Trade avi in the offseason?

[bmags]

He's not a power hitter but he is a streaky power hitter. He may very well have a 5 hr in 15 game stretch that makes it look better than you assume.

[Dam8610]

Update on xStats numbers: .296/.346/.493 with a .337 BABIP

 

I still don't think we'd get much for him in the offseason but if the right deal was there I'd absolutely pull the trigger. Extending him seems premature too though so I'd wait and see, even if he has another good year next year he still wouldn't be too expensive.

 

If he puts up somewhere around the line above next year then you can think about extending him, though the number of years would be more more important IMO than the AAV.

 

So an .840 OPS at a .337 BABIP? If his defense holds, that's a 3 fWAR player.

[witesoxfan]

Now you guys have gone beyond where I feel qualified to make an assertion. This entire business of launch angles, and BABIP is a nuance, about which I claim no expertise. Please enlighten me, from an objective perspective, if that's possible. Just how realistic is it, for a guy who has demonstrated his ability to barrel up the ball, to alter his approach, in an attempt elevate his hits, and thus hit more home runs? Can it be significantly accomplished and at what expense? Isn't it logical that a player's batting average will suffer? There does not seem to be a consensus on this subject, at least not on this board.

 

Avisail Garcia is running a .397 BABIP. The two players closest to him are Miguel Sano and Chris Taylor, both at .379. The last guy to be in the .390s over a full season was Chris Johnson in 2013. What Avisail is doing is great, but he is not a true talent .333 hitter. He is probably closer to that of a .300 guy.

 

Also, it is not easy to increase launch angles. There are plenty of guys people say "well if they start hitting the ball in the air, they'd be better." While if I s*** gold, I'd be a millionaire. It takes a concerted effort and pitchers aren't throwing pitches up there so you can improve your launch angle. Yonder Alonson hit 20 homers in the first half of the season because he was able to lift the ball a bit better. Pitchers have made adjustments and he's only hit 5 in the second half while his ground ball percentage has increased from 30.2% in the first half to 38.5% in the second half, while his flyball percentage has gone from 48.7% to 35% over the same timeframe. That said, it can be done, and Daniel Murphy is the best example of what happens when a guy can do it and do it right. Most of the time, however, it involves sacrificing some contact to hit the ball further.

 

If Avisail is a true .300 hitter, which is not out of the realm of possibility, and he maintains his gap to gap hitting while remaining a 15-20 homer hitter, he's still plenty valuable.

 

Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story.

 

No one has ever suggested any of this. There is no need to be snarky about this. Players make adjustments all the time and improve or worsen all the time for any number of factors. Advanced metrics just help us look for things going on behind the scenes that may paint a better picture. The game is not played on paper, but the details on paper help us figure out who is good and who is not.

 

I don't remember the exact number, but show the true talent and quality of a team (aka statistical significance), it would take somewhere around 225-250 games. They obviously only play 162, which is how you end up with great teams missing the playoffs and underdogs making the playoffs.

[witesoxfan]

Update on xStats numbers: .296/.346/.493 with a .337 BABIP

 

I still don't think we'd get much for him in the offseason but if the right deal was there I'd absolutely pull the trigger. Extending him seems premature too though so I'd wait and see, even if he has another good year next year he still wouldn't be too expensive.

 

If he puts up somewhere around the line above next year then you can think about extending him, though the number of years would be more more important IMO than the AAV.

 

This is a good post.

[bmags]

This is a good post.

 

Plus if you wait another year you get to see if he sticks to his conditioning through another offseason.

[greg775]

I've read all the threads. Many profess to 'love' Avi but it all boils down to one thing. The consensus is don't pay him. And many want to trade him. Even though Lillian put together great post after post about how you need guys like Avi and Jose Abreu to go with the young studs to win a pennant (now Lillian knows how greg feels as the antagonist), very few are buying that. Sox fans don't want to pay anybody cept international prospects who need the lump sum to join the organization, certainly don't want to pay Avi.

That's fine. Let's drop the subject.

Tell me if I'm reading the people wrong. The naysayers usually start their posts with the caveat "I love what Avi did this year or I love Avi, but ..."

The majority opinion is don't sign Avi for more years; for gawd sakes don't give him a lot of money. We are Sox fans. We don't want to pay our own. We don't respect our own (veteran players). We love prospects and we LOVE low payrolls.

 

That's how I read this thread. It's America, feel free to tell me I'm full of bleep. Read Lillian's posts and read the responses. Very few want to pay Avi/keep Avi around once he needs more money. It's prospects we want, baby. Lilian, thanks for trying and your great posts!

