Quintana

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't think draft positioning is meaningless, but I do think it is way overhyped.

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/...013/01/war4.gif

 

This is a couple years old, but should tell you that draft position is definitely not overhyped.

[FT35]

All I can say is I agree. The draft is a ridiculous crapshoot. The best way to win is sign guys like Abreu and (hopefully) Robert. I'm in favor of that cause I could give a s*** about how much money Jerry spends since the chairman and his peeps do not care about us spending 9 bucks for a hot dog and whatever it costs to park at a game.

Add to signing guys like Robert SMART drafting when your pick comes up as well as FREE AGENCY, you know, signing guys who have already done it and proven they can do it.

You can't change people's minds. Draft-niks won't admit it, but they are part of the sports cliche -- you know, the one that always is more interested in future names than current ones. I won't change my opinion; they won't change theirs. So be it. But there are so many busts out there who are deemed "prospects."

 

Absolutely! But...I don't think it's that simple. First off--to get 1 of these guys you have to outbid all the other teams. Once you win that bid ($$$$$), you're still facing the bust factor (Viciedo). And if you MISS, then you are WAY behind because most of your $ is still wrapped up in that bust. Building a team is kind of like business sales. Cold calling if you will. Yes, draft picks are like cold calling! You win with volume. You get enough of them and some pan out--most will fail. From a team construction standpoint, you want to make sure you start your cold calling with a good qualified lead list, but even those surefire prospects fall through like many "can't-miss" sales deals do. BUT, it still shouldn't stop you from the process because there aren't too many other ways of doing it since we can't see into the future to see who turns out to be the best players. It's also the most affordable way to add players to your system. Adding Abreu's and Robert's is AWESOME, (even if they have a higher likelihood of success) but unsustainable from a cost standpoint and VERY risky when you factor in the bust potential.

 

Free Agents and "names of today"trades aren't the best bet either. Has it worked for us? Adam Dunn? Jake Peavy? Adam LaRoche? Todd Frazier? Jeff Samardzija? Brett Lawrie? Jeff Keppinger? Connor Gillespie? Dioneer Navarro? Alex Avila? Austin Jackson? Jimmy Rollins? The Great Cody Asche? That's a LOT of money and a LOT of missing to add 1 maybe 2 OK pieces to your core...Melky?? Robertson?? Those guys are your harvest and it cost hundreds of millions of dollars and a LOT of losing to add them. In the same amount of time, we've added Sale, Anderson, Rodon, Sanchez, Avi, Leury, Davidson, Moncada, Giolito, Kopech and a handful of other nice pieces by going the prospect route. These guys are making nothing compared to the FA busts. When you have to add a bulk number of players to an organization, the rebuild/draft way is the best way to do that. When you get good and you're on the verge of competing for the MLB playoffs...THAT's when you drop some coin on a FA or acquiring a big name in a trade who can push you over the top. IE...Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller...etc...

Edited June 27, 2017 by FT35

[jenksycat]

All I can say is I agree. The draft is a ridiculous crapshoot. The best way to win is sign guys like Abreu and (hopefully) Robert. I'm in favor of that cause I could give a s*** about how much money Jerry spends since the chairman and his peeps do not care about us spending 9 bucks for a hot dog and whatever it costs to park at a game.

Add to signing guys like Robert SMART drafting when your pick comes up as well as FREE AGENCY, you know, signing guys who have already done it and proven they can do it.

You can't change people's minds. Draft-niks won't admit it, but they are part of the sports cliche -- you know, the one that always is more interested in future names than current ones. I won't change my opinion; they won't change theirs. So be it. But there are so many busts out there who are deemed "prospects."

 

Yep, if there's one thing baseball has shown us by the Yankees winning the last 10 championships in a row is that the only possible way to win is to sign every available 30+ year old free agent. There's no shot for a small market team to draft and develop well unless they have a 200 million dollar payroll. If you look at the last couple decades of champs, most of those teams don't have a core of young talent brought up through their system, its almost always old past their prime veterans signed to big contracts.

[ron883]

forrestgump775 strikes again

[Bob Sacamano]

forrestgump775 strikes again

 

/thread

[Bob Sacamano]

Bless those who go pay to watch this horrific baseball franchise. Thank God for 2005.

 

*Quoting him from the game thread yesterday*

 

Yeah, it was so much better watching them "go for it" only to still watch horrific baseball. We've all been saying this for about 5 years, hence the new direction.

Edited June 27, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Eminor3rd]

All I can say is I agree. The draft is a ridiculous crapshoot. The best way to win is sign guys like Abreu and (hopefully) Robert. I'm in favor of that cause I could give a s*** about how much money Jerry spends since the chairman and his peeps do not care about us spending 9 bucks for a hot dog and whatever it costs to park at a game.

