Avi Hot streak

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Avi 37 for his last 83 which rounds up to a .446 average, Nice to see him hit the HR today and triple whenever it was a couple games ago. He appears to be going to right and center field most of the time now, Not sure if that means the trying to pull more experiment is over but sure can't argue with the results. I believe at one point his average dropped to under .305 so to bounce it back to .327 really takes a prolonged streak when you have so many AB's already. Today's game is a perfect example of that. Avi goes 3 for 4 and his BA only rises .004 points.

 

The " any doubters left" question is purely rhetorical since I know I will see things like outlier, BABIP, and lets see if he can repeat it next year. Of course I'd like your thoughts any way .

[Two-Gun Pete]

You're exactly right.

 

His BABIP strongly suggests that these numbers are purely artificial and/or unsustainable. Meanwhile, he is getting closer to the end of his controllable years for this club, meaning he'd have to be extended at some point in the near future to stay here.

 

Therefore, Hahn should sell high on Avi this offseason, even if you believe in these numbers. (I don't.)

[greg775]

Avi 37 for his last 83 which rounds up to a .446 average, Nice to see him hit the HR today and triple whenever it was a couple games ago. He appears to be going to right and center field most of the time now, Not sure if that means the trying to pull more experiment is over but sure can't argue with the results. I believe at one point his average dropped to under .305 so to bounce it back to .327 really takes a prolonged streak when you have so many AB's already. Today's game is a perfect example of that. Avi goes 3 for 4 and his BA only rises .004 points.

 

The " any doubters left" question is purely rhetorical since I know I will see things like outlier, BABIP, and lets see if he can repeat it next year. Of course I'd like your thoughts any way .

I worship Avi Garcia. I finally looked at the standings today. Very sad my team is almost 30 games below .500. Amazing. But back to Avi. Love everything he stands for. What a season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

You're exactly right.

 

His BABIP strongly suggests that these numbers are purely artificial and/or unsustainable. Meanwhile, he is getting closer to the end of his controllable years for this club, meaning he'd have to be extended at some point in the near future to stay here.

 

Therefore, Hahn should sell high on Avi this offseason, even if you believe in these numbers. (I don't.)

Don't really agree with the strictly artificial. If it was so easy a lot more guys would be hitting .320 but hardly any do among the so many talented ball players in MLB. Is Avi the only one being so lucky or is it a product of hard work and making adjustments to his approach .

[iWiN4PreP]

Avi won me over. I went into the season wondering why he was still on the team, but he has clearly worked incredibly hard and has become one of the best hitters in the AL.

 

Unfortunately, with his service window that means the best route is likely to trade him for a great return.

[Lemon_44]

Avi won me over. I went into the season wondering why he was still on the team, but he has clearly worked incredibly hard and has become one of the best hitters in the AL.

 

Unfortunately, with his service window that means the best route is likely to trade him for a great return.

I can see your strategy but don't buy that thinking at all. What is he 25/26? Extend him and build around him. He's not going to be too old when the Sox are ready to contend again. Unless the Sox aren't planning on winning within the next 7 years or so. Which I doubt. To me, he's the exact guy you extend.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Don't really agree with the strictly artificial. If it was so easy a lot more guys would be hitting .320 but hardly any do among the so many talented ball players in MLB. Is Avi the only one being so lucky or is it a product of hard work and making adjustments to his approach .

Two things:

 

1. They were talking on the broadcast about how Avi has one of the highest BABIPs in Sox history, & also, the highest in the league. Therefore, there is (at a bare minimum) a massive degree of regression ahead of him.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

2. Do you believe in this one lucky season of his, or the mediocre pieces of 3+ seasons in which he was a poor player?

 

I maintain that Hahn should sell high on him. There is no way that he will continue this level of performance. Extending him is this FO just begging to be made into a fool once again.

[BaconOnAStick]

Do people really still believe that every play not resulting in a HR, walk or strikeout is dumb luck? Yikes. I also wouldn't call it unheard of for a player to struggle their first few seasons then improve.

 

I think they should trade him too, but not for those reasons. I think he's definitely turned some sort of corner at the plate.

[OmarComing25]

Two things:

 

1. They were talking on the broadcast about how Avi has one of the highest BABIPs in Sox history, & also, the highest in the league. Therefore, there is (at a bare minimum) a massive degree of regression ahead of him.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

2. Do you believe in this one lucky season of his, or the mediocre pieces of 3+ seasons in which he was a poor player?

 

I maintain that Hahn should sell high on him. There is no way that he will continue this level of performance. Extending him is this FO just begging to be made into a fool once again.