Edited September 15, 2017 by greg775

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

He's hit 17 HRs in 121 games, including a stretch from the all star break to September where he didn't hit a single HR (likely due to the hand injury he suffered having an effect on his power, as well as the missed time due to said hand injury and a separate knee injury). I think 25-30 HR potential is in that bat if he can be healthy for 162 games. He won't hit more than 15-20 in a season, though, If he can't keep himself healthy and in the lineup.

 

Rarely does anyone play 162. So let's just go with 150 because it's easy math and is definetely reasonable. He has hit 17 HR in 121 games.. That's 14% of games. If you multiply that by estimated games played he hits only 21... Avi is not a power hitter. You can't negate his poor month either.. Do we just negate his best month then? You include it all because bad stretches happen.

[Chisoxfn]

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having?

Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to

hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him.

 

I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win

a lot of games.

 

Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects.

 

I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

I think the key point is you get to a spot where to get better, you can't keep removing guys on the roster who are already solid players...if you do that you are in a neverending process where you aren't getting the talent. With Abreu, I understand the concept of moving him because he will get older, that said, his bat is really good and if you move him without getting pieces who can get plugged into the lineup (relatively near-term), you are just subtracting from your team and shooting your rebuild in the foot. With Avi, that argument is even clearer, especially since, we should have capacity from a pure contract perspective. The interesting point with Avi is how do you project him out long-term and how much do you view this season as a mirage (and what is the league worth). I can see scenarios to move him, but I also see a guy at his age who this could be the first year of an ascent to being a really good hitter (a tool that he has always had). While his BAPIP is inflated, he has hit the ball hard and seen some improvements in other offensive trends..including better walks rates, etc. Additionally, his defense has taken a major step forward (from how bad it was) which also enables him to be a more effective player then before.

 

Being able to have an Avi in your lineup when your other guys come up, allows you to actually have a deep roster and he very much can be a valid contributor to the team during periods where we anticipate contending.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I've read all the threads. Many profess to 'love' Avi but it all boils down to one thing. The consensus is don't pay him. And many want to trade him. Even though Lillian put together great post after post about how you need guys like Avi and Jose Abreu to go with the young studs to win a pennant (now Lillian knows how greg feels as the antagonist), very few are buying that. Sox fans don't want to pay anybody cept international prospects who need the lump sum to join the organization, certainly don't want to pay Avi.

That's fine. Let's drop the subject.

Tell me if I'm reading the people wrong. The naysayers usually start their posts with the caveat "I love what Avi did this year or I love Avi, but ..."

The majority opinion is don't sign Avi for more years; for gawd sakes don't give him a lot of money. We are Sox fans. We don't want to pay our own. We don't respect our own (veteran players). We love prospects and we LOVE low payrolls.

 

That's how I read this thread. It's America, feel free to tell me I'm full of bleep. Read Lillian's posts and read the responses. Very few want to pay Avi/keep Avi around once he needs more money. It's prospects we want, baby. Lilian, thanks for trying and your great posts!

 

Now I see why no one likes this guy. lol in all seriousness us "naysayers" don't want to fork over 100 million for a guy who shouldn't have made this roster out of spring training, despite his outstanding year. We want to see more before we invest in him.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I also don't believe anyone here is advocating trading him for a basket of bananas. We'd all want/expect something of value for him. Like a Hot N' Ready pizza

[bmags]

What if we signed Avi to 4/60 right now? Buy out his Arb years and get a 2 year extension?

 

edit: I'm not really advocating htis, I'd rather we just let him play and then if he's still good either let him leave or sign him. But I question the "he'll get 100million" ideas.

[Dick Allen]

Trading him is only plausible if another team cooperates and pays up to get him. It doesn't do any good to trade him for someone who it would take a miracle for them to outperform him. There is no need for a salary dump.

 

To me, Hahn would like to sell him high if he could.

 

But kudos to Avi for having a great year. Whether it's "sustainable" is for everyone to argue, but he already has sustained it a lot longer than anyone would have thought. He's still learning. We will see what happens, but in baseball, sometimes things change. Todd Frazier is a walk machine now. Who would have thought that?

Edited September 15, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Soha]

I also don't believe anyone here is advocating trading him for a basket of bananas. We'd all want/expect something of value for him. Like a Hot N' Ready pizza

 

If the Sox try to trade him, that's going to be be a major red flag to other teams. They'd be like, umm this is exactly what you should need for your rebuild, why are you trying to dump him off? I think it would scare other teams off thinking the Sox know something they don't. So with that in mind, I don't think they can get a good return for Avi. At least not one worth what he has been bringing. Just re-sign him. There's like no money committed to the future. There's little to no downside to this.

