Melky thread

[southsider2k5]

It just feels like every contending teams outfield is awesome though.

 

Yeah, i can't think of which specific team actually has a need for him.

[soxfan3530]

Yeah, i can't think of which specific team actually has a need for him.

Rays? The Twins and Royals could use him, but inside the division might be difficult.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Rays? The Twins and Royals could use him, but inside the division might be difficult.

 

He's a rental who likely won't cost a lot so I don't think the same division stuff is an obstacle.

[GreenSox]

Melky will finish the season a 1 WAR player, if he gets hot.

Just get him off the team so others can play. Or simply bench him after July, if there are no takers at the freebie bin.

[ChiSoxJon]

Melky will finish the season a 1 WAR player, if he gets hot.

Just get him off the team so others can play. Or simply bench him after July, if there are no takers at the freebie bin.

And just as I was beginning to value WAR...I never will

[ChiSoxJon]

Keep Melky and take the comp pick.

Wish this was a legitimate option

[ChiSoxJon]

Delmonico played left tonight. Just sayin'.

Good, he should be up already, August OF of Delmonico-Engel-Avi L-R

[Bob Sacamano]

Good, he should be up already, August OF of Delmonico-Engel-Avi L-R

 

Ideally for me, it's: Delmonico-Engel-W. Garcia with someone overpaying for Avi

[ChiSoxJon]

Ideally for me, it's: Delmonico-Engel-W. Garcia with someone overpaying for Avi

I, for one, will be rooting against your cause...Luckily, I doubt Avi is dealt and rather extended in 2018 at some point

[The Sir]

And just as I was beginning to value WAR...I never will

 

Thanks for saying this. I am with you.

 

Know what Delmon Young's bWAR was in a season where he had 46 doubles and 112 RBIs? 1.9. Sub level, by their own explanation. Yeah, sure, call up that interesting 25 year old from AAA and he should manage this! Easy peasy!

 

What a load of s***.

[Quin]

Thanks for saying this. I am with you.

 

Know what Delmon Young's bWAR was in a season where he had 46 doubles and 112 RBIs? 1.9. Sub level, by their own explanation. Yeah, sure, call up that interesting 25 year old from AAA and he should manage this! Easy peasy!

 

What a load of s***.

 

 

Uh, 1.9 isn't sublevel.

[The Sir]

Uh, 1.9 isn't sublevel.

 

Check out Baseball Reference. 8+ is MVP, 5+ is AS, 2+ is starter, 0-2 is "sub".

[Kalapse]

Thanks for saying this. I am with you.

 

Know what Delmon Young's bWAR was in a season where he had 46 doubles and 112 RBIs? 1.9. Sub level, by their own explanation. Yeah, sure, call up that interesting 25 year old from AAA and he should manage this! Easy peasy!

 

What a load of s***.

Agreed, defense and baserunning should not be factored in when quantifying a player's overall worth. The fact that Delmon Young was a horrific defender should not play a factor. You're also looking at a couple counting stats (one of which does not and should not play a factor) when the guy had 613 PA that year.

[witesoxfan]

Thanks for saying this. I am with you.

 

Know what Delmon Young's bWAR was in a season where he had 46 doubles and 112 RBIs? 1.9. Sub level, by their own explanation. Yeah, sure, call up that interesting 25 year old from AAA and he should manage this! Easy peasy!

 

What a load of s***.

 

For starters, RBI is the most useless statistic in the game of baseball. In 2003, Barry Bonds hit .341/.529/.749/1.278 with 45 homers. He had 90 RBI. If you tell me he wasn't the best hitter in the game of baseball that year, I will be OK if I never talk baseball with you again.

 

Secondly, that year you're talking about, he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers. That was included. Of course, he was one of the worst defensive players in the majors, so that was rightly taken out. Thus, he was a slightly below average player, though an above average hitter.

 

Third, Melky Cabrera is a doubles hitter. He is not fast, he does not have a lot of power, he is not a great base runner, he is a below average defender, and he doesn't have much of an arm. He is a below average regular. He is a good hitter! But he is about a 1 WAR player. There is a reason he is a starter on the worst team in the AL and that he has not been moved yet.

 

In the end, if you don't want to pay attention to WAR, that's fine, but it's widely accepted and used statistic in today's game.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Check out Baseball Reference. 8+ is MVP, 5+ is AS, 2+ is starter, 0-2 is "sub".

