Update: Tilson BACK IN walking boot

[Two-Gun Pete]

So you'd give up on a guy because of a high K-rate just because it's his 4th pro season?

 

If you were GM, there would be lots of guys ages 19-21 leaving our system and then becoming MLB players with other teams...

Look, I leave open the door for Adolfo, IF he can drop the K-rate. I just reserve the right to not count on a K machine in Low A.

 

I can't believe this is so controversial to some. I'm interested in having good players in the system, so that they can make the Big club good one day. Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second:

 

Would you get as butt-hurt about a hypothetical 4th year player in low A with Adolfo's disappointing track record being called a "suspect?"

[caulfield12]

Look, I leave open the door for Adolfo, IF he can drop the K-rate. I just reserve the right to not count on a K machine in Low A.

 

I can't believe this is so controversial to some. I'm interested in having good players in the system, so that they can make the Big club good one day. Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second:

 

Would you get as butt-hurt about a hypothetical 4th year player in low A with Adolfo's disappointing track record being called a "suspect?"

 

You can't teach tools or raw power...it's like the former pitching phenom who gets opportunities with seven different organizations because he can touch 99.

 

There will always be 95% of prospects who have to prove themselves every year, and that other 5% that every scout keeps waiting on that long-expected breakout.

Edited July 1, 2017 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

Who is calling Adolfo a sure thing? He's a physically gifted young prospect finally putting those tools to work for the first time in his career. Yes, we all know the K rate is a huge concern, but that doesn't mean he's not a legit prospect. And the four years thing is absolute nonsense. He missed almost all of 2015 and about half of 2016. This is essentially his first full season of professional baseball. All things cosidered, this season has been a huge success so far.

[Jose Abreu]

Look, I leave open the door for Adolfo, IF he can drop the K-rate. I just reserve the right to not count on a K machine in Low A.

 

I can't believe this is so controversial to some. I'm interested in having good players in the system, so that they can make the Big club good one day. Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second:

 

Would you get as butt-hurt about a hypothetical 4th year player in low A with Adolfo's disappointing track record being called a "suspect?"

Adolfo is having a terrific season. The k-rate is the only real problem right now. There would be no reason to cut him for this one issue that can be fixed. You can't teach his power or his skills in the field, but you can teach him to cut down on strikeouts.

 

Regardless of his name/signing bonus, he's playing very well and any conversation about ridding of him because he strikes out too much (at age 20) is ridiculous.

[southsider2k5]

Look, I leave open the door for Adolfo, IF he can drop the K-rate. I just reserve the right to not count on a K machine in Low A.

 

I can't believe this is so controversial to some. I'm interested in having good players in the system, so that they can make the Big club good one day. Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second:

 

Would you get as butt-hurt about a hypothetical 4th year player in low A with Adolfo's disappointing track record being called a "suspect?"

 

I can't believe that you are treating him like a normal 4th year player in A ball. He was a true 17 year old in rookie ball for his first season. Injuries have also held him back to the point where he had about a seasons worth of ABs during those first three seasons. He is a raw 21 year old in A ball. There is nothing wrong with that unless you frame things to look worse than the actually are. He is also a guy who has made a significant leap this season. Instead of getting hurt feeling everytime someone points out the truth to you on an overreaction, maybe just learn from it and move on?

[Two-Gun Pete]

You can't teach tools or raw power...it's like the former pitching phenom who gets opportunities with seven different organizations because he can touch 99.

And his tools mean little, if he cannot reduce the strikeouts, and make contact at a greater rate.

 

There are PILES of suspects with "raw power" in this and in other orgs that amounted to nothing.

 

Who is calling Adolfo a sure thing? He's a physically gifted young prospect finally putting those tools to work for the first time in his career. Yes, we all know the K rate is a huge concern, but that doesn't mean he's not a legit prospect. And the four years thing is absolute nonsense. He missed almost all of 2015 and about half of 2016. This is essentially his first full season of professional baseball. All things cosidered, this season has been a huge success so far.

Again, take away the name and the signing bonus. If any other player had had his middling career hereto fore, that player would be looked at as a suspect, not a prospect.

 

Again, I am hopeful that he makes it, but in reality, most farmhands do not. And even fewer in low A with a high K rate make it, regardless of whatever "tools" a player is purported to possess.

 

I can't believe that you are treating him like a normal 4th year player in A ball. He was a true 17 year old in rookie ball for his first season. Injuries have also held him back to the point where he had about a seasons worth of ABs during those first three seasons. He is a raw 21 year old in A ball. There is nothing wrong with that unless you frame things to look worse than the actually are. He is also a guy who has made a significant leap this season. Instead of getting hurt feeling everytime someone points out the truth to you on an overreaction, maybe just learn from it and move on?

