What's up with Saladino?

[Jake]

Coming into the season, Saladino was the obvious best choice at 2B. He'd really earned his spot there. In the ST action I saw, he looked like he might be the most competent hitter on the team. Since then, you've had a combination of his terrible hitting and Yolmer's good hitting cost him some major playing time...and there's a chance when Moncada gets called up, Saladino is shipped out.

 

With that said, we're 6 weeks into the season and good plays sometimes play bad for 6 weeks. I try to look for indicators of whether something has changed beyond how many balls are falling in for hits.

 

Plate discipline

 

Let's start with the most basic way of digging deeper than the OPS-type stats. He has gone from 4.7% BB% (2015) and 4.1% BB% (2016) to a much better 10.7% BB% this year. That change is the only thing keeping him afloat, if you can call where he is afloat. His O-Swing%—the portion of balls outside the strike zone that he swings at—has dropped a bit from an already-low 27.5% and 26.8% to 24.5% this year, which might partially explain the elevated walks.

 

The next obvious thing to look at his strikeouts and they aren't pretty. His K% this year is 27.9%, way up from 19.4% last year and 20.1% the year before. He was consistently around 15% in AAA. Striking out a lot more than normal is a sign of 1. someone who may not be having bad luck and 2. someone who has changed something at the plate.

 

Making contact

 

Digging a touch deeper, there's an obvious explanation for the strikeouts: He's making less contact. Overall, his contact rate is at 77.5%, down from 84.2% last year and 84.6% in 2015. When you look more closely, it's even more alarming. We know already that he's shown better discipline in terms of laying off non-strikes, something that has always been a strength of his. Still, if he never makes contact on balls outside the zone, that could still result in strikeouts...but that hasn't been the case. His O-Contact% (contact on pitches outside the zone) is right at career norms and up from last year.

 

Instead, it's his ability to make contact on strikes that has deteriorated. He had identical 90.9% Z-Contact% in 2015 and 2016, which means he made contact on 91 out of 100 strikes that he swung at. This year, it's down to 81.7%, which isn't super low in general but constitutes a major dropoff. It's the worst on the White Sox and in the lower portion of the league, though it should be said that plenty of good hitters have similar issues swinging and missing at strikes. It may actually be the case that has helped him draw more walks as the whiffs draw him deeper into the count.

 

He has also cut back on his swings at pitches in the zone, from 67.7% last year and 62.1% in 2015 to 58.6% this year...overall, he swings less. I actually find it troubling that he is more selective in the zone and yet swings and misses more. With that said, maybe this is all so he can hit the ball with power. We can see if that's panned out at all.

 

Quality of contact

 

Let's turn to Statcast. One of the new toys we can play with is xwOBA, which is a predicted wOBA (a cousin of wRC+) based on the quality of the player's contact (exit velo and launch angle) along with his K% and BB%. If his xwOBA is way better than his wOBA, we can say he's perhaps been unlucky. Well, that doesn't pan out. His xwOBA is .239, worse than his actual .270 wOBA. Both figures, based on FanGraph's wOBA rules of thumb, are below the "awful" threshold. It is meant to be similar to OBP in terms of what constitutes a good number.

 

So that isn't good. Let's compare to the past two years. Last year his xwOBA was .278, well below his actual .315. In 2015 his xwOBA was .270, close to his actual .262. So the past two years he has outperformed his xwOBA by a similar amount, something faster players tend to do. But take note that his xwOBA last year was quite a bit better than this year, which is important, since it corresponds to a big change in production. In fact, his xwOBA from 2016 to 2017 has worsened by .039 and his actual wOBA has worsened by .045, which is likely no coincidence.

 

Fly balls

 

He's actually hitting the ball higher this year, with an average launch angle of 10.9 degrees, up from 7.9 in 2016 and 5.9 in 2015. Some have argued that this should improve his results, but the swing changes a player might implement to hit the ball higher could have major drawbacks. This also gibes with his substantial increase in fly ball rate, from 23.5% in 2015 and 28.8% in 2016 to 39.7% this year. And he hasn't been popping up more than normal, his 7.4% infield fly per fly ball rate is equal to 2016. Most of his increase in fly balls has come from his groundballs, which have dropped from 53.6% (2015) and 51.3% (2016) to 42.6% this year. His line drives have dropped from 23.0% (2015) and 19.9% (2016) to 17.6% this year, but this is a notoriously finicky stat and the change from last year isn't huge.

 

Exit velocity is down to 84.8mph this year compared to 85.7mph last year, but I don't consider this a very big change and neither is very high at all. If you restrict exit velo to fly balls and line drives, he's hitting them harder this year at 89.3mph than last year at 88.8mph.

