How does adding Robert affect our MiLB ranking?

[bmags]

Might as well trade Q for Jimenez and Happ.

 

Except they would probably offer Jimenez, Clifton (AA) and Schwarber instead at this point. And Cubs' fans would still be pissed, while Sox fans would argue we got robbed.

 

 

#1 with a bullet!!!

 

I would be thrilled with that deal.

[bmags]

So Law will put Tatis Jr. in the top 100 but not Robert who looks like a 5 tool player. SMH.

 

As an 18 year old in A ball status Jr has an .860 OPS with 17 XBH. He's showing great power early. Maybe this talking point should die.

[caulfield12]

Scott Gregor reported via a source that Moncada and Robert are not really that close (compared to Ynoa).

 

Also, that Kanny or Winston-Salem was his likely placement, but even Kanny just to get his feet wet seems too aggressive after sitting out all this time.

Edited May 21, 2017 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Kanny makes more sense with Basabe at W-S.

[caulfield12]

So Law will put Tatis Jr. in the top 100 but not Robert who looks like a 5 tool player. SMH.

 

I guess the positive spin is that Paddy's group finally hit on one...and perhaps Adolfo's coming around as well.

 

What obviously hurts most is we haven't developed a good 3b since Crede.

 

He has shortstop actions and a future 70 arm, but he’ll almost certainly need to move to third base eventually as his large frame fills in and he slows down. The combination of the arm, athleticism, hands and actions could lead to plus-plus defense at third base, though, and with more mass will come more power. fangraphs.com

 

15 errors in 36 games in 2016, 13 errors in 35 games so far in 2017...28 in 71 and would project to 56 over a full minor league season. Of course, that's as a 6'3" SS at age 18.

 

So far his minor league career ops is 792 over three placements.

 

 

[bmags]

I guess the positive spin is that Paddy's group finally hit on one...and perhaps Adolfo's coming around as well.

 

What obviously hurts most is we haven't developed a good 3b since Crede.

 

He has shortstop actions and a future 70 arm, but he’ll almost certainly need to move to third base eventually as his large frame fills in and he slows down. The combination of the arm, athleticism, hands and actions could lead to plus-plus defense at third base, though, and with more mass will come more power. fangraphs.com

 

15 errors in 36 games in 2016, 13 errors in 35 games so far in 2017...28 in 71 and would project to 56 over a full minor league season. Of course, that's as a 6'3" SS at age 18.

 

So far his minor league career ops is 792 over three placements.

 

Errors Mean little in low minors. Errors go down, power goes up as players advance.

[SouthSide2004]

Scott Gregor reported via a source that Moncada and Robert are not really that close (compared to Ynoa).

 

Also, that Kanny or Winston-Salem was his likely placement, but even Kanny just to get his feet wet seems too aggressive after sitting out all this time.

Robert not starting in full season ball would be crazy IMO. He should definitely begin at Kannapolis and hopefully move up to Winston Salem beford the end of the season. Also, they should move up Booker to high A to clear the CF spot for him. Will be fun to follow a Fisher/Robert/Adolfo OF while it lasts.

[GreenSox]

1) We're going to be bad for a while. Depth is not a concern when your team is not competitive

2) If we were playing to win, our system ranking would only be moderately important

That was the mistake the Sox have made for years. Quality of system ("ranking" is unimportant in itself in whatever place the org is) is very important to fill holes, cover injuries, replace the decliners, and the July trade. It's a lot easier to trade a prospect when you have 2 or 3 just like him.

Edited May 21, 2017 by GreenSox

[Dominikk85]

Errors Mean little in low minors. Errors go down, power goes up as players advance.

 

I agree. Errors will improve, what doesn't improve is athleticism and range. If your range is fringy in A ball it will usually only be worse in mlb. But if you have the range and athleticism for a position the rest can be learned.

 

I'm not so worried about errors but I'm very concerned if I read " might have to move off the position if he fills out" or something like that.

 

I rather have an infielder that gets to a lot of balls and tries to make a lot of outs even if it means he makes errors than a guy who is rather steady but doesn't get to balls that are more than 10 feet to his sides.