No one's hurt here.

 

Adolfo simply isn't a prospect until he can drop the K rate.

 

That has always been my position with him. Actually, I regarded him as a suspect until he can successfully complete a season without a major injury, AND that he can cut the K rate down. On the former, I'll agree: 2017 has been a success for him; on the latter, we'll see.

 

That said, there is plenty of research that indicates that K-rates matter greatly in prospects. Unsurprisingly, prospects with high K rates bust the most. This is especially true in prospects that have high K rates in the lower minors, as in Adolfo's case.

 

Do you disagree? If so, feel free to counter the research that shows that high K-rates tend to lead prospects to bust. Or the observations of plenty of Sox farmhands that busted due to a high K rate, coupled with "tools" or "athleticism" or "raw power."

 

I've got an open mind, and an honest hope that each and every Sox farmhand makes it to Cooperstown. [Even though I know that most won't make it.]

Edited July 2, 2017 by Two-Gun Pete

[caulfield12]

Is he a productive hitter at given K rate?

 

Obviously for the level he's at, the answer is yes. The next two levels up will be the real challenge. Where Hawkins and Mitchell essentially hit a brick wall.

[southsider2k5]

And his tools mean little, if he cannot reduce the strikeouts, and make contact at a greater rate.

 

There are PILES of suspects with "raw power" in this and in other orgs that amounted to nothing.

 

 

Again, take away the name and the signing bonus. If any other player had had his middling career hereto fore, that player would be looked at as a suspect, not a prospect.

 

Again, I am hopeful that he makes it, but in reality, most farmhands do not. And even fewer in low A with a high K rate make it, regardless of whatever "tools" a player is purported to possess.

 

 

No one's hurt here.

 

Adolfo simply isn't a prospect until he can drop the K rate.

 

That has always been my position with him. Actually, I regarded him as a suspect until he can successfully complete a season without a major injury, AND that he can cut the K rate down. On the former, I'll agree: 2017 has been a success for him; on the latter, we'll see.

 

That said, there is plenty of research that indicates that K-rates matter greatly in prospects. Unsurprisingly, prospects with high K rates bust the most. This is especially true in prospects that have high K rates in the lower minors, as in Adolfo's case.

 

Do you disagree? If so, feel free to counter the research that shows that high K-rates tend to lead prospects to bust. Or the observations of plenty of Sox farmhands that busted due to a high K rate, coupled with "tools" or "athleticism" or "raw power."

 

I've got an open mind, and an honest hope that each and every Sox farmhand makes it to Cooperstown. [Even though I know that most won't make it.]

 

Let's see your research then.

[GreenSox]

Not to hijack, but does anyone know the status of the young CF who was having a good year?

L Garcia?

[Quin]

Not to hijack, but does anyone know the status of the young CF who was having a good year?

L Garcia?

 

The same L. Garcia you've bemoaned trading Alex Rios for for years.

 

That you think the last 2 drafts have been good is an opinion, not a fact. How's Fulmer looking, in your opinion? We're investing internationally? The Cubs, RedSox etc invest. I believe Hahn himself said that he's paying a whopping one big bonus. That's not an investment - that's doing the minimum.

But you asked for facts:

4 players for 1 season of Shark

A top 100, a CF who raked (possible NL rookie of year) and another prospect for 2 years of Frazier. Hopefully Frazier can hit .220

Two pitching prospects for sub .700 OPS Lawrie (despite having promising youths Sanchez and Saladino on the roster).

Signed Keppinger, Latos, Rollins, and Bonificaio ($3 mill!!!!) all of whom had to be DFAd. Also signed Beckham for $2 million

Gave De Aza and Thornton away for nothing; both had productive years left.

Traded Rios for Leury Garcia; Rios helped the Royals win he Worlds Series.

Signed Adam Laroche. Horrible, then put on a clownact, and Hahn's boss had to step in and fix the clubhouse.

Signed Albers, and Duke, both of whom have been mediocre

Robertson has done his job.

Signed Melky Cabrera - okay this year, terrible last year; can't play defense

Kept Ventura and Cooper around

Traded for Shields

 

63, 73, and 76 wins under his leadership. 1 post-season in a decade from he and Williams.

 

Facts

Of course, before most of that, he got Eaton and Abreu. Then he decided that declining veterans were the better use of resources.