 

Still trying to tease this out, his fly balls are launched at a much higher angle (40 degrees) than last year (33 degrees). I should say that while there's not a ton of literature on this, balls hit at a 40 degree launch angle do not fare well and rarely become homers. High flies that do not become homers are usually caught.

 

In other words, Saladino has increased his fly balls but has done so with worse contact (despite being hit harder!). According to xStats.com, about 23% of his balls in play have had a launch angle at or greater than 40 degrees, which is categorizes as "popups." Only 12.8% and 10% were hit at that launch angle in the past two years. He's hitting those balls harder (83.7) than past years (77.6/77.3), but it doesn't matter how high your easy flies are.

 

What's going on?

 

You might say that last year was the fluke. His .587 OPS this year is pretty similar to his .602 OPS in 2015, his first MLB playing time. But we've already started to see that in some important ways, his 2015 and 2016 were much more similar to each other than 2015 and 2017 are.

 

This year, he has a been a very different hitter than in the past. What I can't say is why that has happened or if it has changed. With Yolmer hitting well and Moncada on the way, he might not have long to show us whether he can change. But he's not been unlucky and this is not a return to some pre-2016 norm for him.

[Jose Abreu]

Even if he keeps hitting like this, I do think he'll always have value as a defensive wizard in the infield. I thought he could make it as a starter after last year but now he may just be a career super-sub guy.

[bmags]

You did a really good job. I think he's in the middle of something, but I also worry results may be a bit driven by a bad back.

[chitownsportsfan]

Great content, thanks. I thought Tyler was going to have a nice year and prove he's a possible starter on the next good Sox team but it hasn't gone that way for him. He's not making good contact and this is evidenced by his lowered xOBA and his K% spike.

 

I dunno, with players like Tyler it's always a case of just hitting enough to make the defense worthwhile. Yosmer is in the same boat. Just hit 260/310/400 and you are a decent starter. But if you hit 230/280/330 you're a 25th man.

 

One thing that's nice is that everybody is going to have plenty of chances to prove themselves with big sample sizes this year and next.

[FT35]

This is a solid investigation of stats and reasoning!

 

I like Tyler, but I never saw what many others did when they were calling for him to start. I see him more of a journeyman bench player--a Tony Graffanino player comp. Gloves have a way of finding roster spots in MLB. I think he's better than what he is now--but I couldn't tell you exactly what he is right now. It looks like someone watched him hit a few bombs in batting practice and told him that he had what it takes to be a power hitter in this league and to swing as hard as he can ALL the time. I don't remember this being where he found his success in the past.

[ChiSox59]

Nice post.

 

Not that I expect the Sox to use it, but does Tyler have any options left?

[FT35]

Nice post.

 

Not that I expect the Sox to use it, but does Tyler have any options left?

 

I think so. He's young enough. I'm not an expert...just the dreaded superfan... But if he doesn't find success with us, I can see him catching on with a small-ball team like Oakland or KC who has a high-octane defense/low budget offensive approach to roster composition.

[ChiSox59]

I think so. He's young enough. I'm not an expert...just the dreaded superfan... But if he doesn't find success with us, I can see him catching on with a small-ball team like Oakland or KC who has a high-octane defense/low budget offensive approach to roster composition.

 

He's not really THAT young. He'll be 28 in July. I think he should have options though, because I don't think he was added to the 40 man until 2014 or 2015, so he should have at least 1 left.

[FT35]

He's not really THAT young. He'll be 28 in July. I think he should have options though, because I don't think he was added to the 40 man until 2014 or 2015, so he should have at least 1 left.

 

I hope so. Always like to see our guys find success whether it's figuring things out with us or somewhere else--as long as it's not against us! Right now, I think here with the Sox is the perfect place for him to work things out and define the player he is. Maybe he's trying on different hats on what type of player he can be, but he has a clear path to MLB playing time and can get the long look from our management (and other teams) here that many others don't have.

[greg775]

This is a solid investigation of stats and reasoning!

 

I like Tyler, but I never saw what many others did when they were calling for him to start. I see him more of a journeyman bench player--a Tony Graffanino player comp. Gloves have a way of finding roster spots in MLB. I think he's better than what he is now--but I couldn't tell you exactly what he is right now. It looks like someone watched him hit a few bombs in batting practice and told him that he had what it takes to be a power hitter in this league and to swing as hard as he can ALL the time. I don't remember this being where he found his success in the past.

I think you are right. He does swing awfully hard. I think he's done. Too old to reinvent himself now. Just another flop. I was convinced he was an above average hitter.

[Wanne]

When Moncada comes up I really don't see any point keeping him up if he has options. He's been atrocious so far this year at the plate....

 

great post btw Jake!

