Fangraphs trade value series (Q #42, Moncada #41)

[maxjusttyped]

Quintana write up:

 

Here’s the player on this list most likely to be moved in the next few weeks, which should give us a chance to look back and see how well we estimated his market value. Early-season struggles aside, Quintana remains a very good pitcher — and, importantly, one of the most durable pitchers in the game — as he heads towards a fifth consecutive year of 200 innings pitched. While this group of 10 was full of pitchers who throw harder and miss more bats than Quintana does, he’s a relatively safe selection in a land of high-risk options.

 

With three years remaining on his contract, the latter two of which are team options, it’s obvious why the White Sox are hanging a high price tag on their best remaining big leaguer. There aren’t many guys out there who offer this level of quality with minimal financial risk. Rick Hahn clearly believes a team will eventually come around to the idea that Quintana is a scarce commodity, a frontline controllable starter, and he’ll be compensated accordingly. Whether a team will pay an ace price for a guy who doesn’t have prototypical ace stuff remains to be seen.

 

Moncada write up:

 

It’s fun to write up guys who have actually gotten moved lately. Since most of these guys don’t get traded, this exercise involves a lot of speculation, but in this case, we actually do know Yoan Moncada‘s trade value in relation to Chris Sale, and can infer from that what it says about Moncada’s value relative to other kinds of players.

 

Certainly, there are few players with a more tantalizing ceiling, which is why the White Sox were willing to surrender one of the game’s best pitchers primarily to land him in their deal with the Red Sox. Eric Longenhagen put him in a tier by himself when ranking the game’s best prospects this spring, and this year, Moncada has more than held his own in Triple-A as a 22-year-old. So, why the 15-spot drop?

 

Well, for one, the Sale trade happened, and suggested that last year’s ranking was probably too aggressive. For all the upside, Moncada’s probably not ready to help a big-league team win right now, and the risks associated with his high strikeout rate and questionable defense mean that he might not ever turn into what he’s been projected to become. He certainly could become a star, but there’s risk here, and not a lot of present value, so the Red Sox were willing to move him for a significant short-term upgrade.

 

While Moncada is clearly a very valuable piece of the White Sox system, I over-ranked a number of minor leaguers last year, and this is probably a better reflection of the trade value of a very good prospect with legitimate risks who isn’t yet big-league ready.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-41-to-50/

Edited July 10, 2017 by maxjusttyped

[bmags]

I don't know, I think I'd read opposite. You now know that Moncada's trade value is very high because he was used for one of the top 2 pitchers in baseball this year on an affordable contract.

 

He seems to be implying that real proof for high rankings is the absence of getting traded, not getting traded for a huge haul.

[Jake]

I don't know, I think I'd read opposite. You now know that Moncada's trade value is very high because he was used for one of the top 2 pitchers in baseball this year on an affordable contract.

 

He seems to be implying that real proof for high rankings is the absence of getting traded, not getting traded for a huge haul.

 

I think the idea is if Sale was #10 or whatever he was and Moncada was somewhere near there too, then Sox shouldn't have gotten another very valuable prospect back in Kopech and a not-insignificant third piece and another lottery ticket in the same deal. The other alternative would be to crank up Sale's trade value ranking but that probably didn't seem justified though I don't remember where he was.

[OmarComing25]

I think the idea is if Sale was #10 or whatever he was and Moncada was somewhere near there too, then Sox shouldn't have gotten another very valuable prospect back in Kopech and a not-insignificant third piece and another lottery ticket in the same deal. The other alternative would be to crank up Sale's trade value ranking but that probably didn't seem justified though I don't remember where he was.

I get that line of thinking but Cameron himself at this time last year wrote an article saying that a Moncada/Kopech+ deal for Sale made sense for both sides. He essentially predicted the exact deal around the time he ranked Moncada that high in the 2016 trade value rankings, so it's kind of odd that when that deal happened it made him think that Moncada actually had less value than he originally thought.

[chitownsportsfan]

I used to really enjoy these from FG but it's become obvious that teams don't really value these guys the same way FG (or at least Cameron) do. And even then, it's so fluid that trying to do a "yearly" list doesn't really work. What was Aaron Judge's trade value in April? What will it be when he comes back to earth next summer? Just an example.

[OmarComing25]

I used to really enjoy these from FG but it's become obvious that teams don't really value these guys the same way FG (or at least Cameron) do. And even then, it's so fluid that trying to do a "yearly" list doesn't really work. What was Aaron Judge's trade value in April? What will it be when he comes back to earth next summer? Just an example.

If trade value wasn't fluid, then there'd be no point to doing yearly lists because you could just make one and call it a day. The fluidity makes the exercise more fun.

[chitownsportsfan]

If trade value wasn't fluid, then there'd be no point to doing yearly lists because you could just make one and call it a day. The fluidity makes the exercise more fun.

 

It's fun but meaningless. Maybe I'm just getting cynical and old.

[OmarComing25]

It's fun but meaningless.

Doesn't that describe all of sports in general?

[Chicago White Sox]

I thought it was interesting that Dombrowski mentioned that when they were evaluating the trade, their internal projections had the Moncada + Kopech for Sale part of the trade being a small loss for them from an overall value standpoint. Will be fascinating to see this one play out as the range of outcomes could be insane. Right now, both sides have to be very happy, but I am interested in seeing if Cooper having Sale pitch to contact last year greatly reduced his chance of injury.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-41-to-50/

For all the upside, Moncada’s probably not ready to help a big-league team win right now, and the risks associated with his high strikeout rate and questionable defense mean that he might not ever turn into what he’s been projected to become. He certainly could become a star, but there’s risk here, and not a lot of present value, so the Red Sox were willing to move him for a significant short-term upgrade.

