Avi Hot streak

[elrockinMT]

He's the only lucky one obviously. Before I get in trouble, is it safe to say Avi has become a Sox talk whipping boy like Garland, Floyd and the others? Or are there enough Avi lovers that that's not the case yet? I'm starting to think he's another whipping boy and we best be rid of him to avoid all the ensuing arguments.

There are those fake fans that tend to target a player and dump on him constantly. Avi Garcia kind of fit that role from time to time. I think Avi has developed into a very good player and still can get better. We need players like him and Abreu to anchor the team as veterans

Edited September 3, 2017 by elrockinMT

[tray]

Avi lost a lot of weight , improved his diet and conditioning and got faster. That is not an outlier in his career, it is a sustainable physical improvement. Avi still reaches for pitches and whiffs on high fastballs like many hitters do, but he has cut down on that. That is what it takes to hit over .300.

 

As far as trading him or any player, it depends on what the return might be, so which team would offer what for him? Am I sensing that the Sox should "sell high" on him while some fans question his season as an "outlier?" Now that sounds like a strategy anticipating failure.

 

The Shields trade was a disaster, but at the same time, never forget, at the beginning of the season some here thought it was a joke to suggest that Avi would be better than Kyle Schwarber, a .200 hitter. While Avi looks svelte now and is one of the faster players on the team, Schwarber is the cubs version of Viciedo, the cubs' "Tank."

 

The Sox have a potentially decent outfield in 2018 anchored by Eloy in LF and Avi in RF. There are several prospects who could challenge for CF and in the meantime, Leury Garcia is a sufficient placeholder and a valuable utility inf/outfielder.

It's all looking up now. If I was Hahn I would tend to shy away from making any trades (unless obviously, something comes up that he cannot refuse) and focus on developing the talent that we have. Things will tend to iron themselves out when we see how good some of the prospects we have are or aren't.

Spring Training should be a gas.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Here's a true story for both of you:

 

Once upon a time, an MLB GM actually traded Fernando Tatis Jr for the desiccated remains of James Shields. James Shields went on to be among the worst SPs in the game, while Fernando Tatis Jr looks like he might be one of the best prospects in the game.

 

The moral of the story?

 

All it takes is one imbecile to buy in. And, there's a sucker born every minute.

Not a great example since Tatis Jr. has done nothing at the MLB level yet.Feel free to use that priceless little story in 5-10 years though once Tatis has an All Star game or 2 in him.

[OmarComing25]

Here's the thing:

 

If Avi is a ~3.0 WAR player with a .395-ish BABIP, what is he if/when his BABIP regresses 49 points? Perhaps a 2.0 WAR player?

 

For me, there's too much downside risk to count on him sustaining his BABIP going forward. As such, I wouldn't want to count on him, or else this FO may give a contract expecting more than he's likely to provide.

 

That said, while I prefer to sell high on Avi, I fully expect this FO to extend him.

I'd be perfectly happy if Avi is a 2.0 WAR player going forward though. We need some of those, if we had 3-4 of those types during the last few years over some of the replacement level players (or worse) we threw out there we might have actually made the playoffs. Those guys are still pretty valuable.

[Lillian]

The value of the BABIP stat is a little suspect. What is more significant is how the hitter is consistently "barreling up" the ball. If he is hitting lot's of line drives, rather than soft grounders and pop ups, his average simply reflects that. By contrast, if a hitter makes a lot of weak contact, it probably isn't simply bad luck that is causing his poor results.

 

It appears that Avi is not trying to hit homers, and is not using an upper cut swing. His hits consistently have high exit velocity. If he continues that approach, it may not be unreasonable to expect him to have continued success. On the other hand, if he is to become more of a power hitter, he may have to alter his approach, which will significantly reduce his BABIP, and average.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The value of the BABIP stat is a little suspect. What is more significant is how the hitter is consistently "barreling up" the ball. If he is hitting lot's of line drives, rather than soft grounders and pop ups, his average simply reflects that. By contrast, if a hitter makes a lot of weak contact, it probably isn't simply bad luck that is causing his poor results.

