Teams with BA #1/2 prospect rankings not to make playoffs within 5 yea

[caulfield12]

Moncada having a pretty rough first 50 MLB at bats isn't helping.

 

Probably a bit overwhelmed by Sox/Cubs environment. At least he's walked four times, hbp, two huge XB hits. He absolutely has to be an 875-925 ops hitter with at least average defense at second for this whole thing to work.

 

 

(Waits for Robin Ventura, Mike Trout comps as to their big league beginnings/foibles.)

Edited July 28, 2017 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

So, not even a full year into a rebuild we have caulfield basically calling it a failure. Sounds about right

 

Cubs got Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. After the Sox traded Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton, they still don't have anyone in their organization that is likely become a player as good as Rizzo

 

Rizzo failed hard in his first shot at the bigs. The Padres were absolute s*** and they sent him down because he couldn't play. He wasn't a star immediately

[Quin]

Cubs got Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. After the Sox traded Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton, they still don't have anyone in their organization that is likely become a player as good as Rizzo.

 

Theo didn't have a young, talented, controllable core like Sale, Quintana and Eaton to build around, so he had to tear down and rebuild and he did an extraordinary job. The Sox have traded away more value than Theo did and the jury is still out on the prospects they got in return. The Sox don't have a stellar record when it comes to developing talent. And what are the odds that whomever the Sox draft in 2018 turns out to be as good a player as Kris Bryant? Would JR be willing to bring in an experienced, highly rated manager?

 

I understand what the Sox are trying to do but by no means are they guaranteed to be as successful as the Cubs, Astros or Royals. Some seem to think that just because it worked for the Cubs it's a sure thing it will turn out as successful for the Sox. It could go either way.

 

It would be a shame if it turns out the Sox exchanged a young, inexpensive, controllable core of Sale, Quintana and Eaton for a decade or more of mediocrity. I would have felt better if the Sox were able to trade these guys for top rated prospects with ETAs of 2017 and 2018 and then augment them with good FA signings. Now we'll just have to bear with horrible baseball for a couple of years and wait to see if the Sox organization under Buddy Bell and Chris Getz can develop these A level prospects and hope Moncada doesn't turn out to be another Gordon Beckham.

 

Well, Moncada, Jimenez and Robert all have the ability to become as good or better than Rizzo. So...

[Dunt]

Moncada having a pretty rough first 50 MLB at bats isn't helping.

 

Probably a bit overwhelmed by Sox/Cubs environment. At least he's walked four times, hbp, two huge XB hits. He absolutely has to be an 875-925 ops hitter with at least average defense at second for this whole thing to work.

 

 

(Waits for Robin Ventura, Mike Trout comps as to their big league beginnings/foibles.)

 

He has a .118 BABIP, he will be fine

[BaconOnAStick]

Moncada k'ing 30-40% of the time.

Jimenez and Rutherford aren't out of this world hitters at corner outfield spots, making them 1.5-2.25 fWAR guys.

Kopech never finds his control or gets hurt.

Cease and Giolito already with one TJS. Most of the hurlers have concerns about durability, or pitchability, as starters.

Robert doesn't live up to his hype.

 

See article above...

 

Jimenez is literally the best pure hitter playing minor league baseball right now.

 

[Dunt]

Cubs got Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. After the Sox traded Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton, they still don't have anyone in their organization that is likely become a player as good as Rizzo.

 

Rizzo and Abreu's OPS are separated by 29 points

[SoxAce]

So, not even a full year into a rebuild we have caulfield basically calling it a failure. Sounds about right

 

Caulfield gonna caulfield.

[iWiN4PreP]

Caulfield isn't really doing anything wrong/negative. He posted a fangraph article that demonstrated the riskiness of the White Sox Farm system brilliantly. I suggest reading it before you guys gang up on his devils advocate opinion.

 

With that being said, the defence against the argument might be "all prospects are risky," and so, while the White Sox prospects are certainly risky, so are everybody elses.

 

Therefore, the negative tendency is likely best put to rest, otherwise we will eat our eyes out over the next two years with this. Better to be optimistic about the future.

[Eminor3rd]

Cubs got Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. After the Sox traded Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton, they still don't have anyone in their organization that is likely become a player as good as Rizzo.

