Sox send Frazier/DRob/Kahnle to NY ~ Rutherford/Clarkin/Clippard/Polo

[iamshack]

I think if that were true Robertson would have been gone at some point before last night. No one is itching to pay 13 million + for a good but not dominant closer. Especially when its pretty obvious the Sox did not want to eat any of his salary in a deal.

 

Frazier was practically worthless. He didn't need to be here anymore and we couldn't offer the QO to get a pick because he would have more than likely accepted it. I don't even consider him an asset in this deal. Ultimately we get a top 30-40ish prospect plus two more actual prospects to unload the Robertson money and Kahnle.

Robertson was pretty dominant in save situations.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Robertson was pretty dominant in save situations.

And most teams that were whispered for him other than Washington would have used him as a setup man.

[iamshack]

And most teams that were whispered for him other than Washington would have used him as a setup man.

I don't suspect he would have suddenly sucked in other high-leverage situations.

 

It was the garbage time that he usually didn't fare well.

[T R U]

I don't suspect he would have suddenly sucked in other high-leverage situations.

 

It was the garbage time that he usually didn't fare well.

 

The fact that we couldn't deal him to Washington tells me a lot about what other teams viewed his value as

[ChiSox59]

If Robertson fetches you a back end top 100, then you don't end up with Rutherford. I personally would rather have one top 25 or 50 than two top 100's near the end of the list. The combined value of Robertson and Kahnle got him. The Sox couldn't get him with just Kahnle and absolutely had no shot with just Robertson. Of course it would have been nice to get more but it's not a bad deal by any means.

 

Perhaps. But I think Kahnle should get you Rutherford, who is probably more in the 60-75 range with his showing this year. The upside is definitely there.

 

I don't hate this deal. Just think someone like Florial instead of Tito at the back would have been more appropriate.

[Rowand44]

But why?

 

Frazier had no real value, Robertson is not a dominant closer and is still owed a lot of money. Kahnle is the only one of those guys that was worth anything, but he certainly wasn't worth 2 Top 100 guys.

Because I value Robertson and Kahnle more than you do, it's really that simple. I'm not saying that in an I'm right and you're wrong type of way, that's just where the disconnect is. Once again, I'm not pissed about the trade as I'm thrilled to get Rutherford in the organization, it's just not my favorite trade that Rick has made. It is a bit light imo.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Rowand44

[southsider2k5]

It should be noted the salary dump was a massive reason this trade was made to the point where Hahn mentioned it twice during his announcement presser. That's the very likely reason why the player return ended up so disappointing, moreso than any Sox players perceived value.

 

This is almost certainly a reverberation from the Robert signing.

[fathom]

This is almost certainly a reverberation from the Robert signing.

 

Benetti also mentioned it as a key part of the deal

[southsider2k5]

But Fangraphs is also a major proponent of ABTR. It's very possible that Kahnle has improved to this new level of performance, but he's am arm injury away from losing all his value even in that scenario, which is the most optimistic one. Considering that ABTR has never applied to the White Sox as much as it does right now, extracting what value could be extracted for Kahnle now was the smart move.

 

It doesn't even have to be that much. It is obvious he had mechanical problems before this season that wasn't allowing him to command the strike zone and consistently repeat delivery and release point. He would go through stretches where he couldn't find the strike zone at all. Could that happen again? I'd say the odds of that are much higher than his ending up in Andrew Miller land. For every Miller there are 50 Neal Cotts who have a fluke stretch or even entire season before imploding back to whence they came.

 

Another factor to think of is that Yankee Stadium tends to destroy a lot of people who might not be ready for those bright lights. I don't know Tommy Kahnle well enough between the ears to be able to guess if he could be one of those people or not, but there isn't a much tougher place to play in all of professional sports, let alone pro baseball than in the Bronx.

[Rowand44]

Cotts had no where near the stuff that Tommy does. The point is fine that he can regress, I'm certainly not going to argue that but with his stuff and the Sox history of fixing mechanical issues, it's not out of the realm of possibility at all that this season is the Kahnle we're going to get going forward.

[Eminor3rd]

I think you guys are making it more complicated than it is. There doesn't have to be an obvious winner or loser.

 

We traded present value for future value, it's that simple. Kahnle may turn elite, Rutherford may bust, but it doesn't matter -- Kahnle wasn't going to win championships for us, but Rutherford might. With as long as we've been obviously shopping all of our guys, I'm going to have a hard time believing that Hahn hasn't held out for max value. I understand if "max value" turns out to be less than we hoped or thought, but it is what it is.

 

It's possible that Kahnle returns more next year, but given the high injury rate of relievers combined with the extremely high injury rate of pitchers who see sudden, substantial velocity spikes, it's at least as likely that he returns less or nothing. Sometimes the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[Rowand44]

I think you guys are making it more complicated than it is. There doesn't have to be an obvious winner or loser.

 

We traded present value for future value, it's that simple. Kahnle may turn elite, Rutherford may bust, but it doesn't matter -- Kahnle wasn't going to win championships for us, but Rutherford might. With as long as we've been obviously shopping all of our guys, I'm going to have a hard time believing that Hahn hasn't held out for max value. I understand if "max value" turns out to be less than we hoped or thought, but it is what it is.

 

It's possible that Kahnle returns more next year, but given the high injury rate of relievers combined with the extremely high injury rate of pitchers who see sudden, substantial velocity spikes, it's at least as likely that he returns less or nothing. Sometimes the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

This is all fair but hey it's Soxtalk, we have to argue about something.

