White Sox have "set" Luis Robert market

[Rowand44]

how many of the other 27 clubs have gone 9 years since making the playoffs as well? How many have not won a World Series since 2005?

 

I guess you would include all of them in the culture of losing as well.

I'm with you for the most part but I wouldn't go down this rabbit hole ha. The Sox are one of like 3 teams iirc since 2005 to have only made the playoffs once. They're in some awful company.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I'm with you for the most part but I wouldn't go down this rabbit hole ha. The Sox are one of like 3 teams iirc since 2005 to have only made the playoffs once. They're in some awful company.

To be fair, I'd rather only make the playoffs once and win the World Series in said season than be like the Nationals or Dodgers.

[Dick Allen]

I'm with you for the most part but I wouldn't go down this rabbit hole ha. The Sox are one of like 3 teams iirc since 2005 to have only made the playoffs once. They're in some awful company.

It's bad, but if the White Sox made the WC a couple of times and lost the WC, kind of like Pittsburgh, I'm pretty sure the playoff appearance goal post would be moved by at least 2 people.

[Bob Sacamano]

To be fair, I'd rather only make the playoffs once and win the World Series in said season than be like the Nationals or Dodgers.

 

The one playoff appearance he is referring to is 08.

Edited April 21, 2017 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

My pet theory about the decline of the White Sox is they were not prepared for the sudden decline of vets in their 30s. They had so much success getting bounce backs and good play well into age 35-36 seasons, and when that went away, the bottom fell out fantastically. They weren't a team that could compete for prime age free agents, and did not have an intl presence or farm. I don't think they reckoned with the fact that their pro scouting framework no longer applied until very recently.

 

2000-2010 white sox success:

- Identifying major-league ready but blocked prospects

- Identifying cheap veterans

- Continued production from an aging core.

 

How many apply now?

[Rowand44]

To be fair, I'd rather only make the playoffs once and win the World Series in said season than be like the Nationals or Dodgers.

We didn't win the World Series in said season in this example. Like I said, I'm mostly in agreement with ptatc's overall point but the Sox have been a really, really bad organization since 05, there's not much of an argument there.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

The one playoff appearance he is referring to is 08.

Ah I see. I misread the post. But still, my point stands. I'd rather make the playoffs twice in 12 years with one of them being a World Series title than making it 5 times in that span with nothing significant to show for it.

[ChiSox59]

And the thread takes the inevitable turn to Jerry Reinsdorf culture of losing pissing match.

 

To be fair, any thread Thad Bosley posts in goes in that direction.

[Sleepy Harold]

Jesse Sanchez Article, no real new info, same interested teams covered, but hey it's new Edited April 21, 2017 by Sleepy Harold

[ptatc]

Jesse Sanchez Article, no real new info, same interested teams covered, but hey it's new

Back on topic......How much could the Sox offer without going into the penalty?

[Bob Sacamano]

Back on topic......How much could the Sox offer without going into the penalty?

 

Without knowing the exact numbers, I'm guessing only a couple mill.

 

Edit: just checked. We were allotted $2,973,500 for this period so even less than I guessed haha

 

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-...onus-pools.html

 

Edit 2: here is how much we have spent already:

Josue Guerrero, of, Dominican Republic (No. 33 prospect), $1.1 million.

Luis Mieses, of, Dominican Republic (No. 36 prospect), $428,000.

Anderson Comas, of, Dominican Republic (No. 37 prospect), $450,000.

 

These 3 didn't have amounts, so I'm guessing under $300k.

Lenyn Sosa, ss, Venezuela

Jenderson Caraballo, rhp, Venezuela

Anthony Coronado, of, Venezuela

Edited April 21, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Two-Gun Pete]

It's a fun argument when signing Viciedo, Ramirez and Abreu doesn't matter, but that also being high in final biddings for Soler and Tanaka also doesn't matter, because the point is don't you understand the white sox are cheap and you can't prove otherwise?

All of the successful int'l FAs cited here were either veteran players (Ramirez, Abreu) or were not highly-regarded by the industry (Viciedo).

 

All of the highly-desired and young int'l FAs that involved a competitve process to sign (Soler, Tanaka) ended up signing elsewhere.

 

Given that Robert seems to be the latter type of int'l FA (young, highly-regarded, and with many suitors), I expect Robert to sign elsewhere.

 

I don't believe it is a "cheapness" issue, so much as it is a risk-averse issue. And no where have I posted otherwise.

 

I'll guess the "we tried to sign Robert, but look at the other guys we signed" press conference will be on June 15th.

Edited April 21, 2017 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

The point you are missing is that he is correct. Most will fail. The odds of this player being a star in the MLB are slim. The key is not to spend wildly on all the FA prospects. The key is to evaluate them properly and determine the risk. Then you assign a price tag that you feel is acceptable for the risk. They did this with Viciedo and outbid other teams and it didn't workout.

 

They do need to take the risk at some point but they can't just go crazy on all of them.

No, I fully understand that prospects are an "asset class" with inherent downside risk. But then, most successful portfolios include some speculative holdings that could fail, but could also lift an entire household's fortunes by itself. Taking educated, & calculated risk is central to any successful enterprises strategy.

