Cafardo: Cardinals interested in Avi

[turnin' two]

I am not willing to put nine figures on the fact that this is the real Avi Garcia. I think there is a chance he can sustain it, but that is one helluva bet.

 

Fair enough, but isn't there a lot of space between extending him, and extending him for 100 million?

[iamshack]

Well, they are going to have pay players at some point. You can try and extend him this off season. In fact, he's the exact type of guy they should extend, a top talent that is coming into his prime years.

Yeah, I agree with you here. Yes, a REBUILD typically means dealing away current assets for future assets, as generally, those future assets hold more risk and thus can be acquired with less resources. That being said, the ultimate goal always has to be fielding a collection of baseball players that can win baseball games.

 

Additionally, sometimes a player simply has more value to the marketplace than he does to your own organization (Chris Sale).

 

Avisail Garcia is basically an existing asset of little value that was written off, which has almost unbelievably blossomed into something quite valuable.

 

As with all of our other assets, we need to determine, on a case-by-case basis, three things: 1) What is the current market value of the asset; 2) What is the current value of the asset to the Organization; and 3) What is the anticipated value of the asset to the Organization during the window during which the MLB Club forecasts to be competitive?

 

My speculation is that the answer to those questions looks something like this: 1) Reasonably valuable, but perhaps undervalued due to a small sample size and a large divergence from previous performance; 2) Very valuable - indeed he has been one of the best-performing players on the MLB Club; and 3) Potential to be very valuable, with a higher than average risk of volatility in performance due to a lack of information at this time.

 

I believe the answers to the questions are likely to at least be reasonably accurate. Assuming they are, they point to holding the asset unless an offer is made which requires you to take it due to a desire to limit the risk mentioned in answers 1 and 3.

 

Folks, remember, just because we lack control into our forecasted competitive window does not mean we cannot regain control through further negotiations resulting in a contract extension/new contract.

 

The goal of the rebuild is to assemble talent, given all available resources. Cash is one of those resources. We can utilize it to sign some well-performing assets that we would otherwise not have under contract.

[iamshack]

I am not willing to put nine figures on the fact that this is the real Avi Garcia. I think there is a chance he can sustain it, but that is one helluva bet.

NINE figures?

 

What?

[southsider2k5]

Fair enough, but isn't there a lot of space between extending him, and extending him for 100 million?

 

At this stage, he is two seasons away from free agency. In order to get him to give up that free agency, you are going to have to make it worth his while. The time for cheap extensions is pre-arb, not two years from free agency. I am not sure how you structure a 3 or 4 year deal that is bargain enough for the White Sox, but big enough to make Garcia willing to give up free agency without a big guarantee of money. What are you taking? Something like 3/45? ($10-'18, $15-'19, $20-'20). I mean in that case, why wouldn't Abi just wait and look for a 5 or 6 year deal at the same rate or better on the open market?

[iamshack]

At this stage, he is two seasons away from free agency. In order to get him to give up that free agency, you are going to have to make it worth his while. The time for cheap extensions is pre-arb, not two years from free agency. I am not sure how you structure a 3 or 4 year deal that is bargain enough for the White Sox, but big enough to make Garcia willing to give up free agency without a big guarantee of money. What are you taking? Something like 3/45? ($10-'18, $15-'19, $20-'20). I mean in that case, why wouldn't Abi just wait and look for a 5 or 6 year deal at the same rate or better on the open market?

I don't understand why it matters whether this is pre-arb or not. Yes, he will get paid in arbitration, but typically, an arbitrator does not want to award a massive increase from previous years unless there is a steady history of performance backing it. Avi obviously does not have that history.

 

Many people were upset that we paid Avi $3 million this season.

 

Do you believe that if after this season, assuming he continues along some reasonable range of performance similar to where he has been over his last 450 PAs or so, we went to his reps and offered something in the way of Jose Abreu's contract, that he wouldn't accept that? I think it would be highly compelling, and would be a far better use of resources than to trade him for dimes on the dollar because we were concerned about the risk.

Edited June 22, 2017 by iamshack

[sin city sox fan]

They just won a World Series, and they're set to be the favorites in their division for the foreseeable future. I think that's literally everything you can ask for your team to give you.

 

If the Cardinals are able to steal Avi Garcia from us, the Cubs will not win another division title for a very long time.

