Trade avi in the offseason?

[Dam8610]

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having?

Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to

hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him.

 

I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win

a lot of games.

 

Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects.

 

I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

 

Uncertainty is why many want to trade Avi, and why it's a justifiable position to take. This could be a breakout, or it could be a flash in the pan. If it's the latter, it would look pretty foolish to pass on a good trade offer. That's why I think they should shop Avi, but they need to get the right deal for him, and if that can't be found, hold him and roll the dice. The way he's hitting right now, he's the new Magglio Ordoñez (with a worse K/BB ratio and a better glove) if he can sustain the pace.

[LittleHurt05]

The question isn't as much trade Avi or not, it is do you believe in him enough to give him a big money multi-year extension? If you keep him around, that is the point you are getting too. We saw what a pure hitter at the of his contract was worth this season, so the window is narrowing quickly to get anything for Avi.

 

On the contrary, how much does it hurt you if you give him an extension and he busts again? You don't have a lot of payroll obligations, it's not like you have a small window to compete due to age. You might be more willing to take the risk on him than in a different situation.

 

If you pass on him, you are also assuming that your prospects can be better, which is never a given.

 

That's why the GMs get big bucks or fired within 3 years. (Unless they work.for JR)

[southsider2k5]

On the contrary, how much does it hurt you if you give him an extension and he busts again? You don't have a lot of payroll obligations, it's not like you have a small window to compete due to age. You might be more willing to take the risk on him than in a different situation.

 

If you pass on him, you are also assuming that your prospects can be better, which is never a given.

 

That's why the GMs get big bucks or fired within 3 years. (Unless they work.for JR)

 

Sure, but the time he would be in his expensive bust years would be the point where this team should be adding payroll. A $15 or $20 million a year anchor could really F things up.

[Lillian]

Obviously, it depends upon how much money it would require to lock up Avi, for the next 5 or 6 years. If it is going to take more than what the Sox would have to pay for a proven free agent, such as Machado, then the money would be better spent on the more established player. I'm assuming that since Avi has a couple of years to go, before free agency, that he would consider signing an extension, to increase what he would make over those 2 remaining years, and acquire some security for himself. A contract that would take him to age 32, would still give him one more shot at a bigger deal, when it expires.

 

One more point, which some of us are overlooking, is the possibility that we haven't yet seen the best of Avi. He has tremendous power. He may end up hitting a lot more home runs and driving in more runs, even at the expense of sacrificing a few points on that impressive batting average.

 

Look, it's always a gamble with any of these players and the huge money that they are paid. However, a reasonable contract would seem like a worthwhile risk.

[Dam8610]

Sure, but the time he would be in his expensive bust years would be the point where this team should be adding payroll. A $15 or $20 million a year anchor could really F things up.

 

Such risk could be mitigated by a shorter term deal with mutual options. Something like:

 

2018: $25 million

2019: $10 million

2020: $10 million

2021: $15 million (mutual option w/$5 million team buyout)

2022: $15 million (mutual option w/$3 million team buyout)

2023: $15 million (mutual option w/$1 million team buyout)

 

This guarantees 3/$50, the frontloading makes the contract less of an albatross if he busts, and if this isn't a mirage, the Sox have the potential to have a middle of the order bat on a 6/$90 deal.

[Heads22]

Such risk could be mitigated by a shorter term deal with mutual options. Something like:

 

2018: $25 million

2019: $10 million

2020: $10 million

2021: $15 million (mutual option w/$5 million team buyout)

2022: $15 million (mutual option w/$3 million team buyout)

2023: $15 million (mutual option w/$1 million team buyout)

 

This guarantees 3/$50, the frontloading makes the contract less of an albatross if he busts, and if this isn't a mirage, the Sox have the potential to have a middle of the order bat on a 6/$90 deal.

 

A year ago someone would have hit you over the head with a tire iron for this.

 

I love Avi as much as the next guy, but I don't think you do anything going into the offseason. If you get a good offer, deal him, as he has zero history of proving this is sustainable. Would still prefer to roll into 2018 with him in RF. If he keeps hitting, then talk long term. I don't think you cost yourself that much marginal money to wait it out another year. I certainly am not, in any contract situation, paying him $25 million next year, even if it is front loaded.