 

[turnin' two]

Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second:

 

Seems to me that you are holding his name and signing bonus against him. If you take that away, you have the youngest player on his team, who is 2nd on his team in R, 4th in H, 1st in 2B, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 1st in TB, 2nd in SLG, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in AVG, and 2nd in OPS.

 

All around he has been the best hitter on Kanny, except for maybe Zavala, and that is debatable. And he is 3 years or so younger than most of his teammates. That to me, looks like a pretty good prospect with or without a name attached.

Edited July 2, 2017 by turnin' two

[Eminor3rd]

Adolfo simply isn't a prospect until he can drop the K rate.

 

I think that perhaps, friend, you are mistaken as to what the word "prospect" means.

 

Perhaps what you mean to say is that Adolfo simply won't be an MLB player until he can drop his K rate. This is reasonable and very probably true. However, the fact that he is an undeniably physically gifted and very young man who is succeeding in many ways despite a high K rate that results from a very raw approach means that he very much IS a prospect. Currently.

 

If you're looking to the minor league system and expecting to find it full of prospects without flaws, that simply need time to grow bigger in order to step right into an MLB lineup and produce, you are ever bound to be disappointed. The object of a rebuild can not realistically be to acquire 10 Bryce Harpers, but it can certainly be to acquire 100 Micker Adolfo's, from which 10 MLB players will rise.

[southsider2k5]

Seems to me that you are holding his name and signing bonus against him. If you take that away, you have the youngest player on his team, who is 2nd on his team in R, 4th in H, 1st in 2B, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 1st in TB, 2nd in SLG, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in AVG, and 2nd in OPS.

 

All around he has been the best hitter on Kanny, except for maybe Zavala, and that is debatable. And he is 3 years or so younger than most of his teammates. That to me, looks like a pretty good prospect with or without a name attached.

 

NIcely done.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Let's see your research then.

Not really "my" research, but here, I'll Google that for you:

 

https://www.beyondtheb...rates-prospects

 

From the article:

 

"...only 13% of high K prospects succeeded without a high walk rate, 76% busted without one..."

 

For this article, a high K rate was defined as being >22%, whereas a high walk rate was defined as being >11%.

 

We can go back-and-forth about "tools," or his age, or whatever perceived extenuating excuses one may have for him. The fact remains that Adolfo has a 30% k rate in low A, which suggests that he has scant chances of making it.

 

I'll leave it at this:

 

As a Sox fan, I hope he proves the numbers wrong, but it ain't looking good for him.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Two-Gun Pete

[turnin' two]

Not really "my" research, but here, I'll Google that for you:

 

https://www.beyondtheb...rates-prospects

 

From the article:

 

"...only 13% of high K prospects succeeded without a high walk rate, 76% busted without one..."

 

Umm, well that doesn't really tell you anything. How does that number compare to the average? Doesn't seem like it would be too much different.

[southsider2k5]

Not really "my" research, but here, I'll Google that for you:

 

https://www.beyondtheb...rates-prospects

 

From the article:

 

"...only 13% of high K prospects succeeded without a high walk rate, 76% busted without one..."

 

For this article, a high K rate was defined as being >22%, whereas a high walk rate was defined as being >11%.

 

We can go back-and-forth about "tools," or his age, or whatever perceived extenuating excuses one may have for him. The fact remains that Adolfo has a 30% k rate in low A, which suggests that he has scant chances of making it.

 

I'll leave it at this:

 

As a Sox fan, I hope he proves the numbers wrong, but it ain't looking good for him.

 

Versus the odds of a typical prospect succeeding at 21%, and not just a cherry picked one with the most ideal of circumstances as was pointed out here? I think the big difference here is that your typical high K strike out guy doesn't always come with 80 potential power, and even less start to realize it.

 

Again, you are also missing out that the career of Micker Adolfo contains a ton of asterisks that almost all players don't have. Most aren't playing North American professional baseball at age 17. Most don't see enough injuries in three seasons to hold them to less than a seasons worth of ABs. Most are being signed at age 16 and then thrust into a different country to start new. All but one aren't playing as the youngest in their league. As was pointed out prior, he has made huge progress this year, and his K rate has dropped by a large amount season over season.

 

If I had to put a subcategory into this table, I would bet money that the high K guys who did succeed were most typically also high power guys, and even if you look at the list in there, I see a whole of 60 to 80 power guys.

 

It is also worth pointing out in the 4 years since this article was written, the K rate of major league also has accelerated greatly since then, and might even have outdated this research.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Versus the odds of a typical prospect succeeding at 21%, and not just a cherry picked one with the most ideal of circumstances as was pointed out here?