 

It appears that Avi is not trying to hit homers, and is not using an upper cut swing. His hits consistently have high exit velocity. If he continues that approach, it may not be unreasonable to expect him to have continued success. On the other hand, if he is to become more of a power hitter, he may have to alter his approach, which will significantly reduce his BABIP, and average.

 

If you look at the numbers I posted earlier, he isn't hitting the ball significantly harder or hitting more line drives, yet his BABIP has increased signicantly, at a very unsustainable rate. He's bound to regress to somewhere around 1-2 WAR next year.

[Lillian]

If you look at the numbers I posted earlier, he isn't hitting the ball significantly harder or hitting more line drives, yet his BABIP has increased signicantly, at a very unsustainable rate. He's bound to regress to somewhere around 1-2 WAR next year.

 

Ok, however you don't see him beating out a lot of weak infield hits, or hitting Texas Leaguers.

[BlackSox13]

What's the rush in determining Avi's future? He's raised his value no doubt but not enough to ask for an over-pay in a trade or offer an extension to. I'd like to see what he how he's playing when the ASB comes around next year.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't really agree with the strictly artificial. If it was so easy a lot more guys would be hitting .320 but hardly any do among the so many talented ball players in MLB. Is Avi the only one being so lucky or is it a product of hard work and making adjustments to his approach .

 

I'm sure he's hitting the ball harder, and that's good. But his approach hasn't changed much at all -- he's still swinging at more than 40% of the non-strikes he sees, where league average has dipped below 30%. His BABIP is .395 and literally leads the entire MLB. The last time someone ended a season with a BABIP in the .390 range was... Chris Johnson in 2013. No one (in the modern era at least) has ever repeated something like that.

 

Avi has maxed out the level of productivity he can achieve while maintaining his terrible approach to hitting -- and the result is a ~3.0 WAR player. I'll admit that I didn't think he had this in him, and I suppose it's possible for him to repeat against the odds, but it would make him the first person ever to do it.

 

Add the fact that his service time is running out, and the correct move is absolutely to try to sell high. The chance that it turns out burning us is non-zero, but it's extremely small.

[iamshack]

I'm sure he's hitting the ball harder, and that's good. But his approach hasn't changed much at all -- he's still swinging at more than 40% of the non-strikes he sees, where league average has dipped below 30%. His BABIP is .395 and literally leads the entire MLB. The last time someone ended a season with a BABIP in the .390 range was... Chris Johnson in 2013. No one (in the modern era at least) has ever repeated something like that.

 

Avi has maxed out the level of productivity he can achieve while maintaining his terrible approach to hitting -- and the result is a ~3.0 WAR player. I'll admit that I didn't think he had this in him, and I suppose it's possible for him to repeat against the odds, but it would make him the first person ever to do it.

 

Add the fact that his service time is running out, and the correct move is absolutely to try to sell high. The chance that it turns out burning us is non-zero, but it's extremely small.

SMH

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Ok, however you don't see him beating out a lot of weak infield hits, or hitting Texas Leaguers.

Actually you do. He has a lot of infield hits this year. I would guess he is among the league leaders for that if I knew how to find it to check.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'm sure he's hitting the ball harder, and that's good. But his approach hasn't changed much at all -- he's still swinging at more than 40% of the non-strikes he sees, where league average has dipped below 30%. His BABIP is .395 and literally leads the entire MLB. The last time someone ended a season with a BABIP in the .390 range was... Chris Johnson in 2013. No one (in the modern era at least) has ever repeated something like that.

 

Avi has maxed out the level of productivity he can achieve while maintaining his terrible approach to hitting -- and the result is a ~3.0 WAR player. I'll admit that I didn't think he had this in him, and I suppose it's possible for him to repeat against the odds, but it would make him the first person ever to do it.

 

Add the fact that his service time is running out, and the correct move is absolutely to try to sell high. The chance that it turns out burning us is non-zero, but it's extremely small.

Maybe we have different definitions of approach. Maybe I should 've called it concentration level or hitting smarts combined with a looser/quicker swing from weight loss .You just cant pick out sabre stats and say his approach is the same because so much goes into it when there is a drastic change in results not just luck . Haven't defenses in MLB evolved to eliminate luck as much as possible ?

