zach collins

[ChiSox59]

He's going to hit though. Even if he's a high OBP with power, if he stays at catcher, it's a win. If he's like a .265/.365/.450 guy with a bunch of homers and walks, he's likely an All-Star behind the plate.

 

Sounds alot like a young Brian McCann, which obviously would be fantastic.

[steveno89]

Same here.

 

Has Collin's bat underperformed our expectations so far? Yes, but that does not mean that it will not come around eventually. We need to be patient and let our prospects go through struggles and develop.

[Dam8610]

Honestly, I think at this point that the best case scenario for Collins is he becomes comparable to Mike Napoli. Napoli's also another guy that is incredibly patient at the plate, who sees a ton of pitches per plate appearance.

 

Napoli was the comp he got on draft day. Hopefully he can be that with better defense and a longer career behind the plate. Napoli was an All-Star and one of the best offensive catchers in the league for the better part of a decade. If the White Sox get that out of Collins, or maybe even slightly better, it's a win.

[username]

A lot of the posters are mis-applying things like K-rate to say Collins won't succeed. Most guys with high K-rates are free swingers. Collins is the opposite - if anything he sees too many pitches. His strikeouts aren't due to a lack of contact skills.

 

You can teach a guy to be more aggressive early in the count. You can't teach a guy pitch recognition, and by all accounts Collins is great with that. If he can adjust and swing more early in the count his contact rate and ISO should skyrocket.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Napoli was the comp he got on draft day. Hopefully he can be that with better defense and a longer career behind the plate. Napoli was an All-Star and one of the best offensive catchers in the league for the better part of a decade. If the White Sox get that out of Collins, or maybe even slightly better, it's a win.

 

 

I think Brian McCann was actually his comp on draft day

[chitownsportsfan]

In today's MLB, with his current hit tool, there is no way he's a 265 hitter, ever. I'm hoping he can stick behind C and in his prime, 25-30, produce some 230/330/400 lines. If he's a decent catcher, that's about 2-3 WAR.

[Dick Allen]

In today's MLB, with his current hit tool, there is no way he's a 265 hitter, ever. I'm hoping he can stick behind C and in his prime, 25-30, produce some 230/330/400 lines. If he's a decent catcher, that's about 2-3 WAR.

If a guy can hit .230, and plays every day, the no way he can hit .265 is silly. It's 17.5 hits per 500 AB.

[chitownsportsfan]

If a guy can hit .230, and plays every day, the no way he can hit .265 is silly. It's 17.5 hits per 500 AB.

 

yea it's that easy. Tell it to Todd maybe the Sox will hire you as a hitting coach. I always wonder why I unignore your posts. Someone smarter than me with probability can calculate the odds of a 230 hitter fluking into a 265 season. I'm sure it's possible. Just like a coin can land on heads 4 times in a row.

[steveno89]

yea it's that easy. Tell it to Todd maybe the Sox will hire you as a hitting coach. I always wonder why I unignore your posts. Someone smarter than me with probability can calculate the odds of a 230 hitter fluking into a 265 season. I'm sure it's possible. Just like a coin can land on heads 4 times in a row.

 

I'll take my chances that a patient hitter like Collins eventually figures things out vs. a player who rarely walks developing plate discipline. Sure, Collins is struggling at the plate, but he is still drawing a ton of walks which is not easy to teach.

 

All he needs is a good hot streak to bring his numbers up to a very respectable level for a catching prospect.

[Dick Allen]

yea it's that easy. Tell it to Todd maybe the Sox will hire you as a hitting coach. I always wonder why I unignore your posts. Someone smarter than me with probability can calculate the odds of a 230 hitter fluking into a 265 season. I'm sure it's possible. Just like a coin can land on heads 4 times in a row.

LOL..Frazier has hit .260 before. Never let facts get in the way of your ridiculous posts.

