Will Eloy Jimenez get to AA this year?

[caulfield12]

Look around the AL central, aside from Cleveland who's better? .500 baseball is not insurmountable. You don't think that roster can match what the Twins have done so far this year?

 

The Twins are not the gold standard, especially if Buxton never becomes the expected star-level player (due to their payroll constraints as well).

 

It all comes down to the Indians' pitching staff not falling apart. Fwiw, Zimmer looks REALLY really good so far. Santana, as far as I know, is likely their only key loss from this year's team heading into next year.

 

And this is with Lindor and Kipnis not playing near their peak/s.

[southsider2k5]

I think the tide is going to turn significantly faster than you do. But in any event, there is simply no defending the statement "this team has no chance at competing until next decade." That is categorically false. This team absolutely has a non-zero chance to compete. "Competing" does not equal "prohibitive Word Series favorites." Are they likely to win 90+ games in 2019? Probably not. But there is more than enough young talent making its way to Chicago by the end of next year to construct a slightly-above-.500 team if enough goes their way. And guess what, that constitutes competing in the two-Wildcard era. Obviously, the ultimate goal is a juggernaut team in the early '20s, but I don't know why you would 100% dismiss the idea that nothing will happen sooner. Sometimes I think people are so used to the "all-in/win-or-bust with patchwork veterans" Sox underacheiving and imploding that they don't realize how easy it is to be in a playoff race until late in the season these days, especially in the two-Wildcard era.

 

If you aren't able to win 90 games, you really aren't competing.

 

An 83 win team isn't competitive in my eyes. That is an average team.

 

Realistically we would need a ton to go right to be able to see even that .500ish team by 2019. Even the Cubs weren't above .500 until the fourth season after hitting bottom. That would put us at 2020 or even 2021 if next year is worse than this year. The Cubs not only burnt the ground down, but they were also going out and signing free agents during that span to start to build the roster. At this stage the White Sox are still burning down the house. 2018 is going to be a terrible team. IMO even with the prospects coming in, it is going to be closer to 2003 Tigers than .500. These kids will need time.

 

I get the prospect sheets look great now, but I think a lot of people are WAY too optimistic in their hopes for these kids as a whole, and have to realize that a lot of prospect flat out fail, and for every Kris Bryant that hits from his first day in the majors, there are a lot more guys like Avi Garcia and Kyle Shwarber who spend seasons struggling as well as guys like Tim Anderson whose development is up and down. Already this year we have seen steps back from guys like Giolito, Fulmer, Anderson, and Collins. This could be blips in the road, or it could be the tip of the iceberg for them. It is a statistical certainty that some will bust. Who and how many? Well that is the fun part.

[beautox]

Can Davidson and Moncada not strike out 30-40% of the time? By fwar, Davidson basically is replacement level value due to his strikeouts, lack of OBP and defensive shortcomings. How much "better" can he realistically be in the future? (According to Hawk, he has Schwarber upside, whatever that means exactly.)

 

that "hawk" for platoon bat

[southsider2k5]

strangers things have happened, but i put the odds of that happening at less than 5%.

 

Here is what we're likely looking at for the opening day 25 man roster.

 

DH -Abreu

C - Narvaez*

1B - Gillespie#

2B - Moncada#

SS - Anderson

3B - Davidson

LF - Cordell

CF - Leury#

RF - Engel

 

SP - Shields

SP - Rodon*

SP - Giolito

SP - Santiago* / Tillman - FA

SP - Lopez

 

CL - Petricka

SU - FA / Rule V

SU - FA

MR - Goldberg

MR - Danish

LO - Bummer*

LR - Holmberg* or Rule V

 

C - Smith

UT - Hanson#

CI - Delmonico*

OF - Tilson*

 

no amount of squinting gets you close to .500 for the year. Maybe post deadline they play around .500 with other promotions and give the appearance of being a dark horse for '19 but thats how I'm seeing them. The bullpen provided they can stay healthy should be better than what we're going to run with after the deadline in Petricka, Putnam and Jones. But Giolito, Lopez and Rodon are going to go through growing pains, and hopefully whomever they sign to bridge to the next wave of starters can be moved for something and shields can ride off in the sunset after '18.

