Sox send Frazier/DRob/Kahnle to NY ~ Rutherford/Clarkin/Clippard/Polo

[Bob Sacamano]

Hahn said they offered to eat money with other teams, but this was the best deal from a value standpoint. Unfortunatly, they can't force the Yankees to give up a better prospect return in exchange for money.

 

^this. People on here say we should have eaten money to get a better return but you just can't force a team to do that. They figured this was the best offer while allowing them to eat almost no money (just Clippard's couple million and even he has value to us to throw some innings since we need guys in the pen).

Edited July 20, 2017 by soxfan2014

[username]

I don't think this is a fair way to approach these deals.

 

If Rutherford busts, but Clarkin turns into a 5th starter, this is a big win?

 

From a pure value standpoint, 6 years of control on a solid back end starter is pretty significant. Look at how much people are paying back end arms on the FA market. And we also shed a lot of $$ over the next few years between DRob's salary and Kahnle's arbitration raises.

 

Very few of us would be happy with that return, but it's not as far off as it seems.

[iamshack]

From a pure value standpoint, 6 years of control on a solid back end starter is pretty significant. Look at how much people are paying back end arms on the FA market. And we also shed a lot of $$ over the next few years between DRob's salary and Kahnle's arbitration raises.

 

Very few of us would be happy with that return, but it's not as far off as it seems.

Except we already likely have that asset in our own system. You only need so many starting pitchers. While his handedness is welcome, there isn't much else to like about him.

[bmags]

^this. People on here say we should have eaten money to get a better return but you just can't force a team to do that. They figured this was the best offer while allowing them to eat almost no money (just Clippard's couple million and even he has value to us to throw some innings since we need guys in the pen).

 

The Yanks are going to be "forced" to shed salary to get under luxury tax threshold so I doubt this was an unlikely scenario.

[Bob Sacamano]

The Yanks are going to be "forced" to shed salary to get under luxury tax threshold so I doubt this was an unlikely scenario.

 

Eh they're over this season but are done paying A-Rod, Holliday, Sabathia, and, though not too significant, Pineda after this season. Headley and Gardner after next. That's a lot of salary being shed.

Edited July 20, 2017 by soxfan2014

[steveno89]

I don't think this is a fair way to approach these deals.

 

If Rutherford busts, but Clarkin turns into a 5th starter, this is a big win?

 

This deal was not made in a vacuum, Hahn knew what other offers for Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier were on the table. He stated this was the best overall offer and package they had received.

 

We always want more, but sometimes a compromise is best.

 

Rutherford + Clarkin + Polo + $20 million in salary relief is what this boils down to

[Chicago White Sox]

The Yanks are going to be "forced" to shed salary to get under luxury tax threshold so I doubt this was an unlikely scenario.

Are you sure about this?

 

They have at least $65M in salary coming off the books next year between A-Rod, Sabathia, & Holiday. Even with Robertson's $13M salary, it seems like they should have plenty of space below the luxury tax. And this assumes that Tanaka doesn't opt-out either.

[RockRaines]

Except we already likely have that asset in our own system. You only need so many starting pitchers. While his handedness is welcome, there isn't much else to like about him.

I'm not convinced we have enough MLB caliber starters at all.

[iamshack]

This deal was not made in a vacuum, Hahn knew what other offers for Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier were on the table. He stated this was the best overall offer and package they had received.

 

We always want more, but sometimes a compromise is best.

 

Rutherford + Clarkin + Polo + $20 million in salary relief is what this boils down to

I understand. That doesn't mean the deal will be a big win if Clarkin turns into a 5th starter and Rutherford busts.

[Bob Sacamano]

Are you sure about this?

 

They have at least $65M in salary coming off the books next year between A-Rod, Sabathia, & Holiday. Even with Robertson's $13M salary, it seems like they should have plenty of space below the luxury tax. And this assumes that Tanaka doesn't opt-out either.

 

I was gonna say too, if they were "forced" to go under, wouldn't they want the Sox pay some salary and maybe give up a better third piece or an additional prospect? The fact this didn't happen makes it seem like they aren't desperate.

Edited July 20, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Eminor3rd]

I'm not convinced we have enough MLB caliber starters at all.

 

Me either. The only time there's ever a "problem" from surplus is if you don't have ABs for guys in the same position in the MiLB. Any other time, we just trade the surplus for upgrades where we need them. That's why it's best to always focus on BPA.

[iamshack]

I'm not convinced we have enough MLB caliber starters at all.