 

 

[iamshack]

I think you guys are making it more complicated than it is. There doesn't have to be an obvious winner or loser.

 

We traded present value for future value, it's that simple. Kahnle may turn elite, Rutherford may bust, but it doesn't matter -- Kahnle wasn't going to win championships for us, but Rutherford might. With as long as we've been obviously shopping all of our guys, I'm going to have a hard time believing that Hahn hasn't held out for max value. I understand if "max value" turns out to be less than we hoped or thought, but it is what it is.

 

It's possible that Kahnle returns more next year, but given the high injury rate of relievers combined with the extremely high injury rate of pitchers who see sudden, substantial velocity spikes, it's at least as likely that he returns less or nothing. Sometimes the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

This is an oversimplification that doesn't address actual market value of the asset today.

 

Under these assumptions, we might win any deal wherein we trade a player today for a player tomorrow.

 

That's not a reasonable analysis.

[Eminor3rd]

This is an oversimplification that doesn't address actual market value of the asset today.

 

Under these assumptions, we might win any deal wherein we trade a player today for a player tomorrow.

 

That's not a reasonable analysis.

 

You had to go onto the next sentence, where I argued that the amount of time spent on the deal likely ensures that we received market value.

[iamshack]

You had to go onto the next sentence, where I argued that the amount of time spent on the deal likely ensures that we received market value.

Yeah, which sucked. You don't need to trade into a rotten market if you control the guy for 3.5 more years.

 

Then I would have had to go onto your next sentence, which talks about relievers getting injured that see velocity spikes. '

 

Blah, blah...it was a f***ing light return.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah, which sucked. You don't need to trade into a rotten market if you control the guy for 3.5 more years.

 

Then I would have had to go onto your next sentence, which talks about relievers getting injured that see velocity spikes. '

 

Blah, blah...it was a f***ing light return.

 

I don't know what to tell you, man. If you gotta feel bad about it, then I guess you gotta feel bad about it.

 

I thought you said EYE was the one being a wet blanket, lol.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

So would it be worth holding onto Kahnle all the way into 2020, the first year they can legitimately expect to compete...or is there a case for a push in late 2019?

 

That's two years out, how likely is his current level to be sustained that far into the future?

 

And then they lose Avi/Abreu in all likelihood at that same time. 2020 has to be the year unless everything goes exactly right, which it never does...well, almost for the Cubs and Astros.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I think if that were true Robertson would have been gone at some point before last night. No one is itching to pay 13 million + for a good but not dominant closer. Especially when its pretty obvious the Sox did not want to eat any of his salary in a deal.

 

Frazier was practically worthless. He didn't need to be here anymore and we couldn't offer the QO to get a pick because he would have more than likely accepted it. I don't even consider him an asset in this deal. Ultimately we get a top 30-40ish prospect plus two more actual prospects to unload the Robertson money and Kahnle.

 

Actually I think Red Sox would have paid two B level prospects for Frazier and Robertson. Have you seen who they are running out there at 3rd right now? And they're pretty adamant about bringing Devers along slowly.

 

I think a deal with Red Sox didn't happen because Hanh wanted an A level prospect instead, and he probably view Clarkin and Polo as higher than the industry ranks them. The fact that Yankees were willing to eat Robertson's salary helped. That's why he threw in Kahnle as well, who has significant value on his own right now, and even more so in the future.

[iamshack]

I don't know what to tell you, man. If you gotta feel bad about it, then I guess you gotta feel bad about it.

 

I thought you said EYE was the one being a wet blanket, lol.

Haha!

 

Yeah, I think there are a lot of folks singing a different tune justifying this return as opposed to what was expected prior to learning of the package, whether that was in talking about hypothetical deals or the actual return once the package from our side was known.

 

I know we can all agree we hope we become YUGE Tito Polo fans

Edited July 20, 2017 by iamshack

[Dominikk85]

I think not eating more of robertsons salary (than taking clippard) is the only thing that you could the sox blame for.

 

If they ate more they could have gotten a top100 for him alone and maybe another one for kahnle later but is that better than one top30?

 

I would have like a better second piece than clarkin but the ownership probably wasn't willing to pay more.

Edited July 20, 2017 by GermanSock

[Chicago White Sox]

I think not eating more of robertsons salary (than taking clippard) is the only thing that you could the sox blame for.

 

If they ate more they could have gotten a top100 for him alone and maybe another one for kahnle later but is that better than one top30?

 

I would have like a better second piece than clarkin but the ownership probably wasn't willing to pay more.

Hahn said they offered to eat money with other teams, but this was the best deal from a value standpoint. Unfortunatly, they can't force the Yankees to give up a better prospect return in exchange for money.

[bmags]

If Sox eat as much of Robertsons deal as we did on Nats proposed deal, I think we are happier with return.

[bmags]

Hahn said they offered to eat money with other teams, but this was the best deal from a value standpoint. Unfortunatly, they can't force the Yankees to give up a better prospect return in exchange for money.

 

But they need to get under. There is some need there.

[steveno89]

If Sox eat as much of Robertsons deal as we did on Nats proposed deal, I think we are happier with return.

 

I'm sure we offered to eat salary, but likely it wouldn't have helped the return in this instance that much.

 

If Rutherford and/or Clarkin pan out this deal is a big win

[iamshack]

I'm sure we offered to eat salary, but likely it wouldn't have helped the return in this instance that much.

 

If Rutherford and/or Clarkin pan out this deal is a big win

I don't think this is a fair way to approach these deals.

 

If Rutherford busts, but Clarkin turns into a 5th starter, this is a big win?