Which surprisingly productive role player do you believe in the most?

[chitownsportsfan]

I agree with this. I've always liked Sanchez and thought that he would start hitting in the majors after some struggles. His minor league track record is consistent at each stop.

 

I know Moncada is the hot prospect now and he may well turn out to be good in the majors, but as one who really values strong defense (especially up the middle) I would prefer to leave Sanchez alone and move Moncada to 3rd base or the outfield.

 

That triple last night was a thing of beauty. Waited back on the looping curve and drove it into the corner. Then of course he was flying around the bases.

 

This will probably be controversial but I think Carlos is on the juice. I saw a interview with him the other day and holy s*** he is built like a wrestler now. I DGAF whatever helps the Sox win.

[Bob Sacamano]

I agree with this. I've always liked Sanchez and thought that he would start hitting in the majors after some struggles. His minor league track record is consistent at each stop.

 

I know Moncada is the hot prospect now and he may well turn out to be good in the majors, but as one who really values strong defense (especially up the middle) I would prefer to leave Sanchez alone and move Moncada to 3rd base or the outfield.

 

I could see this. As long as he has the arm and hopefully his bat plays there.

[Jose Abreu]

That triple last night was a thing of beauty. Waited back on the looping curve and drove it into the corner. Then of course he was flying around the bases.

 

This will probably be controversial but I think Carlos is on the juice. I saw a interview with him the other day and holy s*** he is built like a wrestler now. I DGAF whatever helps the Sox win.

By Carlos, do you mean Carlos Rodon, or Yolmer Sanchez?

 

If Yolmer, I always remember him being surprisingly jacked, even before this season.

[chitownsportsfan]

By Carlos, do you mean Carlos Rodon, or Yolmer Sanchez?

 

If Yolmer, I always remember him being surprisingly jacked, even before this season.

 

He's still Carlos to me mostly. I was reading his adopt a prospect thread and they called him Yolmer when he was signed.

 

He's really jacked his shoulders are absolutely huge now.

[he gone.]

Quite honestly? None.

 

We probably had the same conversation about Saladino last year. He was hitting well, playing the game right and we said we could see him as a player on this team for years to come. Now that guy is Sanchez?

 

None of these guys are the answer to a championship team. The only way is if they are the ONLY one weak link on a good team.

 

Sanchez has no power. His ceiling is a UTIL player for a 3-4 year period. Same as Saladino.

Davidson will be batting .215 by the end of the year. Will probably hit 25 homers, but he strikes out a ton.

Leury is in the same boat -- UTIL player at best. He doesn't have the power he's been showing.

 

If you have one on your team moving forward it probably turns out to be Garcia as he can play the OF too. They're all the type of players that will be out of the league in 3-4 years.

[Greg Hibbard]

Leury Garcia? I don't think so. After having 2 HR in his first 340 ML PAs, he has 6 in his last 159. It's not gonna last. This is your classic Moneymaker variance. He's having a nice couple of months, but everything points to a sharp regression to norms and beware the power outage which may be precipitous.

 

Yolmer Sanchez? Hell no. He's young, but this guy is your classic late inning defensive replacement who just happens to be hitting .300 for a month. He'll simmer down to his usually .240 self soon enough. He doesn't have enough power to be effective long term.

 

Davidson is the wildcard. He has so few PA at the ML level we have no idea what we're getting. If he has enough pop, .230 with 25 homers is just fine at the cell.

[chitownsportsfan]

Leury Garcia? I don't think so. After having 2 HR in his first 340 ML PAs, he has 6 in his last 159. It's not gonna last. This is your classic Moneymaker variance. He's having a nice couple of months, but everything points to a sharp regression to norms and beware the power outage which may be precipitous.

 

Yolmer Sanchez? Hell no. He's young, but this guy is your classic late inning defensive replacement who just happens to be hitting .300 for a month. He'll simmer down to his usually .240 self soon enough. He doesn't have enough power to be effective long term.

 

Davidson is the wildcard. He has so few PA at the ML level we have no idea what we're getting. If he has enough pop, .230 with 25 homers is just fine at the cell.

 

Not saying it will last but Yolmer is currently rocking an ISO of .141. That's pretty damn good for a defensive minded 2B. If his power surge is real he can hit 260 and still be a 2 WAR player. If he hits 280 he can push into 3-4 WAR territory.

