BP mid-season top 50

[NCsoxfan]

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Some selected ones from BP's midseason top 50

 

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox

 

Why He’ll Succeed: Moncada is a true five-tool player, with potential plus or better grades in all five slots. Slot that in at an up-the-middle-spot, throw in a dash of 70-grade pop, and you have the recipe for a perennial all-star.

 

Why He Might Fail: Moncada may end up more of a four-tool player, and when the missing tool is hit, the profile can get volatile. There’s potential for a lot of swing-and-miss here, and while a .230 or .240 hitting second baseman with pop is still a regular, it’s not an impact one. There’s also more true ‘bust’ potential than you’d like as your number one prospect, but hey, we put a pitcher who immediately blew out at one preseason. Risk doesn’t bother us.

 

4. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals

 

Why He’ll Succeed: Hey there, it’s another potential five-tool up-the-middle player. Robles is a sure shot centerfielder whose plus-plus speed will cause havoc on the bases and hoover up balls on the dirt. Oh yeah, he can really hit too, and some evaluators think there is average-or-better power to come. That’s a monster player.

 

Why He Might Fail: The offensive tools require a fair bit more projection than the defensive ones, and Robles may end up more of a Manny Margot type. Actually it feels like we wrote almost this same entry about Margot last year.

 

8. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs

 

Why He’ll Succeed: Jimenez is the first prospect on our list that is likely to end up pretty far right on the defensive spectrum. So you’d expect a hell of a bat. Jimenez looks like he will deliver with thirty home run pop and more hit tool utility and approach than you’d expect from the still-accurate-descriptor “classic right field profile.”

 

Why He Might Fail: Jimenez is the first prospect on our list who is likely to end up pretty far right on the defensive spectrum. So there better be a hell of a bat.

 

11. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

 

Why He’ll Succeed: He’s 19 and mashing in Double-A, after mashing in Advanced-A, after mashing in A. The tools back up the performance and he’s closer to the majors than you think. He might end up sacrificing some hit for pop, but he potentially pairs that with a centerfield profile. And it’s significant pop.

 

Why He Might Fail: In five years he has a chance to be 24, and the swing-and-miss might eat up his offensive value while the body forces him to right field.

 

12. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals

 

Why He’ll Succeed: He’s been dubbed “The Dominican Bryce Harper.” You really need more? Okay fine, it’s a classic right field profile with a short stroke that portends continued good contact and produces surprising pop. Maybe he’s not Bryce Harper, but Nomar Mazara sure seems possible.

 

Why He Might Fail: Nomar Mazara actually hasn’t been great yet? Now we think both Mazara and Soto will get there in the end, but you have to hit an awful lot to be a good right fielder.

 

14. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

 

Why He’ll Succeed: After having everyone tell me the power would come this offseason while I gave them the side eye, welp, here it is.

 

Why He Might Fail: He’s played more and more right field each year, and power against Double-A arms may not translate to better ones. The old school swing plane is unusual enough that major league arms might be able to exploit it.

 

22. Fernando Tatis, Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

 

Why He’ll Succeed: The plus power/speed combo ends up carrying the profile at whatever position he ends up. And hoo boy are the early returns there encouraging.

 

Why He Might Fail: That position is unlikely to be shortstop and there is risk that he whiffs enough that the power doesn’t play in games, and he isn’t on base enough to utilize his speed.

 

25. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox

 

Why He’ll Succeed: The 105 report may have been a wonky gun, but Kopech is no stranger to triple digit heat, and he may have the highest sitting velocity of any pitcher at any level, majors or minors (sorry Thor). There’s a plus slider lurking in the profile too. He doesn’t need much of a change or command bump to be a scary starting pitching prospect.

 

Why He Might Fail: He does need a change and command bump though. And while you don’t need to be too fine with 100-mph gas, Kopech has struggled to throw strikes with his arsenal and has already set a career high for IP in a season in 2017. There’s legitimate questions about his ability to start, and 100 mph and a plus slider isn’t as special in the pen as it was even five years ago.

