7/19 Games (Fulmer, Stephens)

[oldsox]

Sounds like if Fulmer had spent all of 2016 in A+ and started this year in AA, you'd love him. I don't see how these guys repeating AA or in Stephen's case reaching AA at 24 years old is supposed to be some conclusive proof that Fulmer is an inferior prospect. It's fairly logical to think if we slow-walked Fulmer's development, he'd have a fan club following his AA debut this year with interest.

 

I've been wondering if he might be hurt since about mid-May this eyar, but what seems most clear is the Sox are paying the price for pushing his development timeline harder than was reasonable.

Good analysis, Jake, but it just might be a bad draft pick.

 

On another note, I saw that Luis Robert made a one at bat return, struck out, and was replaced.

[SoxAce]

Lenyn Sosa is really holding his own as s 17 year old down there.

[hi8is]

Ok you know what Ace, my life definitely is not over. I even have a second kid now and am still alive.

Seeing you post is like being reunited with a long lost family member

[T R U]

Seeing you post is like being reunited with a long lost family member

 

I'm always here

[iamshack]

I agree. Bring him up. They saw something in him when they signed him and put him on the 25. have no idea what, but see what he has. Just as soon find out.

Did we not bring him up already this year?

[MnSoxFan]

Good analysis, Jake, but it just might be a bad draft pick.

 

On another note, I saw that Luis Robert made a one at bat return, struck out, and was replaced.

That game was continued due to a past suspended game. He had that at bat weeks ago, he did not play after they resumed in the 2nd inning yesterday.

[bmags]

That game was continued due to a past suspended game. He had that at bat weeks ago, he did not play after they resumed in the 2nd inning yesterday.

 

Ha! Nice catch there!

[oldsox]

Ha! Nice catch there!

Ditto.

[southsider2k5]

Cody Asche hitting like Ted Williams is so bizarre.

 

Not if it is AAA.

[southsider2k5]

Sounds like if Fulmer had spent all of 2016 in A+ and started this year in AA, you'd love him. I don't see how these guys repeating AA or in Stephen's case reaching AA at 24 years old is supposed to be some conclusive proof that Fulmer is an inferior prospect. It's fairly logical to think if we slow-walked Fulmer's development, he'd have a fan club following his AA debut this year with interest.

 

I've been wondering if he might be hurt since about mid-May this eyar, but what seems most clear is the Sox are paying the price for pushing his development timeline harder than was reasonable.

 

Totally this. We need to forget about his numbers for a while, and keep Fulmer in perspective. This is a great post.

[southsider2k5]

Asche is up to .351 while hitting for power & drawing a ton of walks. At some point it seems a little ridiculous to keep a 27 year old with a ~180 wRC+ in the minors.

 

When they .100ish in the majors that changes things.

[Jake]

I get that point but not throwing strikes in AAA is the same as not throwing strikes in A or AA.

 

I still think the Sox called him up last year to show him that something he thought he was doing well would never work against MLB batters.

 

I disagree with the bolded. It's true that if you can't throw strikes at all, it doesn't matter where you pitch. But if your command is marginal, it really matters what the level of competition is. Think about how many guys we've seen with good command in AAA get called up to MLB and suddenly struggle with walks.

 

So what I would say is that his command issues in AAA *might* be a sign that he is simply incapable of strike-throwing, but it might also be a sign that he's not ready for the level or there's something else going on.

 

All you have to do is see the stuff he's throwing and it's pretty evident he's a long shot to perform well in the majors. His stuff has declined too much to make up for his mediocre command. Stephens had the injury issue, but unlike Fulmer, at least he's consistently getting AA hitters out

 

I've had limited ability to see him in AAA this year. I know that I've seen Carson Fulmer pitch with stuff that was plenty good enough to be a good MLB starter. I generally don't assume that if the stuff declines in a 23 year old without a known injury, that this is a permanent change. It's concerning, and maybe indicative of an injury, but when I think about Carson Fulmer I assume that at least with the right coaching and training, he has access to the good stuff we've all seen before.

 

When prospects regress, I want to know why. There's a chance that there was no regression; the player was always bad and his previous stats were lying to us. So looking at Fulmer, I have to ask, were his stats lying to us?

 

In 2016, he started off terribly. He pitched 46 innings over his first 10 starts, with a BB/9 and K/9 each about 7.00 to go with 6 homers allowed and a near 6.00 ERA. He threw strikes about 57% of the time. Bad!

 

Preceding his callup to the majors, he improved. In 41 IP over 7 starts, he had a 3.51 ERA, 11.8 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. He allowed 1 homer in that time and threw 64% strikes. I think it's fair to say that this good run of pitching was probably not a fluke, especially considering the high K rate.

 

Then he gets called up to the majors and I don't think we need to retread that ground. In his first start in AAA, he went down and got shelled in a 1 inning start. After that, combining his 3 final starts of last season and his first 7 of this season, he pitched fairly well: 54.2 IP, 2.14 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, allowing 6 HR and throwing 63% strikes. It's not exactly Cy Young level pitching, but it was good and made it look like he was on track to be a MLB pitcher again. I don't think it's a flukey 10 starts.

 

Now, he's on a 12 start stretch that has been rotten. 55 IP, 7.36 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 9 homers and 57% strike rate. Just like his rotten stretch when he started off in AA last year.

 

I admittedly don't break down every pitcher with shoddy season numbers this way, but I just don't get the feeling that most pitchers combine streaks of consistent good pitching with streaks of consistent horrible pitching. It makes me think there's a real ability for Carson Fulmer to pitch like the good version of himself if the White Sox can figure why Mr. Hyde keeps coming out.

 

What I do suspect, though, is that these peaks and valleys wouldn't be nearly so striking if he'd been given the developmental pace of someone like Alec Hansen.

 

[witesoxfan]

The precipitous fall off reminds me a lot of Erik Johnson, and Erik Johnson came back the following season after his disastrous campaign and had a phenomenal year. He's obviously recovering from Tommy John still, but Johnson became a super relevant name again.

 

 

[Rowand44]

EJ is a fine example. Just like EJ if Fulmer is mentally weak enough where he can't recover from his early time in the majors then he wasn't going to be successful anyways imo. I for once actually agree with fathom and just don't see the stuff there right now. Maybe it's an injury, maybe he's f'd up mechanically, I don't know but right now I don't see a legit major league starter either.

[witesoxfan]

EJ is a fine example. Just like EJ if Fulmer is mentally weak enough where he can't recover from his early time in the majors then he wasn't going to be successful anyways imo. I for once actually agree with fathom and just don't see the stuff there right now. Maybe it's an injury, maybe he's f'd up mechanically, I don't know but right now I don't see a legit major league starter either.

 

And that's the thing, we probably wouldn't have seen anything resembling good stuff from Johnson in 2014 either. Don't get me wrong, I haven't seen any of Fulmer this year, so I'm not disagreeing, just that you can't write him off because he's struggled this season.

[caulfield12]

Erik Johnson wasn't once considered one of the Top 2-3 pitchers in the NCAA, though...maybe even #1.

[Jake]

As we eventually learned with Johnson, he had a bum arm. When I pitched in college, I know I would do well in fits and starts (while my stuff seemed to have regressed) before we realized there was a pretty substantial labrum tear that wasn't really showing on MRIs.