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SSS Theater: Avi Garcia


chitownsportsfan

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Some interesting stats, from which you can drawn your own conclusions:

 

The Sox have compiled the League's worst offensive stats: AVG .219 OBP .281 SLG .359 OPS .641

While Avi has produced the following League leading stats: AVG .440 OBP .481 SLG .680 OPS 1.161

Edited by Lillian
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 19, 2017 -> 10:59 AM)
Wow. Apparently the heroin epidemic has hit Soxtalk. Extending Avi? Trading Avi for Schwarber?

 

Step one is admitting you have a problem. Get help.

 

Drawing conclusions about a player less than a month into the season is extremely foolish

 

For example Mat Latos was excellent in April in 2016, but awfuyl in May leading to the Sox DFA'ing him

 

Garcia looks promising so far, but I need to see another solid 1-2 months of production before we can make any determination that this isn't just a crazy hot streak

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Apr 19, 2017 -> 12:30 PM)
Drawing conclusions about a player less than a month into the season is extremely foolish

 

For example Mat Latos was excellent in April in 2016, but awfuyl in May leading to the Sox DFA'ing him

 

Garcia looks promising so far, but I need to see another solid 1-2 months of production before we can make any determination that this isn't just a crazy hot streak

The early bird gets the worm. Do you really think Avi will tail off?

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LOL How Avi has become a must watch at bat is just unbelievable. What kind of bizarre world are we living in with the Bulls up 2-0, the Hawks down 3-0, and Avi leading a second place whitesox team?

 

These things will all come back to reality eventually(maybe not the Hawks) but hey its why we love sports.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 19, 2017 -> 12:03 PM)
Chuck Garfien‏Verified account @ChuckGarfien 3h3 hours ago How about this Avisail Garcia slash line with runners in scoring position so far---.545/.615/1.273. #WhiteSox

Last year when people would ask about anything Avi did right I made sure to point out he was one of the best Sox hitters with RISP. If he took that approach and applied it to all his AB's he may have found something.

 

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Avi has now passed the 70 PA threshold for K rate. He's at 23.5%. A good sign but he needs to continue to hit for power. His iso is dropping quickly and if you normalize his BABIP down to a more reasonable .340 instead of .457 his slash line goes down basically to his career stats.

 

Frankly, looking at his stats this week, I don't see much room for optimism that he has really turned a corner.

 

That said, defensively he's been mediocre so far, instead of god awful, so that's a bonus.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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Fangraphs ain't optimistic.

 

Avisail Garcia | Chicago White Sox | .373/.420/.600 with 4 HR, 0 SB, 17 RBI, and 13 R in 81 PA

 

  • Hasn’t shown major skill changes (22% K& is slightly better, but 17% SwStr% is flat)
  • That SwStr% is 4th-highest in the league
  • 7% BB rate is actually down from last year’s 8%
  • Pitchers are getting ahead even more often w/73% F-Strike% (5th-highest)
  • Still chasing too much with 39% O-Swing slotting 22nd in league and equal to 2016 (13th-worst)
  • Getting more flyballs, but still only 28%
  • Pulling the ball a lot more at a career-high 44%
  • Riding a .471 BABIP & career-best 20% HR/FB

OUTLOOK: It seems like Garcia is simply on a hot streak. There are no discernible skill improvements or approach changes behind the run. He might be selling out for more power a bit with the Pull rate, but that’s about all you can hang onto as a change. Looking at a .255 AVG/16 HR/5 SB bottom line. That means he’d hit about .235 the rest of the way if he puts up 550 at-bats. Sell… for anything.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-early...prises-hitters/

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 25, 2017 -> 01:25 PM)
Avi has now passed the 70 PA threshold for K rate. He's at 23.5%. A good sign but he needs to continue to hit for power. His iso is dropping quickly and if you normalize his BABIP down to a more reasonable .340 instead of .457 his slash line goes down basically to his career stats.

 

Frankly, looking at his stats this week, I don't see much room for optimism that he has really turned a corner.

 

That said, defensively he's been mediocre so far, instead of god awful, so that's a bonus.

 

Agreed. He'll come back down to earth eventually. His BABIP was like .470 before yesterday's game.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 27, 2017 -> 02:58 AM)
Fangraphs ain't optimistic.

 

Yeah, I went to go look at the % increase in hard hit, line drives per last year, etc. It's all 4-5%. That's not bad, over the course of the year you'd expect that to be a better and more powerful offensive player, but it's not a dramatic difference unfortunately, a lot of it looks similar to 2015.

 

The only thing is he is doing this despite getting fed more sinkers and sliders, and still managing to improve his LD%.

 

I don't know. There may still be something here, maybe he does get to an .800 OPS.

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QUOTE (reiks12 @ Apr 27, 2017 -> 09:32 AM)
Avi is hitting ball harder this year no? His home runs and doubles have been hit extremely well while in the past they all looked like cheapies

 

Yes, just not at a significant increase over previous years.

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Those who spend more time criticizing the White Sox than watching them might not have noticed that Avi has improved markedly as a hitter and as a fielder. Part of his improvement is due to substantial weight loss and physical conditioning.

Avi has made adjustments at the plate with his approach. He is taking more pitches that are away and outside the strike zone. That has made pitchers throw him more pitches in the strike zone after they get down in the count.

I don't know what the exit velocity is on Avi's hone runs but that missile he launched to center fired yesterday was one of the longest home runs I have seen to that part of the ballpark in a few years. He is waiting on pitches and watching the ball until contact. It has been impressive thus far.

 

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QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Apr 27, 2017 -> 11:07 AM)
I get it. hahahaha. omg so funny!

 

It's not supposed to be funny, it's highlighting that the audience your describing doesn't exist.

 

All the things you wrote seem like they are true, but they've seemed like they've been true before with Avi over certain stretches. It's not clear that he has actually turned a corner, and people being skeptical about it is warranted considering he was bad for his first 2.5 years as a big leaguer.

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 27, 2017 -> 09:57 AM)
We have seen Avi get hot before, exactly like this. There is not many reasons to believe this cat changed his stripes

 

Has he had a 20 game stretch where he has been THIS hot though? We're now 20 games in and Avi leads the AL in hitting, and is top 5 in OPS. I don't think he has suddenly become a star, but its pretty obvious that something has clicked. He is keeping is bat in the zone much longer. He isn't overswinging on every pitch. He is using the whole field. That, combined with his improved conditioning, and I think we have seen a young player that is finally coming into his own.

 

I don't expect Avi to lead the league in hitting, or heck, even eclipse .300 by seasons end, but it does seem like perhaps we finally have an above average contributor with the bat. Time will tell, and I remain a little skeptical, but I believe more and more everyday.

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