BP mid-season top 50

[Chicago White Sox]

Really sucks that this was a "if we are competing in August/September this season, we want him in our pen" type of pick. If they had committed to rebuilding at the time of the draft, I'm sure someone else would have been picked.

If he becomes an elite reliever, he'll likely be worth much more in trade than whomever we wouldn't have drafted instead. I'm still more than ok with the pick.

[steveno89]

Hansen Top 50! Glad to see him getting some recognition. Is Dunning anywhere to be found?

 

Dunning does not have quite the same level of pure upside as Hansen does, but he is a quality prospect in his own right. I think he has the upside of a #3 starter, but could end up as an innings eating #4 or 5 starter.

[southsider2k5]

If he becomes an elite reliever, he'll likely be worth much more in trade than whomever we wouldn't have drafted instead. I'm still more than ok with the pick.

 

Burdi is so far ahead of where he should be in the minors right now, it isn't even funny. The Sox need to just leave him alone in AAA, and even if it takes a couple of years for him to catch up, so be it.

 

It is also worth pointing out that with the increase in the value of a reliever, the old thinking about drafting relievers probably needs to start to change. They have WAY more value than they did 10, heck even 5 years ago.

[steveno89]

If he becomes an elite reliever, he'll likely be worth much more in trade than whomever we wouldn't have drafted instead. I'm still more than ok with the pick.

 

Nothing against Burdi, but I would not have selected any reliever in the first round. Dunning, for example, was selected shortly after Burdi and is turning out to be a considerably better prospect because of the possibility that he sticks as a starting pitcher.

 

Again it is too early to say for sure, I just feel position players and/or potential starting pitchers are better first round gambles

[steveno89]

Burdi is so far ahead of where he should be in the minors right now, it isn't even funny. The Sox need to just leave him alone in AAA, and even if it takes a couple of years for him to catch up, so be it.

 

It is also worth pointing out that with the increase in the value of a reliever, the old thinking about drafting relievers probably needs to start to change. They have WAY more value than they did 10, heck even 5 years ago.

 

The value of quality relievers is certainly valid, but if he doesn't cut it in relief he cannot be even attempted as a starting pitcher.

 

A starting pitcher who doesn't pan out can still be tried as a reliever.

[GreenSox]

The best relievers - the tippy top -are, what 3 WAR players?

Ceiling 3 WAR is not a judicious use of a first round pick.

Burdi was the reputed "fastest to the majors" guy in the draft. And the Sox needed bullpen help and were taking their last "we're still in it" gasps at the time.

 

They wouldn't have drafted him in a rebuild. But he looks like a good pitcher, so it's fine.

Edited July 6, 2017 by GreenSox

[Feeky Magee]

Yeah, given the current trade value of elite relievers, I'm not sure I'd be crying about a guy striking out over 14 per 9 aged 22 at AAA. Obviously you can pick a few taken after him that you'd rather have, but he's probably in the top 26 most valuable players from that draft right now.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The best relievers - the tippy top -are, what 3 WAR players?

Ceiling 3 WAR is not a judicious use of a first round pick.

Burdi was the reputed "fastest to the majors" guy in the draft. And the Sox needed bullpen help and were taking their last "we're still in it" gasps at the time.

 

They wouldn't have drafted him in a rebuild. But he looks like a good pitcher, so it's fine.

 

While reliever prospects don't generate huge value in WAR, they also are more likely to reach their ceiling than other prospects, and have a higher floor as well. Burdi has had a rough couple of weeks after a strong start, and has settled down nicely the past few outings since the rough patch. At present, he's still a usable bullpen arm if promoted today, and could soon enough develop into an elite reliever with a bit more seasoning. Obviously you'd pick a quality positional prospect if one was available, but instead you got prospect who is much more likely to reach their ceiling than your true first round pick Zach Collins. I am not complaining about that at all.

[fathom]

Kieboom was in the 50-65 range according to bp chat

[Chicago White Sox]

Burdi is so far ahead of where he should be in the minors right now, it isn't even funny. The Sox need to just leave him alone in AAA, and even if it takes a couple of years for him to catch up, so be it.

 

It is also worth pointing out that with the increase in the value of a reliever, the old thinking about drafting relievers probably needs to start to change. They have WAY more value than they did 10, heck even 5 years ago.

