zach collins

[fathom]

If he were hitting .330 and 15HR, I would not be complaining.

 

Been saying that all year, rather he show he can project to be a big league hitter and core piece going forward. If the worst case scenario was that he was a slugging DH, that's better than what we are seeing at this moment.

[steveno89]

Been saying that all year, rather he show he can project to be a big league hitter and core piece going forward. If the worst case scenario was that he was a slugging DH, that's better than what we are seeing at this moment.

 

He badly needs a hot streak where he strings together several multi hit games to get his bat going. Drawing walks is great, but he absolutely needs to be making more contact.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Let's look at the facts here. Collins was "only" a .300 hitter for his first two years in Miami. That bumped to .360 during his draft year. However he's slumping at .222 in pro ball in almost one full season of at bats. His strikeout rate in college was also relatively high at almost 20%. He has a hitch in his swing.

 

So aside from the good year he had as a junior, he has been a below average to poor contact hitter. It's becoming apparent that the hit tool is overhyped. He's still has plus plate discipline and can draw a ton of walks (I wish prospect evaluators would decouple plate discipline from hit tools when evaluating prospects). He'd most likely have to fix his swing to have success in upper minors and big leagues. Even if he reaches the majors, he's likely no more than a .230 hitter, but with an OBP of .300 or better and a .400 SLG.

[Dam8610]

Let's look at the facts here. Collins was "only" a .300 hitter for his first two years in Miami. That bumped to .360 during his draft year. However he's slumping at .222 in pro ball in almost one full season of at bats. His strikeout rate in college was also relatively high at almost 20%. He has a hitch in his swing.

 

So aside from the good year he had as a junior, he has been a below average to poor contact hitter. It's becoming apparent that the hit tool is overhyped. He's still has plus plate discipline and can draw a ton of walks (I wish prospect evaluators would decouple plate discipline from hit tools when evaluating prospects). He'd most likely have to fix his swing to have success in upper minors and big leagues. Even if he reaches the majors, he's likely no more than a .230 hitter, but with an OBP of .300 or better and a .400 SLG.

 

If you get a .230/.350/.450 slash from a MLB C who can throw out baserunners and frame and call well, that's a win. That said, he's also still 22, so he has time to fix his swing.

[southsider2k5]

For those with the ability to see into the future with such clarity, can I get the winning powerball numbers for the next drawing?

[bmags]

For those with the ability to see into the future with such clarity, can I get the winning powerball numbers for the next drawing?

 

Good thing you are indiana

[fathom]

For those with the ability to see into the future with such clarity, can I get the winning powerball numbers for the next drawing?

 

Say he does hit around .210 this year. Who is the last Major Leaguer to hit that poorly in their first year of pro ball out of college and turn into a productive hitter? Actual question and not a statement.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Good thing you are indiana

 

[sips tax free soda]

[southsider2k5]

Say he does hit around .210 this year. Who is the last Major Leaguer to hit that poorly in their first year of pro ball out of college and turn into a productive hitter? Actual question and not a statement.

 

No idea, though I will point out the progress that Micker Adolfo has made this year.

[Dick Allen]

As a 22 year old, Carlton Fisk hit .229 with a .763 OPS in AA. 2 years later he was ROY hitting .293 with a .909 OPS.

[fathom]

As a 22 year old, Carlton Fisk hit .229 with a .763 OPS in AA. 2 years later he was ROY hitting .293 with a .909 OPS.

 

Good stuff thanks

[bmags]

I'd want to focus specifically on catchers. I wish and hope collins finishes up at least around .245+ this year. But I am trying to respect the amount of information and technique he is trying to apply away from hitting. I am not saying this isn't a bad sign that he may have difficulty with contact, just that I'm going to give him time to develop before moving him to 15-20 range.

[Dam8610]

As a 22 year old, Carlton Fisk hit .229 with a .763 OPS in AA. 2 years later he was ROY hitting .293 with a .909 OPS.

 

So you're saying it's possible to perform poorly in the minors at 22 and still wind up being a good or even great player? Good to know.

