Sox send Frazier/DRob/Kahnle to NY ~ Rutherford/Clarkin/Clippard/Polo

[NCsoxfan]

Zero chance Kahnle straight up for Rutherford would ever happen if not for the rest of the deal.

 

As great as he has been this year, there is no track record of this level of success. I do believe he has turned a corner and could be a very good reliever, but he does not have the history that Chapman/Miller did at all.

 

Any higher up the prospect list starts to get into what most clubs consider to be an "untouchable" prospect, or one who is only moved in exchange for a cost controlled starting pitcher for example. Rutherford was very much on the table is Quintana trade discussions.

 

Trust in the moves Hahn and Co. are making.

 

Agree. Just for fun, imagine how we'd feel about this trade if it were made last December. We wouldn't believe it.

[heirdog]

I suppose any return can be debated but one constant theme I've noticed is any critic of the deals Hahn has made to this point say "one player short" or "a tick light on the back end."

 

Sale trade: "should've included Devers instead of Basabe & Diaz"

Eaton trade: "great but should've pried Robles instead of Giolito"

Quintana trade: "back end should've been better with Candelario"

Fraz/DRob/Kahnle trade: "Clarkin should've been 3rd piece w Andujar or Florial"

 

Given that we have basically been shopping most of these guys for over a year, Rick and team have a pretty good idea of the true market and what the best offers available.

 

Given that Rick has shown patience, even with some impatience on this board, it's fairly clear that he didn't just jump on any offer to dump these guys.

 

Given that there are still about 2 weeks left until the deadline, Rick's hand wasn't forced and ultimately these met the threshold of the type of return they could expect.

 

I'm extremely happy with these trades both individually and overall. I believe that the Sox did ample due diligence and extracted the appropriate returns that are realistic. I want the Sox to seek potential superstars and the more high end chips the more likely we hit on a few. Our system has plenty of B/C prospects that will likely be okay or surprise. Give me the blue chippers all day every day and I'll sacrifice the back end of deals.

[kwill]

Saving $20 million was absolutely a big factor in this trade. Sox shelled out $50+ for Robert, so saving $20 makes that more palatable to ownership I am sure.

 

This is a business after all.

 

This is the frustrating part of the trade as the White Sox will save money next year as they have nothing committed. Good Ole JR could have taken back a piece like Headley. He could be a nice veteran player to play some nice defense at third who knows maybe he has a nice first half and flip him. I am sure if we took him off the Yankees hands they would have upgraded prospect in take or thrown in another player.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not crazy upset over the trade, just not excited like the rest Hahn has pulled off.

 

 

 

[Lillian]

From my perspective, it is simply a matter of doing what is necessary to convert assets, which are not likely to be significant cost controlled contributors, when the Sox are ready to compete in 2020, into young prospects, with a high probability of success. Frazier was not going to be part of that future roster and therefore not likely to have even received a qualifying offer, at the end of the year. Robertson was an expensive closer, who would also not be around in 2020. In the meantime, closers are not very important to teams, which are not contending.

 

That leaves the most valued piece; Kahnle. I really like him. however he would be 31 in 2020 and getting expensive. His value now is greatly enhanced, playing on a contender. Our best young prospects are 20 to 23 years old. Anyone 28 is not going to be considered an integral part of the perennially contending team, that takes the field at the turn of the next decade. Therefore, it's not that Kahnle isn't a better player now, or even that he may end up having a better career than Rutherford. It's simply that he is not the right age for what the front office is building.

Of course, there is no guarantee that a 20 year old outfielder in A ball will realize his potential. That's the gamble with all prospects, and the scouting department has the best tools to assess that. We just have to trust that their assessment of a left handed bat, with Rutherford's potential, represents a good probability of being part of that future team. Kahnle is 8 years older than he is, which is a critical factor in this total equation. Moreover, he is a fireballing reliever. He is quite likely to be finished, when Rutherford realizes whatever is his potential.

 

It is for the same reason that many of us have already begun to speculate about the 30 year old Abreu being a potential trade candidate. If he should be traded, it won't be because he isn't good, or isn't expected to continue to be good, for a few more years. It will be because he can enhance the core of the team that will hopefully be in contention, during at least the first half of the next decade. Jose would then be entering his mid 30's, and likely his decline. It's really all about age and time, especially in this post PEDS era.

