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Trade avi in the offseason?


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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 02:10 PM)

 

Will anyone buy his future as a 4 WAR player, though? I think the potential is there, because I think we will see positive regression on his power numbers coincidental to the negative BABIP regression that's likely to occur. Steamer's 2017 projection has him as a ~2 WAR player, but changing the HR output from 20 to 25 turns him into a ~4 WAR player, and that's something I think we could see from Avi in 2018 if the change we saw in 2017 is sustainable.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 02:10 PM)

Really sounds like the Sox are sending this out into the media to get a feel on potential interest in Garcia.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 08:07 PM)
Will anyone buy his future as a 4 WAR player, though? I think the potential is there, because I think we will see positive regression on his power numbers coincidental to the negative BABIP regression that's likely to occur. Steamer's 2017 projection has him as a ~2 WAR player, but changing the HR output from 20 to 25 turns him into a ~4 WAR player, and that's something I think we could see from Avi in 2018 if the change we saw in 2017 is sustainable.

If he's not a 4 WAR player but he's a 3 WAR player, that's still pretty valuable and worth trading for.

 

One other note worth thinking about is that teams don't have a ton of free agent options if they are trying to fill those OF slots.

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QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 09:05 PM)
I've said it a few times, but unless the Sox hit a HR on the trade front with Avi/Abreu, I think the fan backlash will be a lot worse than what they experienced last year.

I don't buy it. Even if I try to be mad for the season, there's a shiny new Eloy under the tree.

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QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 08:25 PM)
If Abreu and/or Avi is traded for underwhelming packages, fans aren't going to #TrustTheProcess like was done last season.

 

Reason being? There isn't a compelling reason to trade either(given the package in question is underwhelming).

And yet, even if people are trusting the process less, the fruits of it will be in front of those same fans during spring training, throwing 100+ and hitting everything in sight.

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QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 07:05 PM)
I've said it a few times, but unless the Sox hit a HR on the trade front with Avi/Abreu, I think the fan backlash will be a lot worse than what they experienced last year.

I don't know. This board is only a sample size of the fanbase but going by what fans are saying here, it looks to me like many will understand if Avi and or Abreu are traded.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 07:33 PM)
I don't know. This board is only a sample size of the fanbase but going by what fans are saying here, it looks to me like many will understand if Avi and or Abreu are traded.

 

This board understands baseball better than the average fan. The average fan will say "oh, so they're just gonna trade every good player we have."

 

I'm with Tony on this one.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 08:33 PM)
I don't know. This board is only a sample size of the fanbase but going by what fans are saying here, it looks to me like many will understand if Avi and or Abreu are traded.

 

This board is comprised of fans that follow the sport much closer than a casual fan. Soxtalk represents the opinions of pretty knowledgeable fans from what I have seen, which is why it's so interesting.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 8, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
This board understands baseball better than the average fan. The average fan will say "oh, so they're just gonna trade every good player we have."

 

I'm with Tony on this one.

 

I think right now the fan base is pretty well sold on 2019. If Abreu and Avi are dealt, that could change that perception. I am not sure how the fan base would react to seeing a time table of say 2021 as being realistic, or if things don't seem to be going positive by next season.

 

We all know Sox fans aren't exactly the most positive bunch in general. Right now Hahn has a surprising amount of goodwill, but it isn't to squint and see the lynchmob mentality return either.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 8, 2017 -> 02:41 PM)
I think right now the fan base is pretty well sold on 2019. If Abreu and Avi are dealt, that could change that perception. I am not sure how the fan base would react to seeing a time table of say 2021 as being realistic, or if things don't seem to be going positive by next season.

 

We all know Sox fans aren't exactly the most positive bunch in general. Right now Hahn has a surprising amount of goodwill, but it isn't to squint and see the lynchmob mentality return either.

 

Right, and that's not to say that what they are doing isn't putting feelers out there. That's likely exactly what they are doing. Hahn is still shopping. It just so happens to be that, with these two players in particular, you have to receive a certain package that I don't think teams will pay. Hahn himself has said that everyone is available or that everyone has a price. That will always be true with every player. That doesn't mean they will be dealt.

 

What was the number I remember being thrown out there, something like 99 out of 100 trade talks don't pan out? I'm guessing both of these will fall in that 99 category.

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Theres probably not a huge market for a corner OF this offseason if you take the Royals and Indians out.

 

Other than that you are probably looking at the Orioles, Cardinals, Giants, and Rangers. The Cardinals have some interesting names like Sierra and Alcantara. The rest of the farm systems are pretty meh.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 8, 2017 -> 06:37 PM)
Theres probably not a huge market for a corner OF this offseason if you take the Royals and Indians out.

 

Other than that you are probably looking at the Orioles, Cardinals, Giants, and Rangers. The Cardinals have some interesting names like Sierra and Alcantara. The rest of the farm systems are pretty meh.

The outfielders on the market aren't going to light the world on fire. After JD martinez, there's a group containing Cain, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gomez, Melky Cabrera, and a lot of backups even worse than that. Other than JD, there's no one on there that you're going to call a difference maker nearly as much as Avi.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 8, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
This board understands baseball better than the average fan. The average fan will say "oh, so they're just gonna trade every good player we have."

 

I'm with Tony on this one.

Some fans have already been saying that anyway, f*** em. Those are likely the same fans that booed Avi at Sox fest 2016. :lol:

 

I think the majority of the Sox fan base will understand if Avi and Abreu are traded. And like we've seen with a few of the trades already, some will like the return and some will not.

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Nov 8, 2017 -> 02:29 PM)
This board is comprised of fans that follow the sport much closer than a casual fan. Soxtalk represents the opinions of pretty knowledgeable fans from what I have seen, which is why it's so interesting.

Yep, agree 100%. It's why I do all my White Sox talking on this board and not the other board. Best place to talk and learn about White Sox baseball.

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