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Cafardo: Cardinals interested in Avi


striker

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 12:32 PM)
I'm not a McMahon fan, would definitely want something better.

 

McMahon plays 3B (and is therefore blocked by Arenado) and is destroying AAA pitching at 22. Yes, it's the PCL, but he's hitting nearly .400 with an OPS near 1.100 and he produced a .926 OPS with a .326 average in AA before that, all while maintaining a sub 20% K rate over nearly 400 PAs. If the return is too light, I'd be happy to get an arm with upside in addition to him, but McMahon seems like a player to target to me. Or maybe you can talk them out of McMahon and Tapia, that would be a coup.

Edited by Dam8610
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I did a twitter poll. Avi + Robertson for Kelly, Flaherty, Bader

 

https://twitter.com/paulriker/status/886778081511452672

 

Surprisingly, most say White Sox say no. I actually think the Cardinals would say no. You might be able to get Kelly + some lower level guys like Perez, Alcantara and Hudson before you could get Flaherty and Bader.

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QUOTE (striker @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:33 PM)
I did a twitter poll. Avi + Robertson for Kelly, Flaherty, Bader

 

https://twitter.com/paulriker/status/886778081511452672

 

Surprisingly, most say White Sox say no. I actually think the Cardinals would say no. You might be able to get Kelly + some lower level guys like Perez, Alcantara and Hudson before you could get Flaherty and Bader.

 

Done.

 

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QUOTE (striker @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 01:33 PM)
I did a twitter poll. Avi + Robertson for Kelly, Flaherty, Bader

 

https://twitter.com/paulriker/status/886778081511452672

 

Surprisingly, most say White Sox say no. I actually think the Cardinals would say no. You might be able to get Kelly + some lower level guys like Perez, Alcantara and Hudson before you could get Flaherty and Bader.

 

I would definitely deal Avi + DRob for Kelly + Flaherty + Bader, but I doubt St. Louis would do that deal

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:00 PM)
There aren't many better prospects out there. The only better one from Colorado is Rodgers, and that would be an overpay.

 

Yep, not many 3Bs out there with 30+ HR, 10%+ BB, ~20% K potential and good defense. He would be a fine return, I'd think, for Avi. He and Tapia would have my head spinning.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:09 PM)
Yep, not many 3Bs out there with 30+ HR, 10%+ BB, ~20% K potential and good defense. He would be a fine return, I'd think, for Avi. He and Tapia would have my head spinning.

 

Agreed on this - McMahon had one thing to work on this season with the K's and he seems to have figured that out a bit. I won't say completely figured out since the PCL does strange things to the numbers - but one would have to think he is trending in the right direction.

 

Does he play good defense? I would love to get a guy that can play both ways a bit considering the talent we have brought in the past year don't scream GG defenders. MLB.com seems to think that McMahon is athletic enough for the position.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:09 PM)
Yep, not many 3Bs out there with 30+ HR, 10%+ BB, ~20% K potential and good defense. He would be a fine return, I'd think, for Avi. He and Tapia would have my head spinning.

Aren't there a lot of scouts that think McMahon won't stick at 3B?

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:19 PM)
Aren't there a lot of scouts that think McMahon won't stick at 3B?

 

Everything I've read on him indicates he's very athletic and a good defender. BA said he was the best defensive 3B in the SAL in 2014. His chances of sticking at 3B are severely limited in Colorado by this guy named Nolan Arenado, you may have heard of him.

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QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:45 PM)
Why would Rockies want Avi, they have a crowded outfield as is. Parra, Blackmon, Tapia, Desmond, Cargo, and David Dahl just started a rehabbed assignment and could be back in a few weeks. I think they have more pressing needs.

 

Why do they want J.D. Martinez?

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
Everything I've read on him indicates he's very athletic and a good defender. BA said he was the best defensive 3B in the SAL in 2014. His chances of sticking at 3B are severely limited in Colorado by this guy named Nolan Arenado, you may have heard of him.