[Ozzie for Manager]

I suppose any return can be debated but one constant theme I've noticed is any critic of the deals Hahn has made to this point say "one player short" or "a tick light on the back end."

 

Sale trade: "should've included Devers instead of Basabe & Diaz"

Eaton trade: "great but should've pried Robles instead of Giolito"

Quintana trade: "back end should've been better with Candelario"

Fraz/DRob/Kahnle trade: "Clarkin should've been 3rd piece w Andujar or Florial"

 

Given that we have basically been shopping most of these guys for over a year, Rick and team have a pretty good idea of the true market and what the best offers available.

 

Given that Rick has shown patience, even with some impatience on this board, it's fairly clear that he didn't just jump on any offer to dump these guys.

 

Given that there are still about 2 weeks left until the deadline, Rick's hand wasn't forced and ultimately these met the threshold of the type of return they could expect.

 

I'm extremely happy with these trades both individually and overall. I believe that the Sox did ample due diligence and extracted the appropriate returns that are realistic. I want the Sox to seek potential superstars and the more high end chips the more likely we hit on a few. Our system has plenty of B/C prospects that will likely be okay or surprise. Give me the blue chippers all day every day and I'll sacrifice the back end of deals.

 

I see that too but when the other team is not willing to add that extra player than you have to either make the best deal you can or do nothing at all. The people who make those posts think it would have been so easy to get another player in return when nothing could be farther from the truth. And one thing to remember about selling anything is that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

[Lillian]

This is the frustrating part of the trade as the White Sox will save money next year as they have nothing committed. Good Ole JR could have taken back a piece like Headley. He could be a nice veteran player to play some nice defense at third who knows maybe he has a nice first half and flip him. I am sure if we took him off the Yankees hands they would have upgraded prospect in take or thrown in another player.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not crazy upset over the trade, just not excited like the rest Hahn has pulled off.

 

The money saved now and next year can be used at the end of the rebuild, when the team is ready to contend. Hahn actually stated something to that effect.

[chitownsportsfan]

The worst about the "trust the process" type rebuilds is you get two types of "new" fan that start to post and become vocal.

 

You have the type that is pissed about Moncada coming up because it will weaken our farm system ranking (lol) or they feel that every single stud prospect must OPS 1000 in AAA for two seasons before getting called up.

 

Then you have the "they are just being cheap" type of fan that conflates being cheap with payroll flex. Listen, I know some of you guys are battered wife bulls fans but JR DOES NOT RUN THE SOX LIKE THE BULLS. He never has, and never will. If you're a fan of both teams, you probably already know this.

 

Just be excited guys. The Sox have #1 overall farm system in baseball with a bullet. Pulling those guys up and having them learn at the MLB level is going to be a part of trusting the process. Not everybody is going to hit, but not everybody is going to bust either.

[steveno89]

I don't understand how this is a factor in making this trade happen. It absolutely is a reason for why we were going to trade them, but it doesn't matter in terms of making this trade versus making a different trade.

 

MLB is a business in which the owner's goal is to make money, don't lose sight of that. When Hahn can save his boss about $20 million after shelling out $50+ for Robert it really helps lessen the sting.

 

Hahn stated twice in the press conference about how the Yankees paying the entire salaries of Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson did play a factor. Was it the only factor? No, but a factor nonetheless.

 

As fans we sometimes lose sight that ownership can only stomach spending so much money before it stops making sense. $20 million is considerable savings in this case.

[Jake]

There are two separate questions re: Rutherford. One is how good is he, what will he turn into, is he over/underrated, that basic thing. The other is what his market value likely was. His market value is sufficiently high that it's quite incredible that we got him in a deal that centered on Tommy Kahnle. You might disagree about what the market thinks, that's question one. But based on extracting market value from his pieces, Hahn did fairly well here.

[coco1997]

I suppose any return can be debated but one constant theme I've noticed is any critic of the deals Hahn has made to this point say "one player short" or "a tick light on the back end."