 

31. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox

 

Why He’ll Succeed: I mean, it will look really bad if the only OFP 8 reports we have in the archive are all Giolito and he’s just a setup dude. So here’s hoping the stuff is starting to come back as reports have indicated.

 

Why He Might Fail: Well, we now have a few years of reports that the fastball velocity is down, the fastball command is fringy, and the curveball command is worse than that. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect, I have been told, and a late-inning reliever outcome doesn’t look so bad now.

 

42. Alec Hansen, RHP, Chicago White Sox

 

Why He’ll Succeed: He’s a big, durable righty that projects to have a plus fastball, plus curve, and average change. Yes, we are still in that mid-rotation starter range.

 

Why He Might Fail: The change isn’t there yet, the command isn’t there yet. He might be better suited to relief. You know the drill here.

 

 

[bmags]

Juan Soto at 12 is interesting.

[Buehrlesque]

It's an interesting list. Huge jumps for some favorite targets: Soto, Acuna, Buehler. Nice to see Hansen in there!

[bmags]

There was also this at the end re: Robert FYI:

N.B. From the reports we were able to compile, it seems obvious that Luis Robert is—broadly speaking—a top 50 prospect in baseball. Picking where he falls on the top 50, however, is akin to throwing a dart until we have actual stateside looks to add to our portfolio of information. This is a continuation of sorts from my Lourdes Gurriel essay from our preseason Blue Jays list. It’s probably unavoidable that we’ll have to deal with this in the offseason—we did rank Kevin Maitan preseason after all—but the backbone of our work is live looks, and those just aren’t in the offing for Robert right now

[harfman77]

11. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

 

Why He’ll Succeed: He’s 19 and mashing in Double-A, after mashing in Advanced-A, after mashing in A. The tools back up the performance and he’s closer to the majors than you think. He might end up sacrificing some hit for pop, but he potentially pairs that with a centerfield profile. And it’s significant pop.

 

Why He Might Fail: In five years he has a chance to be 24, and the swing-and-miss might eat up his offensive value while the body forces him to right field.

 

I would say the chances are extremely high.

[Buehrlesque]

11. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

 

Why He’ll Succeed: He’s 19 and mashing in Double-A, after mashing in Advanced-A, after mashing in A. The tools back up the performance and he’s closer to the majors than you think. He might end up sacrificing some hit for pop, but he potentially pairs that with a centerfield profile. And it’s significant pop.

 

Why He Might Fail: In five years he has a chance to be 24, and the swing-and-miss might eat up his offensive value while the body forces him to right field.

 

I would say the chances are extremely high.

Haha. I've seen mixed reviews on that. Some scouts think age 24 is his ceiling in five years. I think, with the right coaching staff, he has a pretty good shot at getting there.

[steveno89]

Juan Soto at 12 is interesting.

 

Soto at 12 seems too high for me right now. The talent is there, and he's still very young, but I feel he needs to prove a ton more before I'd place him in the top 15. Him not profiling to play center field also puts alot more pressure on his bat to play. I like Soto alot as a prospect still.

 

Nice to see Hansen get some love, surprised he's in the top 50 though.

 

Dunning should be getting some top 100 love I would imagine with a 1.94 ERA across two levels and solid peripheral numbers.

 

Robert should firmly be in the top 20-40 range, and could be even higher a year from now.

[GreenSox]

Tatis #22

[Quin]

Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal.

[beautox]

Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal.

Yeah a future of Soto & Robert is something special to dream on.

 

I like the fact the sox have essentially 5 in the top 50 on par with the braves.

[Quin]

Tatis #22

[southsider2k5]

Very nice to see Hansen spiking into the top 50.

[maxjusttyped]

I'm old enough to remember when people thought Tatis Jr was only being hyped by Keith Law because he hates the White Sox.

[southsider2k5]

I'm old enough to remember when people thought Tatis Jr was only being hyped by Keith Law because he hates the White Sox.

 

I'm old enough to remember when people thought Tatis Jr was only being signed because of his name.

[steveno89]

Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal.

