Avi Hot streak

[Chicago White Sox]

I think Avi has made some real strides this year with the bat, but I definitely don't think he's someone you build around. His offensive profile still has too many question marks, I worry about his overall game if he were to add weight/lose speed as he ages, we're deep with minor league OFs, & we're going to have a f***ton of money in the coming years and I'd like to aim a little higher with that money than a 2-3 WAR player who doesn't play a premium up-the-middle position.

 

I'd shop him like crazy this offseason and seriously consider any deal headlined by a top 100 prospect. If not, I'd be ok with holding him into next year, but I don't see him as part of our next good team.

[iamshack]

So what part of his approach do you like? He swings at terrible pitches and maintains a groundball swing path after five full seasons.

 

"Barreling" the ball isn't an "approach," it's a "result." He's succeeding despite doing things that don't usually lead to success. Again, he may surprise us all and be the first guy ever to sustain a .390+ BABIP, but would you bet on it? He may finally learn to hit for 25+ HR power, but there's nothing to suggest he will at this point.

 

A 3 win player is a nice player to have around. but if .395 BABIP Avi is a 3 win player, then normalized Avi is, AT BEST, league average. There's nothing wrong with a league average player, but you don't build around him when he's a year away from free agency.

 

Look, I'm open to finding some evidence of something sustainable that changed with him -- I've just yet to see it. I just want what's best for this team and everything I've seen says is telling me this guy is a flash in the pan.

You're right, fair enough. But how long are you going to dismiss the results? The dude has clearly sustained this through several different phases of the season. He hits the ball extremely hard and has the speed to beat out a lot of balls that don't get through the left side of the infield.

 

Let me ask you this:

 

Are there a lot of other guys who have the kind of exit velocity Avi has averaged this year combined with a much lower than average launch angle? And have good speed?

 

Just curious.

 

[southsider2k5]

I will say this much. I don't think most of baseball has bought in to Avi Garcia yet, or someone would have offered enough to pry him away from the Sox during the firesale. I am not quite sure if he is a victim of the lack of value in offensive only players that happened this year, or if it is more of just no believing in him as of yet. It will be interesting to see what his value is during the winter.

[iamshack]

I will say this much. I don't think most of baseball has bought in to Avi Garcia yet, or someone would have offered enough to pry him away from the Sox during the firesale. I am not quite sure if he is a victim of the lack of value in offensive only players that happened this year, or if it is more of just no believing in him as of yet. It will be interesting to see what his value is during the winter.

I agree with you, which is why it makes even less sense to try and force him onto a market that doesn't value him.

[southsider2k5]

I agree with you, which is why it makes even less sense to try and force him onto a market that doesn't value him.

 

One thing I have learned with Rick Hahn, he isn't going to force anything. I have been amazed at how long he will wait on the market to come to him. If he doesn't get value from Avi, he WILL be our opening day RF in 2018.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I will say this much. I don't think most of baseball has bought in to Avi Garcia yet, or someone would have offered enough to pry him away from the Sox during the firesale. I am not quite sure if he is a victim of the lack of value in offensive only players that happened this year, or if it is more of just no believing in him as of yet. It will be interesting to see what his value is during the winter.

He started the season very hot but every month his BA declined so right before the trade deadline is when he bottomed out. Everyone around here was saying there's the regression we have been predicting.

 

Then August came and he hits .423 for the month. His slugging wasn't as high as April but the OBP was higher so OPS ended up close to the same for both months. Over 1.000 .

[Eminor3rd]

You're right, fair enough. But how long are you going to dismiss the results? The dude has clearly sustained this through several different phases of the season. He hits the ball extremely hard and has the speed to beat out a lot of balls that don't get through the left side of the infield.

 

Let me ask you this:

 

Are there a lot of other guys who have the kind of exit velocity Avi has averaged this year combined with a much lower than average launch angle? And have good speed?

 

Just curious.

 

Honestly, I think it's another full year. There are just SO many guys who looked awesome for one year on a huge BABIP who fell apart immediately. If he has the same year next year as this one, I'm thinking "OK, maybe this guys is just different." But the problem is, by then, he's a pending FA. I guess if he does it and the rest of the team just f***ing shoves all year and looks like a near contender, then it's worth it to keep him and make one title shot with him. But it's just so unlikely for BOTH of those things to happen.

