Quintana should be kept

[zisk]

After Moncada graduates, the Sox farm system is pretty middling. The pitching side is ok, but the positional talent is thin. They definitely need to make more trades so they have multiple legit prospects at each position, and Q is the best piece they have to get high upside talent. He must be traded.

Most outlets have Sox farm rated 3-4. Pitching side is best in baseball by far. We do need more position prospects

 

The best way to do it is with Q, but with Rodon just back from injury it might make sense to keep Q until July 31. This

 

will give the Sox time to make sure Rodon is good for the long haul. The toughest thing is that Abreu is going so well

 

and would bring back a nice haul but with so many young Cubans in the system the Sox seem reluctant to trade him.

 

By 2020 JA will be headed toward the twilight right when we could use his big bat.

Edited July 10, 2017 by zisk

[Soha]

I would have never traded Sale and think the return they got for him was abysmal so I expect a trade of Quintana and the return to be abysmal as well. I realize Moncada was/is a top 5 prospect but if the best pitcher in the AL, with a team friendly contract, can't get you an already established MLB outfielder like a Betts or Bradley, or even a Bennitendi then you failed in the trade and I expect the haul for Quintana to be disappointing as well.

 

They got 2 prospects with superstar potential back for Chris Sale. I think that's about all you're going to get for anyone you trade. But yeah, the big risk is on the Sox side. If either of these prospects don't continue to develop as they have so far, the trade turns in to a big loss. That's what happens when you trade a star.

 

And if Quintana does get moved - it will be for significantly less than Chris Sale brought back. Because he's just not as good as Chris Sale is. I think we'd be lucky to get one piece that is in the Kopech/Moncada range, plus a few lottery tickets after that.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Soha

[Chicago White Sox]

I would have never traded Sale and think the return they got for him was abysmal so I expect a trade of Quintana and the return to be abysmal as well. I realize Moncada was/is a top 5 prospect but if the best pitcher in baseball, with a team friendly contract, can't get you an already established MLB outfielder like a Betts or Bradley, or even a Bennitendi then you failed in the trade and I expect the haul for Quintana to be disappointing as well.

Why would a team acquiring Sale want to trade a proven OF like Bette or Bradley? That completely defeats the purpose of acquiring Chris in the first place. And honestly, Betts is probably considered a more valuable trade piece by most baseball enthusiasts in the first place. Furthermore, why would we want to trade Sale for a guy with only 4 years of control when we were just starting our rebuild? How does that lead to sustainable success? You can feel the package is light, but we got back arguably the highest upside positional & pitching prospects in the minors. We have control over them for 6+ years when they finally reach the majors, which obviously better aligns with our projected competitive window. I think your expectations were simply unrealistic from the get go and that you weren't approaching this trade from a rebuilding perspective.

[Chicago White Sox]

They got 2 prospects with superstar potential back for Chris Sale. I think that's about all you're going to get for anyone you trade. But yeah, the big risk is on the Sox side. If either of these prospects don't continue to develop as they have so far, the trade turns in to a big loss. That's what happens when you trade a star.

 

And if Quintana does get moved - it will be for significantly less than Chris Sale brought back. Because he's just not as good as Chris Sale is. I think we'd be lucky to get one piece that is in the Kopech/Moncada range, plus a few lottery tickets after that.

For the Sox to breakeven on the Chris Sale trade, only one of Moncada or Kopech has to turn into a star. If both reach their ceilings, you're talking about one of the biggest returns in baseball history. Anything in between is a win for us.

 

As for Quintana, I think you're selling him short. No one is giving up a Moncada piece because he was basically in a class of his own. But a headliner in the 10 to 20 range is certainly possible along with a secondary piece in the 40 to 60 range and a lesser piece or two. Quintana is not as good as Sale and should not be worth as much, but this deadline is setting up nicely for a team to pay fair value for him. I fully expect a trade a little bit better than the Eaton trade, but with a positional guy as the primary headliner.

[SCCWS]

Why would a team acquiring Sale want to trade a proven OF like Bette or Bradley? That completely defeats the purpose of acquiring Chris in the first place. And honestly, Betts is probably considered a more valuable trade piece by most baseball enthusiasts in the first place. Furthermore, why would we want to trade Sale for a guy with only 4 years of control when we were just starting our rebuild? How does that lead to sustainable success? You can feel the package is light, but we got back arguably the highest upside positional & pitching prospects in the minors. We have control over them for 6+ years when they finally reach the majors, which obviously better aligns with our projected competitive window. I think your expectations were simply unrealistic from the get go and that you weren't approaching this trade from a rebuilding perspective.