[caulfield12]

Luis Robert is...well, let's say he's worth 2 WAR in his first MLB season, either next year or 2019, then an average of 4 WAR over each of his following 5 seasons. (I would estimate this as his 50th percentile outcome.) That's 22 WAR in total, or roughly $200,000,000 worth of value during his cost-controlled years. And the White Sox would pay around $50-60M total during the arbitration years, plus of course the ~$45M to sign him yesterday.

 

So if Luis Robert is a 2-4-4-4-4-4 WAR player, the Sox, give or take a buck or two, will pay $100M for $200M worth of production. And if Robert turns into Matt Holliday with better defense & baserunning (in other words, prime Andrew McCutchen), then his value becomes more like $300,000,000 to $350,000,000. And this is not a pipe dream; it's more like his 85th to 90th percentile outcome. That would be nice to have.

 

Molina lacks the potential for a bargain, but offers much more certainty due to tangible and intangible defensive and leadership contributions. Luis Robert offers the potential for a spectacular player for the indefinite future. I cannot stress this enough -- Luis Robert has more positives and fewer negatives than pretty much every other minor leaguer in every other organization. He's obviously a safer prospect than any pitcher. He has better plate discipline and general athleticism than Eloy Jimenez. He is distinctly bigger and stronger than Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna. He's a better defender and baserunner than Austin Meadows and has much, much more batting potential than Amed Rosario or J.P. Crawford.

 

There is an argument to be made, and I'll make it in half a moment, that Luis Robert is now the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

 

When evaluating elite prospects, you look for the red flags. Chunky physique, poor plate discipline, general excess of arrogance rather than a sturdy self-confidence, difficulty staying healthy, not young enough relative to levels of competition, shaky work ethic. Luis Robert has none of these troubling traits. By all appearances he's a humble, hard-working kid with a great health history and a track record of dominating older players in international competition over and over and over, since he was 14 years old. In short, he's the Cuban Bryce Harper, but without the swelled head or demented Pete Rose-worshipping father. Luis Robert is the investment you make.

 

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/cardinals/forums/...321&page=17

 

 

Would there have been a chunk of risk involved in signing Luis Robert? Of course! Every large contract comes with risks. After all, how much value has Adam Wainwright provided since the start of 2015? Perhaps 2-3 WAR, and most of that with his bat? So everything, even so-called safe contracts for established MLB veterans, involves some risk. But holy moly, the difference here is the upside with this kid. How much upside? Here's a quick comparison of Cuban Ciego de Avila teammates.

 

In 2015 23-yr-old Jose Adolis Garcia batted .319/.399/.523 and was MVP of the league.

In 2016 19-yr-old Luis Robert batted .401/.526/.687.

 

And lest you assume that the league batting radically changed from one year to the next, here's a detail. In 2015 there were 20 hitters who exceeded a .900 OPS. The next year there were 20 batters who exceeded a .925 OPS. Barely statistically significant, if at all.

 

Luis Robert is a guy -- if he stays healthy and enjoys merely a typical improvement curve over the next 4-5 years -- who could well be prime Matt Holliday, only with better defense and baserunning. At worst you're getting Hunter Pence Redux. And even that type of player would be well worth a $70-80M outlay, including all those fees and penalties. (And yes I meant to rhyme that. Mo hasn't completely destroyed all the poetry in my soul. Heaven knows he's been trying though.)

 

Great day for the White Sox. Bad day in multiple ways for our local nine, not least of which due to Mo's (now ongoing) mis-valuation of where to make the largest investments. (And how exactly would that nearly $200M David Price contract be working out right now?)

Edited May 22, 2017 by caulfield12

[NCsoxfan]

Luis Robert is...well, let's say he's worth 2 WAR in his first MLB season, either next year or 2019, then an average of 4 WAR over each of his following 5 seasons. (I would estimate this as his 50th percentile outcome.) That's 22 WAR in total, or roughly $200,000,000 worth of value during his cost-controlled years. And the White Sox would pay around $50-60M total during the arbitration years, plus of course the ~$45M to sign him yesterday.