Avi does have a career BABIP of .340 though, he's a high BABIP hitter. Heck ZIPS forecasts him as a .353 BABIP hitter going forward, so even with a 40 point drop he can still be a useful player. If the FO thinks he can be a league average player an extension isn't such a bad idea, though I would wait to see how he does next season. Given the market we've seen recently for corner outfielders I don't think we'd get much in a trade but if someone offers something decent then yes I would definitely pull the trigger.

[SCCWS]

Two things:

 

1. They were talking on the broadcast about how Avi has one of the highest BABIPs in Sox history, & also, the highest in the league. Therefore, there is (at a bare minimum) a massive degree of regression ahead of him.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

2. Do you believe in this one lucky season of his, or the mediocre pieces of 3+ seasons in which he was a poor player?

 

I maintain that Hahn should sell high on him. There is no way that he will continue this level of performance. Extending him is this FO just begging to be made into a fool once again.

 

So Avi is due for a massive degree of regression, he had one lucky season but Hahn should sell high on him??? Please keep this quiet because we don't want any other teams finding out they are going to get fleeced.

 

[Soha]

You're exactly right.

 

His BABIP strongly suggests that these numbers are purely artificial and/or unsustainable. Meanwhile, he is getting closer to the end of his controllable years for this club, meaning he'd have to be extended at some point in the near future to stay here.

 

Therefore, Hahn should sell high on Avi this offseason, even if you believe in these numbers. (I don't.)

 

Weren't we being told in May that his BABIP was unsustainably high and that he could never pull it off for a whole season? Well he did. If anything, his numbers might be unlucky low because of the drop from the time he tried playing through the injury.

 

Count me in as one who would like the Sox to explore a contract extension with him.

[iamshack]

I want to see him start lifting the ball a bit more...imagine the damage he could do with his exit velocities if he got the ball if he increased his launch angle.

 

 

[Hatchetman]

I want to see him start lifting the ball a bit more...imagine the damage he could do with his exit velocities if he got the ball if he increased his launch angle.

 

I don't want him to change anything. He's finally doing something that works.

[southsider2k5]

Two things:

 

1. They were talking on the broadcast about how Avi has one of the highest BABIPs in Sox history, & also, the highest in the league. Therefore, there is (at a bare minimum) a massive degree of regression ahead of him.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

2. Do you believe in this one lucky season of his, or the mediocre pieces of 3+ seasons in which he was a poor player?

 

I maintain that Hahn should sell high on him. There is no way that he will continue this level of performance. Extending him is this FO just begging to be made into a fool once again.

 

The problem is that he has this level of talent in him. This is the player that everyone saw in him as his blew through the minors and into the playoffs with Detroit as a rookie. The problem was always that he had to make adjustments to the game.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Avi batted ball stats between 2016 & 2017

 

2016 LD%/GB%/FB%: 21.7/55.0/23.3 Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%: 36.7%/37.0%/26.3% Soft%/Med%/Hard%: 18.3%/47.3%/34.3% BABIP: .309

2017 LD%/GB%/FB%: 21.5/52.0/26.5 Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%: 43.7%/32.6%/23.7% Soft%/Med%/Hard%: 16.0%/49.2%/34.8% BABIP: .395

 

The glaring change in his game seems to be slightly less GB% and increased in FB%, pulling the ball more instead of going up the middle or opposite field, and hitting the ball slightly harder than before. The biggest change obviously is going for a slightly unlucky BABIP to a league leading BABIP.

 

I am in the camp of selling high on Avi, in case that some teams may think he's capable of a couple more all star caliber seasons. If you don't get a solid offer, I am not opposed to keeping him either, I think he's a capable hitter and seems to be passable in RF this year. I think long term projection hitting-wise is what Melky gave us the past two years, except as a right fielder.

[southsider2k5]

So based on your premise.......why would a team give the Sox ANY sort of value for Avi Garcia?

 

This is practically a meme on Soxtalk.

 

This guy sucks. The Sox should trade him for a lot.

[Lip Man 1]

I still have my doubts on him and apparently so does Hahn who a few weeks ago left open the possibility of Avi not being around when the team is good.