 

This is a 65 win team at best in 2018 if there isn't a lot of bad luck.

[beautox]

This is a 65 win team at best in 2018 if there isn't a lot of bad luck.

Yes, even if Rodon, Giolito & Lopez come out the gates hot, that bullpen is more than likely going to be soul crushing and leave us begging for the '14 pen... and that still doesn't take into account that Shields and Random FA 5th starter are likely going to blow holes in any meaningful winning streak.

[caulfield12]

Btw, what is the current health status of Nate Jones?

 

He's actually going to be ready by the beginning of the 2018 season to be the closer, after all of his health problems?

[bmags]

Btw, what is the current health status of Nate Jones?

 

He's actually going to be ready by the beginning of the 2018 season to be the closer, after all of his health problems?

 

I was just wondering this today.

[Buehrlesque]

If you aren't able to win 90 games, you really aren't competing.

 

An 83 win team isn't competitive in my eyes. That is an average team.

 

Realistically we would need a ton to go right to be able to see even that .500ish team by 2019. Even the Cubs weren't above .500 until the fourth season after hitting bottom. That would put us at 2020 or even 2021 if next year is worse than this year. The Cubs not only burnt the ground down, but they were also going out and signing free agents during that span to start to build the roster. At this stage the White Sox are still burning down the house. 2018 is going to be a terrible team. IMO even with the prospects coming in, it is going to be closer to 2003 Tigers than .500. These kids will need time.

 

I get the prospect sheets look great now, but I think a lot of people are WAY too optimistic in their hopes for these kids as a whole, and have to realize that a lot of prospect flat out fail, and for every Kris Bryant that hits from his first day in the majors, there are a lot more guys like Avi Garcia and Kyle Shwarber who spend seasons struggling as well as guys like Tim Anderson whose development is up and down. Already this year we have seen steps back from guys like Giolito, Fulmer, Anderson, and Collins. This could be blips in the road, or it could be the tip of the iceberg for them. It is a statistical certainty that some will bust. Who and how many? Well that is the fun part.

I agree with more of what you say here, except a team the ends up with 83 wins is competing, and I think the Sox can do that by 2019. (Not saying they will, but they can.) That's not the ceiling of the organization's plans, like it was for most of the past decade, which is a welcome change. They will theoretically and hopefully only get better as a team on the rise. I think, by 2019, it will be more fun than people think.

[beautox]

Btw, what is the current health status of Nate Jones?

 

He's actually going to be ready by the beginning of the 2018 season to be the closer, after all of his health problems?

 

Jones underwent nerve repositioning surgery on his right elbow Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the season, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports. (7/13/2017)

 

maybe spring training

[caulfield12]

maybe spring training

 

So back problems, TJS and now this...I just don't see how realistically that contract ends up working out for the Sox.

 

In hindsight, we should have traded him when he was actually healthy, but that ship has sailed long ago, just as it did on Crede/Jenks/Floyd/Crain. Holland, in all likelihood, as well.

Edited July 27, 2017 by caulfield12

[beautox]

So back problems, TJS and now this...I just don't see how realistically that contract ends up working out for the Sox.

 

In hindsight, we should have traded him when he was actually healthy, but that ship has sailed long ago, just as it did on Crede/Jenks/Floyd/Crain. Holland, in all likelihood, as well.

 

2018: $4M

2019 Team Option: $4.6M ($1.2M buyout)

2020 Team Option: $5.2M ($1.2M buyout)

2021 Mutual Option: $6M

 

there are worse ways to spend 5.2M if they choose to buyout in '19

[steveno89]

Sox could easily be a .500 team in 2018.

 

 

I also don't see the point in wasting Moncada, Lopez, and Giolito's service time just so they can save Jimenez's.