To me it's a market inefficiency. Teams are paying ridiculous prices for elite high leverage relievers, yet a guy like Burdi who has that kind of upside and is nearly major league ready is considered a reach at the end of the 1st round by many and is regularly excluded from top 100 lists. We're talking about a guy who if all goes well could conceivably land an Andrew Miller type return in just a few years, while other potential guys at that spot could very still be in the minors. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't waste an early pick on just any reliever, but I think a guy like Burdi is well worth it.

[southsider2k5]

To me it's a market inefficiency. Teams are paying ridiculous prices for elite high leverage relievers, yet a guy like Burdi who has that kind of upside and is nearly major league ready is considered a reach at the end of the 1st round by many and is regularly excluded from top 100 lists. We're talking about a guy who if all goes well could conceivably land an Andrew Miller type return in just a few years, while other potential guys at that spot could very still be in the minors. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't waste an early pick on just any reliever, but I think a guy like Burdi is well worth it.

 

A guy like Burdi is absolutely a moneyball play.

[Chicago White Sox]

Kieboom was in the 50-65 range according to bp chat

Seems like a much more realistic headliner for Robertson than Soto.

[GreenSox]

We're talking about a guy who if all goes well could conceivably land an Andrew Miller type return in just a few years, while other potential guys at that spot could very still be in the minors. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't waste an early pick on just any reliever, but I think a guy like Burdi is well worth it.

Of course that's only if he turns out to be the absolute elite. What if he turns out to be a really good reliever- say David Robertson. I guess we'll found out soon enough what the flip value is.

A really good position player or starter is simply worth more. And, obviously an elite starter or position player is worth a lot more than an elite reliever.

[southsider2k5]

Of course that's only if he turns out to be the absolute elite. What if he turns out to be a really good reliever- say David Robertson. I guess we'll found out soon enough what the flip value is.

A really good position player or starter is simply worth more. And, obviously an elite starter or position player is worth a lot more than an elite reliever.

 

David Robertson is a $48 million player. If you can get a guy at $500,000 to do the same thing, that is a huge win.

[GGajewski18]

Seems like a much more realistic headliner for Robertson than Soto.

 

Agreed, and one I would gladly add to the Sox farm system.

[Buehrlesque]

Kieboom was in the 50-65 range according to bp chat

Anybody know the reports on this guy? I know he's hitting well in A ball right now, but how's his glove? Will he stick at SS? Would he be an above-average 3B?

[thxfrthmmrs]

The White Sox have trouble developing that type of player, anyway.

 

Why?

[bmags]

Anybody know the reports on this guy? I know he's hitting well in A ball right now, but how's his glove? Will he stick at SS? Would he be an above-average 3B?

 

This was Longenhagen's profile before his bat exploded this year. Sees 3rd.:

"Scouting Report

Though he was drafted as a shortstop and took 100% of his reps in the GCL at shortstop after signing, I have Kieboom projected to third base. He was a fringe runner as an amateur and was posting below-average times from home to first during instructional league, where he was also taking reps at third. I just don’t expect the range necessary for shortstop to be there at maturity, though he has left-side arm strength and should be fine at the hot corner.

 

Offensively, Kieboom’s value is largely tied to his bat-to-ball skills. He has smooth, comfortable stroke, average bat speed and tracks pitches well. He projects for average raw power at maturity. I think the approach to hitting, which is more geared for gap-to-gap contact, will limit the game-power output. It’s not an awe-inspiring offensive profile at third base, but an above-average hitter with fringe-average game power and solid defense there is still an above-average everyday player. I think that’s Kieboom’s ceiling."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-pros...gton-nationals/

[steveno89]

This was Longenhagen's profile before his bat exploded this year. Sees 3rd.:

"Scouting Report

Though he was drafted as a shortstop and took 100% of his reps in the GCL at shortstop after signing, I have Kieboom projected to third base. He was a fringe runner as an amateur and was posting below-average times from home to first during instructional league, where he was also taking reps at third. I just don’t expect the range necessary for shortstop to be there at maturity, though he has left-side arm strength and should be fine at the hot corner.

 

Offensively, Kieboom’s value is largely tied to his bat-to-ball skills. He has smooth, comfortable stroke, average bat speed and tracks pitches well. He projects for average raw power at maturity. I think the approach to hitting, which is more geared for gap-to-gap contact, will limit the game-power output. It’s not an awe-inspiring offensive profile at third base, but an above-average hitter with fringe-average game power and solid defense there is still an above-average everyday player. I think that’s Kieboom’s ceiling."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-pros...gton-nationals/

 

Makes sense to me. Kieboom profiles as a solid mlb player, but does not seem to have star potential. That is totally fine with me. Soto or Kieboom would be very welcome additions to our farm.