[Wanne]

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having?

Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to

hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him.

 

I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win

a lot of games.

 

Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects.

 

I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

 

Excellent post....

 

[Bighurt52235]

Obviously, it depends upon how much money it would require to lock up Avi, for the next 5 or 6 years. If it is going to take more than what the Sox would have to pay for a proven free agent, such as Machado, then the money would be better spent on the more established player. I'm assuming that since Avi has a couple of years to go, before free agency, that he would consider signing an extension, to increase what he would make over those 2 remaining years, and acquire some security for himself. A contract that would take him to age 32, would still give him one more shot at a bigger deal, when it expires.

 

One more point, which some of us are overlooking, is the possibility that we haven't yet seen the best of Avi. He has tremendous power. He may end up hitting a lot more home runs and driving in more runs, even at the expense of sacrificing a few points on that impressive batting average.

 

Look, it's always a gamble with any of these players and the huge money that they are paid. However, a reasonable contract would seem like a worthwhile risk.

 

I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Avi might require more money than Manny Machado?

[Heads22]

I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Avi might require more money than Manny Machado?

 

this season has been weird

[greg775]

Did you see that fifth hit by Avi today?? A routine ground ball he hustles it into a hit? With the team in the midst of a miserable season? Yeah he gets paid a lot to hustle. Big deal.

I give him credit. The guy has had an incredible season, fricking incredible. Did you see his postgame interview with Hawk and Stoney? How sheepish a grin and humble??

 

This guy should be a favorite of all Sox fans and 'many' want him traded (some for a so-far flop of a St. Louis catcher taken in the second round). Frankly I'm sad by this attitude. Worse but I don't want to get banned.

Avi baby!

Edited September 15, 2017 by greg775

[greg775]

Glad he's doing well to finish the year because now we know he'll bring back a good player if he gets moved. As always I still recommend the sell high this offseason with Avi

Are you one of those guys that doesn't want to pay anybody? Hell the Sox could easily go that route. The core of our rebuild will be guys we don't have to pay for years. If you don't want to pay anybody (and I suspect JR and Hahn are in that camp) by all means trade Avi. I would assume he will be traded. Yes I am one of those who believe our team counts pennies (even tho we signed Robert for a nice check).

 

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having?

Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to

hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him.

 

I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win

a lot of games.

 

Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects.

 

I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

Post of the year. Great post.

 

Pretty solid take, Lillian.

 

I can't put myself on the trade Avi bandwagon yet. Based on his age, I just don't agree that he won't be a solid contributor when this team is supposed to compete.

Superlative post.

 

1. I don't think the decision to give him an extension needs to be made in December. It can be made in June of 2018 if necessary. And if you've come to the decision you DO want to sign him to an extension in June of 2018, that ideally would tell us he is playing like the 2017 version of Avi, not the 2015 version.

 

2. I'm still not convinced his value is enough for the Sox to move him for value. Everyone in the trade Avi crowd seems to be saying the same thing..."SELL HIGH! HE WON'T COME CLOSE TO THESE NUMBERS AGAIN!!" If that's the case, why would any GM offer anything of value? The two statements totally contradict themselves.

 

3. The biggest problem I have is the idea he doesn't fit with the core. If you believe this isn't Avi and next year he's going to bat .255, that's one thing. I'm not going to be able to change your mind. But if you believe he can duplicate this type of season, but are just worried about how he fits with the "core", I have a major issue with that.

Nice post. I agree especially with No. 2.

 

Obviously, it depends upon how much money it would require to lock up Avi, for the next 5 or 6 years. If it is going to take more than what the Sox would have to pay for a proven free agent, such as Machado, then the money would be better spent on the more established player. I'm assuming that since Avi has a couple of years to go, before free agency, that he would consider signing an extension, to increase what he would make over those 2 remaining years, and acquire some security for himself. A contract that would take him to age 32, would still give him one more shot at a bigger deal, when it expires.

 

One more point, which some of us are overlooking, is the possibility that we haven't yet seen the best of Avi. He has tremendous power. He may end up hitting a lot more home runs and driving in more runs, even at the expense of sacrificing a few points on that impressive batting average.