 

.500 is crazy talk for 2018. We very well could be WORSE next season because we will not be held up by veteran players.

[turnin' two]

.500 is crazy talk for 2018. We very well could be WORSE next season because we will not be held up by veteran players.

 

Could be better if they aren't being held down by veteran players.

[steveno89]

Look around the AL central, aside from Cleveland who's better? .500 baseball is not insurmountable. You don't think that roster can match what the Twins have done so far this year?

 

I have to sound negative, but purely in being a realistic fan we are going to be very bad in 2018. The rotation, bullpen, defense and offense just are not going to be playoff caliber.

 

Notions of calling up prospects that are currently in Winston Salem is borderline absurd. Rushing prospects like Rutherford/Jimenez/Cease/Kopech/etc. would 1) Burn very valuable service time 2) Very likely greatly damage their development

 

Shields is still under contract, no team with designs on competing would allow him to be in their rotation.

 

Our bullpen will have zero reliable middle relievers, setup pitchers or established closer. How do we expect to contend?

 

Our path back to contention will be: suck 2017, suck 2018, return to around .500 in 2019, contend in 2020+

 

 

[steveno89]

Could be better if they aren't being held down by veteran players.

 

Possibly, but doubtful^

 

Guys like Cordell, Engel, W Garcia, Saladino, Davidson, Gillaspie, Sanchez, etc. will be given a shot, but even squinting I cannot see a team that could win 90+ games.

 

2019 would be the earliest this team could possibly be competitive, an that's a full season early.

[Bob Sacamano]

If they are the worst team in baseball with Giolito, Lopez, Rodon, Kopech, Moncada and Abreu (not to mention all the close to the majors guys they've acquired in the past month) something is seriously wrong. This is not like the Cubs or Astros, the Sox system is already built. They will add a blue chip guy again next June and after that it's over, there will be no more stockpiling of talent.

 

Next year is a year they should make effort to win in. No use trying to lose while they have cheap years from Abreu and Avi to burn and service clocks ticking on 3 of their 7 or so best prospects.

 

Depends on what year you're talking about. It would be insane to have all these guys come up and dominate right away.

Edited July 27, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Rowand44]

This is plain old untrue.

It's absolutely untrue but good luck getting him to admit that.

[southsider2k5]

It's absolutely untrue but good luck getting him to admit that.

 

What odds would you like on the Sox having a playoff team before 2020, and how much would you like to put down?

 

5:1?

[Rowand44]

What odds would you like on the Sox having a playoff team before 2020, and how much would you like to put down?

 

5:1?

I've said 8 billion times that I don't expect them to make the playoffs in 2019 and I think 2020 is the most realistic timeline. That said, there's going to be a boatload of talent on that 2019 team and some with at least some service time underneath their belts and to say they have absolutely 0 shot to make the playoffs is just wrong. It'd be a year ahead of time for sure but things like that happen too.

Edited July 27, 2017 by Rowand44

[southsider2k5]

I've said 8 billion times that I don't expect them to make the playoffs in 2019 and I think 2020 is the most realistic timeline. That said, there's going to be a boatload of talent on that 2019 team and some with at least some service time underneath their belts and to say they have absolutely 0 shot to make the playoffs is just wrong. It'd be a year ahead of time for sure but things like that happen too.

 

Most of the real talent will be making its major league debuts in 2019 and 2020. Giving them a couple of years is optimistic already.

[witesoxfan]

Sox could easily be a .500 team in 2018.

 

 

I also don't see the point in wasting Moncada, Lopez, and Giolito's service time just so they can save Jimenez's.

 

Oh my god no, the White Sox are probably going to set a franchise record for losses in a season. It's going to be Moncada and maybe Lopez on that roster. They are going to be absolutely horrendous. They might play .500 ball in September, but even that I doubt. Next year is going to be really ugly.

[Rowand44]

Most of the real talent will be making its major league debuts in 2019 and 2020. Giving them a couple of years is optimistic already.

