Just Sayin: 17-13 Against The Division

[caulfield12]

I will be honest, most of the time I have no idea what he is arguing.

 

The point is that we can't assess these draft picks until much further down the road...

 

Look at Tim Beckham vs. Gordon Beckham in 2008. Raw high schooler vs. a player already near his ceiling. Then, a lot of times, it's pure luck, like Kolek and Aiken going before Rodon. Can we credit the scouting department for that one? Then all of a sudden, Schwarber became a case of a brilliant overdraft at 4, and yet now Avi Garcia looks like potentially the better player. Things are constantly shifting...a year ago, Trayce Thompson was a "feather in the cap" for developing high ceiling, athletically gifted HS players. Today, not so much.

 

We can go around and around in circles about not drafting Trout, or why we took Mitchell instead...or redrafting Benintendi/Fulmer/Happ, but that's always the case in baseball.

 

In the end, you have to be right more often than not, let's say your difference between good and great GM's is 60% vs. 40-45% decision success rates. The Astros get brought up as an example of blowing some calls (Bryant vs. Appel, the Aiken negotiations), but all their other under the radar moves have more than covered for that. Just like the Cubs more often that not (Soler...perhaps Schwarber and Russell) have been pretty good with nailing hitting prospects, at least two standard deviations ahead of the rest of the league or better.

 

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

The point is that we can't assess these draft picks until much further down the road...

 

Look at Tim Beckham vs. Gordon Beckham in 2008. Raw high schooler vs. a player already near his ceiling. Then, a lot of times, it's pure luck, like Kolek and Aiken going before Rodon. Can we credit the scouting department for that one? Then all of a sudden, Schwarber became a case of a brilliant overdraft at 4, and yet now Avi Garcia looks like potentially the better player. Things are constantly shifting...a year ago, Trayce Thompson was a "feather in the cap" for developing high ceiling, athletically gifted HS players. Today, not so much.

 

We can go around and around in circles about not drafting Trout, or why we took Mitchell instead...or redrafting Benintendi/Fulmer/Happ, but that's always the case in baseball.

 

In the end, you have to be right more often than not, let's say your difference between good and great GM's is 60% vs. 40-45% decision success rates. The Astros get brought up as an example of blowing some calls (Bryant vs. Appel, the Aiken negotiations), but all their other under the radar moves have more than covered for that. Just like the Cubs more often that not (Soler...perhaps Schwarber and Russell) have been pretty good with nailing hitting prospects, at least two standard deviations ahead of the rest of the league or better.

 

You put together a really nice post than just throw that line in there and it ruins it all. A standard deviation from what? The average WAR from any given draft? Come on, that's going to be very hard to calculate to any meaningful accuracy given all the variables.

[southsider2k5]

I did mention that but it's not my report. Someone around the Sox reported that to be clear. I know the Sox liked Dillon Tate and they had talked underslot with Funkhouser. Regardless they wanted Benintendi to fall.

 

 

Nola was connected to the Sox to an extent but there was no public info out there on the Sox. Considering they were pick #3, most mocks had them getting the one of the "Big Three" (Rodon/Aiken/Kolek) that was still left. This is after Hoffman tore his UCL.

 

That being said, I have since learned that the Sox knew on draft day that if Houton went Aiken they would get Rodon. Apparently Rodon bucked both Miami (#2) and the Cubs (#4). Bucking the Marlins is an obvious play but crazy to think Rodon wouldn't talk to the Cubs. Maybe the angle was he'd never be available.

 

The one thing the White Sox have always offered SP's is a FAST path to the majors if you are deemed as able to help early. Rodon is just now 24 years old after being drafted in 2014. it isn't that hard to squeeze your eyes and realize that on a normal developmental path, he would probably still be in the minors, or JUST now starting to pitch in the majors. Instead Rodon has about three seasons worth of service time is somewhere around halfway to free agency.

[SoxAce]

? He didn't appear to throw any shade at Rodon in that post.

 

He has in the past in prior posts. Sometimes subtle.

[caulfield12]

You put together a really nice post than just throw that line in there and it ruins it all. A standard deviation from what? The average WAR from any given draft? Come on, that's going to be very hard to calculate to any meaningful accuracy given all the variables.

 

In the final conclusion, the White Sox have three current niches.