 

So if Luis Robert is a 2-4-4-4-4-4 WAR player, the Sox, give or take a buck or two, will pay $100M for $200M worth of production. And if Robert turns into Matt Holliday with better defense & baserunning (in other words, prime Andrew McCutchen), then his value becomes more like $300,000,000 to $350,000,000. And this is not a pipe dream; it's more like his 85th to 90th percentile outcome. That would be nice to have.

 

Molina lacks the potential for a bargain, but offers much more certainty due to tangible and intangible defensive and leadership contributions. Luis Robert offers the potential for a spectacular player for the indefinite future. I cannot stress this enough -- Luis Robert has more positives and fewer negatives than pretty much every other minor leaguer in every other organization. He's obviously a safer prospect than any pitcher. He has better plate discipline and general athleticism than Eloy Jimenez. He is distinctly bigger and stronger than Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna. He's a better defender and baserunner than Austin Meadows and has much, much more batting potential than Amed Rosario or J.P. Crawford.

 

There is an argument to be made, and I'll make it in half a moment, that Luis Robert is now the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

 

When evaluating elite prospects, you look for the red flags. Chunky physique, poor plate discipline, general excess of arrogance rather than a sturdy self-confidence, difficulty staying healthy, not young enough relative to levels of competition, shaky work ethic. Luis Robert has none of these troubling traits. By all appearances he's a humble, hard-working kid with a great health history and a track record of dominating older players in international competition over and over and over, since he was 14 years old. In short, he's the Cuban Bryce Harper, but without the swelled head or demented Pete Rose-worshipping father. Luis Robert is the investment you make.

 

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/cardinals/forums/...321&page=17

 

 

Would there have been a chunk of risk involved in signing Luis Robert? Of course! Every large contract comes with risks. After all, how much value has Adam Wainwright provided since the start of 2015? Perhaps 2-3 WAR, and most of that with his bat? So everything, even so-called safe contracts for established MLB veterans, involves some risk. But holy moly, the difference here is the upside with this kid. How much upside? Here's a quick comparison of Cuban Ciego de Avila teammates.

 

In 2015 23-yr-old Jose Adolis Garcia batted .319/.399/.523 and was MVP of the league.

In 2016 19-yr-old Luis Robert batted .401/.526/.687.

 

And lest you assume that the league batting radically changed from one year to the next, here's a detail. In 2015 there were 20 hitters who exceeded a .900 OPS. The next year there were 20 batters who exceeded a .925 OPS. Barely statistically significant, if at all.

 

Luis Robert is a guy -- if he stays healthy and enjoys merely a typical improvement curve over the next 4-5 years -- who could well be prime Matt Holliday, only with better defense and baserunning. At worst you're getting Hunter Pence Redux. And even that type of player would be well worth a $70-80M outlay, including all those fees and penalties. (And yes I meant to rhyme that. Mo hasn't completely destroyed all the poetry in my soul. Heaven knows he's been trying though.)

 

Great day for the White Sox. Bad day in multiple ways for our local nine, not least of which due to Mo's (now ongoing) mis-valuation of where to make the largest investments. (And how exactly would that nearly $200M David Price contract be working out right now?)

 

I'm super bullish on Robert, but I don't think anyone can credibly argue he's the best prospect in baseball given how much of a relative unknown he is now.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, fwiw, Gleyber Torres was just promoted to AAA.

After Moncada, who is consensus #2?

 

One thing I don't get is how Law could argue not even Top 100 (is this based on age and no results yet in MILB, or actually attempting to project him?)

 

 

[bmags]

I think we may need to temper expectations a bit. I thought Badler was one of the higher people on Robert and he sounded a lot more cautious on the SSS podcast today. Said in not so many words he would not be a unanimous top 10 pick in this draft and was probably better than the HS bats available in this draft but not obvious.

[steveno89]

Luis Robert is...well, let's say he's worth 2 WAR in his first MLB season, either next year or 2019, then an average of 4 WAR over each of his following 5 seasons. (I would estimate this as his 50th percentile outcome.) That's 22 WAR in total, or roughly $200,000,000 worth of value during his cost-controlled years. And the White Sox would pay around $50-60M total during the arbitration years, plus of course the ~$45M to sign him yesterday.