 

Sale trade: "should've included Devers instead of Basabe & Diaz"

Eaton trade: "great but should've pried Robles instead of Giolito"

Quintana trade: "back end should've been better with Candelario"

Fraz/DRob/Kahnle trade: "Clarkin should've been 3rd piece w Andujar or Florial"

 

Given that we have basically been shopping most of these guys for over a year, Rick and team have a pretty good idea of the true market and what the best offers available.

 

Given that Rick has shown patience, even with some impatience on this board, it's fairly clear that he didn't just jump on any offer to dump these guys.

 

Given that there are still about 2 weeks left until the deadline, Rick's hand wasn't forced and ultimately these met the threshold of the type of return they could expect.

 

I'm extremely happy with these trades both individually and overall. I believe that the Sox did ample due diligence and extracted the appropriate returns that are realistic. I want the Sox to seek potential superstars and the more high end chips the more likely we hit on a few. Our system has plenty of B/C prospects that will likely be okay or surprise. Give me the blue chippers all day every day and I'll sacrifice the back end of deals.

 

I really think the Shelby Miller trade skewed a lot of people's perceptions of what a realistic return is for a good, young, cost-controlled player.

[kwill]

MLB is a business in which the owner's goal is to make money, don't lose sight of that. When Hahn can save his boss about $20 million after shelling out $50+ for Robert it really helps lessen the sting.

 

Hahn stated twice in the press conference about how the Yankees paying the entire salaries of Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson did play a factor. Was it the only factor? No, but a factor nonetheless.

 

As fans we sometimes lose sight that ownership can only stomach spending so much money before it stops making sense. $20 million is considerable savings in this case.

 

I guess my point is take back Headley for next season as a positional player. JR can easily makeup for any money loss on Robert next year. The White Sox currently have 26 million dollars worth of contracts for next year. Lets say there is another 25 million in paying cost control guys and arbitration that bring up the total to 51 million dollars. The lowest payroll team this year was the Milwaukee Brewers at 79 million dollars. We could easily afford Headley for next year and JR could save his money.

 

You could easily play the what if game in baseball but lets not act like Reinsdorf is not making a bundle off of this rebuild. In fact, It would make some sense for him to possibly look to sell the team. From a business perspective you have lowest amount committed money moving forward with the same steady revenue. That is part of the reason you may see Stanton get moved at the deadline.

[bmags]

I would really like to see Rutherford go on a tear. Eloy has shown so much better at a similar level with a recovering shoulder.

[hi8is]

I would really like to see Rutherford go on a tear. Eloy has shown so much better at a similar level with a recovering shoulder.

This is Rutherford's first opportunity to be challenged and adjust. It seems like he may have done so as he's been on a tear for the past 10'games.

[iamshack]

SB Nation

Interesting piece about the trade, but what I even found more interesting was his reference to something he wrote about the Astros 3 years ago:

 

We're dealing with a small sample -- just 15 teams. But in the last decade, there have been 15 teams who placed in the top five of a Baseball America farm-system ranking, and only one of them didn't make the playoffs within four seasons. The one that didn't made it in the fifth season. Only three of the 15 weren't over .500 four seasons later.

 

Sounds like our expectations aren't entirely crazy.

[OmarComing25]

His July numbers in 14 games are .327/.373/.455 with a strikeout rate of less than 7% (though walk rate is just 3.4%)

[GenericUserName]

MLB is a business in which the owner's goal is to make money, don't lose sight of that. When Hahn can save his boss about $20 million after shelling out $50+ for Robert it really helps lessen the sting.

 

Hahn stated twice in the press conference about how the Yankees paying the entire salaries of Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson did play a factor. Was it the only factor? No, but a factor nonetheless.

 

As fans we sometimes lose sight that ownership can only stomach spending so much money before it stops making sense. $20 million is considerable savings in this case.

 

If he did say that and no other team was going to take Robertson or Frazier without us retaining money I'll start looking at the trade differently. It would explain why I think the trade was weak, because the excess value we gave up went towards the Yankees taking more money, which effectively makes the trade Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier for Rutherford/Clarkin/Polo/Clippard (or whatever we can trade him for)/one quarter of Luis Robert.

[rowand's rowdies]

I hope some of these savings and low payrolls get put back into quality minor league instructors & coaches. They should also be paying retired former White Sox players to come back and sign autographs at every home game for the fans who will have to suffer through some bad games this year and next.