 

1) pitching

2) Cubans

3) health of (their own) starting pitching, other than Danks and now Rodon

 

It's hard to really conclude much more about this season, other than Kahnle looking like a huge plus and Yolmer, Leury and Avi looking (for now) like 2-4 war players when nothing was expected from any of them. They stuck with Davidson, as well. Now for a rebuilding team to play all those guys, not really any shockers other than potentially bailing on Avi at the end of last year and not offering arbitration.

 

Of course, there are the head scratchers like Tatis...and we're now starting to question drafting Burdi so high when the team's "competitiveness" has been dramatically altered, or whether Fulmer/Lopez will be relievers. We've added Robert, but also seen Q, Anderson and Rodon lose value, regress a bit or go on the shelf while still accumulating service time. All things considered, I'll do a Greg and give an incomplete B so far (jumped from B-/C+ without Robert). I'll assume Moncada will eventually get to the other side of his wrist injury, Collins is a legit starter at catcher and Kopech and even Hansen become future rotation mainstays and don't go down to injury.

[Eminor3rd]

A lot of people would rather tank than pick 29th.

 

Literally nobody here would rather tank than end up with the second best record in baseball.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't you realize you draftniks are falling for the biggest cliche in sports: Only caring about the future. Wanting the quarterback who never plays to take over. The unknown is always more mysterious and better than the known. You want the best possible draftee. You are all assuming your front office will take the right guy, sign the right guy, develop the right guy.

Give me a winning team now. Give me all wins NOW. I'll take as many wins as we can get because a.) I don't care about the draft one iota. Whatever player we get, fine, I'll read the hype on him one day and hope to see him in the big leagues. In the meantime, give me wins now and give me free agents. The money the team spends? They should spend a TON considering what they are charging fans for food, drink and tickets and parking. I am much less front office friendly than most of you who trust our team to pick the right guy. There's always an excuse. Gee if the team on the field would have lost 2 more games we wouldn't have taken Rodon we'd have had Benetendi!!! Why didn't the team just lose 10 more that year?" Man I'm glad I'll never think that way. I want wins each night they take the field. Even this pathetic team. Give me a win tonight.

 

We all want to win now, greg, but what you are advocating for flat-out DOESN'T WORK in today's game. The examples are everywhere. The league has worked WAY too hard on creating parity by disincentivizing the act of throwing money at players. There's simply too much value to be had in controllable, pre-free agent stars.

 

It's called the meta-game, greg. The dinosaurs are dead. You gotta evolve or become extinct.

 

All that said, I don't root for losses either. If we're conducting the rebuild correctly (and I believe that we basically are), any value we lose in a poorer draft position will be made up by the better-than-expected performances that led to the additional wins.

 

At the end of the day though, the draft IS crucial to us getting back to the post-season.

[iamshack]

The problem is Greg chooses not to acknowledge the rest of the league, and can only talk about the White Sox and Royals. Without looking it up, I promise you Greg couldn't name 3 Rockies or Padres. He argues points with limited knowedlge. When you present those points to him, they are ignored, and he hits the same bullet points over and over. He has admitted he doesn't believe facts when presented them.

 

It's been going on for YEARS.

TBH, I can live with the ignorance.

 

It's the ignorance combined with this incredible hubris in regards to what moves SHOULD have been made that drive me crazy.

[caulfield12]

Or Melky is now productive because he recovered from fouling a ball off his face and then came up with a key hit?

Edited June 8, 2017 by caulfield12

[jenksycat]

And the White Sox still probably would have picked Fulmer. You guys keep mentioning this anecdote, but the Sox would have had to have picked Benintendi. This is why scouting is that much more important than where you actually pick.

 

Still doesn't matter. Getting the #1 pick means you get your top guy guaranteed + more money to spend overall. You're still banking on your scouts, but if you don't trust them then the franchise was doomed regardless.

 

I swear everyone arguing against this seems to think the only 2 options are: Lose 100 games and get the 1st pick or win 99 and get the 29th. We're talking about a garbage team that's already a lock to get a top 5 pick, lose a handful more games and now you're getting the #1 pick. Complete nonsense to not want that.

[caulfield12]

And attendance this year has proven they can fairly easily absorb a bottom feeding AL team and not implode financially.