 

Look, it's always a gamble with any of these players and the huge money that they are paid. However, a reasonable contract would seem like a worthwhile risk.

Another winner of a post.

[LittleHurt05]

Sure, but the time he would be in his expensive bust years would be the point where this team should be adding payroll. A $15 or $20 million a year anchor could really F things up.

 

That's true, I didn't stretch the extension that far in my head. That also may be the time you start extending your other young players on team friendly deals, so there goes more money.

 

It all comes down to the Sox scouting department, do they think this is s legit breakout or will he regress?

[Bighurt52235]

this season has been weird

Lol, GTFO so hard.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

A year ago someone would have hit you over the head with a tire iron for this.

 

I love Avi as much as the next guy, but I don't think you do anything going into the offseason. If you get a good offer, deal him, as he has zero history of proving this is sustainable. Would still prefer to roll into 2018 with him in RF. If he keeps hitting, then talk long term. I don't think you cost yourself that much marginal money to wait it out another year. I certainly am not, in any contract situation, paying him $25 million next year, even if it is front loaded.

This has always made the most sense. It's entirely possible this is a career year for Avi at least according to batting average and BABIP. There is also the possibility that he develops more or in another direction where is is even more valuable. He could develop his power game and get those 25 -30 HR's with a lower BA and BABIP. Then his SLG % and OPS could be higher leading to a higher WAR if he can eek out some more walks and keep his fielding decent . Of course that O swing percentage thing has to improve and that's no small feat ,but I am pretty sure he is trending in the right direction with the fly ball to ground ball ratio. If not someone will correct me.

[soxforlife05]

1. I don't think the decision to give him an extension needs to be made in December. It can be made in June of 2018 if necessary. And if you've come to the decision you DO want to sign him to an extension in June of 2018, that ideally would tell us he is playing like the 2017 version of Avi, not the 2015 version.

 

2. I'm still not convinced his value is enough for the Sox to move him for value. Everyone in the trade Avi crowd seems to be saying the same thing..."SELL HIGH! HE WON'T COME CLOSE TO THESE NUMBERS AGAIN!!" If that's the case, why would any GM offer anything of value? The two statements totally contradict themselves.

 

3. The biggest problem I have is the idea he doesn't fit with the core. If you believe this isn't Avi and next year he's going to bat .255, that's one thing. I'm not going to be able to change your mind. But if you believe he can duplicate this type of season, but are just worried about how he fits with the "core", I have a major issue with that.

 

1. No need to prematurely give him an extension. We already saw it was a mistake with Anderson.

 

2. Because the other GM thinks he will be as good or better in the future? That's the reason any trade gets done. We sold high on Eaton. Why would a GM offer anything of value for him according to your logic? Trades can be a win win for both sides too.

Edited September 15, 2017 by soxforlife05

[soxforlife05]

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having?

Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to

hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him.

 

I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win

a lot of games.

 

Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects.

 

I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

 

It doesn't matter what he did this year. The contract would be paying for his performance over the next 4-5 years not this year. Too many mistakes to count have been made by teams who extend veterans who come out of nowhere with career years like this. No need to cripple the rebuild before it even gets off the ground. If you are going to keep him around make him prove it for another few seasons. If paying players who prove they deserve the money with a long term track record (2-3 seasons) is such a big issue for this club, they don't deserve to be a contender. His body of work is still nothing spectacular and quite mediocre. If another team falls in love with his one good year and we can move him for a good enough return, so be it. No one is saying give him away, but if a team pursues him and is willing to give up the right price, he's gone in my mind.

Edited September 15, 2017 by soxforlife05

[Lillian]

I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Avi might require more money than Manny Machado?

 

No, I am not suggesting that. Since we don't know what kind of contract, an extension would require, I was simply stating that I wouldn't advocate paying him the kind of money that Machado might receive, which could be 10 years, at $30 Million per season, or more. However, if it is something like 6 years, at $17 to $18 million, that seems very reasonable, in today's market for a guy, who is just beginning his prime. A 6 year deal would cover him from age 27 through 32. An extension for Avi should not look like a free agent contract. That is the point of extending a guy, rather than hiring a free agent. The advantage to Avi is that he would increase his earnings, over what arbitration would garner, until he reaches the point where he otherwise would have been a free agent. He would also have the security of a contract, which at the present time does not obligate his employer to anything more than year to year. And finally, he would still be young enough, at 33, to seek one big free agent deal, providing that he stays healthy and productive.