Add to signing guys like Robert SMART drafting when your pick comes up as well as FREE AGENCY, you know, signing guys who have already done it and proven they can do it.

You can't change people's minds. Draft-niks won't admit it, but they are part of the sports cliche -- you know, the one that always is more interested in future names than current ones. I won't change my opinion; they won't change theirs. So be it. But there are so many busts out there who are deemed "prospects."

 

You so clearly don't follow baseball.

[Bob Sacamano]

All I can say is I agree. The draft is a ridiculous crapshoot. The best way to win is sign guys like Abreu and (hopefully) Robert. I'm in favor of that cause I could give a s*** about how much money Jerry spends since the chairman and his peeps do not care about us spending 9 bucks for a hot dog and whatever it costs to park at a game.

Add to signing guys like Robert SMART drafting when your pick comes up as well as FREE AGENCY, you know, signing guys who have already done it and proven they can do it.

You can't change people's minds. Draft-niks won't admit it, but they are part of the sports cliche -- you know, the one that always is more interested in future names than current ones. I won't change my opinion; they won't change theirs. So be it. But there are so many busts out there who are deemed "prospects."

 

We better never see you complain about a free agent signing beyond this point.

 

EDIT: I'm sure we can look back at recent signings and trades of prospects and find that you've complained.

Edited June 27, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Dick Allen]

Obviously the higher the pick the better your odds, but it all comes down to scouting and luck. Many times your second or third choice turns out better than your first. That piece a couple of weeks ago about the best player chosen in a particular spot was pretty eye popping. The draft is about 50 years old. Chad Billingsley being the best #24 pick of all time. Doesn't really make the 24th pick seem so valuable.

[Bob Sacamano]

Obviously the higher the pick the better your odds, but it all comes down to scouting and luck. Many times your second or third choice turns out better than your first. That piece a couple of weeks ago about the best player chosen in a particular spot was pretty eye popping. The draft is about 50 years old. Chad Billingsley being the best #24 pick of all time. Doesn't really make the 24th pick seem so valuable.

 

You also give yourself more money to spend in said draft. And it's all about putting yourself in a position to draft the best player that you want. That guy might go top 5 and you want to be there to get him. But like you said, it comes down to scouts.

Edited June 27, 2017 by soxfan2014

[steveno89]

You also give yourself more money to spend in said draft. And it's all about putting yourself in a position to draft the best player that you want. That guy might go top 5 and you want to be there to get him. But like you said, it comes down to scouts.

 

Keeping the focus on Quintana, with the deadline soon approaching we can imagine the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, possibly Red Sox? possibly Cubs? Diamondbacks? Rockies? to be potential suitors for Quintana.

 

 

[striker]

Keeping the focus on Quintana, with the deadline soon approaching we can imagine the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, possibly Red Sox? possibly Cubs? Diamondbacks? Rockies? to be potential suitors for Quintana.

I think the Brewers are a wildcard. They have the prospect depth. Whether they would part with either Hader or Brinson is another question.

[iamshack]

Keeping the focus on Quintana, with the deadline soon approaching we can imagine the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, possibly Red Sox? possibly Cubs? Diamondbacks? Rockies? to be potential suitors for Quintana.

I'll be interested if any of these contenders try to "beat the rush" and try to acquire a starter in the next week or two rather than waiting around towards the end of July.

 

Would love to be able to read the texts between Cashman and Hahn tonight as Q is pitching...

[Bob Sacamano]

I'll be interested if any of these contenders try to "beat the rush" and try to acquire a starter in the next week or two rather than waiting around towards the end of July.

 

Would love to be able to read the texts between Cashman and Hahn tonight as Q is pitching...

 

Oh man...we need a typical Q start today.

[Dam8610]

Obviously the higher the pick the better your odds, but it all comes down to scouting and luck. Many times your second or third choice turns out better than your first. That piece a couple of weeks ago about the best player chosen in a particular spot was pretty eye popping. The draft is about 50 years old. Chad Billingsley being the best #24 pick of all time. Doesn't really make the 24th pick seem so valuable.

 

Mike Trout should be the most valuable 24th pick of all time. And in a White Sox uniform.

[harfman77]

I think the Brewers are a wildcard. They have the prospect depth. Whether they would part with either Hader or Brinson is another question.

 

I dont think you need either one of them in a deal with the Brewers, and they are probably not inclined to deal them if they are going to be in the race this year as both have had stints on the ML roster.

 

A package of Ray, Ortiz, Dubon, and either Medeiros or Bickford would be solid. Three guys with likely floors in the majors and a fourth with an allstar level ceiling.

