Sign Avi to a long term contract?

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Well if he really is this good for the next couple of years, when he becomes a free agent more than likely some other team will outbid the Sox.

[iamshack]

Went back in time to see the idea that Avi has been hot before. Right now he is hitting .357 with a 1.010 OPS. I actually went back and looked at his splits by month. The guy has had one other month in his career outside of 2017 where he hit over .350. That was in August of 2013 where he hit .354, but he only OPS'd .879. Until 2017 he had zero months over .900 OPS if he played 15 or more games.

 

This is by far his single longest and sustained period of success in his entire career, and it is almost at two months worth now.

I believe I can see a serious difference in his approach. He honestly appears to have pitch recognition now. He has never appeared to have that before.

 

It is as if he can now lay off outside breaking s*** he never could before. That has allowed him to focus on mostly just balls in the zone, which he is using his considerable talent to mash now.

 

This is not just a hot streak - this is a breakthrough.

 

As someone who has never been a believer is Avi, I am buying what he is selling now.

 

 

[Lillian]

The only thing that he could still improve upon is his ability to draw more bases on balls. I suspect that teams will begin to more frequently pitch around him and if he can take his walks, then his offensive game will be complete. During last nights romp in Seattle, Hawk said that Avi is the best 5 tool talent that the Sox have had, in his entire career, in the booth.

Edited May 21, 2017 by Lillian

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

The only thing that he could still improve upon is his ability to draw more bases on balls. I suspect that teams will begin to more frequently pitch around him and if he can take his walks, then his offensive game will be complete. During last nights romp in Seattle, Hawk said that Avi is the best 5 tool talent that the Sox have had, in his entire career, in the booth.

To his credit, Hawk said this last year when Avi was struggling. I thought he was nuts, lol.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm thrilled that Avi is off to a hot start.

 

However, he's not really doing ANYTHING differently. He's still swinging at the same insane amount of pitches out of the zone (RIGHT on line with his career number), he's just made more contact with those pitches. As a result, his strikeout rate is down a couple notches, but so is his walk rate.

 

Now, I'm not saying more contact might not be a good thing. The best possible explanation is that he's cut down his swing to focus more on contact and allowed his natural strength to carry the ball. I hope that's it. But when you break down his peripherals and see nothing changed but the contact rate and then see that he's still somehow running a .409 BABIP, it looks very dangerous.

 

The HR/FB rate is up too, but do we have any evidence of swing changes to suggest that it's sustainable? Asking for real. It doesn't LOOK different to me, but it might be.

 

I'm still not sold. I know, I know, I'm always the Avi hater. But by all indications, this LOOKS like a nice long hot streak that may have been inevitable given enough PAs to such an athletically gifted player. As always, I hope I'm wrong.

[iamshack]

I'm thrilled that Avi is off to a hot start.

 

However, he's not really doing ANYTHING differently. He's still swinging at the same insane amount of pitches out of the zone (RIGHT on line with his career number), he's just made more contact with those pitches. As a result, his strikeout rate is down a couple notches, but so is his walk rate.

 

Now, I'm not saying more contact might not be a good thing. The best possible explanation is that he's cut down his swing to focus more on contact and allowed his natural strength to carry the ball. I hope that's it. But when you break down his peripherals and see nothing changed but the contact rate and then see that he's still somehow running a .409 BABIP, it looks very dangerous.

 

The HR/FB rate is up too, but do we have any evidence of swing changes to suggest that it's sustainable? Asking for real. It doesn't LOOK different to me, but it might be.

 

I'm still not sold. I know, I know, I'm always the Avi hater. But by all indications, this LOOKS like a nice long hot streak that may have been inevitable given enough PAs to such an athletically gifted player. As always, I hope I'm wrong.

Have you watched his PAs?

[LittleHurt05]

The only thing that he could still improve upon is his ability to draw more bases on balls. I suspect that teams will begin to more frequently pitch around him and if he can take his walks, then his offensive game will be complete. During last nights romp in Seattle, Hawk said that Avi is the best 5 tool talent that the Sox have had, in his entire career, in the booth.

 

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd take George Kenneth Griffey Jr. and his 5 tool talents over Avi anyday.

[Dick Allen]

I'm thrilled that Avi is off to a hot start.

 

However, he's not really doing ANYTHING differently. He's still swinging at the same insane amount of pitches out of the zone (RIGHT on line with his career number), he's just made more contact with those pitches. As a result, his strikeout rate is down a couple notches, but so is his walk rate.