Arenado is likely gone after next season so I doubt he'd block McMahon. But here's Longenhagen's writeup on McMahon:

 

Defensively, McMahon’s transition to first base outwardly seems like it’s being made to find a spot for McMahon in a big-league lineup that includes the godlike Nolan Arenado, but most scouts think he’ll end up there simply because he isn’t very good at third. Proponents cite the heavy move to first base as the chief reason for the struggles at the plate. Others think the issues that plagued Double-A Hartford this year (they played all of their games on the road) had something to do with it. I just don’t think McMahon is going to hit which, suffice to say, will make it hard to profile at first base. He could be a buy-low throw-in target for teams that still believe, because plenty of scouts still like this guy.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-pros...lorado-rockies/

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:09 PM)
Yep, not many 3Bs out there with 30+ HR, 10%+ BB, ~20% K potential and good defense. He would be a fine return, I'd think, for Avi. He and Tapia would have my head spinning.

That's a ridiculously optimistic projection for McMahon. Hell, that's basically Eloy's Jimenez's projection if all goes well. McMahon has some nice power potential, but nothing from a statistical standpoint has ever suggested that type of offensive player, at least not prior to this year (which I'm not buying). And everything I've read says it will be a challenge for him to stick at 3B long-term. I really think you're completely overvaluing him.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:01 PM)
That's a ridiculously optimistic projection for McMahon. Hell, that's basically Eloy's Jimenez's projection if all goes well. McMahon has some nice power potential, but nothing from a statistical standpoint has ever suggested that type of offensive player, at least not prior to this year (which I'm not buying). And everything I've read says it will be a challenge for him to stick at 3B long-term. I really think you're completely overvaluing him.

 

Key word there was potential. That said, he has mashed AA and AAA at age 22, with that 20ish% K rate throughout. And if I'm overvaluing him, great, get McMahon and Tapia from the Rockies for Avi.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:46 PM)
Why do they want J.D. Martinez?

 

Avi isn't Martinez. Martinez has a more proven track record and as a rental player commands less of a return. Also, other teams in the division have called on Martinez, Rox may just be driving up the price for division rivals.

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QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:12 PM)
Avi isn't Martinez. Martinez has a more proven track record and as a rental player commands less of a return. Also, other teams in the division have called on Martinez, Rox may just be driving up the price for division rivals.

 

You think the Tigers aren't going to ask the moon for Martinez? They probably asked for Rodgers. If the Sox can sell Avi for a good price now and undercut the Tigers while doing it, they'll be doing the next competitive roster a huge favor.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:51 PM)
Arenado is likely gone after next season so I doubt he'd block McMahon. But here's Longenhagen's writeup on McMahon:

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-pros...lorado-rockies/

 

That article was written before McMahon went off and is batting .356 - .402 - .597 in 2017

 

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:51 PM)
I just don't see Avi as part of our next contender, and I don't think there's any way he's ever going to have a BETTER season, so I'm all for moving him for a decent offer, despite his youth.

 

I agree. It would be different if he had at least 3-4 years of control left.

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:39 PM)
That article was written before McMahon went off and is batting .356 - .402 - .597 in 2017

I know but I was more focusing on the part of the writeup about his defense. But he's also doing that in the PCL right? Colorado Springs boosts offense by 30% more than Coors does. I'm not sure I buy that he's suddenly transformed into an elite hitter. His line is also being pumped up a lot by that .421 BABIP.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 04:51 PM)
I just don't see Avi as part of our next contender, and I don't think there's any way he's ever going to have a BETTER season, so I'm all for moving him for a decent offer, despite his youth.

His RF defense leaves something to be desired as well.

 

 

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:51 PM)
I just don't see Avi as part of our next contender, and I don't think there's any way he's ever going to have a BETTER season, so I'm all for moving him for a decent offer, despite his youth.

For me, I just would never feel comfortable extending him. He'd have to keep this up through the end of 2018 before I'd even consider it and by then he'd be looking at a pretty sizable contract. And honestly, I'd always worry his game would just suddenly fall apart and we'd have an albatross on our hands.

 

I'm not just willing to give him away, but if someone sees as a 3-4 WAR outfielder going forward then I think it's time to cash in.

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