Trade avi in the offseason?

[Lillian]

While I agree with you about not being eager to trade Avi, I don't think Blake is a good example. Blake feels like his stock has regressed quite a bit and I doubt he will be in the top 100 after the re-rankings are done.

 

That is precisely my point, regarding prospects. They are prone to having diminished expectations. A top prospect one day and a total bust, the next. There is risk with every player, but I'd rather put my money on a guy who has proven it, to some degree, which Avi certainly has, than a guy who has never faced a Big League pitcher.

[Lillian]

This discussion brings up a larger point, which when addressed, may shed more light on exactly how to evaluate a guy like Avi.

Ted Williams used to say that it takes a hitter about 1,000 at bats, in the Majors, to figure it out. That was in a very different era, where pitchers threw pretty much fastballs, curves and change ups, and the fastballs were not routinely in the mid 90's. Moreover, bullpens consisted of guys who weren't good enough to be starters. Then too, starters were expected to go the distance, unless they simply didn't have it, on that day. That gave hitters a chance to see the same guy 3 to 5 at bats, in a game. Today, you usually get 2, maybe 3 shots at the starter, and then you typically face a couple of the 3 to 4 different flame throwers, out of the pen. There is simply no preparation, in a young hitter's career, for that kind of challenge.

 

We may have to temper our expectations, regarding how fast these young prospects can make the adjustment to the Major Leagues. Oh sure, there are the exceptions, the Harpers and Trouts, and in the previous generation, the Griffey Jr's and A-Rods, but they are indeed the exception, not the rule.

 

The faster a player is brought up, the greater the challenge. Not only is he young and not yet physically mature, but he has not had an opportunity to slowly make the adjustment to the increasing difficultly of the caliber of pitching, which he faces at each progressive level.

He comes from having faced pitchers with limited arsenals, to an almost overwhelming challenge of facing consistent "heat" and a much wider diversity of pitches. Where in the lower levels does he face Major League quality cutters, sliders, both 2 and 4 seam fastballs, incredibly deceptive change ups and more? It is his first exposure to that kind of challenge.

 

Hitting is a skill. It does not take great athleticism, but it requires an awful lot of practice. Oh sure, there are pitching machines that are capable of simulating every kind of pitch, but it is not the same as facing a pitcher. The skill required takes reps, and those reps can't be repeated in the lower levels of professional baseball, much less in high school, or even college.

 

If Ted Williams was right, it is safe to say that it should now take considerably more than 1,000 at bats, or 2 seasons, for most hitters to really "figure it out". In that context, maybe it's a little harsh and unfair to criticize Avi, because he didn't do, what he is now doing, when he was 24 and 25 years old, in his first full seasons in the Majors. Then too, there was that lost season to the shoulder injury, which likely stalled his progress.

 

There are several guys, who have taken a while to "figure it out". Players like Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak may be more common now, than they were in previous eras. Avi has actually developed at a reasonable pace. After all, this was only his age 26 season.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[Lillian]

My ideal lineup in about 2-3 years would have Eloy, Robert and Garcia as the starting OF. Anderson, Moncada, and Abreu in the IF. Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez in the rotation. If players stay on their projections, that's a top level team.

 

I agree with you. If you add 1, or 2 left handed bats, at either DH or 3RD base, or even if Collins fulfills his promise, you have the makings of a very potent offense.

[Chicago White Sox]

Avi looks better this year no doubt, but he still has a .397 BABIP. That is the highest in baseball this year and a huge red flag. Let me put it this way, the highest career BABIP for any modern player with 3,000 PA's is Joey Votto with a .353. That's a 44 point differential between Avi and the best ever. I don't care if you believe he's finally "figured it out" this season, regression is most certainly coming, the only queation is how much.

 

So what does that leave us with if the batting average starts to fall? Amongst 52 qualified OFs, Avi ranks 31st for ISO, 49th for BB%, & 25th for K%. What stands out there? Simply put, a bunch of singles are fueling his overall offensive line. And while his baserunning numbers have improved this year, his defense in RF is still below average. What happens if he gains weight and/or loses speed as he ages? Both his baserunning & defense would be negatively impacted and he could quickly become a mediocre player.

 

I too want to believe that Avi is suddenly a 4 WAR player, but I have zero faith he can maintain this level of production long term and I think he's too risky of a player to commit big money to when we have a system filled with OF talent and enough money to sign a true impact free agent if need be. I think Hahn should trade him this offseason while his value should be at an all time high.

[southsider2k5]

Such risk could be mitigated by a shorter term deal with mutual options. Something like:

 

2018: $25 million

2019: $10 million

2020: $10 million

2021: $15 million (mutual option w/$5 million team buyout)

2022: $15 million (mutual option w/$3 million team buyout)

2023: $15 million (mutual option w/$1 million team buyout)

 

This guarantees 3/$50, the frontloading makes the contract less of an albatross if he busts, and if this isn't a mirage, the Sox have the potential to have a middle of the order bat on a 6/$90 deal.

 

Just as an FYI, he is about to hit his 5th year contract which is typically in the 7-10 million range on the high end.

