DRAFT TRACKER 2017, and Day One Discussion

[hi8is]

If I read it correctly, either Piliere or Law said he's a better hitter than Senzel, Swanson and Bregman out of college

Yea, I haven't seen that direct quote but I've read in multiple places that he's the best college bat of the class... not sure that I agree but at #11 it's a solid pick up, injury concerns be damned. We need him in 2019 or 2020 - not 2018.

[fathom]

Why would that matter?

 

Just wondering what timeframe is for a 2nd baseman who gets TJS?

[bmags]

Why would that matter?

 

I do find it kind of interesting as I was kind of amazed how much time Blake Hickman lost to his TJS. Because he had it in late june/early july he basically lost 2 years

[fathom]

I do find it kind of interesting as I was kind of amazed how much time Blake Hickman lost to his TJS. Because he had it in late june/early july he basically lost 2 years

 

And who knows about using the new method that some have had done that was a super fast return

[iamshack]

Just wondering what timeframe is for a 2nd baseman who gets TJS?

I think it's probably 6-7 months? It isn't like he needs to be throwing like a pitcher, right?

[hi8is]

Sox haven't been all that present on Hiura's games. Not sure it means much, but they weren't a team with a clear presence around him like say the A's or the Red Sox.

Do you have any insights into where they Sox were present, outside of the commonly reported names? I've seen reports of them actively on Haseley, Smith, Kendall, Adell, and Beck.

[bmags]

For those interested, Longenhagen at fangraphs put his FV scores up on his sortable draft board (I hadn't seen them until today).

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Question....if you draft Hiura now, any chance he's healthy by May of next year if he gets TJS right away?

 

The interview I read with him said that his doctors told him he doesn't need TJS.

[fathom]

The interview I read with him said that his doctors told him he doesn't need TJS.

 

Not sure everyone believes that. Might be wishful thinking by him

[iamshack]

Not sure everyone believes that. Might be wishful thinking by him

So today he is 20, will turn 21 in August.

 

Even if you assume he loses a full year, seems like it isn't something that should hold you back if you truly believe in him as a hitter.

 

Look at Jeff Hoffman at this point. Think there are some teams that wished they would have taken him earlier?

[fathom]

Don't take it to the bank but I think the Sox want one of the UVA guys/Beck and Bukasukas is in play as well.

 

No Kendall?

[ptatc]

He's such a snarky bastard.

 

Stone mentioned yesterday that Robert, by consensus of the industry, would be a top 3 pick.

Not from the consensus KLaw's sources.

[fathom]

So today he is 20, will turn 21 in August.

 

Even if you assume he loses a full year, seems like it isn't something that should hold you back if you truly believe in him as a hitter.

 

Look at Jeff Hoffman at this point. Think there are some teams that wished they would have taken him earlier?

 

Agreed completely

[DirtySox]

Piliere still trumpeting that AZ is all over Haseley or Smith.

[fathom]

Kendall stock plummeting?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/FPiliereD1/statu...369957898977280

[ptatc]

Question....if you draft Hiura now, any chance he's healthy by May of next year if he gets TJS right away?

If he gets the surgery right way, he'd probably be ready for some of winter ball.

[steveno89]

Don't take it to the bank but I think the Sox want one of the UVA guys/Beck and Bukasukas is in play as well.

 

Have to think the Sox are looking at:

 

Haseley, Beck, Bukauskas...but none of them might be on the board for us.

 

Bukauskas I'm not a big fan of, as I think he ends up being a reliever due to his small size and high effort delivery

 

Smith doesn't excite me as a 1B/DH only prospect

[fathom]

Have to think the Sox are looking at:

 

Haseley, Beck, Bukauskas...but none of them might be on the board for us.

 

Bukauskas I'm not a big fan of, as I think he ends up being a reliever due to his small size and high effort delivery

 

Smith doesn't excite me as a 1B/DH only prospect

 

Just remember, every meaningless regular season win counts

[chitownsportsfan]

Kendall stock plummeting?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/FPiliereD1/statu...369957898977280

 

Just looking at that K% in college is scary and the rather mediocre production. If he can't ever hit above 230 in MLB he's a 1 WAR player no matter how good his other tools, imo of course. Hardly an expert but I did do some research on him and obviously have read what our guys here think. Seems like a late round 1st flyer, not a top half of the 1st guy.

[bmags]

Just remember, every meaningless regular season win counts

 

Just remember, being excited that the white sox won has no bearing about whether they win or lose on the field.

[fathom]

Just remember, being excited that the white sox won has no bearing about whether they win or lose on the field.

 

Never said it did, it just frustrates me when some people don't get the philosophy behind tanking

[iamshack]

Just remember, being excited that the white sox won has no bearing about whether they win or lose on the field.

We cannot all read this enough times.

 

In fact, I think we should all repeat this in unison, once a day.

[hi8is]

Don't take it to the bank but I think the Sox want one of the UVA guys/Beck and Bukasukas is in play as well.

I really hope Bukasukas is gone by 11 but doubt it. Think that Beck and Haseley are pipe dreams at 11 and Smith may also be a tall order that would be great where we're at. If it's down to Bukasukas and someone like White - I hope they go positional.

[DirtySox]

Sneaking suspicion Evan White is very much in play.

 

 

Yassss.

[caulfield12]

This change reflects the way front offices’ draft strategies have shifted over time, particularly in the post-“Moneyball” era. As other teams followed Beane’s lead and made selections guided by research about past drafts, the number of picks devoted to college players at all positions rose compared to previous batch of drafts. But that, in turn, caused college prospects to become overvalued, and, starting in the ’90s, they began delivering fewer returns than before. Although college hitters still appear to be far better bargains than high school ones, college pitchers have gone from being the draft’s best-kept secret to being a terrible investment. At the same time, their once-maligned high school counterparts have become more valuable.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/moneyb...=espn:frontpage

Moneyball draft advice has lost its usefulness

 

 

Another interesting tidbit

When I attended the SABR Analytics Conference in 2016, one of the more interesting presentations was delivered by Robert Brustad, a professor at Northern Colorado University's School of Sport and Exercise Science. The basic synopsis: Brustad studied the ages of high school kids selected in the first 20 rounds from 2005 to 2012 and found older high school players eventually underachieved based on their draft position while younger high schoolers overachieved. (Brustad's study produced similar results to one by Rany Jazeryli that reviewed drafts from 1965 to 1995.) This is a good sign for Greene, who doesn't turn 18 until August, but a bad one for Law's No. 18 prospect, LHP Trevor Rogers, who turns 20 in November.

 

Some "young" players, all not yet 18 when drafted included Mike Trout, Madison Bumgarner, Anthony Rizzo, Correa, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman and Chris Archer. Other young high schoolers who will be 17 on draft day include Puerto Rican OF Heliot Ramos (No. 21 on Law's board), RHP Shane Baz (No. 45 on Law's board), and OF Quentin Holmes (No. 33 on MLB.com's board).

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...n-mlb-draft-day

Edited June 12, 2017 by caulfield12