 

Here is the larger point: Let's assume that you trade both Avi and Jose, for more prospects. Alright, now build the heart of the order; 3 through 6. We probably all agree that Jimenez has a really good shot to be a legitimate #3, or clean up hitter. OK, that's one. Who are the other 3 guys? Remember, I see much more value in Moncada being a Raines/Henderson type leadoff hitter, than hitting in the heart of the order. So, are you really confident that Burger, Robert, Rutherford, Sheets, Gillaspie and which ever additional such prospects, whom the Sox might acquire, will yield 3 more hitters like Avi and Jose? By contrast, retaining both of them, makes the task much easier. With Eloy added, they are only one bat short of a very productive middle of the order. Of course, you all know that I think it needs to be a LH bat. LOL.

 

I don't see the logic in trading every prospect who becomes a Star, for more prospects. That seems like a formula for eternal hope, with no actual realization of the dream. At some point, you have to pay your producers. If the goal is to never have to award a decent contract, but rather trade away every productive asset, before he starts earning the big money, I think that represents an unrealistic challenge. The current roster has enough talent to be very competitive, once the youngsters arrive, providing that you keep a few of your already proven players. There are more than sufficient financial resources to accomplish that, with next year's projected modest payroll.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[Lillian]

It doesn't matter what he did this year. The contract would be paying for his performance over the next 4-5 years not this year. Too many mistakes to count have been made by teams who extend veterans who come out of nowhere with career years like this. No need to cripple the rebuild before it even gets off the ground. If you are going to keep him around make him prove it for another few seasons. If paying players who prove they deserve the money with a long term track record (2-3 seasons) is such a big issue for this club, they don't deserve to be a contender. His body of work is still nothing spectacular and quite mediocre. If another team falls in love with his one good year and we can move him for a good enough return, so be it. No one is saying give him away, but if a team pursues him and is willing to give up the right price, he's gone in my mind.

 

Alright, so please provide an example, of what you would consider the "right price" for Avi, in a trade. That would give us something to discuss. It is worth noting that Avi is not really fairly considered a "veteran who came out of nowhere". This was his age 26 season, and he had been very highly regarded, as a young prospect. It appears to be more the case that he has finally begun to realize expectations.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[soxforlife05]

No, I am not suggesting that. Since we don't know what kind of contract, an extension would require, I was simply stating that I wouldn't advocate paying him the kind of money that Machado might receive, which could be 10 years, at $30 Million per season, or more. However, if it is something like 6 years, at $17 to $18 million, that seems very reasonable, in today's market for a guy, who is just beginning his prime. A 6 year deal would cover him from age 27 through 32.

 

I would rather pay him an extra 7-8 mill a season knowing he is for real 2-3 seasons from now than extending him now and ending up with an albatross contract right as the rebuild is getting started. No need for the GM to try to be a hero extending relative unknowns on big money deals with a poor body of work. We don't need hail mary type signings we would make prior to blowing up the team when we had payroll constraints in place already.

Edited September 15, 2017 by soxforlife05

[soxforlife05]

Alright, so please provide an example, of what you would consider the "right price" for Avi, in a trade. That would give us something to discuss. It is worth noting that Avi is not really fairly considered a "veteran who came out of nowhere". This was his age 26 season, and he had been very highly regarded, as a young prospect. It appears to be more the case that he has finally begun to realize expectations.

 

A top 50 prospect for starters. I don't even know what teams would want Avi so it's kind of pointless to discuss at this point. The rumored interest has been pretty minimal.

 

Edit: Only thing that might sway me with signing him now is a major hometown discount (a la Buehrle or Quintana). He kind of does owe it to the Sox who gave him more chances than I've seen any team give a player EVER.

Edited September 15, 2017 by soxforlife05

[Lillian]

A top 50 prospect for starters. I don't even know what teams would want Avi so it's kind of pointless to discuss at this point. The rumored interest has been pretty minimal.

 

Edit: Only thing that might sway me with signing him now is a major hometown discount (a la Buehrle or Quintana). He kind of does owe it to the Sox who gave him more chances than I've seen any team give a player EVER.