[Greg Hibbard]

Not saying it will last but Yolmer is currently rocking an ISO of .141. That's pretty damn good for a defensive minded 2B. If his power surge is real he can hit 260 and still be a 2 WAR player. If he hits 280 he can push into 3-4 WAR territory.

 

But doesn't the ISO stat just express what we already know - that he's going through an anomalous power surge? It seemingly doesn't describe anything but the fact he's hitting more homers than he usually does.

[Greg Hibbard]

Oh it's triples.

[southsider2k5]

Leury Garcia? I don't think so. After having 2 HR in his first 340 ML PAs, he has 6 in his last 159. It's not gonna last. This is your classic Moneymaker variance. He's having a nice couple of months, but everything points to a sharp regression to norms and beware the power outage which may be precipitous.

 

Yolmer Sanchez? Hell no. He's young, but this guy is your classic late inning defensive replacement who just happens to be hitting .300 for a month. He'll simmer down to his usually .240 self soon enough. He doesn't have enough power to be effective long term.

 

Davidson is the wildcard. He has so few PA at the ML level we have no idea what we're getting. If he has enough pop, .230 with 25 homers is just fine at the cell.

 

Sanchez has been super-young for each level at the first visit. He was 19 in Kannapolis, and 20 on his first stop at Winston Salem, as well as AA, and even AAA. His first ML call up he was 22. If you look at his second go around in Charlotte, you see some pretty serious improvements. His OPS went from .589 to .761 from his first to second year. He was even better at age 23 in a short stint in AAA.

 

In fact his ML numbers go from .593 last year to .788 so far this year, or really similar to the jump he made in AAA progress, and his major league numbers aren't crazy ahead of what he did in AAA to make you think he couldn't sustain a similar number at the majors.

[hogan873]

I voted for Sanchez, but I like all three of them.

 

Davidson strikes me as a guy who will have big power with a mediocre batting average who hasn't seen much time in the field. If he got some more playing time at third and showed he could do well, I might think more highly of him.

 

Leury is the biggest surprise for me so far, but I'm not sure he'll sustain it. His defense is good, but not great. Getting a lot of time in CF is doing him good, though. I think he has a chance to be at worst the 4th outfielder for this team. If he could end up hitting .260ish with 10 or so HRs a year (I think his power this year is an outlier) and start stealing some more bases, he'd look pretty good leading off for this team.

 

I hope Sanchez gets to stay at 2B when Saladino comes back. His defense is great, and having an arm strong enough for 3B at 2B makes his range that much better. I don't think he'll ever be an offensive juggernaut, but with his defense, a .265+ BA with a little power makes him the best of the three in my opinion.

[chitownsportsfan]

But doesn't the ISO stat just express what we already know - that he's going through an anomalous power surge? It seemingly doesn't describe anything but the fact he's hitting more homers than he usually does.

 

I just looked at a bunch of batted ball data and I personally don't really see much there to support any thesis that he's hitting the ball harder overall. He has changed his spray pattern somewhat, now hitting more opposite field balls while also striking out less and taking more pitches outside the zone.

 

Those are all good things but he hasn't seen a dramatic uptick in the quality of contact. There's some improvement (better LD%, less weak contact %) but it's not much.

 

Overall I think he's improved. Has he improved to a true talent 112 wRC+ hitter? Certainly not.

 

But he might have improved up to say a 270/320/390 hitter, which is about a 90 wRC+ and acceptable for a solid defensive 2B.

 

All in all I'm just really happy to be seeing so much positive stuff from the "not quite prospects but might still turn into solid player" types this year. It's certainly more fun than talking about why a guy is doing so poorly relative to projections.

[beautox]

I voted for Leury even though I've been in Sanchez's corner long before he ever got a cup of coffee.

 

As others and myself have always said Sanchez has always been incredibly young for his level he could've spent 3 full seasons at AAA instead of riding the bus and pine and still be on pace to be an above average regular. He was always lauded for his well above average defense and and his hit tool. Power is always last to develop and its the most pronouced in switch hitters so it doesn't surprise me at 24 and having been given enough time to adjust at the major league level that Yolmer can develop into a solid regular. I would put his celing at an Erick Aybar level of player and if that comes to pass thats wonderful for the sox and opens up CF or 3B for Moncada. Yoan is a talented defender but he is still below Yolmer if you can put his legs in CF you still and an elite up the middle player and fill an organizational need, and it goes with many scouts and pundits have been saying for a while, move him off the keystone and let him and his natural talent take over in center.