 

Baseball America Organizational Talent Rankings

 

2010

 

TB

TEX

CLE

SF

BOS

 

2011

 

KC

TB

ATL

TOR

NYY

 

2012

 

TEX

KC

SD

AZ

TOR

 

2013

 

STL

SEA

TEX

TB

MIA

 

2014

 

PIT

BOS

MIN

CHC

HOU

 

2015

 

CHC

BOS

LAD

MIN

NYM

 

Just interesting to see how those farm systems were ranked and how they have fared in the 3-5 year window since being ranked.

[bmags]

His July numbers in 14 games are .327/.373/.455 with a strikeout rate of less than 7% (though walk rate is just 3.4%)

 

Good stuff, I know he had a walkoff granny recently.

 

I mean Longenhagen's review of him was sparkling, and I like Hudson tweeting out favorably.

 

It's clear he passes the eye test in a way that his performance hasn't caught up, but that can catch up in a hurry.

[Dam8610]

I'm sure this has already been posted, but for anyone who still thinks Kahnle is headed to worthless territory in a few months, here is a nice article with detailed breakdown on Kahnle's success. Also includes a nice comparison of him to another well known reliever.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...jor-trade-chip/

 

But Fangraphs is also a major proponent of ABTR. It's very possible that Kahnle has improved to this new level of performance, but he's am arm injury away from losing all his value even in that scenario, which is the most optimistic one. Considering that ABTR has never applied to the White Sox as much as it does right now, extracting what value could be extracted for Kahnle now was the smart move.

[shakes]

The fact is prospect rankings are done by people who aren't paid by MLB teams. So their relevance, and judging whether a trade was good or not based off that, doesn't matter. I'll never forget hearing the story how Dave Wilder BS'd his way into having his guys ranked higher.

 

Ultimately, it doesn't matter what Jonathan Mayo or Keith Law or any of these guys think, it's what the White Sox think. They made these trades thinking they are trading for the correct pieces. Who knows, maybe to them, Rutherford is a top 10 guy. maybe to the Yankees he's a top 60. If they are wrong, the "well Keith Law really liked it" doesn't make it excusable. If they are right, it's all on them as well, not it was a no brainer. They can only trade these guys once. Hopefully the main pieces turn out as well as they hope.

 

Great point. This is the way as fans we are forced to learn about prospects, but these lists are a ton of group think in the blogging industry and individual player analysis are usually only as good as the scout that was willing to give that player an opinion, and what that scouts motives happen to be. The closer to the top you get the better these lists are. They are not great at seeing big rises ahead of time.

 

Team evaluations are much different, and they are much better at seeing projection. It's clear the Sox really liked Rutherford, and that is important. Doesn't make them right or wrong, but they are confident about him. And he is a very clean prospect.

 

Hahn obviously values top end talent, and others have pointed out, he is willing to concede a bit on secondary pieces to get better talent up front. I personally love this philosophy.

[witesoxfan]

This is the frustrating part of the trade as the White Sox will save money next year as they have nothing committed. Good Ole JR could have taken back a piece like Headley. He could be a nice veteran player to play some nice defense at third who knows maybe he has a nice first half and flip him. I am sure if we took him off the Yankees hands they would have upgraded prospect in take or thrown in another player.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not crazy upset over the trade, just not excited like the rest Hahn has pulled off.

 

Please tell me again how the conversation went in the war room when Rick Hahn made the trade with the Yankees, because obviously you are well versed enough to know that Rick Hahn said "Hey Brian Cashman, please give me more prospect for taking on your Chase Headley" and Cashman said "OK I give more prospect" and Jerry Reinsdorf said "NO, I DO NOT WANT MORE PROSPECT IF IT MEANS CHASE HEADLEY MONEY!"

[bmags]

I feel like prospect rankings have become pretty good. It will never become a perfect industry since they are grading humans, but i think it's asign of their quality that a lot of writer evaluators have been plucked for front office gigs.