 

So if Luis Robert is a 2-4-4-4-4-4 WAR player, the Sox, give or take a buck or two, will pay $100M for $200M worth of production. And if Robert turns into Matt Holliday with better defense & baserunning (in other words, prime Andrew McCutchen), then his value becomes more like $300,000,000 to $350,000,000. And this is not a pipe dream; it's more like his 85th to 90th percentile outcome. That would be nice to have.

 

Molina lacks the potential for a bargain, but offers much more certainty due to tangible and intangible defensive and leadership contributions. Luis Robert offers the potential for a spectacular player for the indefinite future. I cannot stress this enough -- Luis Robert has more positives and fewer negatives than pretty much every other minor leaguer in every other organization. He's obviously a safer prospect than any pitcher. He has better plate discipline and general athleticism than Eloy Jimenez. He is distinctly bigger and stronger than Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna. He's a better defender and baserunner than Austin Meadows and has much, much more batting potential than Amed Rosario or J.P. Crawford.

 

There is an argument to be made, and I'll make it in half a moment, that Luis Robert is now the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

 

When evaluating elite prospects, you look for the red flags. Chunky physique, poor plate discipline, general excess of arrogance rather than a sturdy self-confidence, difficulty staying healthy, not young enough relative to levels of competition, shaky work ethic. Luis Robert has none of these troubling traits. By all appearances he's a humble, hard-working kid with a great health history and a track record of dominating older players in international competition over and over and over, since he was 14 years old. In short, he's the Cuban Bryce Harper, but without the swelled head or demented Pete Rose-worshipping father. Luis Robert is the investment you make.

 

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/cardinals/forums/...321&page=17

 

 

Would there have been a chunk of risk involved in signing Luis Robert? Of course! Every large contract comes with risks. After all, how much value has Adam Wainwright provided since the start of 2015? Perhaps 2-3 WAR, and most of that with his bat? So everything, even so-called safe contracts for established MLB veterans, involves some risk. But holy moly, the difference here is the upside with this kid. How much upside? Here's a quick comparison of Cuban Ciego de Avila teammates.

 

In 2015 23-yr-old Jose Adolis Garcia batted .319/.399/.523 and was MVP of the league.

In 2016 19-yr-old Luis Robert batted .401/.526/.687.

 

And lest you assume that the league batting radically changed from one year to the next, here's a detail. In 2015 there were 20 hitters who exceeded a .900 OPS. The next year there were 20 batters who exceeded a .925 OPS. Barely statistically significant, if at all.

 

Luis Robert is a guy -- if he stays healthy and enjoys merely a typical improvement curve over the next 4-5 years -- who could well be prime Matt Holliday, only with better defense and baserunning. At worst you're getting Hunter Pence Redux. And even that type of player would be well worth a $70-80M outlay, including all those fees and penalties. (And yes I meant to rhyme that. Mo hasn't completely destroyed all the poetry in my soul. Heaven knows he's been trying though.)

 

Great day for the White Sox. Bad day in multiple ways for our local nine, not least of which due to Mo's (now ongoing) mis-valuation of where to make the largest investments. (And how exactly would that nearly $200M David Price contract be working out right now?)

 

Prime Matt Holliday with better defense and base running is a very legitimate MVP candidate. I like Robert alot, but it's unfair to put that level of expectation on a player.

 

Scouting grades for Robert: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55

 

That is a very good, FV 60 grade player right there, possibly even higher grade with any improvement. Too soon to say whether he will reach this lofty ceiling or not, but I'm glad the Sox are the organization that gets to find out.

[caulfield12]

I think we may need to temper expectations a bit. I thought Badler was one of the higher people on Robert and he sounded a lot more cautious on the SSS podcast today. Said in not so many words he would not be a unanimous top 10 pick in this draft and was probably better than the HS bats available in this draft but not obvious.

 

Do Pavin Smith or Haseley have anything approaching five tools?

 

Would the White Sox spend $50+ million on Faedo in the open market (if it existed)? Or Carson Fulmer?

 

There were too many quotes from scouts and GM's on Robert's talent level/potential that aren't near the glowing praise we're hearing about the potential player available where the Sox select.

Edited May 22, 2017 by caulfield12

[bmags]

If a college bat randomly fell into INTL signing rules I think we'd be surprised how much they get.

