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Ongoing storm disaster thread


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gahhh....I have some family down there that's feeling a bit uneasy. I'd hope people would be smart enough to bail early if you're going to bail instead of waiting. Hard to say what this one will be like compared to Harvey.

 

That being said...with all the attention given to Harvey (and rightfully so)...and this upcoming Irma...half of Montana has gone up in flames without much notoriety. Horrible what's happening up in that beautiful part of the country.

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The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Sep 6, 2017 -> 03:36 PM)
The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

 

wow

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QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 6, 2017 -> 01:41 PM)
Hoping for a miracle here. PR can't take devastation, and at least that the worst of the winds dissipate quickly as it hits land.

 

 

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Sep 6, 2017 -> 03:36 PM)
The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

 

Their Prime Minister said 0 in the last hour.

 

https://twitter.com/the_real_shull/status/905424749270007808

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QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Sep 6, 2017 -> 01:30 PM)
Any idea yet if Jose is supposed to make landfall and where?

As of right now, Jose is supposed to take a path north of where Irma is currently headed and peak at intensity of at least Category 3 somewhere near Bermuda, making it also a major hurricane. However, after that the potential paths are all over the place - it could continue towards the coast, swing farther south, or turn away from the US, all are within range.

 

Basically that needs several days of development before we're anywhere close to knowing about landfall.

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So, the summary today:

 

-Irma has sustained 185+ mph winds for >24 hours. First ever Atlantic storm to do that.

-Puerto Rico appears to be able to avoid a direct eyewall impact, but because they have been forced into dramatic maintenance cutbacks by their debt relief agreement with the U.S. Government their systems were already in bad shape and there is talk that it could take months just to get the electricity back on from this sideswipe.

-Be cautious about sharing photos of devastated areas, we saw a whole bunch of that with Harvey and many of them were frauds, tornado shots, photoshopped, etc.

-There is now almost certainly going to be a US landfall of Irma as a major (3+) hurricane.

-If Irma steers slightly west it makes landfall in Miami and weakens as it moves up the peninsula.

-If Irma steers slighly east Miami breathes a sigh of relief and gets the same bypass that Puerto Rico got. Irma drenches Florida but most of the winds miss, and the storm makes landfall as a Major Hurricane somewhere near Georgia or South Carolina.

-The worst case scenario is right in the middle of the cone and close to what the European Model is putting out right now. That scenario is a landfall of the eye at Miami, hitting a major urban area as a category 5 storm. That would then be followed by the storm heading north hugging the coast, and like Harvey it could maintain strength by keeping part of the storm's core over unusually warm Atlantic waters as it goes. This basically produces a Category 3+ storm landfall up the entire eastern coast of Florida and Georgia until full landfall is made. 20 miles east or west avoids this scenario, but if it happens then Irma is easily the most expensive natural disaster in US history - including ones that happened in the last week.

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I'm heartbroken about this. I've spent a lot of time in the BVIs and the USVIs, and Virgin Gorda is one of my favorite places on earth. There's been no communication from the island for over 12 hours now. I'm pretty sure I'll hardly recognize it when connection is finally made.

 

This, Houston, the entire Pacific Northwest (specifically the Columbia River Gorge)..... It's just unreal.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Sep 7, 2017 -> 03:30 AM)
Good Lord

 

g7PSsKo.gif

That would be devastating.

 

I had always figured when I retired I would spend my summers and most of the fall in Chicago, and buy a condo in south FL for the winter. Now, maybe I'll rent or go to AZ in the winter. Even though I wouldn't be there for hurricane season, I don't want to own anything in any hurricane alley.

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