 

Like, he definitely MIGHT be that guy. I'm not saying that he CAN'T be. But if you're running the team you have to look at the risk/reward. He also definitely PROBABLY isn't that guy, based on everything we can measure. And if you bet on him, and he is this unprecedented legit guy, then what you have is one relevant season of a 3-win OF. Which is nice! But when you factor the risk, it's a lot to bet on a good-not-great outcome.

 

I think this conversation is entirely different if he has this success in his first or second year. And, should the offers for him not be very impressive, there is certainly a point where it still makes sense to roll the dice for that one decent competitive season. But given the risk profile and the service timeline, it definitely makes MOST sense to try to sell him at peak value. That doesn't mean give him away for nothing, but the most intelligent outcome would be to sell him now for some real value that can be realized 2-5 years down the line, if it can be achieved.

[Real]

He needs to hit more XBH to make his defense tolerable

[BlackSox13]

He needs to hit more XBH to make his defense tolerable

Was throwing out Lindor at second tolerable? I though it was a pretty damn good play.

[oldsox]

Are you saying I don't know who he is? I was probably the biggest vocal opponent to that trade although I certainly wasn't the only one. Weird how threads disappear on this site so you can't see anyone's track record of being right or wrong. Was right about Devers being the top guy to get from Boston, Delmonico being biggest sleeper before the season, Eaton trade being amazing, etc

second biggest.

[southsider2k5]

He started the season very hot but every month his BA declined so right before the trade deadline is when he bottomed out. Everyone around here was saying there's the regression we have been predicting.

 

Then August came and he hits .423 for the month. His slugging wasn't as high as April but the OBP was higher so OPS ended up close to the same for both months. Over 1.000 .

 

It is also worth pointing out that his worst stretch also overlapped his injury before he went on the DL.

[oldsox]

I think Avi has made some real strides this year with the bat, but I definitely don't think he's someone you build around. His offensive profile still has too many question marks, I worry about his overall game if he were to add weight/lose speed as he ages, we're deep with minor league OFs, & we're going to have a f***ton of money in the coming years and I'd like to aim a little higher with that money than a 2-3 WAR player who doesn't play a premium up-the-middle position.

 

I'd shop him like crazy this offseason and seriously consider any deal headlined by a top 100 prospect. If not, I'd be ok with holding him into next year, but I don't see him as part of our next good team.

I think Sox need a lot more than a Top 100 Prospect for Avi. A lot more.

[Jose Abreu]

He needs to hit more XBH to make his defense tolerable

Yeah, his average to above average defense is a real pain when his OPS is only in the .860s.

 

/green

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It is also worth pointing out that his worst stretch also overlapped his injury before he went on the DL.

Exactly and I think it bothered him for a long time even most of August since he wasn't really hitting for power l I haven't looked up the injury date(s) and cannot remember what caused it. A HBP followed by a few more HBP ? All around the hand /wrist area ? I know while watching the August games if he got jammed quite a few times I saw him shaking his hand either in the a batters box or after running down to first base. Only with his recent triple and HR did I start to think ,hmmm maybe his hand is feeling better now. I know it's hard to imagine someone with a hand/wrist hurting hitting .423 for the month but a loss of power is often associated with those kind of injuries. Kind of scary to think he might have learned to be an even better hitter because of the injuries. He may have just been relying on what he knows he has always done best and that's hit up the middle and to the right side . His triple was off the right field wall and HR also to RF.

[Dam8610]

Suggesting this again: Ryan McMahon for Avi, who says no?

[Dick Allen]

His BABIP will go down when he changes his launch angle a bit and these liners go over the wall. It's already changed some. Yeah, he still swings at his share of bad pitches, but so do a lot of hitters. The guy is hitting .325, and was pretty decent the second half of last year as well.

 

It amazes me how any little success with some players causes some to break out the baby oil, but with guys like Avi, a season and a half of not being this horrible player they pegged his as being, hasn't at least made them shift off their stance at least a little bit. There was upset the Sox gave him $3 million to play this year.

 

Avi needs to change his name, then any past suckage will be forgotten.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

It's hard to look at Avi's advance stats and find anything to attribute this too, except he has been healthier this year and always has had hot BABIP streaks, he makes pretty good contact.

 

He may end september on a cold streak. I think his ZIPs of .280/.330/.450 is Avi Garcia, and even with improved defense he's like a 2ish WAR player. No one to extend, no one you'll get much back for. He's settled in and that's good.

 

BUT, if there is a backbreaking justification for why he may have higher BABIP than others, his spray charts are impressively all over the field. I believe he is played straight up traditional defensive alignment. WE've heard that teams care less about defense for players now that they can shift better to protect them from poor range.