 

His tempering wasn't that Robert is garbage, but was at the very least making a distinct line from Moncada, who is incredibly special. Not every prospect will be #1 in baseball.

[steveno89]

If a college bat randomly fell into INTL signing rules I think we'd be surprised how much they get.

 

His tempering wasn't that Robert is garbage, but was at the very least making a distinct line from Moncada, who is incredibly special. Not every prospect will be #1 in baseball.

 

Depends on the college bat. Do I think Pavin Smith would get $25 million? I highly doubt it.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Just listened to the same thing.

 

Seems we can cross his arm off the plus tool list.

 

Basically, said the Sox would take him first overall in a draft but other teams might rate him lower...and that he obviously compared favorably with all the high school guys. He didn't try to compare him to a Hunter Greene because he doesn't cover the draft at all.

 

Second, who is Victor Mesa or Meza he referred to? The All-Time Cuban basestealing great and a manager now, or another Cuban still on the island that he said was even better than Robert? Guess we need to keep an eye on Jorge Ona who's now in the MW League for the Padres and played on the same junior national team.

 

Finally, nothing about that Jose Israel Garcia guy we started hearing about recently for this signing period.

 

No agreement on his speed to 1b vs. his recent sprinter's speed over twice that distance in workouts, but seems he falls at 55-60 for the moment.

 

The other thing about swinging through 76 mph or mostly 80's fastballs in Cuba with the watered down pitching is we won't know much until he's at Kannapolis, whenever that happens. Fastballs in Cuba are changeups in the US, especially for someone like Michael Kopech.

[bmags]

Depends on the college bat. Do I think Pavin Smith would get $25 million? I highly doubt it.

 

Yeah more applicable to projectable athletes.

[caulfield12]

Found him.

 

CFer Ben Badler says is even better than Luis Robert. At least statistically, Robert outhit.

 

1. Victor Mesa • of, Cuba • Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Listed as the top prospect at the 2017 WBC.

 

The son of Victor Mesa, the former Cuban baseball star who used to manage the Cuban national team, Mesa is the most exciting young prospect in Cuba. A 20-year-old coming off a breakthrough Serie Nacional season in which he hit .354/.399/.539 in 70 games, Mesa is a plus-plus runner who led the league with 40 stolen bases in 50 attempts and plays outstanding defense in center field with a strong arm. He would be a high first-round pick if he were in the draft.

 

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/internation...uH4W1vrD7ZyA.99

Edited May 22, 2017 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Just listened to the same thing.

 

Seems we can cross his arm off the plus tool list.

 

Basically, said the Sox would take him first overall in a draft but other teams might rate him lower...and that he obviously compared favorably with all the high school guys. He didn't try to compare him to a Hunter Greene because he doesn't cover the draft at all.

 

Second, who is Victor Mesa or Meza he referred to? The All-Time Cuban basestealing great and a manager now, or another Cuban still on the island that he said was even better than Robert? Guess we need to keep an eye on Jorge Ona who's now in the MW League for the Padres and played on the same junior national team.

 

Finally, nothing about that Jose Israel Garcia guy we started hearing about recently for this signing period.

 

No agreement on his speed to 1b vs. his recent sprinter's speed over twice that distance in workouts, but seems he falls at 55-60 for the moment.

 

The other thing about swinging through 76 mph or mostly 80's fastballs in Cuba with the watered down pitching is we won't know much until he's at Kannapolis, whenever that happens. Fastballs in Cuba are changeups in the US, especially for someone like Michael Kopech.

 

For time to first, may have the Tim Anderson problem where he just gets out of box really slow but then has great ability to stretch for another base when he gets to full speed.

[caulfield12]

For time to first, may have the Tim Anderson problem where he just gets out of box really slow but then has great ability to stretch for another base when he gets to full speed.

 

Well, that's not unusual for a 6'3" guy out of the RH box who might still be growing.

 

Difference between first step quickness getting jumps and stealing bases...and then flat out sprinting speed on a track from yards 30-60. That's where Avi Garcia gets his five tool readings, especially now that his weight is lower.

 

Or same reason Saladino was supposedly the fastest base runner in different readings.