[oldsox]

As of today, Avi has the second highest BA in all of baseball. .333.

[Dick Allen]

Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing.

[SoxAce]

Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing.

 

It was Willy Garcia (who I still personally like alot).. but your point stands.

[Lillian]

Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing.

 

I think you are exactly correct. He has obviously made a concerted effort to be a line drive hitter. If he alters his launch angle, he could even surpass that 25 - 30 homer mark, in which case, a .285 to .300 average would be fine. Either way, he should be able to remain a productive middle of the order hitter.

[Chicago White Sox]

Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing.

Why do you think he'll suddenly hit more HRs?

[Chicago White Sox]

I think you are exactly correct. He has obviously made a concerted effort to be a line drive hitter. If he alters his launch angle, he could even surpass that 25 - 30 homer mark, in which case, a .285 to .300 average would be fine. Either way, he should be able to remain a productive middle of the order hitter.

His LD % is actually down this year. And you don't sign players to big contracts because you think they can make a launch angle adjustment. This idea that he'll simply sacrifice some average for power is absrurd. His average is going to regress regardless of any other changes. He most definitely needs to improve his power numbers to remain a productive middle of the lineup hitter.

[Dick Allen]

Why do you think he'll suddenly hit more HRs?

Because he has already started to hit more. He's missed many games. Health is never a guarantee, but if he was healthy for this entire season, 25 homers isn't very crazy.

 

Last homestand they had listed some of his homers on the scoreboard. He has hit 8 up until then that went at least 423 feet. He has enormous power. A slight tweak to his launch angle and who knows what happens.

 

I was reading an article about Justin Turner and his turnaround from nothing to all star. They said he spent a winter with Marlon Byrd. The first thing I thought about after reading that was he was juicing, but it all was about launch angle. Avi hits the ball hard as often as just about anyone. If he ever becomes a flyball hitter, he will be a star.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing.

 

I can't stop but get confused why people this Avi is a power hitter.. Why do they? Because he is tall and bulky? The dude has 17 homers.. May not even crack 20 this year (he's 26) and people still think he could hit 30? He is what he is. A singles hitter. Let's stop assuming and hoping he's all of a sudden going to become some power hitter you need to backout the outfield for

[Lillian]

Now you guys have gone beyond where I feel qualified to make an assertion. This entire business of launch angles, and BABIP is a nuance, about which I claim no expertise. Please enlighten me, from an objective perspective, if that's possible. Just how realistic is it, for a guy who has demonstrated his ability to barrel up the ball, to alter his approach, in an attempt elevate his hits, and thus hit more home runs? Can it be significantly accomplished and at what expense? Isn't it logical that a player's batting average will suffer? There does not seem to be a consensus on this subject, at least not on this board.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

Because he has already started to hit more. He's missed many games. Health is never a guarantee, but if he was healthy for this entire season, 25 homers isn't very crazy.

 

Last homestand they had listed some of his homers on the scoreboard. He has hit 8 up until then that went at least 423 feet. He has enormous power. A slight tweak to his launch angle and who knows what happens.

 

I was reading an article about Justin Turner and his turnaround from nothing to all star. They said he spent a winter with Marlon Byrd. The first thing I thought about after reading that was he was juicing, but it all was about launch angle. Avi hits the ball hard as often as just about anyone. If he ever becomes a flyball hitter, he will be a star.

His FB rate has improved this year, but his HR/FB remains the same as 2016 and is far from special. I'm not arguing a change in launch angle wouldn't do wonders for him, but I'm definitely not paying him 4 WAR OF money because of a BABIP fueled season and hopes that maybe a launch angle change comes to fruition.

 

If you want to hold him another season and see what happens fine, but extending him right now seems incredibly foolish IMO.

[Lemon_44]

Now you guys have gone beyond where I feel qualified to make an assertion. This entire business of launch angles, and BABIP is a nuance, about which I claim no expertise. Please enlighten me, from an objective perspective, if that's possible. Just how realistic is it, for a guy who has demonstrated his ability to barrel up the ball, to alter his approach, in an attempt elevate his hits, and thus hit more home runs? Can it be significantly accomplished and at what expense? Isn't it logical that a player's batting average will suffer? There does not seem to be a consensus on this subject, at least not on this board.

Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story.

[Lillian]

Because he has already started to hit more. He's missed many games. Health is never a guarantee, but if he was healthy for this entire season, 25 homers isn't very crazy.

 

Last homestand they had listed some of his homers on the scoreboard. He has hit 8 up until then that went at least 423 feet. He has enormous power. A slight tweak to his launch angle and who knows what happens.

 

I was reading an article about Justin Turner and his turnaround from nothing to all star. They said he spent a winter with Marlon Byrd. The first thing I thought about after reading that was he was juicing, but it all was about launch angle. Avi hits the ball hard as often as just about anyone. If he ever becomes a flyball hitter, he will be a star.

 

I assume that this was the article: http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...snap-story.html

[Lillian]

Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story.

 

LMAO. But seriously, I try to keep an open mind, even if these kinds of metrics are not part of my long experience as a baseball fan.