[elrockinMT]

Trading him is only plausible if another team cooperates and pays up to get him. It doesn't do any good to trade him for someone who it would take a miracle for them to outperform him. There is no need for a salary dump.

 

To me, Hahn would like to sell him high if he could.

 

But kudos to Avi for having a great year. Whether it's "sustainable" is for everyone to argue, but he already has sustained it a lot longer than anyone would have thought. He's still learning. We will see what happens, but in baseball, sometimes things change. Todd Frazier is a walk machine now. Who would have thought that?

 

 

I have to wonder about the mindset of some fands who continually call for the trading of our performer and then complain about young players who struggle. Avi Garcia is the prime example. He is young and always had talent. It took him awhile to put it together. He has this year and has not only sustained it but gotten better. Of course anyone and everyone is available at the right price but you need to build a winning team around a core group of veterans. Jose Abreu and Avi Garcia fit that category. Tim Anderson will be entering year three in the bigs. You don't trade unless it makes the team better than it was before the trade. Plus money should not be the Sox issue at this time. Plus I wouldn't mind the Sox looking at Todd Frazier gain in the off season. Davidson can play 3B-1B and DH and so can Todd. Plus the numbers are similar. We have no one in the minors quite ready for the jump yet.

[witesoxfan]

What if we signed Avi to 4/60 right now? Buy out his Arb years and get a 2 year extension?

 

edit: I'm not really advocating htis, I'd rather we just let him play and then if he's still good either let him leave or sign him. But I question the "he'll get 100million" ideas.

 

I would say that $15 mill per year is about what I'd value him at, but would base the next two years based on the standard 40/60/80 arbitration value. Say 4/$52, $9 mill in 2018, $12 mill in 2019, $15 mill in 2020, $15 mill in 2021, $18 million option for 2022 or a $1 mill buyout.

[chitownsportsfan]

If the Sox try to trade him, that's going to be be a major red flag to other teams. They'd be like, umm this is exactly what you should need for your rebuild, why are you trying to dump him off? I think it would scare other teams off thinking the Sox know something they don't. So with that in mind, I don't think they can get a good return for Avi. At least not one worth what he has been bringing. Just re-sign him. There's like no money committed to the future. There's little to no downside to this.

 

Yea this isn't how GMs talk to each other and it's not the scenario the Sox are in with Avi either. The Sox are going to have a logjam in the OF the next few years. They have Leury, Rutherford, Engel, Eloy, Delmonico, Adolfo etc and everyone of those guys is 3+ years further away from FA than Avi, and thus fit in the rebuild time frame better.

 

Any GM in today's MLB knows Avi's history and knows his inflated BABIP this year. That GM will also know that their have been changes in Avi's swing and approach that perhaps mitigate those concerns.

[Dick Allen]

The two things no one will argue about are Avi has a ton of ability, and he gives max effort. It doesn't mean it will translate into multiple all star appearances, but it does help.

[Bob Sacamano]

I have to wonder about the mindset of some fands who continually call for the trading of our performer and then complain about young players who struggle. Avi Garcia is the prime example. He is young and always had talent. It took him awhile to put it together. He has this year and has not only sustained it but gotten better. Of course anyone and everyone is available at the right price but you need to build a winning team around a core group of veterans. Jose Abreu and Avi Garcia fit that category. Tim Anderson will be entering year three in the bigs. You don't trade unless it makes the team better than it was before the trade. Plus money should not be the Sox issue at this time. Plus I wouldn't mind the Sox looking at Todd Frazier gain in the off season. Davidson can play 3B-1B and DH and so can Todd. Plus the numbers are similar. We have no one in the minors quite ready for the jump yet.

 

If Garcia had another year or 2 of control beyond the 2 seasons we have him for, there would be less talk of trading him. I also feel like signing him to an extension right now is premature. I would want to see if he at least starts next year off like this. If he's playing the same and they can't come to an agreement on an extension by July 31, trade him.

Edited September 15, 2017 by soxfan2014

[he gone.]

Let's see what JD Martinez gets this offseason. The Tigers didn't get a whole ton for him at the deadline and look what he's done on AZ. He's mashing the ball. The guy has produced every single year since coming to DET and his trade market was poor. Doubt Avi would get much in a trade so my incentive to trade him is low.

No in terms of an extension? I'd rather play out the years with him and see where his market value stands. We have money to spend. If he plays his way into a contract so be it. I've gone from an Avi hater to essentially "Gordon Beckham" mode on him.

 

My stance on Beckham after his few down years was always - he's not the problem, he's not the solution but you can run him out there and have him fill a role on your team while you plug other holes. If Avi can play 0-2 WAR for the next 3-5 years I take it happily.