 

We might be able to say it will be a career high in BABIP but he's hitting the ball all over the field so defenses have trouble with him. His improved speed has led to quite a few infield hits. I am at a disadvantage because I don't analyze the things you do. I only know what I observe and my understanding of the game. And right now Avi has made the necessary changes in many areas to improve his overall game. That cannot be denied and I hope that evolution continues even if an unusually high BABIP does not. I just hate the term luck when anyone talks about BABIP because it belittles the players very hard work to improve.

[iamshack]

Maybe we have different definitions of approach. Maybe I should 've called it concentration level or hitting smarts combined with a looser/quicker swing from weight loss .You just cant pick out sabre stats and say his approach is the same because so much goes into it when there is a drastic change in results not just luck . Haven't defenses in MLB evolved to eliminate luck as much as possible ?

 

We might be able to say it will be a career high in BABIP but he's hitting the ball all over the field so defenses have trouble with him. His improved speed has led to quite a few infield hits. I am at a disadvantage because I don't analyze the things you do. I only know what I observe and my understanding of the game. And right now Avi has made the necessary changes in many areas to improve his overall game. That cannot be denied and I hope that evolution continues even if an unusually high BABIP does not. I just hate the term luck when anyone talks about BABIP because it belittles the players very hard work to improve.

He's barreling up balls all over the place. I know Eminor isn't high on his plate discipline, but his approach is just fine. His problem is the launch angle really results in a lot of singles, which limits his value as a corner outfielder.

[Eminor3rd]

Maybe we have different definitions of approach. Maybe I should 've called it concentration level or hitting smarts combined with a looser/quicker swing from weight loss .You just cant pick out sabre stats and say his approach is the same because so much goes into it when there is a drastic change in results not just luck . Haven't defenses in MLB evolved to eliminate luck as much as possible ?

 

We might be able to say it will be a career high in BABIP but he's hitting the ball all over the field so defenses have trouble with him. His improved speed has led to quite a few infield hits. I am at a disadvantage because I don't analyze the things you do. I only know what I observe and my understanding of the game. And right now Avi has made the necessary changes in many areas to improve his overall game. That cannot be denied and I hope that evolution continues even if an unusually high BABIP does not. I just hate the term luck when anyone talks about BABIP because it belittles the players very hard work to improve.

 

 

He's barreling up balls all over the place. I know Eminor isn't high on his plate discipline, but his approach is just fine. His problem is the launch angle really results in a lot of singles, which limits his value as a corner outfielder.

 

He's barreling up balls all over the place. I know Eminor isn't high on his plate discipline, but his approach is just fine. His problem is the launch angle really results in a lot of singles, which limits his value as a corner outfielder.

 

So what part of his approach do you like? He swings at terrible pitches and maintains a groundball swing path after five full seasons.

 

"Barreling" the ball isn't an "approach," it's a "result." He's succeeding despite doing things that don't usually lead to success. Again, he may surprise us all and be the first guy ever to sustain a .390+ BABIP, but would you bet on it? He may finally learn to hit for 25+ HR power, but there's nothing to suggest he will at this point.

 

A 3 win player is a nice player to have around. but if .395 BABIP Avi is a 3 win player, then normalized Avi is, AT BEST, league average. There's nothing wrong with a league average player, but you don't build around him when he's a year away from free agency.

 

Look, I'm open to finding some evidence of something sustainable that changed with him -- I've just yet to see it. I just want what's best for this team and everything I've seen says is telling me this guy is a flash in the pan.

[soxforlife05]

The good thing is if we sell high this offseason we get more than if we traded him at the deadline. We could actually get a really nice player back now. I'm still not sold. I do hope we move him for a high upside bat or two. A guy like Tatis Jr would fit the bill....oh wait.........

Edited September 3, 2017 by soxforlife05

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

He's barreling up balls all over the place. I know Eminor isn't high on his plate discipline, but his approach is just fine. His problem is the launch angle really results in a lot of singles, which limits his value as a corner outfielder.

The problem with saying his O swing % or whatever its called sucks (40%) because it is the same as always and equating it to approach is just gross abuse of stats.