 

Theo didn't have a young, talented, controllable core like Sale, Quintana and Eaton to build around, so he had to tear down and rebuild and he did an extraordinary job. The Sox have traded away more value than Theo did and the jury is still out on the prospects they got in return. The Sox don't have a stellar record when it comes to developing talent. And what are the odds that whomever the Sox draft in 2018 turns out to be as good a player as Kris Bryant? Would JR be willing to bring in an experienced, highly rated manager?

 

I understand what the Sox are trying to do but by no means are they guaranteed to be as successful as the Cubs, Astros or Royals. Some seem to think that just because it worked for the Cubs it's a sure thing it will turn out as successful for the Sox. It could go either way.

 

It would be a shame if it turns out the Sox exchanged a young, inexpensive, controllable core of Sale, Quintana and Eaton for a decade or more of mediocrity. I would have felt better if the Sox were able to trade these guys for top rated prospects with ETAs of 2017 and 2018 and then augment them with good FA signings. Now we'll just have to bear with horrible baseball for a couple of years and wait to see if the Sox organization under Buddy Bell and Chris Getz can develop these A level prospects and hope Moncada doesn't turn out to be another Gordon Beckham.

 

Yeah but Rizzo wasn't likely to become as good as Rizzo.

 

It's a numbers game. You stockpile elite talent -- most of it busts, some of it becomes superstar talent.

[Palehosefan]

But I don't think that's the case. Anyone who thinks it guarantees the Sox anything close to a WS is a fool.

 

This plan is WAY more risky than what the Sox have been doing the last decade. If this doesn't work, you can find yourself stuck in a cycle of bad for a really long time. Sox had a lot of assets and traded them for what seems like great value. If this fails, the assets like Sale Eaton and Q won't be around to help us start over. It's very scary.

 

But, most of us were sick of the same old 75 win team filled with veterans and couldn't get over the hump. Again, that's more on the front office than anyone, but with this, there is at least a plan in place for hopeful long term success, for multiple seasons. It's hope, not a guarantee.

 

That's the thing about the MLB draft, if you are the worst team in baseball, you will get first shot at what is likely elite talent in the draft. Assuming you don't Brien Taylor the pick, you will have the #1 pick in every round. You can easily re-stock your future with a couple of drafts.

 

That is assuming that you don't have terrible scouts and decision makers. That's a whole other argument though. You can always fix yourself from the draft, Latin America, and free agency, especially as a mid to major market type club. If you are a Pirates, Royals, Athletics type club, then you have to completely rely on making the right decisions each year with no room for error.

 

Even if the system completely flames out(which it won't), then you will be terrible and get shots at elite talent in the draft and Latin America, etc. I would MUCH rather see Hahn go MLB The Show type rebuild, instead of languishing around mediocrity for a decade.

[bmags]

For anyone that didn't see caulfields edit this is the article that spurred his brain to post this :

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...g-bets-on-risk/

 

It predicates on the fact that the white sox prospect rankings in MLB pipelien and BA exceed their KATOH+ stuff because it factors in things like minor league production.

 

But none of it says any of our prospects are actually garbage.

[Eminor3rd]

For anyone that didn't see caulfields edit this is the article that spurred his brain to post this :

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...g-bets-on-risk/

 

It predicates on the fact that the white sox prospect rankings in MLB pipelien and BA exceed their KATOH+ stuff because it factors in things like minor league production.

 

But none of it says any of our prospects are actually garbage.

 

Right, the gist of that article is that the White Sox have collected a bunch of guys who, generally speaking, haven't produced as well as expected for their level. Essentially, their hype is because of projection instead of production. So it seems like they are a riskier group than normal.

 

I think the player development question is a legitimate one. It does not seem like the Sox have been able to take a raw position player and turn him into a good, polished hitter in as long as I can remember.

[Dominikk85]

Regarding the cubs, epstein did great job but they also had some luck.

 

Almost all of theit top prospects panned out except for soler and even he netted them an elite closer in return. They had a non prospect hendricks who became very good, a mid level top100 prospect rizzo who became a superstar and a failed starter in arrieta who had a good arm and then also turned it around in his late 20s and became a superstar.

 

Cubs rebuild was done well but it also was like a 90th percentile outcome with almost anyone reaching close to their ceiling.

 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

But I don't think that's the case. Anyone who thinks it guarantees the Sox anything close to a WS is a fool.