 

But I understand the poster's issue. Unfortunately the white Sox farm and ML roster was so thin position wise, they had to trade Sale for prospects as you mention. But if they had some solid young talent in AA or AAA, then they could have looked for ML ready talent to supplement it w a Sale trade. I agree that Betts may have been a stretch. I also think Moncada, Bradley and Benintendi all had pros and cons at the time of the trade. Hahn went with what he thought was the best if indeed all 3 were in the mix. Bradley is having a very good year and Benintendi is having a very good rookie season. Moncada may have the higher ceiilng but he is still developing at AAA while working on his "cons". Time will tell

l

[Chicago White Sox]

But I understand the poster's issue. Unfortunately the white Sox farm and ML roster was so thin position wise, they had to trade Sale for prospects as you mention. But if they had some solid young talent in AA or AAA, then they could have looked for ML ready talent to supplement it w a Sale trade. I agree that Betts may have been a stretch. I also think Moncada, Bradley and Benintendi all had pros and cons at the time of the trade. Hahn went with what he thought was the best if indeed all 3 were in the mix. Bradley is having a very good year and Benintendi is having a very good rookie season. Moncada may have the higher ceiilng but he is still developing at AAA while working on his "cons". Time will tell

l

Why are we doing a hypothetical though? We were rebuilding and that's how the trade should be evaluated. And Bradley & Benintendi were likely off the table because they fit specific holes on a club trying to compete. With Devers as the eventual successor at 3B and other options already in place, Moncada was the most expendable of the three. He also has by far the biggest ceiling and for a team starting a rebuild that can give multiple years of development time at the major league level, Yoan made the most sense for us as well. I can understand preferring Benintendi if you want a safer player, but I can not understand the Bradley infatuation given his 4 years of control.

[Soha]

For the Sox to breakeven on the Chris Sale trade, only one of Moncada or Kopech has to turn into a star. If both reach their ceilings, you're talking about one of the biggest returns in baseball history. Anything in between is a win for us.

 

As for Quintana, I think you're selling him short. No one is giving up a Moncada piece because he was basically in a class of his own. But a headliner in the 10 to 20 range is certainly possible along with a secondary piece in the 40 to 60 range and a lesser piece or two. Quintana is not as good as Sale and should not be worth as much, but this deadline is setting up nicely for a team to pay fair value for him. I fully expect a trade a little bit better than the Eaton trade, but with a positional guy as the primary headliner.

 

I didn't mean to sell him short. I just think the return on the Sale trade was a monster. You're right, if Kopech turns in to a #1 starter and Moncada becomes a star - the Sox win this trade. At least from their end. Hopefully both teams win this trade for their own needs.

 

And for Quintana - this is the reason I've been hoping the Cubs and Sox can come to terms on a deal. Because Jimenez is the #5 prospect in baseball and I don't see us getting that good of a prospect back otherwise. I care more about getting the White Sox the best deal possible, than sticking it to the Cubs. I hope JR and Sox management feel the same way. And if you do get Eloy in a deal, whatever you can grab on top of him would be like gravy to the deal.

[Eminor3rd]

I think most people drastically underestimate the amount of talent required to build a healthy, sustainably competitive system from top to bottom. The bust rate on prospects is very high. We do not have enough talent in our system to abandon opportunities to acquire the types of prospects that Quintana can bring. Don't forget that Quintana is, in all likelihood, this regime's last chance to acquire a "big" prospect from another system. There will be other trades to make, but none that can command a top-25 talent or two. After this deal, all of our studs are going to have to be drafted and developed from within.

 

If you disagree with me, it means you think the pieces of our next competitor are mostly already here. If your best guess at our next contender depends on more than half of our prospects turning into productive big leaguers, you're way off. It's always "possible" for a miracle sot occur, but you don't go down this far down this road the bail early and launch a Hail Mary.

[Eminor3rd]

I would have never traded Sale and think the return they got for him was abysmal so I expect a trade of Quintana and the return to be abysmal as well. I realize Moncada was/is a top 5 prospect but if the best pitcher in the AL, with a team friendly contract, can't get you an already established MLB outfielder like a Betts or Bradley, or even a Bennitendi then you failed in the trade and I expect the haul for Quintana to be disappointing as well.

 

It's fine that you THINK that Sale should have returned that, but organized baseball simply doesn't agree. Hahn shopped the hell out of Sale for months and took the highest bid he received. That is, literally by definition, Sale's highest value. We all wish that our team could receive more value than it gives every time it makes a deal, but that's an erroneously simplistic way to evaluate a trade. The fact is that the White Sox had a valuable but expiring asset that could not be used to win a championship during it's period of usefulness. The Sox needed to trade their present-day assets for as much FUTURE value as possible, so as to preserve the value of the present asset instead of just letting it rot away.

 

You can't trade a $20 bill for a $100 bill. But you CAN invest a $20 bill and end up with something more in the future.