 

Now, I'm not saying more contact might not be a good thing. The best possible explanation is that he's cut down his swing to focus more on contact and allowed his natural strength to carry the ball. I hope that's it. But when you break down his peripherals and see nothing changed but the contact rate and then see that he's still somehow running a .409 BABIP, it looks very dangerous.

 

The HR/FB rate is up too, but do we have any evidence of swing changes to suggest that it's sustainable? Asking for real. It doesn't LOOK different to me, but it might be.

 

I'm still not sold. I know, I know, I'm always the Avi hater. But by all indications, this LOOKS like a nice long hot streak that may have been inevitable given enough PAs to such an athletically gifted player. As always, I hope I'm wrong.

It very well could be, but if a bad player can be this good for 40 games, he is worth keeping around. To me getting the ball in the air can make all the difference. his BABIP is due to come down, but his is usually pretty high. He isn't going to hit .350, and his walk rate never was Tim Anderson, but I am starting to think he isn't going to hit .255 with 15 homers like Fangraphs said he would even after his hot start.

 

The more success he has, the more confident he gets, and he probably starts laying off more pitches, thinking he is good enough to take a strike or two.

 

Maybe he falls apart. We have seen it before. I hope he makes it. He works hard, he plays hard. He didn't deserve the hatred thrown his way in the past. Most guys suck. It is a hard game.

 

You look at JD Martinez. His walk rate his k rate didn't change much after he went to Detroit, but in Houston his numbers were a lot like Avi's, and they suddenly changed with more hits and power. maybe the same thing.

Edited May 22, 2017 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd take George Kenneth Griffey Jr. and his 5 tool talents over Avi anyday.

I think he meant a prospect.

[SoxAce]

I think he meant a prospect.

Not to mention a guy who wasn't way past his prime.

 

[Lillian]

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd take George Kenneth Griffey Jr. and his 5 tool talents over Avi anyday.

 

Hawk was not quoted as having said that Avi is the best 5 too player he has ever seen. What he said was; "Avi is the best 5 tool prospect that the Sox have had", in Hawk's many years with the organization. He went on to list some of the outstanding 5 tool prospects, such as Daryl Boston, Kenny Williams and Brian Anderson. He forgot to mention Joe Borchard, but that was another one, whom I sure that he would include in that group.

[LittleHurt05]

I think he meant a prospect.

 

I think Hawk uses "best ever" far too liberally

[Eminor3rd]

Have you watched his PAs?

 

Honestly only about a third of them. Much fewer than I'm used to, but I'm working full season ball now From what I've seen, he's been making noticeably better contact on the exact same pitches, and has had his share of lean-over and ducksnort into short right field hits as well. But I've missed a lot.

 

It very well could be, but if a bad player can be this good for 40 games, he is worth keeping around. To me getting the ball in the air can make all the difference. his BABIP is due to come down, but his is usually pretty high. He isn't going to hit .350, and his walk rate never was Tim Anderson, but I am starting to think he isn't going to hit .255 with 15 homers like Fangraphs said he would even after his hot start.

 

The more success he has, the more confident he gets, and he probably starts laying off more pitches, thinking he is good enough to take a strike or two.

 

Maybe he falls apart. We have seen it before. I hope he makes it. He works hard, he plays hard. He didn't deserve the hatred thrown his way in the past. Most guys suck. It is a hard game.

 

You look at JD Martinez. His walk rate his k rate didn't change much after he went to Detroit, but in Houston his numbers were a lot like Avi's, and they suddenly changed with more hits and power. maybe the same thing.

 

I agree totally he's worth keeping around this year. I didn't when we were trying to compete the past couple, but in a rebuilding year with no one knocking down the door, sure. The upside remains tremendous, and now the waiting costs nothing.

 

The thing with JD Martinez is that he was one of the first guys to actually declare that he was going to change his approach (from "hit it up the middle" to "f*** it I'm going to swing for the fences every time") and then actually have his changes corroborated by the Statcast stuff (increased launch angle, exit velocity, etc.). The ironic thing is that Avi actually seems like a REALLY GOOD candidate to do exactly that, in terms of his toolset. If he cools down and looks like the same old guy, I actually really hope they convince him to try it. He would have to finally lay off bad pitches, but imagine if he could unlock the raw power.

 

Again, if he keeps doing what he's doing somehow, it's a moot point. If he really has somehow learned to focus on cleaner contact and can keep the EB% up, his numbers may actually be able to survive a 60-80 point BABIP drop and still leave him an average-to-slightly-above MLB regular.