 

I don't expect him to crash and burn and I don't expect him to suddenly be a superstar.

[jenksycat]

I'd still need to see the first half of 2018 repeat this performance + health before doing anything - trade or sign.

[Soha]

Yea this isn't how GMs talk to each other and it's not the scenario the Sox are in with Avi either. The Sox are going to have a logjam in the OF the next few years. They have Leury, Rutherford, Engel, Eloy, Delmonico, Adolfo etc and everyone of those guys is 3+ years further away from FA than Avi, and thus fit in the rebuild time frame better.

 

Any GM in today's MLB knows Avi's history and knows his inflated BABIP this year. That GM will also know that their have been changes in Avi's swing and approach that perhaps mitigate those concerns.

 

I didn't say GM's would say that to each other. It's a natural question they will ask among themselves. Your hopes of a logjam are pinned entirely on a a bunch of fringe outfield prospects panning out in to players that are better than Avi is right now. Yeah I'm on board with Eloy and Robert. The others fall in the 'unlikely to ever be as good as Avi' category. Maybe some will pan out. But you absolutely can't count on that. That's a terrible way to build a team.

[Greg Hibbard]

Taking the BABIP into account, it feels as though the truth is that Avi has improved significantly from being a .740-.750 OPS hitter, but I think he maxes out over time as another .780 OPS type hitter. With sub-par defense.

 

In other words, basically a slightly above replacement level guy.

 

I'd trade him in a heartbeat in the offseason.

 

I hope I'm wrong though.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

What if we signed Avi to 4/60 right now? Buy out his Arb years and get a 2 year extension?

 

edit: I'm not really advocating htis, I'd rather we just let him play and then if he's still good either let him leave or sign him. But I question the "he'll get 100million" ideas.

 

For where he is on the arb scale, that is even a bit high. It would be more like 4/50. 6/12/15/17. Technically he is a few days short of having 5 years in the service scale, so if he went to arb he'd be looking at something like 5-7 million.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story.

That's true to an extent even if people don't like hearing it . There are tons of stats to look at but we always see one poster mention a stat or 2 to make his point while another poster will list 2 other stats to make his, We never get a valid complete analysis mainly because this is a place to write short quick answers or people skip your post . I often read whole threads from beginning to end but many don't and often the same things are said over and over.

 

Now the argument is going around that Avi is a singles hitter and that's all he will ever be, Maybe the question should be "What percentage of your total hits should XBH's to say that someone is not just a singles hitter? " Is it 10 % 15 ? 20-25 ?

 

We are just taking our best guesses but so many feel validated and qualified to make statements where they are absolutely 100% cocksure of themselves because they found a few stats to support their argument and ignore the others. A competent and fair analyst should look at a stat , ask not only what does it tell me but what doesn't it tell me and follow his curiosity with an open mind without looking for validation of his initial thought process.

 

If you are honest and make a statement like I am no expert or I don't feel qualified it is held against you. Like AHA ! you just said you aren't qualified and I am and my facts and opinion is better than yours because you admitted a weakness.

 

What it boils down to in its most pure form on a message board is opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

Edited September 15, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[witesoxfan]

That's true to an extent even if people don't like hearing it . There are tons of stats to look at but we always see one poster mention a stat or 2 to make his point while another poster will list 2 other stats to make his, We never get a valid complete analysis mainly because this is a place to write short quick answers or people skip your post . I often read whole threads from beginning to end but many don't and often the same things are said over and over.

 

Now the argument is going around that Avi is a singles hitter and that's all he will ever be, But a simple look at his XBH % says its the best of his career .We are just taking our best guesses but so many feel validated and qualified to make statements where they are absolutely 100% cocksure of themselves because they found a few stats to support their argument and ignore the others. A competent and fair analyst should look at a stat , ask not only what does it tell me but what doesn't it tell me and follow his curiosity with an open mind without looking for validation of his initial thought process.

 

If you are honest and make a statement like I am no expert or I don't feel qualified it is held against you. Like AHA ! you just said you aren't qualified and I am and my facts and opinion is better than yours because you admitted a weakness.

 

What it boils down to in its most pure form on a message board is opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

 

Anybody that has ever suggested Avisail Garcia is a singles hitter is wrong. That is not an opinion, that is a fact. His career Iso is .139, which is basically Melky Cabrera's Iso. Melky hits a lot of singles, but he is a gap to gap hitter with the ability to hit the ball out.

 

Juan Pierre was a singles hitter. Dee Gordon is a singles hitter. Guys that are singles hitters really don't make it in the majors unless they continually hit about .320 and/or have good speed and/or play great defense and/or draw walks and/or have a ton of versatility.