Edited May 17, 2017 by Wanne

[Lip Man 1]

You did a really good job. I think he's in the middle of something, but I also worry results may be a bit driven by a bad back.

 

Great point. The guy had a bad lower / herniated disc. That's not easy to overcome when you are trying to be a professional athlete. Joe Crede immediately comes to mind.

[OmarComing25]

I know the flyball revolution is all the rage these days, but I don't think it works for guys like Saladino. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough, so all those extra flyballs mostly just turn into outs. Same thing with Anderson, really. They both should stop hitting so many flyballs.

[caulfield12]

Cabrera and Frazier are essentially sunk costs...but Anderson and Saladino (along with the other two) being number #176-179 out of 188 qualified is pretty scary. Thankfully, it looks like Timmy's starting to come out it a bit, not to mention he was dealing with off field stuff, too.

 

And it's not like anyone expects Leury, Avi or Yolmer to sustain their success. Definitely a mixed bag.

[fathom]

Great post which backs up the eye test. His swing is way less fluid than last year and much more of an uppercut. I wonder if he developed some bad habits in ST when he was seeing the ball go over the fence a lot

[BlackSox13]

Absolutely well done Jake and a very impressive analysis on Saladino that is spot on.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Coming into the season, Saladino was the obvious best choice at 2B. He'd really earned his spot there. In the ST action I saw, he looked like he might be the most competent hitter on the team. Since then, you've had a combination of his terrible hitting and Yolmer's good hitting cost him some major playing time...and there's a chance when Moncada gets called up, Saladino is shipped out.

 

With that said, we're 6 weeks into the season and good plays sometimes play bad for 6 weeks. I try to look for indicators of whether something has changed beyond how many balls are falling in for hits.

 

Plate discipline

 

Let's start with the most basic way of digging deeper than the OPS-type stats. He has gone from 4.7% BB% (2015) and 4.1% BB% (2016) to a much better 10.7% BB% this year. That change is the only thing keeping him afloat, if you can call where he is afloat. His O-Swing%—the portion of balls outside the strike zone that he swings at—has dropped a bit from an already-low 27.5% and 26.8% to 24.5% this year, which might partially explain the elevated walks.

 

The next obvious thing to look at his strikeouts and they aren't pretty. His K% this year is 27.9%, way up from 19.4% last year and 20.1% the year before. He was consistently around 15% in AAA. Striking out a lot more than normal is a sign of 1. someone who may not be having bad luck and 2. someone who has changed something at the plate.

 

Making contact

 

Digging a touch deeper, there's an obvious explanation for the strikeouts: He's making less contact. Overall, his contact rate is at 77.5%, down from 84.2% last year and 84.6% in 2015. When you look more closely, it's even more alarming. We know already that he's shown better discipline in terms of laying off non-strikes, something that has always been a strength of his. Still, if he never makes contact on balls outside the zone, that could still result in strikeouts...but that hasn't been the case. His O-Contact% (contact on pitches outside the zone) is right at career norms and up from last year.

 

Instead, it's his ability to make contact on strikes that has deteriorated. He had identical 90.9% Z-Contact% in 2015 and 2016, which means he made contact on 91 out of 100 strikes that he swung at. This year, it's down to 81.7%, which isn't super low in general but constitutes a major dropoff. It's the worst on the White Sox and in the lower portion of the league, though it should be said that plenty of good hitters have similar issues swinging and missing at strikes. It may actually be the case that has helped him draw more walks as the whiffs draw him deeper into the count.

 

He has also cut back on his swings at pitches in the zone, from 67.7% last year and 62.1% in 2015 to 58.6% this year...overall, he swings less. I actually find it troubling that he is more selective in the zone and yet swings and misses more. With that said, maybe this is all so he can hit the ball with power. We can see if that's panned out at all.

 

Quality of contact

 

Let's turn to Statcast. One of the new toys we can play with is xwOBA, which is a predicted wOBA (a cousin of wRC+) based on the quality of the player's contact (exit velo and launch angle) along with his K% and BB%. If his xwOBA is way better than his wOBA, we can say he's perhaps been unlucky. Well, that doesn't pan out. His xwOBA is .239, worse than his actual .270 wOBA. Both figures, based on FanGraph's wOBA rules of thumb, are below the "awful" threshold. It is meant to be similar to OBP in terms of what constitutes a good number.

 

So that isn't good. Let's compare to the past two years. Last year his xwOBA was .278, well below his actual .315. In 2015 his xwOBA was .270, close to his actual .262. So the past two years he has outperformed his xwOBA by a similar amount, something faster players tend to do. But take note that his xwOBA last year was quite a bit better than this year, which is important, since it corresponds to a big change in production. In fact, his xwOBA from 2016 to 2017 has worsened by .039 and his actual wOBA has worsened by .045, which is likely no coincidence.