[chitownsportsfan]

No reason to panic but if he's hitting 210 in Kannapolis this time next year he's hardly a prospect. Next year is the make or break. If he sticks at catcher he wont' have to hit much more than 220/300/400 in the bigs anyways.

[chitownsportsfan]

So you're saying it's possible to perform poorly in the minors at 22 and still wind up being a good or even great player? Good to know.

 

I love these logical fallacies. I see them all the time on the Bulls RealGM board. Hey, look, one time a player came out of nowhere to be really good so that must mean this guy that also sucks will become just like that one guy that one time!

 

 

DA does it constantly here. So does Hawk.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I think people are discounting how hard it is for a young catcher to improve defensively and offensively. A lot of his time and energy has probably gone into his defense.

 

I would look at recent A's call up Bruce Maxwell as a comp. He was a high 2nd round pick that was questionable to stick at catcher but had a good bat. He Struggled and didn't put up an OPS over .750 in his 1st 3 pro years in the minors, but his D supposedly improved drastically. Suddenly in 2016 he started raking and hasn't stopped so far in the majors (albeit small sample size). So yeah, it would be naive to not be at least a little worried, but all hope certainly isn't lost.

[Dam8610]

I love these logical fallacies. I see them all the time on the Bulls RealGM board. Hey, look, one time a player came out of nowhere to be really good so that must mean this guy that also sucks will become just like that one guy that one time!

 

 

DA does it constantly here. So does Hawk.

 

Possible =/= Will happen, but some here act as though it's impossible, which seems just as logically fallacious, if not moreso, to me.

[Blackout Friday]

As a 22 year old, Carlton Fisk hit .229 with a .763 OPS in AA. 2 years later he was ROY hitting .293 with a .909 OPS.

Meanwhile, the other 99.99%....

 

I'm not even saying time to panic on Collins, but come on, man.

[beautox]

Meanwhile, the other 99.99%....

 

I'm not even saying time to panic on Collins, but come on, man.

to be fair to DA; fathom asked for "Who is the last Major Leaguer to hit that poorly in their first year of pro ball out of college and turn into a productive hitter?". Fisk fits the description obviously a bit tongue in cheek but if you look at a lot of catchers selected in the top 10 rounds a fair amount of them struggle and its for reasons stated in this thread catching is hard, learning to catch in profeshional baseball is even harder especially when the vast majority of the industry thinks you'll be moved off it by the time you sign. So yes people should be looking at what Collins has done on his defensive game and feel good knowing that this kid has a great work ethic and could very well become an average to slighly above average Catcher. People seem to forget how Flowers was viewed when he first came over, it was offensive first with little chance to stick and if he does he'll be a butcher, the converse of that became reality. All i'm saying is catchers take the longest amount of time to develop its a reason why a lot of players get moved off their because organizations want their major league ready bats in the line-up ASAP, Harper is a recent example and for a sox legened look no further than Konerko.

 

as for another productive hitter to answer Fathom's question:

 

Mickey Tettleton, drafted in the 5th round

 

age 22 @ A

 

.243/.376/.357

 

the next year @ AA

 

231/.345/.349 before he got called up to Oakland

 

side note, Tettleton is a player i've compared Collins to in the past in a number of conversations.

[thxfrthmmrs]

For those with the ability to see into the future with such clarity, can I get the winning powerball numbers for the next drawing?

 

MLB prospects are total crapshoot to begin with. But starting your career off as a low .200 hitter just puts greater odds against the prospect to succeed. Sure he might turn it around like Carlton Fisk, but 99.9% of the time he does not.

[Hatchetman]

RE Tettleton

 

Many unusual things happened to power numbers in the early 1990s

[fathom]

RE Tettleton

 

Many unusual things happened to power numbers in the early 1990s

 

Does this mean Collins will be in Little Big League 2

[beautox]

Does this mean Collins will be in Little Big League 2

 

The Gay Porno?

[ptatc]

Been saying that all year, rather he show he can project to be a big league hitter and core piece going forward. If the worst case scenario was that he was a slugging DH, that's better than what we are seeing at this moment.

I don't know. A catcher who has an OPS over 800 is valuable no matter how he gets the 800.

[Anderdale]

Interesting to me that he was chosen to play in the futures game. Has to be solely because of his defense.