In fact, depending on results with A's and Royals, we'll be in last in the AL Central and last/next to last in the entire AL.

 

Dick Allen referenced the sellout for Buehrle. Sox fans are still nostalgic about the past, and will turn out for those special events.

 

(Of course, the real test is what happens in the second half of 2018 if there are no obvious signs of progress with the rebuild.)

Edited June 8, 2017 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Still doesn't matter. Getting the #1 pick means you get your top guy guaranteed + more money to spend overall. You're still banking on your scouts, but if you don't trust them then the franchise was doomed regardless.

 

I swear everyone arguing against this seems to think the only 2 options are: Lose 100 games and get the 1st pick or win 99 and get the 29th. We're talking about a garbage team that's already a lock to get a top 5 pick, lose a handful more games and now you're getting the #1 pick. Complete nonsense to not want that.

 

To each their own. I will never enjoy the White Sox losing.

[Bob Sacamano]

To each their own. I will never enjoy the White Sox losing.

 

I don't think it's really about getting enjoyment out of their losses. Just accepting that it may be better in the long run.

 

Fortunately for us, this is year 1 of a rebuild and whether we want them or not, the losses will pile up regardless.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think it's really about getting enjoyment out of their losses. Just accepting that it may be better in the long run.

 

Fortunately for us, this is year 1 of a rebuild and whether we want them or not, the losses will pile up regardless.

 

See, that's where I think you're wrong. I understand and appreciate the rebuild. The losses don't both me. It's openly rooting for losing that is ridiculous.

 

This team isn't very good, and they are going to lose a lot, and that is fine, but turning on the game and hoping that someone like Miguel Gonzalez gets lit up so the Sox gain a game in the draft is crazy.

[Bob Sacamano]

See, that's where I think you're wrong. I understand and appreciate the rebuild. The losses don't both me. It's openly rooting for losing that is ridiculous.

 

This team isn't very good, and they are going to lose a lot, and that is fine, but turning on the game and hoping that someone like Miguel Gonzalez gets lit up so the Sox gain a game in the draft is crazy.

 

The possible trade pieces have to at least do good.

[flavum]

Pitch-to-pitch, I want whatever is good for the rebuild. If Anderson is up in a big game situation, I want him to succeed. If a Leury Garcia or Omar Narvaez are in the same situation, not so much.

 

Losses are going to pile up the next couple years regardless of rooting interests. Consume the product any way you want, but for me, I want to see the next few years have a beginning, middle, and end...suck, get better and see improvement, then make the postseason back-to-back years for the first time.

[witesoxfan]

Pitch-to-pitch, I want whatever is good for the rebuild. If Anderson is up in a big game situation, I want him to succeed. If a Leury Garcia or Omar Narvaez are in the same situation, not so much.

 

Losses are going to pile up the next couple years regardless of rooting interests. Consume the product any way you want, but for me, I want to see the next few years have a beginning, middle, and end...suck, get better and see improvement, then make the postseason back-to-back years for the first time.

 

This is pretty much exactly the way I feel.

[Bob Sacamano]

This is pretty much exactly the way I feel.

 

Also how I feel.

[southsider2k5]

Still doesn't matter. Getting the #1 pick means you get your top guy guaranteed + more money to spend overall. You're still banking on your scouts, but if you don't trust them then the franchise was doomed regardless.

 

I swear everyone arguing against this seems to think the only 2 options are: Lose 100 games and get the 1st pick or win 99 and get the 29th. We're talking about a garbage team that's already a lock to get a top 5 pick, lose a handful more games and now you're getting the #1 pick. Complete nonsense to not want that.

 

The problem is it isn't that simple. If you suck, that usually is because your players all suck. The Sox still have enough guys on this roster that could have trade value. Looking at what major leaguers bring back in trades versus was statistical expectations are from kids in the drafter at relative draft positions, the White Sox stand to gain MUCH more in the long term by winning 75 games because guys like Yolmer Sanchez and Avi Garcia had break out seasons and exploded their trade value than if we just outright sucked all around. Take the Sale deal. We essentially got 3 advanced and years matured first round pick talents, plus another flyer for Sale. We could do the same for Q if he pitches well. If Avi keeps hitting like an all-star we could pull another large package for him, versus his being a DFA if he has another poor season. Looking at the whole body of work, we could be talking like 10 additional top flight prospects in our system because our players are good enough to win games, versus just better draft position in each round if not.

