Kopech will have a chance to win a rotation spot next spring

[ChiSoxJon]

Michael Kopech will not break camp with the White Sox in 2018. No chance. I do think we see him pretty quickly though.

Agreed. A midseason call-up seems probable (June-July). Maybe Shields hits the DL or the cheap vet starter we sign sucks.

[Bob Sacamano]

Agreed. A midseason call-up seems probable (June-July). Maybe Shields hits the DL or the cheap vet starter we sign sucks.

 

Shields I imagine being on a short leash and cut as soon as someone else is ready for a promotion. Especially if they see no way he can be traded.

[steveno89]

Nice point man. I like that you've outlined how it's not always as cut & dry as "gain extra year=smart" and "not gain extra year=dumb".

 

The respect gained by letting him break camp if he's earned it could pay out tenfold in the long run (likeliness of extension due to goodwill increases dramatically) compared to the extra year of time.

 

I still would be shocked if Kopech broke spring training with the mlb club and essentially skipped AAA. He still needs to work on control and limiting free passes, especially against more experienced AAA hitters.

[Bob Sacamano]

I still would be shocked if Kopech broke spring training with the mlb club and essentially skipped AAA. He still needs to work on control and limiting free passes, especially against more experienced AAA hitters.

 

Yeah I don't see him being on the Opening Day roster and I don't see him being up right after the Sox get the extra year of control. I think July at earliest.

[ChiSoxJon]

Shields I imagine being on a short leash and cut as soon as someone else is ready for a promotion. Especially if they see no way he can be traded.

Makes sense although I don't mind his as a mentor

[ron883]

Any way they time it so these guys so they won't hit their innings limit right before the playoffs?

 

I'm not saying they'll make the playoffs, but the AL central is pretty bad outside of the Indians. You never know what can happen. Eloy and Kopech will be force their way up no doubt.

[he gone.]

Makes sense although I don't mind his as a mentor

 

I think its a possibility that it mirrors the John Danks situation, however I think it's more of a possibility that the Sox keep him as a mentor and long relief arm out of the bullpen. The Danks situation was odd because we started 23-10 and we didn't have the room to keep an arm like his on the roster.

 

Next year, unless we start hot? Is probably another year where management sees it as a growth year for the young guys and a season where competing isn't as important as learning, developing, mentoring, losing* for a decent pick. ]

 

 

Also worth mentioning - he may be better suited for a role out of the bullpen.

 

Pitches 1-30 Shields has 42 ko/18bb

Pitches 30-60 he has 28k/25bb

 

That being said the power numbers, the runs , etc. etc. are all about the same...

Either way, he's dead as a starter, might as well try him in a different role next year if we don't have the space. Also I'd rather see the likes of Adams, Guerrero, etc. -- basically any young guy over Shields.

[ptatc]

Not waiting two weeks to ensure an extra year of control would be a fireable offense IMO. I can't believe there are people on this site who would be ok with. Completely mind-boggling.

Not if it makes him mad enough to absolutely refuse to sign an extension or negotiate a free agent deal with the team.

 

Knowing the Sox are only doing it to decrease his earning potential may not sit well with him.

 

It's good for the short term but maybe bad business in the long term.

[BaconOnAStick]

Never mind that he gives them a much better chance to win games than Covey. If he earns it they should let him up, this isn't Rodon. There is no Boras lurking. If he performs the Sox should be very aggressive in extending him.

[Bob Sacamano]

Not if it makes him mad enough to absolutely refuse to sign an extension or negotiate a free agent deal with the team.

 

Knowing the Sox are only doing it to decrease his earning potential may not sit well with him.

 

It's good for the short term but maybe bad business in the long term.

 

The good news is this likely won't be the case as I don't think he's up until at least June/July. There's good reasons they can decide to let him start the year at triple-A for a while.

[OmarComing25]

The good news is this likely won't be the case as I don't think he's up until at least June/July. There's good reasons they can decide to let him start the year at triple-A for a while.

Yeah this isn't a Kris Bryant case where he clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors.

[Jerksticks]

Not waiting two weeks to ensure an extra year of control would be a fireable offense IMO. I can't believe there are people on this site who would be ok with. Completely mind-boggling.

But everyone gets that point of view- that's not even something one can make a stance on or even argue- like water is wet. It's looking at the human side and the long term that makes it interesting to talk about.

 

Forgive me if you were being funny.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Never mind that he gives them a much better chance to win games than Covey. If he earns it they should let him up, this isn't Rodon. There is no Boras lurking. If he performs the Sox should be very aggressive in extending him.

 

It takes two to tango and Kopech doesn't seem like a guy who is lacking in confidence in himself. Those guys tend to not be the ones worried about early money. They are looking to hit the powerball.

[jenksycat]

It takes two to tango and Kopech doesn't seem like a guy who is lacking in confidence in himself. Those guys tend to not be the ones worried about early money. They are looking to hit the powerball.

 

In the Sale extension - which I'd assume is the prime example of this - all he really gave up was 2 arb years & 1 "cheap" FA year (13.5m when he could have been FA making 20+) and in return guaranteed himself 30+ million as a 24 year old vs. risking it he could have probably made ~20m more. To me those deals still seem like no brainers to for both sides.

[Jerksticks]

In the Sale extension - which I'd assume is the prime example of this - all he really gave up was 2 arb years & 1 "cheap" FA year (13.5m when he could have been FA making 20+) and in return guaranteed himself 30+ million as a 24 year old vs. risking it he could have probably made ~20m more. To me those deals still seem like no brainers to for both sides.

