 2 weeks. Not to mention Schwarber is close to 2 years younger and is under contract for longer.

 

Schwarber is horrible defensively...far worse than Garcia.

Schwarber's weight has to be a concern for any National league team because there is no DH there.

Schwarber looks like a tank.

 

 

When you say literally all numbers, which ones are you referring to ? Schwarber is a .240 hitter since he has been in the league but did hit a lot of home runs last season.

 

I'm seeing a lot of downside to Schwarber because of his weight, his lack of speed, and the serious knee injury he sustained. Cubs gave up on him as a catcher and soon his defensive liabilities might be exposed in the outfield like they were during the 2015 playoffs.

 

I think the comparison is instructive for demonstrating how perceptions sometimes precede reality and stats/ facts.

 

 

 

 

[chw42]

Any offensive or defensive stats to back up some of the opinions here?

 

Oh I don't know, maybe the fact that Schwarber has a career OPS well above .800 while Avi's is more than 100 points lower.

 

Both aren't good defenders, but Schwarber's shown that he can hit and hit pretty well. Book is still out on Avi, but he sure as hell isn't anywhere close to Schwarber.

[Rowand44]

Schwarber is horrible defensively...far worse than Garcia.

Schwarber's weight has to be a concern for any National league team because there is no DH there.

Schwarber looks like a tank.

 

 

When you say literally all numbers, which ones are you referring to ? Schwarber is a .240 hitter since he has been in the league but did hit a lot of home runs last season.

 

I'm seeing a lot of downside to Schwarber because of his weight, his lack of speed, and the serious knee injury he sustained. Cubs gave up on him as a catcher and soon his defensive liabilities might be exposed in the outfield like they were during the 2015 playoffs.

 

I think the comparison is instructive for demonstrating how perceptions sometimes precede reality and stats/ facts.

There's no weird perception vs. stat/facts here because perception is reality in this case.

 

Schwarber so far in the major leagues has a career .825 ops, 126 ops+, and 128 wRC+. Avi has a career .709 ops, 97 ops+ and 93 wRC+.

 

Schwarber put up a 1.042 ops in the minors, Avi put up a .738 ops in the minors.

 

Numbers will tell you that Schwarber isn't far worse than Garcia defensively but they will tell you they both currently suck. Schwarber has played about 60 games in his life out there and Avi has played years and years out there and isn't getting any better. Even if you think Schwarber is always going to be a bad outfielder it stands to reason he's going to improve at least a little bit.

 

I guess we can throw in Schwarber's awesome post season numbers but I'm not going to use a 14 game sample size to make a point which is funny considering that small of a sample size is why we're having this conversation to begin with.

 

So to summarize, Schwarber has outproduced Avi at every level and when I say outproduced, he's destroyed his numbers at every level, he's about 2 years younger, is under contract for a few more years but you wouldn't trade Avi for Kyle because you think he's fat. Got it.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Rowand44

[tray]

There's no weird perception vs. stat/facts here because perception is reality in this case.

Numbers will tell you that Schwarber isn't far worse than Garcia defensively but they will tell you they both currently suck. Schwarber has played about 60 games in his life out there and Avi has played years and years out there and isn't getting any better. Even if you think Schwarber is always going to be a bad outfielder it stands to reason he's going to improve at least a little bit.

 

I guess we can throw in Schwarber's awesome post season numbers but I'm not going to use a 14 game sample size to make a point which is funny considering that small of a sample size is why we're having this conversation to begin with.

 

So to summarize, Schwarber has outproduced Avi at every level and when I say outproduced, he's destroyed his numbers at every level, he's about 2 years younger, is under contract for a few more years but you wouldn't trade Avi for Kyle because you think he's fat. Got it.

 

Avi Garcia is much faster this season because of weight loss and he was always much faster than Schwarber. Schwabby has a surgically repaired knee, and yes, his weight coupled with that leg injury is a majaor consideration when it comes to mobility and speed.

 

Schwabby will be a man without a defensive position, which means he will become a DH in all likelihood.

 

 

Woah....bang, bang bang,,, Avi just Crushed a 3 run bomb. Speaking of the devil! My man!