 

So his 40% swing rate on balls outside the zone is bad. So what does this tell us and, more importantly, what doesn't it tell us? I think like all single stats what is doesn't tell us is significantly higher. Stats are all over the internet and hard to track down maybe fangraphs has them all . I do not know. Just a quick look on baseball ref . I ask myself ok his swing rate at balls outside the zone is bad so maybe his K rate should be the same ? Not so, it's at the lowest of his career. Ok maybe he hits a lot of popups on those swings. . His fly balls on the infield rate which includes line drives also a career low significantly so at 6%

So that 40% terrible swing rate should result in a lot of poor contact so lemme check some XBH stats . Hmm XBH % at a career high 8.9% . Maybe we can agree XBH's don't usually fall into the lucky category since they are usually hit hard down the lines , into the gaps and over the fence.

 

So if we all look hard enough we can see plenty of areas of improvement .

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

So what part of his approach do you like? He swings at terrible pitches and maintains a groundball swing path after five full seasons.

Help me out here on that "maintains a groundball swing path" thingy.

 

On baseball ref under Ratio batting I found GO/AO which is ground outs to air outs. I noticed it was 1.38 which was a lot different than last years 1.90 and the lowest (or is it highest )of his career. Want to explain that to me ? I know so little about these things.

 

 

[TheFutureIsNear]

As with most things, I think the truth with Avi lies somewhere in the middle. I don't think he's as good as he is hitting this year or as bad as previous years. I suspect he'll end up something like .280/.330/.440 with 20 HR's if he manages to play 140+ games next year. With his D in RF being just ok that makes him right about above average? Maybe?

[TaylorStSox]

Can we have a Tatis Jr sticky so every time he's brought up we can just link the poster to that thread?

[southsider2k5]

And yet, Shields-for-Tatis happened. All it takes is one imbecile to buy in.

 

Like me for reading these posts...

[soxforlife05]

Can we have a Tatis Jr sticky so every time he's brought up we can just link the poster to that thread?

 

Are you saying I don't know who he is? I was probably the biggest vocal opponent to that trade although I certainly wasn't the only one. Weird how threads disappear on this site so you can't see anyone's track record of being right or wrong. Was right about Devers being the top guy to get from Boston, Delmonico being biggest sleeper before the season, Eaton trade being amazing, etc

[greg775]

So what part of his approach do you like? He swings at terrible pitches and maintains a groundball swing path after five full seasons.

 

"Barreling" the ball isn't an "approach," it's a "result." He's succeeding despite doing things that don't usually lead to success. Again, he may surprise us all and be the first guy ever to sustain a .390+ BABIP, but would you bet on it? He may finally learn to hit for 25+ HR power, but there's nothing to suggest he will at this point.

 

A 3 win player is a nice player to have around. but if .395 BABIP Avi is a 3 win player, then normalized Avi is, AT BEST, league average. There's nothing wrong with a league average player, but you don't build around him when he's a year away from free agency.

 

Look, I'm open to finding some evidence of something sustainable that changed with him -- I've just yet to see it. I just want what's best for this team and everything I've seen says is telling me this guy is a flash in the pan.

No offense to you stat guys, but gol darn I'm glad the advanced stats don't interest me. me sees Avi; me likey Avi.

[TaylorStSox]

Are you saying I don't know who he is? I was probably the biggest vocal opponent to that trade although I certainly wasn't the only one. Weird how threads disappear on this site so you can't see anyone's track record of being right or wrong. Was right about Devers being the top guy to get from Boston, Delmonico being biggest sleeper before the season, Eaton trade being amazing, etc

I don't think anybody cares whether you're right or wrong, tbh.

[Kyyle23]

Are you saying I don't know who he is? I was probably the biggest vocal opponent to that trade although I certainly wasn't the only one. Weird how threads disappear on this site so you can't see anyone's track record of being right or wrong. Was right about Devers being the top guy to get from Boston, Delmonico being biggest sleeper before the season, Eaton trade being amazing, etc

 

Threads don't disappear. You just need to know how and where to look for them

[Quin]

Are you saying I don't know who he is? I was probably the biggest vocal opponent to that trade although I certainly wasn't the only one. Weird how threads disappear on this site so you can't see anyone's track record of being right or wrong. Was right about Devers being the top guy to get from Boston, Delmonico being biggest sleeper before the season, Eaton trade being amazing, etc

 

I await your hypothetical GM decisions with bated breath.