 

A 2 WAR is an average MLB player. Thus, Delmon Young was slightly below average. That's fine, it's not like they're saying he was a bad player.

[The Sir]

Agreed, defense and baserunning should not be factored in when quantifying a player's overall worth. The fact that Delmon Young was a horrific defender should not play a factor. You're also looking at a couple counting stats (one of which does not and should not play a factor) when the guy had 613 PA that year.

 

Was his defense so bad that it totally destroyed the value of a fearsome hitter in the middle of the order? Sorry, I can't agree with that. Especially in a league with a DH.

 

Also, how did Young get 112 RBIs with only 21 HRs? Because he hit .355 with a .911 OPS with runners in scoring position. He was a clutch hitter. So I disagree that my counting stat should simply be disregarded in this case.

 

Point is, 2010 Delmon Young was a valuable player and WAR doesn't credit him for that. So I have a hard time taking it seriously.

[iamshack]

For starters, RBI is the most useless statistic in the game of baseball. In 2003, Barry Bonds hit .341/.529/.749/1.278 with 45 homers. He had 90 RBI. If you tell me he wasn't the best hitter in the game of baseball that year, I will be OK if I never talk baseball with you again.

 

Secondly, that year you're talking about, he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers. That was included. Of course, he was one of the worst defensive players in the majors, so that was rightly taken out. Thus, he was a slightly below average player, though an above average hitter.

 

Third, Melky Cabrera is a doubles hitter. He is not fast, he does not have a lot of power, he is not a great base runner, he is a below average defender, and he doesn't have much of an arm. He is a below average regular. He is a good hitter! But he is about a 1 WAR player. There is a reason he is a starter on the worst team in the AL and that he has not been moved yet.

 

In the end, if you don't want to pay attention to WAR, that's fine, but it's widely accepted and used statistic in today's game.

I get what you and Kalapse are saying, and I fully agree with you, except that there HAS to be some understanding that these metrics are always evolving and becoming more accurate. There also needs to be an understanding that there ARE other things players bring to the table that are not fully quantifiable. Players should be given credit for those attributes as well. Just like a guy like Bonds, who was a complete douche canoe, somehow managed to sour half the teams in the League on him despite being the world's best hitter for several years (although he did cheat).

 

So yes, Melky isn't an outstanding player. He does play substandard defense, he doesn't hit for power. He doesn't steal bases. He doesn't draw a ton of walks, etc.

 

That all being said, he is a professional hitter, he doesn't strike out much, he does have a decent arm, and he tends to be a tough out late in ballgames. He hits well with RISP and late and close. I get that a hitter doesn't control who is on base when he comes to the plate and I get that he doesn't control whether a pitcher pitches to him (ala Bonds), but it should not be DISCOUNTED if he actually tends to succeed when provided with those opportunities. Melky, at least in his recent tenure with the White Sox, does just that.

 

Melky is also a good clubhouse presence. The guy constantly enjoys himself and helps other guys enjoy himself. That has value.

 

Again, this is not meant to say that we should throw out his WAR numbers, but there ARE other considerations. In certain cases, such as with Melky, perhaps those considerations may come into play a bit.

 

[shipps]

The only rationale I could have against WAR in certain scenarios is that a team may be in a situation that they are desperately in need of a bat. A guy like Melky may hold more value to that team for their line up with his offensive potential and not care as much about his defensive and base running but it still doesn't change the fact that his WAR is still the best representation of his over all value in general.

[witesoxfan]

Was his defense so bad that it totally destroyed the value of a fearsome hitter in the middle of the order? Sorry, I can't agree with that. Especially in a league with a DH.

 

Also, how did Young get 112 RBIs with only 21 HRs? Because he hit .355 with a .911 OPS with runners in scoring position. He was a clutch hitter. So I disagree that my counting stat should simply be disregarded in this case.

 

Point is, 2010 Delmon Young was a valuable player and WAR doesn't credit him for that. So I have a hard time taking it seriously.

 

Had Delmon Young been an average defensive player, he would have been worth about 3.5 WAR. He was horrendous defensively.

[The Sir]

For starters, RBI is the most useless statistic in the game of baseball. In 2003, Barry Bonds hit .341/.529/.749/1.278 with 45 homers. He had 90 RBI. If you tell me he wasn't the best hitter in the game of baseball that year, I will be OK if I never talk baseball with you again.

 

Secondly, that year you're talking about, he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers. That was included. Of course, he was one of the worst defensive players in the majors, so that was rightly taken out. Thus, he was a slightly below average player, though an above average hitter.