 

 

It is also worth pointing out in the 4 years since this article was written, the K rate of major league also has accelerated greatly since then, and might even have outdated this research.

Couple things that I'd like to add:

 

1. You said "typical" prospect. However, the research looked into the careers of position players that appeared in a Top 100/Top 150 list. This is actually the oposite of a "Cherry picked" sample, as you suggested. Adolfo has to look up about ~100 spots or so before he sniffs a Top 100 list.

 

Because of this, his likelihood of busting is Higher, not lower.

 

2. You cite 21% as a success rate, but again, that's for all (high OR low OR average K rate) among Top 100 position players. When you further filter to Adolfo"s cohort (again, the exact opposite of "cherry picking ") the success rate (if he were in a Top 100 list, which he isn't ) is a mere 13%. For a non-Top 100 type, the success rate is likely less.

 

Lastly, I agree that the research is dated. But, I challenge you to find a study that shows that it is a GOOD THING for a prospect to have a high K rate & low BB rate.

 

If we have subsequent research that shows the opposite of this one, then I'll agree that this study should be disregarded.

 

Thanks for disagreeing, without being disagreeable. And if you have contrary research, Id love to see it.

 

[southsider2k5]

Couple things that I'd like to add:

 

1. You said "typical" prospect. However, the research looked into the careers of position players that appeared in a Top 100/Top 150 list. This is actually the oposite of a "Cherry picked" sample, as you suggested. Adolfo has to look up about ~100 spots or so before he sniffs a Top 100 list.

 

Because of this, his likelihood of busting is Higher, not lower.

 

2. You cite 21% as a success rate, but again, that's for all (high OR low OR average K rate) among Top 100 position players. When you further filter to Adolfo"s cohort (again, the exact opposite of "cherry picking ") the success rate (if he were in a Top 100 list, which he isn't ) is a mere 13%. For a non-Top 100 type, the success rate is likely less.

 

Lastly, I agree that the research is dated. But, I challenge you to find a study that shows that it is a GOOD THING for a prospect to have a high K rate & low BB rate.

 

If we have subsequent research that shows the opposite of this one, then I'll agree that this study should be disregarded.

 

Thanks for disagreeing, without being disagreeable. And if you have contrary research, Id love to see it.

 

When you look at that list of players, it screams the exact sorts of players that Micker Adolfo projects to be if he reaches his ceiling. One thing that is good for a player to have is a 70-80 power rating potential.

 

That list probably also doesn't contain any other players who are playing through Adolfo's specific circumstances of being perpetually the youngest player in his league, and for missing large chunks of time due to injury.

[Eminor3rd]

Couple things that I'd like to add:

 

1. You said "typical" prospect. However, the research looked into the careers of position players that appeared in a Top 100/Top 150 list. This is actually the oposite of a "Cherry picked" sample, as you suggested. Adolfo has to look up about ~100 spots or so before he sniffs a Top 100 list.

 

Because of this, his likelihood of busting is Higher, not lower.

 

2. You cite 21% as a success rate, but again, that's for all (high OR low OR average K rate) among Top 100 position players. When you further filter to Adolfo"s cohort (again, the exact opposite of "cherry picking ") the success rate (if he were in a Top 100 list, which he isn't ) is a mere 13%. For a non-Top 100 type, the success rate is likely less.

 

Lastly, I agree that the research is dated. But, I challenge you to find a study that shows that it is a GOOD THING for a prospect to have a high K rate & low BB rate.

 

If we have subsequent research that shows the opposite of this one, then I'll agree that this study should be disregarded.

 

Thanks for disagreeing, without being disagreeable. And if you have contrary research, Id love to see it.

 

What are you trying to accomplish with this argument? It's okay to think Adolfo is an overrated prospect, but you seem to be arguing that we should just release him immediately. Why? We all understand that he has swing and miss issues. We're hoping that he corrects them around the time he can legally drink.

[Wanne]

What are you trying to accomplish with this argument? It's okay to think Adolfo is an overrated prospect, but you seem to be arguing that we should just release him immediately. Why? We all understand that he has swing and miss issues. We're hoping that he corrects them around the time he can legally drink.

 

Exactly. Idiotic argument honestly. The kid is 20 years old...with massive upside. But by all means...lets focus on one nitpickyass thing...and give up on him lol. Geezus...

[Quin]

What are you trying to accomplish with this argument? It's okay to think Adolfo is an overrated prospect, but you seem to be arguing that we should just release him immediately. Why? We all understand that he has swing and miss issues. We're hoping that he corrects them around the time he can legally drink.

 

Cause having an OF of Robert and Adolfo reaching their ceilings sounds boring.