[harfman77]

I'll take my chances that a patient hitter like Collins eventually figures things out vs. a player who rarely walks developing plate discipline. Sure, Collins is struggling at the plate, but he is still drawing a ton of walks which is not easy to teach.

 

All he needs is a good hot streak to bring his numbers up to a very respectable level for a catching prospect.

 

The problem is that he still has a pretty high 28% K rate to go along with his 19% BB rate. Having such high rates in both is generally a sign of a guy being too passive at the plate. He is still young, and I think the Sox are more concerned right now with his defensive work to put too much pressure on him to be more aggressive at the plate.

[caulfield12]

Merkin article on Collins

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/240829400/wh...ted-by-defense/

[fathom]

Anyone else listen to Larry talk about Collins on the south side Sox podcast? Yikes, hopefully he starts making more contact.

[beautox]

Anyone else listen to Larry talk about Collins on the south side Sox podcast? Yikes, hopefully he starts making more contact.

The same larry that s*** all over Semien and said he wouldn't be able to stick in the middle infield much less SS? yeah I listened and rolled my eyes.

[rodh]

Following is part of a post I made about Collins back in August 2016.

 

[ I follow the draft with great interest and suffice to say I was not a fan of the Collins pick and have a draft bias against his profile as a hitter. While his College stats show he

 

1. Has plate discipline (high walk total)

2. Good batting average

3. Good power

 

the fact that he struck out between 4-5 ABs (excluding walk count) is very concerning. As the prospect transitions to professional ball their strike out rate tends to increase especially as they move up to higher milb levels.

]

 

The premise of my analysis in my previous post is if a College hitter strikes out every 4-5 ABs against college pitchers then it is unlikely they will succeed against superior professional pitchers. Looking back thru WSox draft history there are many failed prospects who fit this profile and it is difficult to find any that have succeeded. Maybe mechanical changes can help Collins (i.e. tone down that big pre-swing waggle) but I just don't like selecting a College hitter like Collins this high in the draft. This years draft crop of College hitters had better contact rates and it will be interesting to follow their progression in milb.

 

 

[Anderdale]

I have noticed when I watch his at bats that he often is ahead 2-0 to start. The pitcher usually fights back and he strikes out on a full count. Why is he not swinging at the 2-0 pitch? Or is he swinging and missing? I wish I could actually watch him play. Maybe if he starts playing a little more aggressive, he will make more contact.

 

Did he break 30% k rate tonight? I don't care who you are, that's reason to have serious concern.

 

I hate it for him. I've followed him since he went to Miami. Heck I'm a adopted White Sox fan because of him joining the organization. I still have lots of hope but I'm beginning to doubt.

[Anderdale]

The same larry that s*** all over Semien and said he wouldn't be able to stick in the middle infield much less SS? yeah I listened and rolled my eyes.

 

That's good to know. I've never heard of this guy but his talk on collins had me feeling down

[Lillian]

Because he has recently been hitting more homers, yet striking out more, in a previous post, I suggested that he may be swinging for the fences. In checking the game logs, I discovered that he has drawn the "hat trick" 8 times, this season. Interesting that in 4 of those games, he also had a homer, no other hits, just one homer, in each of those 4 games. His last 5 games seem to make the point even more dramatically; 4 hat tricks and 3 homers, with no other hits. I wonder if he has an injury, and if not, it seems likely that he is swinging for the fences. Whatever is causing this troubling development, let's hope it stops.

[beautox]

That's good to know. I've never heard of this guy but his talk on collins had me feeling down

There are legit concerns with regards to Collins but having said that there are reasons for hope as well. It would appear to me having watched him a fair bit that he is being a bit too passive at the plate and relying on his discipline instead of being a bit more aggressive when he is up or neutral in the count. Catcher is the hardest position to develop, its not uncommon for people to view 25 to 27 year olds in AAA as "real" catching prospects. If Collins only becomes a .230 hitter behind the dish with his plate discipline and power he will be a regular. I doubt he starts next year at A+ and AA will be a test for his hit tool and moving beyond his discipline as a crutch.