 

We all would love a Robertson for Soto deal, and the Nationals inability to acquire Robertson or Holland is going to end up costing them at the deadline.

 

If they are moving Soto they likely would prefer Hand to Robertson, but it's rumored the Padres want a huge return for him.

[steveno89]

Really hoping Soto headlines a Robertson deal.

 

We all would love a Robertson for Soto deal, and the Nationals inability to acquire Robertson or Holland is going to end up costing them at the deadline.

 

If they are moving Soto they likely would prefer Hand to Robertson, but it's rumored the Padres want a huge return for him.

[caulfield12]

Lopez and Collins missing...presumably Top 51-100.

 

Fulmer out of the Top 100. Dunning added (presumably).

 

Not sure what to make of Burdi exactly, but relievers usually aren't ranked anyway.

[ChiSox59]

Glad to see Hansen in the top 50. I thought we may start seeing that.

[Dam8610]

Hansen Top 50! Glad to see him getting some recognition. Is Dunning anywhere to be found?

[Dam8610]

Tatis #22

 

The White Sox have trouble developing that type of player, anyway.

[Chicago White Sox]

Pitching obviously looks good with three top 50 guys, a guy who probably just missed in Lopez, & another guy who should be in the 75 to 100 range bare minimum. And that doesn't include a bunch of other guys in the 100 to 200 range in Fulmer, Burdi, Adams, Guerrero, Stephens, & Flores.

 

Moncada is obviously awesome, but we desperately need to add more on the positional side. Robert should be a top 50 prospect too, but after that it's really only Collins who is likely to crack 100 lists. Would have been nice if someone had a breakout performance and snagged a spot on these lists. My guess is Adolfo doesn't make the cut despite what should be considered a promising season.

[southsider2k5]

Pitching obviously looks good with three top 50 guys, a guy who probably just missed in Lopez, & another guy who should be in the 75 to 100 range bare minimum. And that doesn't include a bunch of other guys in the 100 to 200 range in Fulmer, Burdi, Adams, Guerrero, Stephens, & Flores.

 

Moncada is obviously awesome, but we desperately need to add more on the positional side. Robert should be a top 50 prospect too, but after that it's really only Collins who is likely to crack 100 lists. Would have been nice if someone had a breakout performance and snagged a spot on these lists. My guess is Adolfo doesn't make the cut despite what should be considered a promising season.

 

While I don't think that Micker belongs on any top 100 list yet, I am very curious what the prognosticators are seeing this year in regards to the progress he has made this season so far. The power has definitely come around, the K numbers are down, and he seems to be making better contact. While he still has plenty of room to work, I am thrilled with the progress and his health so far this year.

[Chicago White Sox]

While I don't think that Micker belongs on any top 100 list yet, I am very curious what the prognosticators are seeing this year in regards to the progress he has made this season so far. The power has definitely come around, the K numbers are down, and he seems to be making better contact. While he still has plenty of room to work, I am thrilled with the progress and his health so far this year.

Yeah, I'm thrilled with the progress as well, but he still has work to do in the plate discipline department before he enters top 100 territory. But even with moderate gains in that area, he'll be on these lists in no time. And quite frankly, given his overall rawness, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive leap at some point.

[Bob Sacamano]

Lopez and Collins missing...presumably Top 51-100.

 

Fulmer out of the Top 100. Dunning added (presumably).

 

Not sure what to make of Burdi exactly, but relievers usually aren't ranked anyway.

 

Really sucks that this was a "if we are competing in August/September this season, we want him in our pen" type of pick. If they had committed to rebuilding at the time of the draft, I'm sure someone else would have been picked.

Edited July 6, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, I'm thrilled with the progress as well, but he still has work to do in the plate discipline department before he enters top 100 territory. But even with moderate gains in that area, he'll be on these lists in no time. And quite frankly, given his overall rawness, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive leap at some point.

 

The leap he made this year with just being healthy is impressive. Sounds like he is more confident, and the game is coming to him a bit. As young as he is, I think a big leap is a realistic hope.