Ranking the 12 Players Received in the 1st Big 3 Trades Plus IS

[ChiSox59]

Very little Diaz love in this thread. It's been a rough year for him so far but the guy has a heck of an arm and will be a backend of the bullpen guy in a couple years.

[Chicago White Sox]

Very little Diaz love in this thread. It's been a rough year for him so far but the guy has a heck of an arm and will be a backend of the bullpen guy in a couple years.

Yeah, I would certainly have him ranked over Rose & Flete.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[mmmmmbeeer]

Why do people act like Gavin Floyd is a bad thing? In his 7 years here he pulled an ERA+ of 105. He also gave us 1000+ IP in about 5 and a half seasons of work. He is the kind of guy you would love to have in the 3 or 4 slot in your rotation.

 

Not to mention, many of the issues Sox fans had with Gavin were with how timid he was on the mound and in his approach. He was just weak mentally, from what I saw. His stuff was incredible. If Gio has Floyd's stuff with a stronger head on his shoulders, you're looking at a pretty damn good #2 or #3 starter.

[mmmmmbeeer]

1. Kopech -- great attitude, wants to learn, and has generational talent.

2. Moncada -- 5 strong tools but, call me an idiot, his arrogant swagger and twinkie diet concern me. Seems entitled.

3. Jiminez -- Great head on his shoulders and is willing to put in the work. Young Dye comps make me very happy.

4. Lopez -- This is a guy who needs to be called up and work with Coop. Outside of Kopech, I think he has the potential to have the best stuff in the system, potential #1 on many teams.

5. Giolito -- The fact he faded so much as a prospect but has worked his way back speaks volumes to his mentality. I have high hopes.

6. Robert -- Great swing on a practice field, great tools and body, but need to see him playing in the states at a higher level before buying the hype.

7. Cease -- Potential for greatness is there but health and durability have to be concerns.

8. Dunning -- I should probably rank him higher as I think he has a ton of potential but would like to see him advance in the system before rising in rankings.

9. Basabe -- Eh

10. Flete/Diaz/Rose -- Don't know enough about them.

[Jake]

It honestly surprises me how much unanimity there is everywhere on Kopech being a top 25 or better prospect in all of baseball. There's no doubting the prodigious talent and the true ace potential, so don't get me wrong because I'm very glad to have him around. But for me, I need to see a pitcher have a walk rate that is somewhere below alarmingly high before I put him in that top level.

 

The only stint in which Kopech had an acceptable walk rate was when he pitched 65 innings in low-A in 2015 (3.74 BB/9, which isn't exactly low but is workable). Otherwise, he's had 5.93 BB/9 (2014, Rookie), 5.02 BB/9 (2016, A+), and 5.87 BB/9 (2017, AA). That's not to ignore his equally-amazing K rate at these levels, but to me I don't see him any higher than, say, 40 or 50 on a top 100 due to these problems.

 

By analogy, I see it like a hitting prospect with a .900 OPS and a bunch of homers but 35% K% at each level. You love the production, but you fear how the strikeout rate has such a big chance of ruining it all.

 

Looking at it another way, Kopech hasn't had a single start this year in which he had fewer than *2* walks. His issues with walks have been remarkably consistent. He's had 6 starts with 2 walks, 3 with 3 walks, 6 with 4 walks, and 2 with 5 walks. There's very little variation, he just always has walks. And in 3 of his starts with only 2 walks, he hit one or more batters. I just want to see a run of starts with good command, but with him hitting his innings wall I don't know that we'll see it this year.

[soxfan49]

The Nationals, Cubs, Houston, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies....all called future dynasties at some point. Reality is there are probably no dynasties.

I think the point was "theSox have a s*** load of great talent"

[mmmmmbeeer]

It honestly surprises me how much unanimity there is everywhere on Kopech being a top 25 or better prospect in all of baseball. There's no doubting the prodigious talent and the true ace potential, so don't get me wrong because I'm very glad to have him around. But for me, I need to see a pitcher have a walk rate that is somewhere below alarmingly high before I put him in that top level.

 

The only stint in which Kopech had an acceptable walk rate was when he pitched 65 innings in low-A in 2015 (3.74 BB/9, which isn't exactly low but is workable). Otherwise, he's had 5.93 BB/9 (2014, Rookie), 5.02 BB/9 (2016, A+), and 5.87 BB/9 (2017, AA). That's not to ignore his equally-amazing K rate at these levels, but to me I don't see him any higher than, say, 40 or 50 on a top 100 due to these problems.

 

By analogy, I see it like a hitting prospect with a .900 OPS and a bunch of homers but 35% K% at each level. You love the production, but you fear how the strikeout rate has such a big chance of ruining it all.

 

Looking at it another way, Kopech hasn't had a single start this year in which he had fewer than *2* walks. His issues with walks have been remarkably consistent. He's had 6 starts with 2 walks, 3 with 3 walks, 6 with 4 walks, and 2 with 5 walks. There's very little variation, he just always has walks. And in 3 of his starts with only 2 walks, he hit one or more batters. I just want to see a run of starts with good command, but with him hitting his innings wall I don't know that we'll see it this year.

 

Can't argue your point being it's certainly fair. That said, I personally look past the wildness because, A, he has the stuff to pitch around baserunners and, B, he just turned 21 and is open to coaching adjustments which can go a long way in reigning in control issues if there's a flaw in his delivery. I think he's looking at at least another year of seasoning/coaching before he comes to Chicago. A lot can change in that time.