 

You can't cryogenically freeze Chris Sale and wake him up when the team is good. But you CAN trade him for an asset that is still developing and will be relevant when the team is good.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think most people drastically underestimate the amount of talent required to build a healthy, sustainably competitive system from top to bottom. The bust rate on prospects is very high. We do not have enough talent in our system to abandon opportunities to acquire the types of prospects that Quintana can bring. Don't forget that Quintana is, in all likelihood, this regime's last chance to acquire a "big" prospect from another system. There will be other trades to make, but none that can command a top-25 talent or two. After this deal, all of our studs are going to have to be drafted and developed from within.

 

If you disagree with me, it means you think the pieces of our next competitor are mostly already here. If your best guess at our next contender depends on more than half of our prospects turning into productive big leaguers, you're way off. It's always "possible" for a miracle sot occur, but you don't go down this far down this road the bail early and launch a Hail Mary.

This is a great post. Look at our system and see where we have star potential on the positional side. Moncada is the only guy with a high likelihood of becoming a star. Robert & Adolfo have the tools, but one guy has zero at-bats in the states and the other is K'ing at a 30% clip in low A. Collins & Burger both have All Star ceilings, but come with huge question marks. I'm not sure anyone else has star upside, at least not in full season ball.

 

Point is we desperately need to add to our positional core. I actually feel pretty good about our pitching depth. I'd argue it's in the top 2 in baseball along with the Braves. But once Moncada gets called up and loses eligibility, our positional group is going to be pretty ugly for a rebuilding club. If we can add two more top 100 positional talents at the deadline by trading Q & Robertson, we're suddenly getting to a more respectable spot. But this is a process and we'll continue to need address this though in the coming years. The good news is that the 2018 draft is shaping up nicely for us to add another elite positional talent to the mix.

[GreenSox]

It's fine that you THINK that Sale should have returned that, but organized baseball simply doesn't agree. Hahn shopped the hell out of Sale for months and took the highest bid he received.

The same will hold true for Q. Presumably Hahn got offers in December (we don't exactly know what they were) which established the market, but he passed. Now the market is different in July, so we'll see. I'm just not convinced that Q, for who much of the value is contract and control, gets substantially higher offers in July than December....whether enough to offset the 60% of 1 season less value the receiving party gets for him. And then the question becomes, do they move him for best offer, even if they don't like it, or hold again for better offer (which certainly one would think would be a good bit less than last December). We'll find out.

I'm okay with moving Q to the Cubs - with Jiminez as the centerpiece. None of this Schwarber stuff - DH is the last position to fill in a rebuild. I doubt the Cubs want to send their last elite prospect across town anymore than the Sox want to send Q to the northside.

Edited July 10, 2017 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

Holding Q would only make sense if Rodon's a 4-6 war pitcher going forward (2018-20/21).

 

Who wants to take that bet?

 

Nobody really has a clue right now what to expect out of him and Anderson...or Avi, for that matter, the next two years.

Edited July 10, 2017 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

The same will hold true for Q. Presumably Hahn got offers in December (we don't exactly know what they were) which established the market, but he passed. Now the market is different in July, so we'll see. I'm just not convinced that Q, for who much of the value is contract and control, gets substantially higher offers in July than December....whether enough to offset the 60% of 1 season less value the receiving party gets for him. And then the question becomes, do they move him for best offer, even if they don't like it, or hold again for better offer (which certainly one would think would be a good bit less than last December). We'll find out.

I'm okay with moving Q to the Cubs - with Jiminez as the centerpiece. None of this Schwarber stuff - DH is the last position to fill in a rebuild. I doubt the Cubs want to send their last elite prospect across town anymore than the Sox want to send Q to the northside.

 

Yeah, unless an injury makes someone desperate next week, it's hard to imagine the market ever improving. At some point you have to accept that the market has spoken about a guy's value.

[ChiSox59]

I think you gotta trade him. But only if you get something worth trading him for.

 

If something like Ortiz, Diaz and Phillips from the Brewers if the best offer you can get, and I'd just say screw it and keep him until someone bowls you over.

[GreenSox]

Point is we desperately need to add to our positional core. I actually feel pretty good about our pitching depth. I'd argue it's in the top 2 in baseball along with the Braves.

The pitching may be top 2 in baseball, but if you use a 2 prospects for 1 major leaguer equation, it's still light. They'll need 5 major leaguers (4 with Rodon plus at least 1 extra for debt).

As for positional players, I certainly agree that the Sox are lite...But in contrast to pitching, they have some young positional players on the Major league roster who might be keepers. Yolmer and Leury performed like major league starters....now they would be the weakest starters on a championship team, they may be bench players ultimately, but they were capable.

And there are others who have shown some glimpses. In pitching, nothing beyond Kahnle.