 

Maybe Avi will have a better BABIP than others because he has to get played straight up, and teams have put worse defenders out there to get more offense in game.

 

But I don't really believe that.

 

That said, let's just enjoy Avi doing well. Some players will fall through the cracks of good right now or good for future. He'll play for us for 2 more years and probably be gone. That's okay.

[southsider2k5]

It's hard to look at Avi's advance stats and find anything to attribute this too, except he has been healthier this year and always has had hot BABIP streaks, he makes pretty good contact.

 

He may end september on a cold streak. I think his ZIPs of .280/.330/.450 is Avi Garcia, and even with improved defense he's like a 2ish WAR player. No one to extend, no one you'll get much back for. He's settled in and that's good.

 

BUT, if there is a backbreaking justification for why he may have higher BABIP than others, his spray charts are impressively all over the field. I believe he is played straight up traditional defensive alignment. WE've heard that teams care less about defense for players now that they can shift better to protect them from poor range.

 

Maybe Avi will have a better BABIP than others because he has to get played straight up, and teams have put worse defenders out there to get more offense in game.

 

But I don't really believe that.

 

That said, let's just enjoy Avi doing well. Some players will fall through the cracks of good right now or good for future. He'll play for us for 2 more years and probably be gone. That's okay.

 

I will say this much. This year by Avi is exactly why you don't rush to dump high ceiling young players if they aren't successful in a short to immediate time frame.

[bmags]

I will say this much. This year by Avi is exactly why you don't rush to dump high ceiling young players if they aren't successful in a short to immediate time frame.

 

This year was chalk full of disappointing players from the 2008 draft suddenly doing well. Baseball is weird.

 

I have to say it's a great message that Avi and Jose come to camp in shape and have such good and healthy years. Sets a good tone for moving forward.

[southsider2k5]

This year was chalk full of disappointing players from the 2008 draft suddenly doing well. Baseball is weird.

 

I have to say it's a great message that Avi and Jose come to camp in shape and have such good and healthy years. Sets a good tone for moving forward.

 

The big lesson here is that a guy like Yoan Moncada IS a guy who could take 2 to 3 years, maybe more, to start to get it. He has some pretty decent holes in his game that he will have to address going forward if he wants to hit his ceiling.

[iamshack]

It's hard to look at Avi's advance stats and find anything to attribute this too, except he has been healthier this year and always has had hot BABIP streaks, he makes pretty good contact.

 

He may end september on a cold streak. I think his ZIPs of .280/.330/.450 is Avi Garcia, and even with improved defense he's like a 2ish WAR player. No one to extend, no one you'll get much back for. He's settled in and that's good.

 

BUT, if there is a backbreaking justification for why he may have higher BABIP than others, his spray charts are impressively all over the field. I believe he is played straight up traditional defensive alignment. WE've heard that teams care less about defense for players now that they can shift better to protect them from poor range.

 

Maybe Avi will have a better BABIP than others because he has to get played straight up, and teams have put worse defenders out there to get more offense in game.

 

But I don't really believe that.

 

That said, let's just enjoy Avi doing well. Some players will fall through the cracks of good right now or good for future. He'll play for us for 2 more years and probably be gone. That's okay.

They seem to play him up the middle in the infield a bit...I've seen him hit a few rockets right back up the middle and then suddenly there is a guy right there.

[bmags]

They seem to play him up the middle in the infield a bit...I've seen him hit a few rockets right back up the middle and then suddenly there is a guy right there.

 

Probably true to be honest I could only find Fangraphs shift tab with traditional stats so I assumed that meant it didn't have non traditional ABs. Will probably be more accurate after 2017 or if someone knows where to find that.

 

Edit: nvm i just completely whiffed on that tab. Ignore that entire second half.

[southsider2k5]

I don't know how to prove it or not, but to me, Avi just seems to swing harder this year. It looks to me like instead of seeming unsure about himself from pitch to pitch in years past, he is just airing it out on each swing. If he hits it, he hits it harder.

[ChiSox59]

Suggesting this again: Ryan McMahon for Avi, who says no?

 

If McMahon could actually play 3B, I'd be all over this. Unfortunately he can't.

[Bob Sacamano]

If McMahon could actually play 3B, I'd be all over this. Unfortunately he can't.

 

I've been saying he'll probably end up at 1B for the Rockies next season anyway. Don't think he will get traded.

Edited September 5, 2017 by soxfan2014