 

Third, Melky Cabrera is a doubles hitter. He is not fast, he does not have a lot of power, he is not a great base runner, he is a below average defender, and he doesn't have much of an arm. He is a below average regular. He is a good hitter! But he is about a 1 WAR player. There is a reason he is a starter on the worst team in the AL and that he has not been moved yet.

 

In the end, if you don't want to pay attention to WAR, that's fine, but it's widely accepted and used statistic in today's game.

 

Bonds only had 90 RBIs because teams refused to pitch to him. He walked 148 times that year. That wasn't the case with Delmon- he just got clutch hits. That's why I think RBIs are a meaningful stat in this particular context.

 

And about his defense, he had 255 chances that year. So about 1.5 per game. He made 239 POs, and had 4 errors. Even if his errors were catastrophic and game-costing, that's four games. But at the plate, he had 96 RBIs in either tie games or when his team was within one run. He had 23 in BBRef's "late and close" situations. Just like I assumed about the errors, let's assume those 23 RBIs are game-saving/winning. His bat more than makes up for his D.

 

I know I'm discounting things in that looking at chances, POs and errors doesn't factor in range but still, I do not think his defense, putrid as it was, negates the value of his bat. Especially at a non-premium defense position.

 

 

[iamshack]

The only rationale I could have against WAR in certain scenarios is that a team may be in a situation that they are desperately in need of a bat. A guy like Melky may hold more value to that team for their line up with his offensive potential and not care as much about his defensive and base running but it still doesn't change the fact that his WAR is still the best representation of his over all value in general.

Well you also factor in that the postseason is a different animal than the regular season.

 

WAR is designed to value a player over the length of a 162 game season.

 

But if you recognize that the postseason brings entirely different strategies, because of the days off, and the importance of each game, then you quickly understand how a guy might be able to provide more value to your team in the postseason than in the regular season.

 

I believe Melky can add some value there as a late inning pinch hitter.

Edited July 21, 2017 by iamshack

[witesoxfan]

Bonds only had 90 RBIs because teams refused to pitch to him. He walked 148 times that year. That wasn't the case with Delmon- he just got clutch hits. That's why I think RBIs are a meaningful stat in this particular context.

 

And about his defense, he had 255 chances that year. So about 1.5 per game. He made 239 POs, and had 4 errors. Even if his errors were catastrophic and game-costing, that's four games. But at the plate, he had 96 RBIs in either tie games or when his team was within one run. He had 23 in BBRef's "late and close" situations. Just like I assumed about the errors, let's assume those 23 RBIs are game-saving/winning. His bat more than makes up for his D.

 

I know I'm discounting things in that looking at chances, POs and errors doesn't factor in range but still, I do not think his defense, putrid as it was, negates the value of his bat. Especially at a non-premium defense position.

 

Delmon Young had no range, no instincts, and not much of an arm. He was awful defensively.

[The Sir]

Delmon Young had no range, no instincts, and not much of an arm. He was awful defensively.

 

I believe you, and I appreciate this back-and-forth, but I maintain that none of those things outweighed what he could do at the plate.

 

Edited to say "none" instead of "one".

Edited July 21, 2017 by StrykerSox

[iamshack]

Delmon Young had no range, no instincts, and not much of an arm. He was awful defensively.

Wite, is it possible a player's WAR could be somewhat significantly disconnected though from his actual impact on wins and losses in a given season?

[witesoxfan]

I believe you, and I appreciate this back-and-forth, but I maintain that one of those things outweighed what he could do at the plate.

He wasn't that great at the plate though. By OPS he was 46th best in the game among qualified hitters and by wRC+, he was the 50th best hitter in the game. He was a good hitter; he wasn't a great hitter. He was a terrible defender. Everything considered, he was a below average player.

 

Also, I know why B-R has those things on their website, but to simply classify someone who is 0-2 WAR as a subtitute or bench player is wrong. Don't read into it as such. A 2 WAR is considered an average MLB starter. Below that is a below average starter OR bench player, and obviously anything more than that is an above average player. It's not a hard line stat - to say that a player with a 2 WAR is overtly better than a player who puts up a 1.8 WAR or even 1.5 WAR is not always correct.

 

Melky Cabrera has contributed to wins this year despite the Sox being absolutely terrible - he has a WPA of 1.31, which is pretty amazing for a team that's 15 games under .500 and falling fast.