[steveno89]

I think the Brewers are a wildcard. They have the prospect depth. Whether they would part with either Hader or Brinson is another question.

 

I don't see the Brewers emptying out their minor league system for a high profile starter at the deadline. They will need to rely on farm grown talent to stock their mlb roster moving forward.

 

The preliminary conversations have all taken place, with Hahn telling the league that Quintana is on the block and being auctioned to the highest bidder essentially.

[ChiSox59]

I don't see the Brewers emptying out their minor league system for a high profile starter at the deadline. They will need to rely on farm grown talent to stock their mlb roster moving forward.

 

The preliminary conversations have all taken place, with Hahn telling the league that Quintana is on the block and being auctioned to the highest bidder essentially.

 

The thing about Q is that they can build their rotation around him. I don't see them emptying their farm for a rental, but I think a deal like Brinson (may have to be Ray instead), Diaz, Dubon and Bickford for Q and Swarzak could be sold to their fans. The deal with Ray feels a bit light for me, but with Brinson probably feels a bit steep for them.

[steveno89]

The thing about Q is that they can build their rotation around him. I don't see them emptying their farm for a rental, but I think a deal like Brinson (may have to be Ray instead), Diaz, Dubon and Bickford for Q and Swarzak could be sold to their fans. The deal with Ray feels a bit light for me, but with Brinson probably feels a bit steep for them.

 

Ray's high K% rate does not scare you?

 

I'd have to insist on Brinson in any Quintana deal, with more needing to be added as well. Personally, I don't love the Brewers as a trade fit. They have quality pieces, but I highly doubt they go all in at the deadline.

 

Yankees = Frazier + Adams or Sheffield + Andujar or Florial + Flyer

 

Astros = Tucker + Perez or Paulino or Whitley + JD Davis + Flyer

 

Dodgers = Verdugo + Buehler + solid third piece + Flyer

 

These could all be potential frameworks for a deal. I feel the Sox need to be getting two high quality prospects in return, a very good third piece with some upside and a low level flyer.

[ChiSox59]

Ray's high K% rate does not scare you?

 

I'd have to insist on Brinson in any Quintana deal, with more needing to be added as well. Personally, I don't love the Brewers as a trade fit. They have quality pieces, but I highly doubt they go all in at the deadline.

 

Yankees = Frazier + Adams or Sheffield + Andujar or Florial + Flyer

 

Astros = Tucker + Perez or Paulino or Whitley + JD Davis + Flyer

 

Dodgers = Verdugo + Buehler + solid third piece + Flyer

 

These could all be potential frameworks for a deal. I feel the Sox need to be getting two high quality prospects in return, a very good third piece with some upside and a low level flyer.

 

Re read my post. I literally said I'd much prefer Brinson to Ray.

 

Brinson, Diaz, Dubon and Bickford is a pretty good package, and Rick could definitely shoot for Ortiz or Hader instead of Bickford to make it a real home run (but that ain't gonna happen).

 

 

[steveno89]

Re read my post. I literally said I'd much prefer Brinson to Ray.

 

Brinson, Diaz, Dubon and Bickford is a pretty good package, and Rick could definitely shoot for Ortiz or Hader instead of Bickford to make it a real home run (but that ain't gonna happen).

 

I totally get you prefer Brinson, no worries.

 

That is a pretty solid package, but again do you really see the Brewers giving up four of their best prospects right now?

 

I tried to come up with some realistic scenarios of trades that each side could agree upon.

Edited June 27, 2017 by steveno89

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The Brewers had a highly touted farm system entering the season but wow have their top 10 prospects had a tough go at it this year. Outside of Brinson's AAA stint (he's been terrible since his promotion to the big league club), the stats from their top 10 guys are UGLY overall. Ray striking out a 31.5% clip in A+ at age 22 (turns 23 in September) is an ominous sign.

[steveno89]

The Brewers had a highly touted farm system entering the season but wow have their top 10 prospects had a tough go at it this year. Outside of Brinson's AAA stint (he's been terrible since his promotion to the big league club), the stats from their top 10 guys are UGLY overall. Ray striking out a 31.5% clip in A+ at age 22 (turns 23 in September) is an ominous sign.

 

Ray's K% rate scares me for sure. Ortiz has been solid, but the rest of their top 10 prospects have had mediocre or down seasons for sure.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Ray's K% rate scares me for sure. Ortiz has been solid, but the rest of their top 10 prospects have had mediocre or down seasons for sure.

Based on his numbers and age, some parallels to a younger Jared Mitchell..

[Balta1701]

Based on his numbers and age, some parallels to a younger Jared Mitchell..

Unless he's going to absolutely destroy his leg and cost himself 2+ seasons of development next year, then Jared Mitchell is a pretty poor comparison.