Today? Probably not, but by the time Clarkin is going to be potentially ready (2-3 years?), I suspect we will have guys that are very similar or better options to him.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I understand. That doesn't mean the deal will be a big win if Clarkin turns into a 5th starter and Rutherford busts.

I'm with you on this. This deal is really Rutherford or bust. Clarkin can mitigate some of the loss or improve the gain, but he alone isn't going to turn the deal into a win.

[southsider2k5]

I understand. That doesn't mean the deal will be a big win if Clarkin turns into a 5th starter and Rutherford busts.

 

A solid 5th starter is worth more than a stud reliever for sure. It would be interesting to debate whether it is worth more than a good one and a stud one (assuming Kahnle stays a stud)

[steveno89]

I understand. That doesn't mean the deal will be a big win if Clarkin turns into a 5th starter and Rutherford busts.

 

Clarkin is not a bad pitching prospect by any means. His issue has been staying healthy.

 

Obviously Rutherford is the price here, but the Sox have extensively scouted the Yankees system and are obviously high on Rutherford/Clarkin/Polo.

 

Polo is an underrated player in my opinion. Small sample size, but he has been raking in 14 games since being called up to AA, putting up an OPS of 1.006. He has plus speed as well and solid contact skills. Likely will not be a starter, but I could see him playing the role of quality fourth outfielder.

 

Rutherford only recently turned 20 years old, so time is on his side development wise. Scouts like the approach, bat speed, swing and makeup for sure.

 

Look at it this way, would you rather have traded Robertson + $12 million for Luzardo and Ward...only to be stuck trying to package Kahnle/Frazier for something? I'm content with the return as of right now.

[caulfield12]

Not even convinced what we have in Rodon...or that he will be around for next Sox playoff team.

 

That said, Hansen/Dunning/Guerrero/Adams/Clarkin/Flores looks quite solid for at least two starters.

Then Kopech, Lopez and Cease...one makes it, two become high impact relievers.

 

Finally, Giolito and Fulmer. One more. Another reliever.

 

3/11

Edited July 20, 2017 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

We're going to have big problems if we can't find five starters between the following 12 guys:

 

Giolito

Lopez

Fulmer

Kopech

Adams

Guerrero

Stephens

Hansen

Dunning

Flores

Clarkin

Cease

 

And we may only need four starters depending on if they view Rodon as a long-term piece.

[iamshack]

A solid 5th starter is worth more than a stud reliever for sure. It would be interesting to debate whether it is worth more than a good one and a stud one (assuming Kahnle stays a stud)

Again, this assumes that we don't have that already.

 

I don't want to waste either of our mornings arguing about Ian Clarkin..let's agree to disagree.

[Chicago White Sox]

A solid 5th starter is worth more than a stud reliever for sure. It would be interesting to debate whether it is worth more than a good one and a stud one (assuming Kahnle stays a stud)

Gotta disagree here. A stud reliever is worth way more than a 5th starter.

[Bob Sacamano]

No such thing as too many arms. Some of these guys will make it as starters. Some will struggle and succeed in the bullpen. Some will just suck and be nothing.

Edited July 20, 2017 by soxfan2014

[bmags]

I am excited about Polo. It's an excellent name.

[caulfield12]

Gotta disagree here. A stud reliever is worth way more than a 5th starter.

 

Not from an fWAR perspective...Leury was worth more than Robertson, for example.

[steveno89]

I am excited about Polo. It's an excellent name.

 

I am digging Polo as well. If I had to bet which one out of Rutherford/Clarkin/Polo would at least play in the majors it would be Polo.

 

He seems very underrated and could become a quality bench bat/pinch runner who can handle time at each OF position. He does not walk a ton, but has shown he can make solid contact with a little pop.

 

I think he ends up being better than Basabe

[OmarComing25]

Not from an fWAR perspective...Leury was worth more than Robertson, for example.

I'm not sure fWAR properly values relievers anyway but the top relievers are worth ~2.5-3 WAR which is a #2-3 starter territory. And come playoff time having a Miller is much more valuable than having a good 5th starter, who won't be starting any playoff games.

[iamshack]

So Brian Cashman was just on MLB radio and actually said he and Kenny hammered this deal out.

 

He is very proud of his system and mentioned that often times other GMs will ask about some of his top guys, and he said he has to try and make it clear, that because of the depth of his system, oftentimes his 8-12 might be more equivalent to another team's 1-5. Other GMs don't want to hear that when he is trying to take guys like Torres and Mateo and Rutherford off the table.

 

Sounds like they really wanted Quintana. We must have been asking for Torres and Rutherford or something.