[steveno89]

It honestly surprises me how much unanimity there is everywhere on Kopech being a top 25 or better prospect in all of baseball. There's no doubting the prodigious talent and the true ace potential, so don't get me wrong because I'm very glad to have him around. But for me, I need to see a pitcher have a walk rate that is somewhere below alarmingly high before I put him in that top level.

 

The only stint in which Kopech had an acceptable walk rate was when he pitched 65 innings in low-A in 2015 (3.74 BB/9, which isn't exactly low but is workable). Otherwise, he's had 5.93 BB/9 (2014, Rookie), 5.02 BB/9 (2016, A+), and 5.87 BB/9 (2017, AA). That's not to ignore his equally-amazing K rate at these levels, but to me I don't see him any higher than, say, 40 or 50 on a top 100 due to these problems.

 

By analogy, I see it like a hitting prospect with a .900 OPS and a bunch of homers but 35% K% at each level. You love the production, but you fear how the strikeout rate has such a big chance of ruining it all.

 

Looking at it another way, Kopech hasn't had a single start this year in which he had fewer than *2* walks. His issues with walks have been remarkably consistent. He's had 6 starts with 2 walks, 3 with 3 walks, 6 with 4 walks, and 2 with 5 walks. There's very little variation, he just always has walks. And in 3 of his starts with only 2 walks, he hit one or more batters. I just want to see a run of starts with good command, but with him hitting his innings wall I don't know that we'll see it this year.

 

I'm with you, but kopech is only 21 years old and should be given time to work on harnessing his great stuff.

 

Pure ceiling is a true number one starting power pitcher, which is absolutely worth some risk. He likely will begin 2018 in AAA and still be young for that level. He should be ready for MLB at some point in 2019.

[soxforlife05]

Moncada

Kopech

Eloy

Robert

Gio

Lopez

Cease

Dunning

Basabe

Rose

Flete

Diaz

[steveno89]

Ranking the trades with risk/reward/loss considered.

 

1.) Eaton Trade - To me Eaton was an awesome player who would age quickly and continue to get hurt. Loved that the Sox got three potential starters with all different profiles. Sox took their valuable, yet risky, asset and diversified it into three guys with considerable MLB upside.

 

2.) Swarzak Trade - Obviously love getting the big prospects in Sale/Q but this is no risk with considerable reward.

 

3.) Sale Trade - Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball so this is tough but Moncada was huge for me. If Moncada reaches 70% of his ceiling I think 6.5 years of him is just a little less than 3 years of healthy Sale. The move had to be done though. Kopech needs to be a stud to win this won because Diaz/Basabe have nosedived since the trade.

 

4.) Q trade - I was stuck between this one and Sale but I never saw us getting a guy like Jimenez. Huge props to Hahn on that. My worry is that Cease's ceiling isn't as high as once considered and the third and fourth guys are almost irrelevant.

 

I liked 1-4 at the time and still do after Sale/Eaton aging.

 

5.) Yankees trade - I loved the initial reports when i heard it was Rutherford ++ but was really disappointed when I saw the ++. Rutherford's prospect has been hurt since the draft. He played in the worst hitting park in baseball but could be the Yankees getting out before it's too late. Clarkin can't seem to stay healthy and maybe a MOTR guy and more likely a BOTR guy. Moving 2.5 years of Kahnle, a 1.5 a half of Robertson and Frazier in individual trade I would have thought we could get 5-6 prospects with two being top 100 types. I like Rutherford but there's a hefty bet on the Sox. This deal reeks of the White Sox trying to make up the money spent on Robert. The inclusion of an industry T30 gives Hahn and Co. a rationale defense of the move but I really doubt most teams evaluate Rutherford as a T30 let alone a T50 prospect. He's got the potential no doubt, but at some point we need the production to bring merit to the ranks.

 

My concern with many of these deals is that nearly all of the prospects the Sox have acquired are "projection" based prospects. Very few of our guys have legitimately performed well in the minors leagues, so we are still waiting for the "tools" to match up with on the field play.

 

We have rolled the dice almost entirely on prospects who have high major league ceilings, but many also have significant bust risks associated...which does frighten me some.

 

1) Moncada has a far higher bust risk than the #1 prospect in baseball should have. None of us can be happy to see the high strikeout rate combined with solid, albeit unspectacular numbers and feel comfortable. He is not currently a good enough defense player for his glove to create value like a Baez/Russell.

 

2) Kopech has outstanding stuff, but has yet to show enough control necessary to be a solid mlb starting pitcher. While he has been healthy, I am worried about him getting hurt throwing as hard as he does. Extremely high upside, but we need to see the control come a long way. He's only 21 so time is on his side.

 

3) Jimenez looks solid, can't really complain

 

4) Giolito is incredibly inconsistent from start to start, and there are concerns about fastball velocity/movement not being great. I feel the Nationals realized he was overhyped and swiftly dealt him while he still had value. I hope I am wrong.

 

5) Rutherford is pure projection right now. Scouts are convinced he will not stick in center, forcing him to have a heck of a bat to profile as a quality corner. No power has shown up yet. High risk trade.

 

6) Lopez has been solid, small size may lead him to the pen eventually. Remains to be seen.

 

7) Collins has had a poor year offensively, despite the power. High K% rate in A+ ball is concerning for a top 15 draft pick. Walks might not translate with AA/AAA/MLB pitching with better control.

 

8) Basabe/Diaz values have tanked

 

ETC. I realize all prospects have some downside, development and struggles, I just hope we get what we thought we were getting in alot of these players.