There's plenty of "real talent" that are going to be making their debuts between now and the end of 2018. Our rotation is going to be stacked with "real talent" who debuted before 2019.

 

The offense is going to be slower paced but there's a chance that you at least go into that season with Moncada, Anderson, Abreu and Avi as a starting block and a s*** ton of money to spend.

 

Like I said, I'm not expecting 2019 to be the year but the pitching staff has a chance to be incredible so you just never know. Well you do I guess.

[Chisoxfn]

If you aren't able to win 90 games, you really aren't competing.

 

An 83 win team isn't competitive in my eyes. That is an average team.

 

Realistically we would need a ton to go right to be able to see even that .500ish team by 2019. Even the Cubs weren't above .500 until the fourth season after hitting bottom. That would put us at 2020 or even 2021 if next year is worse than this year. The Cubs not only burnt the ground down, but they were also going out and signing free agents during that span to start to build the roster. At this stage the White Sox are still burning down the house. 2018 is going to be a terrible team. IMO even with the prospects coming in, it is going to be closer to 2003 Tigers than .500. These kids will need time.

 

I get the prospect sheets look great now, but I think a lot of people are WAY too optimistic in their hopes for these kids as a whole, and have to realize that a lot of prospect flat out fail, and for every Kris Bryant that hits from his first day in the majors, there are a lot more guys like Avi Garcia and Kyle Shwarber who spend seasons struggling as well as guys like Tim Anderson whose development is up and down. Already this year we have seen steps back from guys like Giolito, Fulmer, Anderson, and Collins. This could be blips in the road, or it could be the tip of the iceberg for them. It is a statistical certainty that some will bust. Who and how many? Well that is the fun part.

The 83 win number takes context, if that number is 83 wins and we still have a top 5 farm system, guys emerging, and the arrow pointing up (even a late run), I'd call it contending vs. if you were talking about the Sox teams of the past few years, I'd totally agree. That said, I fully agree with everything you are saying...we are talking 3 years from now where maybe we have a shot at the wild card. Next year will be a disaster and the next year probably won't be much better (although we should see the arrow pointing up as enough of the top prospects have emerged and hopefully at least some of them are showing value and early returns).

[southsider2k5]

There's plenty of "real talent" that are going to be making their debuts between now and the end of 2018. Our rotation is going to be stacked with "real talent" who debuted before 2019.

 

The offense is going to be slower paced but there's a chance that you at least go into that season with Moncada, Anderson, Abreu and Avi as a starting block and a s*** ton of money to spend.

 

Like I said, I'm not expecting 2019 to be the year but the pitching staff has a chance to be incredible so you just never know. Well you do I guess.

 

There is not "plenty" of real talent that will be here early. There isn't even close to enough early talent to replace the talent we have lost over the last year, let alone enough to overcome the 10 extra games that this team was missing the playoffs by.

 

They will also not be spending s***ton of money until the team after the team is actually competitive.

 

I mean out of the four base players you listed for now, 3 of them have fairly significant questions marks associated with them. Abreu is literally the only guy in our line up that can be called anything close to a known quantity. Tim Anderson has regressed significantly. It is the personal problems off of the field, or did the league figure him out? Avi put up 3 incredible months so far, but is that really him? Moncada is another who could well be taking his lumps for a period of years. The rest of the roster early on is going to be guys that if everything goes right are 45's and 50's.

 

Past that?

 

The starting rotation is going to be weighted by Shields and a bunch of unknowns. The bullpen is going to be a horror movie hodgepodge of reclamations, the inexperienced, and rookies.

 

Literally everything has to go right for this team to be able to win 90 to 95 games in 2019. You are absolutely right that I don't see that happening. Looking at the rebuilds around baseball that have happened already, I don't see that as crazy.

[Balta1701]

They will also not be spending s***ton of money until the team after the team is actually competitive.

I do wonder if they won't be in the 2019 offseason FA pool just because of the names that are there, but we'll see.