Great.

[bmags]

Great.

 

All players have weaknesses. I don't know what to tell you if you think Moncada didn't have any risk.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

All players have weaknesses. I don't know what to tell you if you think Moncada didn't have any risk.

Of course all players have weaknesses. I knew Moncada, like all prospects, was a risk. I don't believe any prospect is a sure thing, including Moncada. Prospects are suspects until they prove themselves over time at the big league level.

 

Two weaknesses that have plagued the Sox for a long time now are poor defense and problems making contact. It's too bad these happen to be the weaknesses of the latest top Sox prospect.

 

That's why Yolmer Sanchez is a breath of fresh air because he can actually play plus defense at 2B and it looks like he can at least hold his own against major league pitching. I'm just not as anxious as some to anoint Moncada the Sox second baseman until he proves he can play good defense and hit major league pitching.

 

Rebuilding is fraught with risks. It's not a slam dunk that a rebuild is going to go as planned. Teams can be mired in mediocrity for decades if things don't go as planned. If Moncada doesn't live up to the lofty expectations the Sox have for him, their rebuild will be in big trouble. I have hopes that he turns out to be a superstar and is a cornerstone of the White Sox for years to come. But I'm not going to pretend that he's a sure thing either.

[SCCWS]

Of course all players have weaknesses. I knew Moncada, like all prospects, was a risk. I don't believe any prospect is a sure thing, including Moncada. Prospects are suspects until they prove themselves over time at the big league level.

 

Two weaknesses that have plagued the Sox for a long time now are poor defense and problems making contact. It's too bad these happen to be the weaknesses of the latest top Sox prospect.

 

That's why Yolmer Sanchez is a breath of fresh air because he can actually play plus defense at 2B and it looks like he can at least hold his own against major league pitching. I'm just not as anxious as some to anoint Moncada the Sox second baseman until he proves he can play good defense and hit major league pitching.

 

Rebuilding is fraught with risks. It's not a slam dunk that a rebuild is going to go as planned. Teams can be mired in mediocrity for decades if things don't go as planned. If Moncada doesn't live up to the lofty expectations the Sox have for him, their rebuild will be in big trouble. I have hopes that he turns out to be a superstar and is a cornerstone of the White Sox for years to come. But I'm not going to pretend that he's a sure thing either.

 

I think Moncada will always be a average to below average infielder. Whether he is moved to the outfield because of that remains to be seen. So the issue is his power numbers and speed on the bases versus his KO rate. If the SO rate improves, you live w the defense becuase the offense could be very high production. But at the present time in AAA, he is still trying to improve the KO rate.

[caulfield12]

What is that comment about potential Moncada defensive issues not being correctable based on?

How many times have you watched him on video or in-person, just curious...?

 

Not saying you might not be right, necessarily.

[Chicago White Sox]

What is that comment about potential Moncada defensive issues not being correctable based on?

How many times have you watched him on video or in-person, just curious...?

 

Not saying you might not be right, necessarily.

Everything he says is based on the 8 games & 20 plate appearances he had with the Red Sox.

[caulfield12]

Everything he says is based on the 8 games & 20 plate appearances he had with the Red Sox.

 

What's interesting to me is that, looking at the other hugely desired piece, Benintendi is "only" heading for a 2.5ish fwar despite the pretty gaudy offensive numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&page=1_30

 

Guys like Inciarte, Avi, Conforto, Turner, Gallo, Domingo Santana, Gamel, Kepler...all ranked higher. Heck, even Leury Garcia is at 1.6 despite missing the last 2-3 weeks.

 

Is this simply a case of Boston/ESPN hype being so overwhelming that nobody can be objective about him? Because he's a left fielder and not RF?

 

I can't imagine any GM not taking Benintendi back for any of those players listed...so do we over rely on FWAR or are we too easily seduced by the East Coast hype machine?

 

 

 

Another example, Ian Happ and Byron Buxton have almost the same value, 1 vs. 0.9. Is Happ a 2.5 guy (not bad, but far from an All Star)...(talking ROY with Bellinger in same league, really?) another example of PR and Cubs' popularity? And yet nobody in baseball would trade Happ for Buxton and live to tell about it.

Edited July 11, 2017 by caulfield12

[Dam8610]

What's interesting to me is that, looking at the other hugely desired piece, Benintendi is "only" heading for a 2.5ish fwar despite the pretty gaudy offensive numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&page=1_30

 

Guys like Inciarte, Avi, Conforto, Turner, Gallo, Domingo Santana, Gamel, Kepler...all ranked higher. Heck, even Leury Garcia is at 1.6 despite missing the last 2-3 weeks.

 

Is this simply a case of Boston/ESPN hype being so overwhelming that nobody can be objective about him? Because he's a left fielder and not RF?

 

I can't imagine any GM not taking Benintendi back for any of those players listed...so do we over rely on FWAR or are we too easily seduced by the East Coast hype machine?

 

 

 

Another example, Ian Happ and Byron Buxton have almost the same value, 1 vs. 0.9. Is Happ a 2.5 guy (not bad, but far from an All Star)...(talking ROY with Bellinger in same league, really?) another example of PR and Cubs' popularity? And yet nobody in baseball would trade Happ for Buxton and live to tell about it.

 

The Benintendi thing is probably because he's playing LF. As I recall, most scouts thought/think his defense is CF caliber, which would probably make his fWAR much higher.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Dam8610