 

Fly balls

 

He's actually hitting the ball higher this year, with an average launch angle of 10.9 degrees, up from 7.9 in 2016 and 5.9 in 2015. Some have argued that this should improve his results, but the swing changes a player might implement to hit the ball higher could have major drawbacks. This also gibes with his substantial increase in fly ball rate, from 23.5% in 2015 and 28.8% in 2016 to 39.7% this year. And he hasn't been popping up more than normal, his 7.4% infield fly per fly ball rate is equal to 2016. Most of his increase in fly balls has come from his groundballs, which have dropped from 53.6% (2015) and 51.3% (2016) to 42.6% this year. His line drives have dropped from 23.0% (2015) and 19.9% (2016) to 17.6% this year, but this is a notoriously finicky stat and the change from last year isn't huge.

 

Exit velocity is down to 84.8mph this year compared to 85.7mph last year, but I don't consider this a very big change and neither is very high at all. If you restrict exit velo to fly balls and line drives, he's hitting them harder this year at 89.3mph than last year at 88.8mph.

 

Still trying to tease this out, his fly balls are launched at a much higher angle (40 degrees) than last year (33 degrees). I should say that while there's not a ton of literature on this, balls hit at a 40 degree launch angle do not fare well and rarely become homers. High flies that do not become homers are usually caught.

 

In other words, Saladino has increased his fly balls but has done so with worse contact (despite being hit harder!). According to xStats.com, about 23% of his balls in play have had a launch angle at or greater than 40 degrees, which is categorizes as "popups." Only 12.8% and 10% were hit at that launch angle in the past two years. He's hitting those balls harder (83.7) than past years (77.6/77.3), but it doesn't matter how high your easy flies are.

 

What's going on?

 

You might say that last year was the fluke. His .587 OPS this year is pretty similar to his .602 OPS in 2015, his first MLB playing time. But we've already started to see that in some important ways, his 2015 and 2016 were much more similar to each other than 2015 and 2017 are.

 

This year, he has a been a very different hitter than in the past. What I can't say is why that has happened or if it has changed. With Yolmer hitting well and Moncada on the way, he might not have long to show us whether he can change. But he's not been unlucky and this is not a return to some pre-2016 norm for him.

Good job with all the stats but without conclusions it's pointless. As Fathom just said and I said 4 or 5 days ago it looks like he's trying to pull more and when I started to read all the info you posted I was hoping you would look at his spray charts this year and in previous years to indicate where his hits or outs are going. He just seems to be a better hitter when he is thinking right field or up the middle as opposed to left field.

[southsider2k5]

With the difference in walk rate and contact rate, I almost wonder if he is being too analytical in his approach. He is looking to take, and is too late in swinging when he gets a good pitch because he is looking to take more.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

With the difference in walk rate and contact rate, I almost wonder if he is being too analytical in his approach. He is looking to take, and is too late in swinging when he gets a good pitch because he is looking to take more.

 

Makes sense, the Sox did put him in the leadoff role to start the year. I can't recall if he ever lead off in the minors.

[Jose Abreu]

Makes sense, the Sox did put him in the leadoff role to start the year. I can't recall if he ever lead off in the minors.

I recall him saying this year that he hadn't led off regularly since high school.

[TheFutureIsNear]

294 AB's in '14 at AAA and 298 AB's last year in the majors. Other than that he hasn't really shown the ability to be a competent hitter above high A. I think he's just hitting like...Tyler Saladino, which is a glove 1st bench player. Nice utility infielder to have on the bench, but I'd say your expectations were too high if you were expecting him to be a good hitter this year.

[BamaDoc]

Excellent post and thanks for including data. I think it may be that he is trying to hit with more power and may be more of a warning track power type than slugger. Some of the issues you pointed out may also be indicative of a pressing player. We all know Moncada is the future so I figure he knows it also. Did he try to get more pop to fit the profile of a third baseman better? Who knows. Some of this stuff can almost be unconscious as well. I was going to put it that he sits to close to our current third baseman and has contracted Frazieritis.

[Hatchetman]

The guy had a herniated disk last year, right? I don't think those things just "go away."

[southsider2k5]

Connor McKnight‏Verified account @C1McKnight 38m38 minutes ago Tyler Saladino is out at short taking ground balls today. Throwing pretty well.

 

 

[oldsox]

The guy had a herniated disk last year, right? I don't think those things just "go away."

They can with surgery. One guy who came back from it is that real good shortstop who played for Braves and Dodgers ( can't place his name). Todd Helton came back and played a few more years. Both had their back problems in 2009.