[turnin' two]

At this stage, he is two seasons away from free agency. In order to get him to give up that free agency, you are going to have to make it worth his while. The time for cheap extensions is pre-arb, not two years from free agency. I am not sure how you structure a 3 or 4 year deal that is bargain enough for the White Sox, but big enough to make Garcia willing to give up free agency without a big guarantee of money. What are you taking? Something like 3/45? ($10-'18, $15-'19, $20-'20). I mean in that case, why wouldn't Abi just wait and look for a 5 or 6 year deal at the same rate or better on the open market?

 

 

There are several reasons. What is he going to make the next couple years? Your guess puts him at 25 mil, without an extension he will make what 12 -15 (just a guess) That seems to be a good reason. He could get injured. That is another reason. Maybe he likes it here and doesn't want to leave.

 

More than likely though, he wouldn't sign an extension for 3-4 years. But the Sox could do 5 years, and that would probably look pretty good. 5/ (60-70) could be tough to turn down. And still leaves quite a bit of room before 9 figures.

[turnin' two]

PS-- I know 5/ (60-70) is still a big financial risk for the Sox, but if they feel he is even close to this player, well, they just spent 50 million on a 19 year old they had really never seen. Avi sure seems to be a safer bet than that...

[southsider2k5]

I don't understand why it matters whether this is pre-arb or not. Yes, he will get paid in arbitration, but typically, an arbitrator does not want to award a massive increase from previous years unless there is a steady history of performance backing it. Avi obviously does not have that history.

 

Many people were upset that we paid Avi $3 million this season.

 

Do you believe that if after this season, assuming he continues along some reasonable range of performance similar to where he has been over his last 450 PAs or so, we went to his reps and offered something in the way of Jose Abreu's contract, that he wouldn't accept that? I think it would be highly compelling, and would be a far better use of resources than to trade him for dimes on the dollar because we were concerned about the risk.

 

Garcia will be a $10 million in arbitration this year if he anywhere close to keeps up this season. The arb system isn't as much about raises as it is comps. RF's who hit .340 and put up .900+ OPSs get paid big time, and this is year #2 of arb when those numbers start to explode. Next year the same sort of numbers will get him in the range of $15 million, maybe more, if he goes through the arb system.

 

If Garcia has held out this long to be extended, it tells me that he thinks he can get paid in free agency. For what it would take to get his attention and give up free agency, I am not willing to go there.

[turnin' two]

If Garcia has held out this long to be extended, it tells me that he thinks he can get paid in free agency. For what it would take to get his attention and give up free agency, I am not willing to go there.

 

 

Has he? I kind of doubt there were extension overtures during previous seasons.

[iamshack]

Garcia will be a $10 million in arbitration this year if he anywhere close to keeps up this season. The arb system isn't as much about raises as it is comps. RF's who hit .340 and put up .900+ OPSs get paid big time, and this is year #2 of arb when those numbers start to explode. Next year the same sort of numbers will get him in the range of $15 million, maybe more, if he goes through the arb system.

 

If Garcia has held out this long to be extended, it tells me that he thinks he can get paid in free agency. For what it would take to get his attention and give up free agency, I am not willing to go there.

I have to say, I think your numbers are quite high above, and I am utterly lost as a result of your second paragraph. What makes you think he held out? When do you suppose an extension was offered him?

 

Bottom line, the guy is guaranteed the remainder of his $3 million owed to him this year, and probably a solid $7-8 million next year through arb. Beyond that, he is guaranteed very little. Offering him $68 million or so over 6 years allows him to have generational money with another potential shot at FA in his age 32/33 season.

 

For a guy that has basically been worse than replacement level his previous 3 seasons, I suspect that is more alluring than you are recognizing.

[caulfield12]

Garcia will be a $10 million in arbitration this year if he anywhere close to keeps up this season. The arb system isn't as much about raises as it is comps. RF's who hit .340 and put up .900+ OPSs get paid big time, and this is year #2 of arb when those numbers start to explode. Next year the same sort of numbers will get him in the range of $15 million, maybe more, if he goes through the arb system.

 

If Garcia has held out this long to be extended, it tells me that he thinks he can get paid in free agency. For what it would take to get his attention and give up free agency, I am not willing to go there.

 

How has he held out, when all indications are we never even dreamed of this discussion until mere weeks ago?

 

There does have to be a middle ground somewhere in that $60-75 million range, but it obviously is contingent on Avi and his agent believing they can continue to build on this success and get significantly more in FA when three months ago he was a DFA candidate.