[Bob Sacamano]

The problem is it isn't that simple. If you suck, that usually is because your players all suck. The Sox still have enough guys on this roster that could have trade value. Looking at what major leaguers bring back in trades versus was statistical expectations are from kids in the drafter at relative draft positions, the White Sox stand to gain MUCH more in the long term by winning 75 games because guys like Yolmer Sanchez and Avi Garcia had break out seasons and exploded their trade value than if we just outright sucked all around. Take the Sale deal. We essentially got 3 advanced and years matured first round pick talents, plus another flyer for Sale. We could do the same for Q if he pitches well. If Avi keeps hitting like an all-star we could pull another large package for him, versus his being a DFA if he has another poor season. Looking at the whole body of work, we could be talking like 10 additional top flight prospects in our system because our players are good enough to win games, versus just better draft position in each round if not.

 

If a team offers the Sox anything of value (a top 100 prospect and a few more highly touted guys) I'd pack Avi's bags and drive him to the airport myself.

Edited June 8, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

If a team offers the Sox anything of value (a top 100 prospect and a few more highly touted guys) I'd pack Avi's bags and drive him to the airport myself.

 

Me too. Hell I would probably drive him to his next destination and let him pick out the radio station.

[Bob Sacamano]

Me too. Hell I would probably drive him to his next destination and let him pick out the radio station.

 

Lol same.

[jenksycat]

The problem is it isn't that simple. If you suck, that usually is because your players all suck. The Sox still have enough guys on this roster that could have trade value. Looking at what major leaguers bring back in trades versus was statistical expectations are from kids in the drafter at relative draft positions, the White Sox stand to gain MUCH more in the long term by winning 75 games because guys like Yolmer Sanchez and Avi Garcia had break out seasons and exploded their trade value than if we just outright sucked all around. Take the Sale deal. We essentially got 3 advanced and years matured first round pick talents, plus another flyer for Sale. We could do the same for Q if he pitches well. If Avi keeps hitting like an all-star we could pull another large package for him, versus his being a DFA if he has another poor season. Looking at the whole body of work, we could be talking like 10 additional top flight prospects in our system because our players are good enough to win games, versus just better draft position in each round if not.

 

I said this earlier in the thread, but I'm also no rooting for all individual players to do poorly. I want Avi to be a real baseball player, Q/Gonzo/Shields to all pitch well enough to be traded, Frazier to remember how to hit, etc. etc.....But I also want them to lose as many games as possible. I know both of those may not be possible, but that's what I'm 'rooting' for. Hopefully we can unload at the deadline and have those losses pile up.

[Bob Sacamano]

I said this earlier in the thread, but I'm also no rooting for all individual players to do poorly. I want Avi to be a real baseball player, Q/Gonzo/Shields to all pitch well enough to be traded, Frazier to remember how to hit, etc. etc.....But I also want them to lose as many games as possible. I know both of those may not be possible, but that's what I'm 'rooting' for. Hopefully we can unload at the deadline and have those losses pile up.

 

It's definitely possible for both to happen. You could have a starter go 6-7 innings giving up 2-3 runs and the bullpen comes in and does while Frazier goes 2-3 with a HR and they lose 3-1, 3-2. Or there are games where the offense does good but the starters maybe give up 4 runs. Maybe guys get hits only when no one is on base. Definitely a lot of scenarios where you can have a decent amount of guys doing well but still losing consistently.

[greg775]

It's openly rooting for losing that is ridiculous.

 

This team isn't very good, and they are going to lose a lot, and that is fine, but turning on the game and hoping that someone like Miguel Gonzalez gets lit up so the Sox gain a game in the draft is crazy.

My sentiments exactly. When I write this I get reamed badly. Great post.

 

If a team offers the Sox anything of value (a top 100 prospect and a few more highly touted guys) I'd pack Avi's bags and drive him to the airport myself.

Avi is old news. Many fans like you want the mysterious future guy. I wonder if the young guy we take in the draft will ever have a stretch like Avi had to open this season. Some of his hits have been monumental. It's a fair question BTW. There are so many busts in the first round of the draft. Hope Avi continues to have a good season and doesn't flame out again but you can't take away what he did for 2 months.