Edited May 22, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[Lillian]

Of course, he is not going to keep up this pace. After all, in addition to hitting .350, he is also on pace to have 80 extra base hits, and drive in 136 runs.

That would put him in an elite class, with Trout and Harper. I doubt that even the most optimistic of us would expect that. However, If he can hit around .300

with 30 doubles and 30 homers, while driving in about 100 runs, he would be an extremely valuable offensive contributor. That's my hope, and this first 1/4 of the season is certainly encouraging.

[SoxAce]

He forgot to mention Joe Borchard, but that was another one, whom I sure that he would include in that group.

 

Eh.. Borchard was never a speedster/base stealer at any point as a prospect.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm thrilled that Avi is off to a hot start.

 

However, he's not really doing ANYTHING differently. He's still swinging at the same insane amount of pitches out of the zone (RIGHT on line with his career number), he's just made more contact with those pitches. As a result, his strikeout rate is down a couple notches, but so is his walk rate.

 

Now, I'm not saying more contact might not be a good thing. The best possible explanation is that he's cut down his swing to focus more on contact and allowed his natural strength to carry the ball. I hope that's it. But when you break down his peripherals and see nothing changed but the contact rate and then see that he's still somehow running a .409 BABIP, it looks very dangerous.

 

The HR/FB rate is up too, but do we have any evidence of swing changes to suggest that it's sustainable? Asking for real. It doesn't LOOK different to me, but it might be.

 

I'm still not sold. I know, I know, I'm always the Avi hater. But by all indications, this LOOKS like a nice long hot streak that may have been inevitable given enough PAs to such an athletically gifted player. As always, I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

He's hitting fastballs for one.

 

 

I honestly don't know how the stat is quantified or if its even worth looking at, but when looking at wFB Pitch Value there is a world of difference. Avi never had a positive rating in that category, this year he 7th in the league.

 

One of the critiques has always been he can't catch up with the fastball, and thus far it appears that has changed.

Edited May 22, 2017 by scs787

[Lillian]

Eh.. Borchard was never a speedster/base stealer at any point as a prospect.

 

Borchard wasn't a base stealing threat, but I seem to remember that he did have good foot speed, much like Avi. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Wasn't he signed as a center fielder?

[SoxAce]

Borchard wasn't a base stealing threat, but I seem to remember that he did have good foot speed, much like Avi. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Wasn't he signed as a center fielder?

 

He was, but played only about 120 more games there in the minors than in RF. He wasn't exactly elite out there either. Hawk's comments about Avi are asinine. Mike Cameron was more of a 5 tool player than Avi and he had a questionable hit tool.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Hawk was not quoted as having said that Avi is the best 5 too player he has ever seen. What he said was; "Avi is the best 5 tool prospect that the Sox have had", in Hawk's many years with the organization. He went on to list some of the outstanding 5 tool prospects, such as Daryl Boston, Kenny Williams and Brian Anderson. He forgot to mention Joe Borchard, but that was another one, whom I sure that he would include in that group.

Borchard didn't have outstanding foot speed.

[Eminor3rd]

He's hitting fastballs for one.

 

 

I honestly don't know how the stat is quantified or if its even worth looking at, but when looking at wFB Pitch Value there is a world of difference. Avi never had a positive rating in that category, this year he 7th in the league.

 

One of the critiques has always been he can't catch up with the fastball, and thus far it appears that has changed.

 

Good observation

[southsider2k5]

Have you watched his PAs?

 

Having watched an OK amount of his ABs this year, the ball it just coming off of his bat HARD this year. I don't know if that has translated into higher exit velocity, or if his change in swing plane has resulted in a higher amount of fly balls versus ground balls, but what I see through the eye test is a guy making a lot more hard contact.

[ptatc]

Borchard didn't have outstanding foot speed.

It was good enough to play a good CF. It may not have been outstanding but it was good enough to put in the "tool" category.

[bighurt574]

I'd keep Avi playing for his next contract for as long as humanly possible.

 

He seems like the type to mail it in once he gets a big deal.

[Jose Abreu]

I'd keep Avi playing for his next contract for as long as humanly possible.

 

He seems like the type to mail it in once he gets a big deal.

I would honestly say the exact opposite. There's not a harder worker on the team, and it's been that way since the day we traded for him.

[southsider2k5]

I would honestly say the exact opposite. There's not a harder worker on the team, and it's been that way since the day we traded for him.

 

Yep. He seems like the guy that is doing too much, versus too little.