 

This plan is WAY more risky than what the Sox have been doing the last decade. If this doesn't work, you can find yourself stuck in a cycle of bad for a really long time. Sox had a lot of assets and traded them for what seems like great value. If this fails, the assets like Sale Eaton and Q won't be around to help us start over. It's very scary.

But, most of us were sick of the same old 75 win team filled with veterans and couldn't get over the hump. Again, that's more on the front office than anyone, but with this, there is at least a plan in place for hopeful long term success, for multiple seasons. It's hope, not a guarantee.

I agree with all of your post. That's why I say I'm cautiously optimistic. I understand the risk, as do you which is exhibited in the bolded part of your quoted post.

 

 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Rizzo and Abreu's OPS are separated by 29 points

And their defense?

[Bob Sacamano]

I know it's not their fault at all, but it's not like the Sox did anything worthwhile when they had Eaton, Sale and Quintana on one team. Great pieces to have, but pointless if your owner/management weren't going to put the necessary pieces around them.

[bmags]

I know it's not their fault at all, but it's not like the Sox did anything worthwhile when they had Eaton, Sale and Quintana on one team. Great pieces to have, but pointless if your owner/management weren't going to put the necessary pieces around them.

 

And when you had a system that could not supply even utility players and bull pen arms without needing to buy them on the cheap (only to have them be way worse than replacement).

[South Side Fireworks Man]

So, not even a full year into a rebuild we have caulfield basically calling it a failure. Sounds about right

 

 

 

Rizzo failed hard in his first shot at the bigs. The Padres were absolute s*** and they sent him down because he couldn't play. He wasn't a star immediately

And he was acquired for much less than a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana, both on team friendly contracts.

[Chisoxfn]

Moncada k'ing 30-40% of the time.

Jimenez and Rutherford aren't out of this world hitters at corner outfield spots, making them 1.5-2.25 fWAR guys.

Kopech never finds his control or gets hurt.

Cease and Giolito already with one TJS. Most of the hurlers have concerns about durability, or pitchability, as starters.

Robert doesn't live up to his hype.

 

See article above...

Ok...I don't have any idea why that makes the Sox top farm system riskier then other teams top farm systems? I could go down the list with any organizations top prospects (including top 1/2) and do very similar assessments. Easy to do. No one knows. If anything, I would point out that the Sox are likely somewhat unique in how much of their farm system has been due to trades (vs. a true ability to draft and develop). So if you think of the Dodgers or Yankees, they built their farm systems from the ground up (largely).

[bmags]

Ok...I don't have any idea why that makes the Sox top farm system riskier then other teams top farm systems? I could go down the list with any organizations top prospects (including top 1/2) and do very similar assessments. Easy to do. No one knows. If anything, I would point out that the Sox are likely somewhat unique in how much of their farm system has been due to trades (vs. a true ability to draft and develop). So if you think of the Dodgers or Yankees, they built their farm systems from the ground up (largely).

 

That was gist of comments under article (paraphrased "Okay, but compared to what"?). He didn't really have that. Some prospects in top ten may be less risky than Moncada/Jimenez/Kopech...but do those systems have 3 of those dudes?

[Dominikk85]

The outlook for teams with a good farm is very good but the cubs were pretty much a best case outcome.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

The outlook for teams with a good farm is very good but the cubs were pretty much a best case outcome.

Yep.

[Bob Sacamano]

And he was acquired for much less than a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana, both on team friendly contracts.

 

Worth noting that Rizzo was sold very low. Struggled when he came up to the MLB, Padres traded Latos for a package of prospects/young players which included his replacement, Yonder Alonso. Cubs made some major adjustments to his swing and boom, Rizzo is the guy he is today.

Edited July 28, 2017 by soxfan2014

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I know it's not their fault at all, but it's not like the Sox did anything worthwhile when they had Eaton, Sale and Quintana on one team. Great pieces to have, but pointless if your owner/management weren't going to put the necessary pieces around them.

And that's where the problem arose. Now we just have to trust the same organization to rebuild. When these prospects hit the big league club, will they put the necessary pieces around them or will we be back to square one? Only time will tell.

[SonofaRoache]

The outlook for teams with a good farm is very good but the cubs were pretty much a best case outcome.

People also forget the Cubs signed the top free agent in back to back FA classes. They brought in good players in fowler, zorbrist, montero, lackey, and Chapman. They brought in a top of the line president who knows what he's doing in Theo and a manager who has a clue in Maddon.

Edited July 28, 2017 by SonofaRoache