 

And again, while past performanceis no guarantee of future results, we have no precedent of a young, highly-regarded and highly-pursued int'l FA signing here. I don't believe it is as much about cheapness as it is about risk aversion.

 

After all, Abreu and Ramirez were pros for several years, & had performed reasonably well. That track record (in the eyes of this org) likely attenuated any downside risk in their eyes.

 

I would like to hope that this org will have changed their view on this, but I doubt it.

[bmags]

Without knowing the exact numbers, I'm guessing only a couple mill.

 

Edit: just checked. We were allotted $2,973,500 for this period so even less than I guessed haha

 

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mlb-...onus-pools.html

 

Edit 2: here is how much we have spent already:

Josue Guerrero, of, Dominican Republic (No. 33 prospect), $1.1 million.

Luis Mieses, of, Dominican Republic (No. 36 prospect), $428,000.

Anderson Comas, of, Dominican Republic (No. 37 prospect), $450,000.

 

These 3 didn't have amounts, so I'm guessing under $300k.

Lenyn Sosa, ss, Venezuela

Jenderson Caraballo, rhp, Venezuela

Anthony Coronado, of, Venezuela

 

We actually signed 20 players, most for basically nothing. Southsidesox says we have $1 million left.

 

So, if we offer 10 million (nice round numbers) we pay effectively $19mill.

 

Negligible, I think the total spend for FA classes is more important. When you are already paying $10 mill in tax another $30 mill can feel worse.

[Bob Sacamano]

We actually signed 20 players, most for basically nothing. Southsidesox says we have $1 million left.

 

So, if we offer 10 million (nice round numbers) we pay effectively $19mill.

 

Negligible, I think the total spend for FA classes is more important. When you are already paying $10 mill in tax another $30 mill can feel worse.

 

I'm assuming if a player signs for under $300k, it doesn't count towards the allotment. The math I did on the info I provided up top has us at the $1 million remaining.

[ptatc]

We actually signed 20 players, most for basically nothing. Southsidesox says we have $1 million left.

 

So, if we offer 10 million (nice round numbers) we pay effectively $19mill.

 

Negligible, I think the total spend for FA classes is more important. When you are already paying $10 mill in tax another $30 mill can feel worse.

If they have 1 million left, is there the 100% tax of all money after the 1 million? I can't find a good resource on the current system. Most of them have an analysis of the new system.

[Bob Sacamano]

If they have 1 million left, is there the 100% tax of all money after the 1 million? I can't find a good resource on the current system. Most of them have an analysis of the new system.

 

Yes all of the money past the $1 million would be taxed.

[ptatc]

Yes all of the money past the $1 million would be taxed.

Got it. That's how the numbers made sense but I wasn't sure. So if they offer him 20 million it turns into a 39 million cost.

[southsider2k5]

Got it. That's how the numbers made sense but I wasn't sure. So if they offer him 20 million it turns into a 39 million cost.

 

Exactly.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Got it. That's how the numbers made sense but I wasn't sure. So if they offer him 20 million it turns into a 39 million cost.

Some have said Robert is a top 25 prospect the moment he signs somewhere. So I'd sign him in a heartbeat if I was Reinsdorf.

[ptatc]

Some have said Robert is a top 25 prospect the moment he signs somewhere. So I'd sign him in a heartbeat if I was Reinsdorf.

Back to the risk discussion, others have said they don't like him as a prospect. So it's up to the evaluation of the Sox scouts to determine if he is worth that amount if the price escalates.

[illinilaw08]

Back to the risk discussion, others have said they don't like him as a prospect. So it's up to the evaluation of the Sox scouts to determine if he is worth that amount if the price escalates.

 

IF the Sox scouts think he's a top 25 prospect in the game, I think they need to be willing to go deep into their pockets to get him signed. With the complete lack of obvious impact position talent in the minors after Moncada and (hopefully) Collins, getting a top 25 prospect without giving anything up would be a huge addition to the system. If the Sox scouts love Robert, I'll be very disappointed if the Sox come in second.

[ptatc]

IF the Sox scouts think he's a top 25 prospect in the game, I think they need to be willing to go deep into their pockets to get him signed. With the complete lack of obvious impact position talent in the minors after Moncada and (hopefully) Collins, getting a top 25 prospect without giving anything up would be a huge addition to the system. If the Sox scouts love Robert, I'll be very disappointed if the Sox come in second.

Absolutely. However, with the wide difference of opinions of the "experts" I don't think this is a given.

[harfman77]

I thought they were still paying the actual bonus, which could be spread over 3 years, and not the actual taxes owed on the bonus?

 

Per this article, the Red Sox have already paid off Moncada over his first three years - http://www.12up.com/posts/4228270-report-w...hris-sale-trade

 

The Red Sox are paying the remaining tax as part of the deal.

[Sleepy Harold]

Ben Badler Video Discussing Robert, Says Sox Legitimate Contender

 

Last minute or so he just covers the Sox.

Edited April 21, 2017 by Sleepy Harold