 

He's always going to be weighed down by defensive metrics, so this idea of $100 million contracts seems outlandish, even when compared to Robert's deal.

 

It is an interesting discussion, though. (I wonder if they could go back and hold off at least one more season on Anderson's guaranteed deal if they would do it again?)

 

That said, there's always that risk...look at the Astros with JD Martinez, Singleton and Grossman. Domingo Santana's become a very solid OFer for Milwaukee as well, but the overall quality and depth of the Luhnow operational model makes it a moot point. Right now, the Sox are in a different boat, we simply can't afford to have too many flops or missed assessments with position prospects for this to work out, as we all know how fickle pitching prospects are in terms of health and performance (the theory of trading surplus there to cover another area of deficiency.).

Edited June 22, 2017 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

I have to say, I think your numbers are quite high above, and I am utterly lost as a result of your second paragraph. What makes you think he held out? When do you suppose an extension was offered him?

 

Bottom line, the guy is guaranteed the remainder of his $3 million owed to him this year, and probably a solid $7-8 million next year through arb. Beyond that, he is guaranteed very little. Offering him $68 million or so over 6 years allows him to have generational money with another potential shot at FA in his age 32/33 season.

 

For a guy that has basically been worse than replacement level his previous 3 seasons, I suspect that is more alluring than you are recognizing.

 

The Sox love getting their core young guys locked into long term deals as early as possible. I would put the odds near 100% that the Sox talked to him about it very early on in his time here.

[iamshack]

The Sox love getting their core young guys locked into long term deals as early as possible. I would put the odds near 100% that the Sox talked to him about it very early on in his time here.

I mean I've obviously witnessed that, but you usually have to at least show them something.

[caulfield12]

The Sox love getting their core young guys locked into long term deals as early as possible. I would put the odds near 100% that the Sox talked to him about it very early on in his time here.

 

That April before he got injured (2014) in Colorado was the only time his play warranted such a discussion.

[turnin' two]

The Sox love getting their core young guys locked into long term deals as early as possible. I would put the odds near 100% that the Sox talked to him about it very early on in his time here.

 

Well, even if they offered it "early on" the situation has certainly changed for Avi (and the Sox) since that point.

[southsider2k5]

Well, even if they offered it "early on" the situation has certainly changed for Avi (and the Sox) since that point.

 

Yes it has. Now Avi is two season away from free agency and hitting like an all-star. If you want to get him extended TODAY, you are going to have to do something to get his attention.

[southsider2k5]

That April before he got injured (2014) in Colorado was the only time his play warranted such a discussion.

 

And?

[caulfield12]

And?

 

Please elaborate at what point in Avi's previous White Sox career you would have broached extension discussions?

 

After he got booed at SoxFest?

[chitownsportsfan]

Avi Garcia is hitting 342/384/555 on 6/22 and Kyle Schwarber is a minor leaguer. Funny game, baseball.

Edited June 22, 2017 by chitownsportsfan

[southsider2k5]

Please elaborate at what point in Avi's previous White Sox career you would have broached extension discussions?

 

After he got booed at SoxFest?

 

They would have the first year when they got him, just like they do with all of the young players they want to build around.

[iamshack]

They would have the first year when they got him, just like they do with all of the young players they want to build around.

I just don't think he showed anywhere near enough to justify that...I mean he wasn't "their" guy either. He wasn't their draft pick like Timmy, and many of their other early signings were starting pitchers who had shown years of good performance.

 

Avi never really had more than a few months of good play at any give time.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I just don't think he showed anywhere near enough to justify that...I mean he wasn't "their" guy either. He wasn't their draft pick like Timmy, and many of their other early signings were starting pitchers who had shown years of good performance.

 

Avi never really had more than a few months of good play at any give time.

 

They traded Jake Peavy for him, and handed him RF right off of the bat.

[ptatc]

They traded Jake Peavy for him, and handed him RF right off of the bat.

He did look like he was ready based on his late season and playoff run with Detroit.

[iamshack]

They traded Jake Peavy for him, and handed him RF right off of the bat.

Jake Peavy was pretty much on the decline by this time, and at the time they traded him, they were coming off the second straight month in which they had the worst record in baseball.

 

Why the hell wouldn't they hand him right field?

 

That still doesn't support any notion that he should have been offered an extension.

 

The history you are referring to does not at all support the assertion you are trying to make.