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Yurchak v. Schnurbusch


bmags

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I think everyone knows where this is going, but I thought I'd put it down in writing. Some of us may be a little apprehensive to hop on the Yurchak Yacht after seeing our ole flame Schnurbusch become forgotten as he moved into full-season ball.

 

But it is funny how similar they are.

Schnurbusch 2016 (22 yo)

.357/.471/.542/1.013 OPS in 291 PAs

Yurchak 2017 (20 yo)

.366/.471/.554/1.025 OPS in 228 PAs

 

Schnurbusch was really good! But the big differences:

Schnurbusch was 1.5 years old for Great falls, Yurchak is young for his level.

Schnurbusch had a 23.7% K rate in GF, Yurchak has only an 11% k rate.

Now, as you could tell from their identical OBP, they both featured nice 16-17% walk rates.

 

We kinda sorta know the end to the Schnurbusch story, he has not gotten better as the season has gone along. But the difference in pedigree (in terms of college program), age, and k-rate make him a much, much more interesting 10+ round draft pick lighting world on fire in Great Falls story.

 

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 31, 2017 -> 10:23 AM)
I think everyone knows where this is going, but I thought I'd put it down in writing. Some of us may be a little apprehensive to hop on the Yurchak Yacht after seeing our ole flame Schnurbusch become forgotten as he moved into full-season ball.

 

But it is funny how similar they are.

Schnurbusch 2016 (22 yo)

.357/.471/.542/1.013 OPS in 291 PAs

Yurchak 2017 (20 yo)

.366/.471/.554/1.025 OPS in 228 PAs

 

Schnurbusch was really good! But the big differences:

Schnurbusch was 1.5 years old for Great falls, Yurchak is young for his level.

Schnurbusch had a 23.7% K rate in GF, Yurchak has only an 11% k rate.

Now, as you could tell from their identical OBP, they both featured nice 16-17% walk rates.

 

We kinda sorta know the end to the Schnurbusch story, he has not gotten better as the season has gone along. But the difference in pedigree (in terms of college program), age, and k-rate make him a much, much more interesting 10+ round draft pick lighting world on fire in Great Falls story.

 

This is why I basically ignore any college player's Rookie-level stats. While a bad performance probably indicates no future, a great (even amazing) performance should be viewed with extreme skepticism. The Sox have had plenty of Rookie-league studs over the years, who ended up amounting to nothing. Yurchak definitely have a nice skill set, but I will not think of him as a legitimate prospect unless he continues to perform in full season ball.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 31, 2017 -> 12:54 PM)
How were his numbers as a freshman at Wake Forrest though?

.313/.424/.456 with 30 walks and 22 strikeouts in 192 plate appearances. Schnurbusch failed to hit even .280 in two years at Pittsburgh when he was two years older.

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This is a really good thread. I pretty share bmag's sentiment on not just Yurchak but all mid to late round picks. Just going with the wait and see approach. College hitters should take in rookie ball so I am curious to see how Yurchak and others perform when moved to A ball next year.

 

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I'm actually pro-Yurchak, I just thought it was crazy how similar the slashline was.

 

I really like that Yurchak is showing power without K'ing a lot. Feels like he can, if he wants, shift to a more power approach without his K's becoming too big of a problem.

 

But even if his k rate was the same, his age alone is a +++ over Schnurbusch. As a senior pick, he had no room for error if he was legit. No years lost to injury, no adjustments to league. If Yurchak misses 3 months next year the ride isn't over.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 31, 2017 -> 01:06 PM)
Oh I know what they were and I know you do too (Dan and I both went to war for Yurchak during the FS midseason prospect rankings). My point was this guy has hit every chance he has. He has hit in a way that seems sustainable moving up.

 

2015 Wake Forest Freshmen

 

Gavin Sheets: .250/.319/.336 with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.

Justin Yurchak: .313/.424/.456 with 30 walks and 22 strikeouts in 192 plate appearances.

It's worth pointing out for those who have never followed college baseball just how good those freshman year numbers are from Yurchak. It's really rare for a freshman to step in the ACC and produce like that, especially with that kind of plate discipline. A lot of guys take half a year or a year to truly hit their stride. Some good players don't end up even playing much. Sheets is a great example of that.

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