[beautox]

6) Zack Collins, C, Grade B+: Age 22, first round pick in 2016 from University of Miami Hurricanes; hitting .218/.363/.440 with 15 homers, 64 walks, 101 whiffs in 284 at-bats in High-A; showing expected power and patience but with a concerning strikeout rate; needs to improve receiving some but has also thrown out 41% of runners; despite low batting average I’d hold the grade steady right now.

 

link

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

Following is part of a post I made about Collins back in August 2016.

 

[ I follow the draft with great interest and suffice to say I was not a fan of the Collins pick and have a draft bias against his profile as a hitter. While his College stats show he

 

1. Has plate discipline (high walk total)

2. Good batting average

3. Good power

 

the fact that he struck out between 4-5 ABs (excluding walk count) is very concerning. As the prospect transitions to professional ball their strike out rate tends to increase especially as they move up to higher milb levels.

]

 

The premise of my analysis in my previous post is if a College hitter strikes out every 4-5 ABs against college pitchers then it is unlikely they will succeed against superior professional pitchers. Looking back thru WSox draft history there are many failed prospects who fit this profile and it is difficult to find any that have succeeded. Maybe mechanical changes can help Collins (i.e. tone down that big pre-swing waggle) but I just don't like selecting a College hitter like Collins this high in the draft. This years draft crop of College hitters had better contact rates and it will be interesting to follow their progression in milb.

 

He only hit .300 his first 2 years at Miami. That isn't a great BA for a college hitter, certainly not for a first round pick. If the that is the real Zack Collins, and the .360 hitter from his junior year is just an outlier, then based on college and pro stats in 3 out of the last 4 years you have a below average to poor hitter, someone who can work the count and also strikeout a bunch at the same time with average to above average defense. That adds to about a .220/.320/.400 hitter at the big leagues if he gets there. But of course he won't hit .220 every year, some years he may hit .240 and become a viable starter (much better than what we get out of Narvaez and Kevan Smith), and some years he may hit below the mendoza line and work himself back to the minor leagues. That's what I expect out of Collins at this point.

[steveno89]

He only hit .300 his first 2 years at Miami. That isn't a great BA for a college hitter, certainly not for a first round pick. If the that is the real Zack Collins, and the .360 hitter from his junior year is just an outlier, then based on college and pro stats in 3 out of the last 4 years you have a below average to poor hitter, someone who can work the count and also strikeout a bunch at the same time with average to above average defense. That adds to about a .220/.320/.400 hitter at the big leagues if he gets there. But of course he won't hit .220 every year, some years he may hit .240 and become a viable starter (much better than what we get out of Narvaez and Kevan Smith), and some years he may hit below the mendoza line and work himself back to the minor leagues. That's what I expect out of Collins at this point.

 

I'm still a bit annoyed that the Sox passed over Kyle Lewis in favor of Collins, but it's still early enough that Collins could work out. A starting caliber mlb catcher is a very valuable player and hard to find.

[Quin]

What in the hell is the Kyle Lewis obsession? What has he shown that someone like Rutherford hasn't?

[yesterday333]

What in the hell is the Kyle Lewis obsession? What has he shown that someone like Rutherford hasn't?

I don't get the obsession of pining over past draft prospects at all. Who somebody wanted should have no relevance to how our guy is perceived.

[steveno89]

What in the hell is the Kyle Lewis obsession? What has he shown that someone like Rutherford hasn't?

 

Lewis has shown power, both in college and limited pro sample size. I'm still high on Rutherford, but eventually the power will have to start showing up if he is going to stick as a corner outfielder.

 

I'm not obsessed with Lewis, but feel is is a better overall prospect than Collins at this stage. I get organizationally we needed a catcher, but I think we fell in love with Collins' 2016 junior season. Lewis raked in college, albeit at a smaller program, for two full seasons.

 

What is done is done, but I'm still allowed to respectfully disagree with the organization's draft decision from 2016.