[southsider2k5]

I still have my doubts on him and apparently so does Hahn who a few weeks ago left open the possibility of Avi not being around when the team is good.

 

Hahn talking about dealing doesn't mean he has doubts about him. Did he have doubts about Chris Sale and Jose Quitana as well? What Hahn said is perfectly consistent with the philosophy that no man is untouchable. If he gets his price for Avi, he'd be gone. That is no different than anyone else on this team.

[Two-Gun Pete]

So Avi is due for a massive degree of regression, he had one lucky season but Hahn should sell high on him??? Please keep this quiet because we don't want any other teams finding out they are going to get fleeced.

 

 

So based on your premise.......why would a team give the Sox ANY sort of value for Avi Garcia?

Here's a true story for both of you:

 

Once upon a time, an MLB GM actually traded Fernando Tatis Jr for the desiccated remains of James Shields. James Shields went on to be among the worst SPs in the game, while Fernando Tatis Jr looks like he might be one of the best prospects in the game.

 

The moral of the story?

 

All it takes is one imbecile to buy in. And, there's a sucker born every minute.

[greg775]

So based on your premise.......why would a team give the Sox ANY sort of value for Avi Garcia?

Exactly. Why would anybody want Avi Garcia? We're stuck with him obviously according to that premise (green on the word stuck). But other teams know your stats. Avi will bring nothing in trade value if we go according to that initial premise of him being lucky.

Edited September 3, 2017 by greg775

[Two-Gun Pete]

This is practically a meme on Soxtalk.

 

This guy sucks. The Sox should trade him for a lot.

And yet, Shields-for-Tatis happened. All it takes is one imbecile to buy in.

[Soha]

Hahn talking about dealing doesn't mean he has doubts about him. Did he have doubts about Chris Sale and Jose Quitana as well? What Hahn said is perfectly consistent with the philosophy that no man is untouchable. If he gets his price for Avi, he'd be gone. That is no different than anyone else on this team.

 

Just my take. But when I saw Hahn speak about Avi a few weeks back, my impression was that Avi's days are somewhat numbered here. He seemed to emphasize on the 'but' part of the discussion. 'He's done great this year, but...'I came out of watching that interview a tad disappointed.

[greg775]

Don't really agree with the strictly artificial. If it was so easy a lot more guys would be hitting .320 but hardly any do among the so many talented ball players in MLB. Is Avi the only one being so lucky or is it a product of hard work and making adjustments to his approach .

He's the only lucky one obviously. Before I get in trouble, is it safe to say Avi has become a Sox talk whipping boy like Garland, Floyd and the others? Or are there enough Avi lovers that that's not the case yet? I'm starting to think he's another whipping boy and we best be rid of him to avoid all the ensuing arguments.

Edited September 3, 2017 by greg775

[Two-Gun Pete]

Weren't we being told in May that his BABIP was unsustainably high and that he could never pull it off for a whole season? Well he did. If anything, his numbers might be unlucky low because of the drop from the time he tried playing through the injury.

 

Count me in as one who would like the Sox to explore a contract extension with him.

 

That's the thing about luck, & why it's a bad idea to rely upon it for strategic planning. One never knows when it will run out. Consider:

 

Some players parlay an artificially good 2016 into a contract extension. Right, Tim Anderson?

 

Others start out with unsustainable BABIPS to start 2017, only to wilter out as the season progresses. Right, Leury Garcia? Right, Micker Adolfo?

 

In other words, BABIP luck can last an entire season, or it can only last a few weeks. Who knows?

 

When you look at the overall body of work on a player, the overwhelming majority of them are what their track records say they are. VERY RARELY do career mediocrities end up becoming Rod Carew, or Tony Gwynn, or Wade Boggs, as Avi looks like this season. While you're certainly free to believe in Avi, I reserve my right to doubt him. YMMV.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

Avi does have a career BABIP of .340 though, he's a high BABIP hitter. Heck ZIPS forecasts him as a .353 BABIP hitter going forward, so even with a 40 point drop he can still be a useful player.

Here's the thing:

 

If Avi is a ~3.0 WAR player with a .395-ish BABIP, what is he if/when his BABIP regresses 49 points? Perhaps a 2.0 WAR player?

 

For me, there's too much downside risk to count on him sustaining his BABIP going forward. As such, I wouldn't want to count on him, or else this FO may give a contract expecting more than he's likely to provide.

 

That said, while I prefer to sell high on Avi, I fully expect this FO to extend him.