 

The BA guys are at games all the time. They go to high school fields in montana. But they also disagree with each other, so they will certainly disagree with some team evaluations.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Crain was having an extremely dominating season before going down and was coming off two straight above average seasons. Jesse Crain had a lot of value...of course by the point we were about to trade Arrietta for Crain..it was after he was hurt (and his value had already been diminished significnatly) and when he was about to come back (or so we thought...reality was he was never the same after that injury). Had we sold Crain before he got hurt that year, we'd have got some nice chips. He had a .74 ERA in 38 games that year (and the prior two seasons with the Sox had a 2.62 and 2.44 ERA) while striking out 11.3, 11.3, and 9.6 batters per nine innings. He put up a 2.4 WAR as a reliever in 38 games prior to going down with that injury. That is filthy.

 

With one the best training staff in the league (this year seems like an outlier from the past decade) I think I would bet on Kahnle staying healthy with us than not. I am not sure people are trying to get rid of him like diseases after Jones went down, who has a pretty extensive injury history.

 

Heck if we are so distrusting of our training staff or are concerned with pitchers getting injured, we would have traded Sale a long time ago and wouldn't have drafted Rodon or Fulmer.

Edited July 19, 2017 by 2005thxfrthmmrs

[Dick Allen]

If Kahnle is such a huge injury risk, aren't all the White Sox pitchers, including their prospects?

[Chicago White Sox]

I suppose any return can be debated but one constant theme I've noticed is any critic of the deals Hahn has made to this point say "one player short" or "a tick light on the back end."

 

Sale trade: "should've included Devers instead of Basabe & Diaz"

Eaton trade: "great but should've pried Robles instead of Giolito"

Quintana trade: "back end should've been better with Candelario"

Fraz/DRob/Kahnle trade: "Clarkin should've been 3rd piece w Andujar or Florial"

 

Given that we have basically been shopping most of these guys for over a year, Rick and team have a pretty good idea of the true market and what the best offers available.

 

Given that Rick has shown patience, even with some impatience on this board, it's fairly clear that he didn't just jump on any offer to dump these guys.

 

Given that there are still about 2 weeks left until the deadline, Rick's hand wasn't forced and ultimately these met the threshold of the type of return they could expect.

 

I'm extremely happy with these trades both individually and overall. I believe that the Sox did ample due diligence and extracted the appropriate returns that are realistic. I want the Sox to seek potential superstars and the more high end chips the more likely we hit on a few. Our system has plenty of B/C prospects that will likely be okay or surprise. Give me the blue chippers all day every day and I'll sacrifice the back end of deals.

I'm not sure anyone really complained about the Eaton trade, but otherwise the "one player short" comments are frequent. And quite frankly, I think they reflect exactly what Hahn is trying to accomplish with these trades and that's grabbing the best potential impact talents possible. The hardest thing to find is stars and with greater restrictions on the draft & international free agency it's got even harder for rebuilding clubs. Basically, you have to get super lucky or spend big in free agency if you don't have great draft position or valuable that can be cashed in to kick off a rebuild.

 

We had three super valuable trade chips coming into this rebuild. For those three assets, we landed two blue chip positional prospects & five quality pitching prospects along with some filler (sorry Basabe). We were also able to use some of our payroll savings to add another potential positional star in Robert. That's a great start, especially on the pitching side, but obviously we needed more star upside on the positional side. IMO, even though I feel the trade is a player light when viewed in isolation, getting another potential blue chipper in Rutherford is HUGE for the overall process.

 

We all have to remember this is a numbers game. As much as I wish we could, we simply can't assume all these guys work out. Let's say we have four potential positional stars in Moncada, Jimenez, Robert, & Rutherford. If two of those guys become full-fledged superstars, one becomes an above-average everyday player, and the fourth guy completely flops, that's a huge win for us. We have enough organizational depth and payroll capacity to fill in holes with good/solid players. The important thing is finding two or three superstars for the lineup and another two or three in the rotation. Getting Rutherford puts us in a much better spot to achieve that goal. And while a much lesser consideration, losing Robertson & Kahnle puts us in a better position to land a future superstar in the 2018 draft.

 

So again, while I think this trade is a little light on its own merits, I think it was worth making when considering the whole process. I just think it's hard to pass on a potential superstar today, because you might get a better prospect with a higher ceiling down the road. I just don't think the reward is worth the risk, especially if you believe that Rutherford can be a blue chipper by next season.