 

OK, that is where we really disagree. I would not accept a top 50 prospect for Avi. Blake Rutherford is a #42 ranked prospect, by MLB Pipeline and I certainly would not take someone like him, for Avi. Maybe a top 10 prospect, depending upon the tools. but not some guy who is ranked #40 or 50. May I ask, how do you know what the interest is and what the speculated price might be?

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[Lemon_44]

No, I am not suggesting that. Since we don't know what kind of contract, an extension would require, I was simply stating that I wouldn't advocate paying him the kind of money that Machado might receive, which could be 10 years, at $30 Million per season, or more. However, if it is something like 6 years, at $17 to $18 million, that seems very reasonable, in today's market for a guy, who is just beginning his prime. A 6 year deal would cover him from age 27 through 32. An extension for Avi should not look like a free agent contract. That is the point of extending a guy, rather than hiring a free agent. The advantage to Avi is that he would increase his earnings, over what arbitration would garner, until he reaches the point where he otherwise would have been a free agent. He would also have the security of a contract, which at the present time does not obligate his employer to anything more than year to year. And finally, he would still be young enough, at 33, to seek one big free agent deal, providing that he stays healthy and productive.

 

Here is the larger point: Let's assume that you trade both Avi and Jose, for more prospects. Alright, now build the heart of the order; 3 through 6. We probably all agree that Jimenez has a really good shot to be a legitimate #3, or clean up hitter. OK, that's one. Who are the other 3 guys? Remember, I see much more value in Moncada being a Raines/Henderson type leadoff hitter, than hitting in the heart of the order. So, are you really confident that Burger, Robert, Rutherford, Sheets, Gillaspie and which ever additional such prospects, whom the Sox might acquire, will yield 3 more hitters like Avi and Jose? By contrast, retaining both of them, makes the task much easier. With Eloy added, they are only one bat short of a very productive middle of the order. Of course, you all know that I think it needs to be a LH bat. LOL.

 

I don't see the logic in trading every prospect who becomes a Star, for more prospects. That seems like a formula for eternal hope, with no actual realization of the dream. At some point, you have to pay your producers. If the goal is to never have to award a decent contract, but rather trade away every productive asset, before he starts earning the big money, I think that represents an unrealistic challenge. The current roster has enough talent to be very competitive, once the youngsters arrive, providing that you keep a few of your already proven players. There are more than sufficient financial resources to accomplish that, with next year's projected modest payroll.

Best post I've read on here in awhile.

 

It's mind boggling to me that people want to/would even consider trading a 26 year old all star player hitting his prime and may lead that league in hitting. Like I've said in other posts, Avi is the exact type of guy you build around. I've read some projected lineups for next year with Avi traded and that AAA Gillapsie in the lineup and somehow that' supposed to be better for the Sox.

 

A top 50 prospect fro Garcia, are you kidding me? It seems like Engel and Delmonico are seen as a brighter future for the Sox than Avi. Wow, just wow.

 

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lemon_44

[Soha]

I've been saying for a while they should re-sign him. As they continue to drag their feet and do nothing, his price just keeps going up. Of course, we don't know if Avi doesn't want to talk extension or not. I'd doubt that, but you never know. Rick Hahn's comments about Avi around the trading deadline made me believe he isn't a believer. Or at least he wasn't at that point. I think they're making a mistake with how they are handling him now.

[Soha]

OK, that is where we really disagree. I would not accept a top 50 prospect for Avi. Blake Rutherford is a #42 ranked prospect, by MLB Pipeline and I certainly would not take someone like him, for Avi. Maybe a top 10 prospect, depending upon the tools. but not some guy who is ranked #40 or 50. May I ask, how do you know what the interest is and what the speculated price might be?

 

While I agree with you about not being eager to trade Avi, I don't think Blake is a good example. Blake feels like his stock has regressed quite a bit and I doubt he will be in the top 100 after the re-rankings are done.

[Lemon_44]

My ideal lineup in about 2-3 years would have Eloy, Robert and Garcia as the starting OF. Anderson, Moncada, and Abreu in the IF. Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez in the rotation. If players stay on their projections, that's a top level team.