[southsider2k5]

It's fine that you THINK that Sale should have returned that, but organized baseball simply doesn't agree. Hahn shopped the hell out of Sale for months and took the highest bid he received. That is, literally by definition, Sale's highest value. We all wish that our team could receive more value than it gives every time it makes a deal, but that's an erroneously simplistic way to evaluate a trade. The fact is that the White Sox had a valuable but expiring asset that could not be used to win a championship during it's period of usefulness. The Sox needed to trade their present-day assets for as much FUTURE value as possible, so as to preserve the value of the present asset instead of just letting it rot away.

 

You can't trade a $20 bill for a $100 bill. But you CAN invest a $20 bill and end up with something more in the future.

 

You can't cryogenically freeze Chris Sale and wake him up when the team is good. But you CAN trade him for an asset that is still developing and will be relevant when the team is good.

 

The problem is everyone seems to be offering us $50 for our $100 bill in Q.

[Eminor3rd]

The problem is everyone seems to be offering us $50 for our $100 bill in Q.

 

If that happens long and consistently enough, at some point we have to accept that either (1) Quintana isn't valued as highly as we think he should be, or (2) the assets we want back are valued more highly than we think they should be. In both cases, we must adjust to the new reality, because neither condition changes our contention window. All the necessary market forces for optimized demand are in play and have been since the Winter Meetings.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

If that happens long and consistently enough, at some point we have to accept that either (1) Quintana isn't valued as highly as we think he should be, or (2) the assets we want back are valued more highly than we think they should be. In both cases, we must adjust to the new reality, because neither condition changes our contention window. All the necessary market forces for optimized demand are in play and have been since the Winter Meetings.

 

Adjust to new reality? Yeah, that doesn't sound like our fan base at all. Tatis Jr much?

[Chicago White Sox]

If that happens long and consistently enough, at some point we have to accept that either (1) Quintana isn't valued as highly as we think he should be, or (2) the assets we want back are valued more highly than we think they should be. In both cases, we must adjust to the new reality, because neither condition changes our contention window. All the necessary market forces for optimized demand are in play and have been since the Winter Meetings.

100% this. I was trying to say this all winter, but you summarized perfectly.

[Chicago White Sox]

Adjust to new reality? Yeah, that doesn't sound like our fan base at all. Tatis Jr much?

He's talking about our front office. If there is still a huge valuation gap between them and all other GMs on Quintana, then it's probably time for the Sox to rethink their demands. At some point Quintana's diminishing control will cause his value to drop as well, so we can't wait forever until someone pays our price. The clock is ticking and I think they'd be crazy to wait any longer to deal him, especially given the current market conditions for quality starting pitching.

[southsider2k5]

If that happens long and consistently enough, at some point we have to accept that either (1) Quintana isn't valued as highly as we think he should be, or (2) the assets we want back are valued more highly than we think they should be. In both cases, we must adjust to the new reality, because neither condition changes our contention window. All the necessary market forces for optimized demand are in play and have been since the Winter Meetings.

 

If the return isn't that great, the equation changes. There is actually value to things like not destroying our young bullpen arms by having a somewhat stable starting staff, learning how to be a professional from guys who are the best in baseball at going about their business, etc. If the return for Q isn't going to be great, the scales rebalance towards those kind of things.

[OmarComing25]

Yeah unless Quintana goes on an Arrieta 2015-like run to close out the season I don't see a scenario where his trade value is higher this offseason than it is right now. Trade him for the best offer, whatever that may be.

[Eminor3rd]

If the return isn't that great, the equation changes. There is actually value to things like not destroying our young bullpen arms by having a somewhat stable starting staff, learning how to be a professional from guys who are the best in baseball at going about their business, etc. If the return for Q isn't going to be great, the scales rebalance towards those kind of things.

 

You're right, they do -- but they would have to shift REALLY far to justify keeping him around simply to eat innings.

[GreenSox]

He's talking about our front office. If there is still a huge valuation gap between them and all other GMs on Quintana, then it's probably time for the Sox to rethink their demands. At some point Quintana's diminishing control will cause his value to drop as well, so we can't wait forever until someone pays our price. The clock is ticking and I think they'd be crazy to wait any longer to deal him, especially given the current market conditions for quality starting pitching.

Precisely.

And let's face it, it's not that surprising that the Sox face some dissonance. They've generally favored vets over prospects; most of the teams that would need Q have built from within and without the need for heavy trades (the Astros have done both because their farm is so good - we'll see).

Edited July 10, 2017 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

We're going to have to reassess how much war numbers really matter to opposing GM's if we don't get quasi ace value for Q.

 

Even in a down year, he's STILL around 20th in fWAR, making him a TOR starter for all but about 15-18 teams.

 

Bwar is only 1, so huge spread there...whereas he and Vargas are even at fangraphs, bwar has Vargas as 4 and second in AL to Sale, while fWAR they're both exactly 2's.

 

Huge disparity/discrepancy.

Edited July 10, 2017 by caulfield12