 

Leury has made some pronounced adjustments and its getting to the point where we're likely seeing the signal through the noise. His contact profile and his BB/K% have changed drastically. Hes up 6% (71.6%) in outside the zone contact, but here is the big one 91.1% zone contact rate, up nearly 14%. Hes always been a talented defender and base runner. if he has a higher contact profile in the zone it makes sense that he has cut down his strike out rate just by proxy. If everything has clicked we could be looking at an Angel Pagan type of player. I don't buy the .186 ISO as his soft/med/hard contact has remained consistent but i could see him settling in at 125-135 for reasons similar to Yolmer; finally comfortable at the major league level and power developing last in Switch hitters combined with this being the beginning of his peak years.

 

Davidson to me is the least likely to be a major league regular of the three because he is on the small side of the platoon and his contact issues. I'm looking forward to Frazier being moved and getting to see if he is just a bench piece or if we have a Mark Reynolds clone on our hands, either way he has earned the chance to see if he can make the adjustments and can manage the power with a +30% k-rate.

 

Ideally Frazier gets moved, Delmonico is brought up to play 1B and Abreu seeing how he is the welcoming comittee and good will amabasador isn't going anywhere gets moved to DH and back up 1B duties.

[chitownsportsfan]

I voted for Leury even though I've been in Sanchez's corner long before he ever got a cup of coffee.

 

As others and myself have always said Sanchez has always been incredibly young for his level he could've spent 3 full seasons at AAA instead of riding the bus and pine and still be on pace to be an above average regular. He was always lauded for his well above average defense and and his hit tool. Power is always last to develop and its the most pronouced in switch hitters so it doesn't surprise me at 24 and having been given enough time to adjust at the major league level that Yolmer can develop into a solid regular. I would put his celing at an Erick Aybar level of player and if that comes to pass thats wonderful for the sox and opens up CF or 3B for Moncada. Yoan is a talented defender but he is still below Yolmer if you can put his legs in CF you still and an elite up the middle player and fill an organizational need, and it goes with many scouts and pundits have been saying for a while, move him off the keystone and let him and his natural talent take over in center.

 

Leury has made some pronounced adjustments and its getting to the point where we're likely seeing the signal through the noise. His contact profile and his BB/K% have changed drastically. Hes up 6% (71.6%) in outside the zone contact, but here is the big one 91.1% zone contact rate, up nearly 14%. Hes always been a talented defender and base runner. if he has a higher contact profile in the zone it makes sense that he has cut down his strike out rate just by proxy. If everything has clicked we could be looking at an Angel Pagan type of player. I don't buy the .186 ISO as his soft/med/hard contact has remained consistent but i could see him settling in at 125-135 for reasons similar to Yolmer; finally comfortable at the major league level and power developing last in Switch hitters combined with this being the beginning of his peak years.

 

Davidson to me is the least likely to be a major league regular of the three because he is on the small side of the platoon and his contact issues. I'm looking forward to Frazier being moved and getting to see if he is just a bench piece or if we have a Mark Reynolds clone on our hands, either way he has earned the chance to see if he can make the adjustments and can manage the power with a +30% k-rate.

 

Ideally Frazier gets moved, Delmonico is brought up to play 1B and Abreu seeing how he is the welcoming comittee and good will amabasador isn't going anywhere gets moved to DH and back up 1B duties.

 

Great post. Interesting data on Leury's inside zone contact rate.

[southsider2k5]

Great post. Interesting data on Leury's inside zone contact rate.

 

I am not superfamiliar with the numbers, but I have to imagine 91% is not sustainable, no?

[beautox]

Great post. Interesting data on Leury's inside zone contact rate.

Thanks

 

I am not superfamiliar with the numbers, but I have to imagine 91% is not sustainable, no?

 

For their careers:

Angel Pagan - 93.4%

 

Denard Span - 95.4%

 

Alejandro De Aza - 89.7%

 

Alex Rios - 91.3%

 

Carl Everett - 83%.

 

Luis Castillo - 95.7 %

 

A high zone contact is sustainable if there have been a pronounced change in an approach. If Leury has come to grips that he isn't going to crush baseball's and has made a conscious effort to make more contact its possible its real.