Totally. As a young guy why is risking everything over $10-20 million a smart thing to do? Those deals do seem like no brainers.

 

So you get to free agency a year later. If you're as good as you think you are, you're still going to get that $100-200M contract, just a year later. Sure maybe you lose a year on it or something, but to me that far outweighs the risk of flaming out with only a couple million.

[Balta1701]

In the Sale extension - which I'd assume is the prime example of this - all he really gave up was 2 arb years & 1 "cheap" FA year (13.5m when he could have been FA making 20+) and in return guaranteed himself 30+ million as a 24 year old vs. risking it he could have probably made ~20m more. To me those deals still seem like no brainers to for both sides.

I don't believe this is correct. Sale has over 6 years of service time as of right now, so if I understand this, 6 years = Free Agent. He came up in 2010 at the end of the year, and was on the big league team for 2011-2017, so 6+ full seasons of service time.

 

He's still under team control for 2 years with options now, so if I'm counting this right the White Sox bought out 2 years of FA for him, not 1. Please someone tell me if I've done the math wrong.

[jenksycat]

I don't believe this is correct. Sale has over 6 years of service time as of right now, so if I understand this, 6 years = Free Agent. He came up in 2010 at the end of the year, and was on the big league team for 2011-2017, so 6+ full seasons of service time.

 

He's still under team control for 2 years with options now, so if I'm counting this right the White Sox bought out 2 years of FA for him, not 1. Please someone tell me if I've done the math wrong.

 

Ah yeah maybe. I used the link below and the way they phrased it seems like it was only 1 FA year...they did not count the 2 team option years as anything. In that case, yes he did leave a good chunk of money on the table. But I'd still argue 57m earned and a FA at 29 is still a good deal to make. He probably left about 40m on the table during for the length of that deal ultimately.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/42407922/whi...year-extension/

[Chicago White Sox]

Never mind that he gives them a much better chance to win games than Covey. If he earns it they should let him up, this isn't Rodon. There is no Boras lurking. If he performs the Sox should be very aggressive in extending him.

For two f***ing starts in a meaningless season. I guess you don't care about the 32 starts six years from now when we should (hopefully) have a World Series caliber roster in place. This is literally one of the dumbest ideas I have ever seen and the idea we can just assume he'll be open to an extension because Boras isn't his agent is absurd. Look at the amount of pre arb extensions in recent years. There really haven't been that many of them and the number is trending down.

 

Under no circumstance do you pass up a guaranteed extra year of control. It's really that simple.

[ron883]

No doubt Brooks Boyer is lobbying to have him up opening day, but I doubt Hahn budges. Kopech will not be up the first few weeks.

[Balta1701]

Ah yeah maybe. I used the link below and the way they phrased it seems like it was only 1 FA year...they did not count the 2 team option years as anything. In that case, yes he did leave a good chunk of money on the table. But I'd still argue 57m earned and a FA at 29 is still a good deal to make. He probably left about 40m on the table during for the length of that deal ultimately.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/42407922/whi...year-extension/

Although he's making $15 million less a year in 2018 and 2019 than he otherwise would have, it's worth noting that salaries are rising so fast that he'll make a portion of that up by that effect if he can stay healthy through those years.

[Jerksticks]

For two f***ing starts in a meaningless season. I guess you don't care about the 32 starts six years from now when we should (hopefully) have a World Series caliber roster in place. This is literally one of the dumbest ideas I have ever seen and the idea we can just assume he'll be open to an extension because Boras isn't his agent is absurd. Look at the amount of pre arb extensions in recent years. There really haven't been that many of them and the number is trending down.

 

Under no circumstance do you pass up a guaranteed extra year of control. It's really that simple.

Everyone gets that man. We all agree. Everyone. I bet that's what the Sox do, in fact, pretty much everyone thinks that's what the Sox will do. That's the really SAFE bet at this point. No balls or smarts required to bet on that outcome.

 

 

You claimed it was a "fireable offense" to have him break camp. I think it's ok, fun, & smart to try to come up with scenarios where that is a justified move. For the reasons people have listed above, there are ways where it makes sense.

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Totally. As a young guy why is risking everything over $10-20 million a smart thing to do? Those deals do seem like no brainers.

 

So you get to free agency a year later. If you're as good as you think you are, you're still going to get that $100-200M contract, just a year later. Sure maybe you lose a year on it or something, but to me that far outweighs the risk of flaming out with only a couple million.

 

Those free agent years for Sale are probably worth more like $30 to $35 million a year. We could be talking about $40-45 million on the open market, not to mention dude is probably looking at something like 7/8 years at $30 to $35 per year. Putting that off for two more years also introduces two more years that his shoulder or elbow could blow out.

[Chicago White Sox]

Everyone gets that man. We all agree. Everyone. I bet that's what the Sox do, in fact, pretty much everyone thinks that's what the Sox will do. That's the really SAFE bet at this point. No balls or smarts required to bet on that outcome.

 

 

You claimed it was a "fireable offense" to have him break camp. I think it's ok, fun, & smart to try to come up with scenarios where that is a justified move. For the reasons people have listed above, there are ways where it makes sense.

No, not everyone gets this. The person I continue to reply to definitely does not get this. He's so impatient that he'd sacrafice a full year of control during our window for two measly starts in a lost season.