[he gone.]

I can't stop but get confused why people this Avi is a power hitter.. Why do they? Because he is tall and bulky? The dude has 17 homers.. May not even crack 20 this year (he's 26) and people still think he could hit 30? He is what he is. A singles hitter. Let's stop assuming and hoping he's all of a sudden going to become some power hitter you need to backout the outfield for

 

There have been a few posts in this thread I really like. That's level headed and I like it.

 

Listen, he's still young'ish & I like this Avi more than the other version but my best case scenario is that he plugs a hole on this team at LF/RF/DH for the next 4-5 years as a league average, or slightly above league average player. It leaves one less hole to have to fill via FA or prospects. Another way to look at it is that if he's doing well, you don't have to rush a Robert or Rutherford in a couple years. They can learn down on the farm and come up and be ready.

 

I'd expect something like a .260avg with 15-20 dingers moving forward. There's still value there though with his legs and his hot streaks (he's always had hot streaks in him)

[bmags]

I think we got too used to having every player locked up for 5 years. Again, just let him play out. If he's really this good, we'll have money to sign him.

[Lillian]

The problem with waiting is that he could get too expensive. There are obviously 3 possible directions for his career path:

1) He regresses and is not worthy of a spot on the roster

2) He progresses and adds more power to his offense

3) He remains pretty much what he was, this season.

 

If you believe that outcomes 2 and 3 are the most probable, you try to sign him to a medium term, perhaps 5 or 6 year extension, at a cost commenserate with this year's performance. If he is not willing to accept that kind of deal, you pass, let him reach free agency, make him a qualifying offer and take the draft pick, if he declines it.

If he you get either outcome 2 or 3, going forward, you are fine. The only risk is outcome #1. I'd rather take that gamble, than wait till he can command a big free agent contract, where the risk would be too great.

 

Remember, once he reaches free agency, management can no longer offer the enticement of increasing a player's salary, over what he would earn in arbitration, and they have lost control. Therefore, it's as simple as "to the highest bidder". It's no wonder many owners are so reluctant to sign expensive free agents.

They know what all of us know, that you are paying for past performance, just when a player is entering the years when he will start to regress.

 

Ultimately, it is up to the coaches and the organization to make an astute and realistic evaluation of a player and his performance, in order to make a reasonable assumption regarding whether he will regress, improve or stay the same. So many factors enter into that assessment. They should know most about a player's physical tools, mental toughness, dedication, work ethic and all of the other intangible, as well as tangible aspects of his make up.

 

We have to trust that they will make a reasonably wise and prudent decision.

Edited September 15, 2017 by Lillian

[bmags]

The problem with waiting is that he could get too expensive. There are obviously 3 possible directions for his career path:

1) He regresses and is not worthy of a spot on the roster

2) He progresses and adds more power to his offense

3) He remains pretty much what he was, this season.

 

If you believe that outcomes 2 and 3 are the most probable, you try to sign him to a medium term, perhaps 5 or 6 year extension, at a cost commenserate with this year's performance.

If he you get either outcome 2 or 3, going forward, you are fine. The only risk is outcome #1. I'd rather take that gamble, than wait till he can command a big free agent contract, where the risk would be too great.

 

Remember, once he reaches free agency, management can no longer offer the enticement of increasing a player's salary, over what he would earn in arbitration, and they have lost control. Therefore, it's as simple as "to the highest bidder". It's no wonder many owners are so reluctant to sign expensive free agents.

They know what all of us know, that you are paying for past performance, just when a player is entering the years when he will start to regress.

 

Ultimately, it is up to the coaches and the organization to make an astute and realistic evaluation of a player and his performance, in order to make a reasonable assumption regarding whether he will regress, improve or stay the same. So many factors enter into that assessment. They should know most about a player's physical tools, mental toughness, dedication, work ethic and all of the other intangible, as well as tangible aspects of his make up.

 

We have to trust that they will make a reasonably wise and prudent decision.

 

With arb and everything we currently have a probably 30 million committed to 2018. Avi, in this incredible season, is still probably only a 3.5 WAR player. A 3.5 WAR corner outfielder without big power heading into his 30s is not going to be too expensive unless offense becomes impossible to find in the next 2 years, which I doubt.

 

[Dam8610]

Avi looks better this year no doubt, but he still has a .397 BABIP. That is the highest in baseball this year and a huge red flag. Let me put it this way, the highest career BABIP for any modern player with 3,000 PA's is Joey Votto with a .353. That's a 44 point differential between Avi and the best ever. I don't care if you believe he's finally "figured it out" this season, regression is most certainly coming, the only queation is how much.

 

So what does that leave us with if the batting average starts to fall? Amongst 52 qualified OFs, Avi ranks 31st for ISO, 49th for BB%, & 25th for K%. What stands out there? Simply put, a bunch of singles are fueling his overall offensive line. And while his baserunning numbers have improved this year, his defense in RF is still below average. What happens if he gains weight and/or loses speed as he ages? Both his baserunning & defense would be negatively impacted and he could quickly become a mediocre player.

 

I too want to believe that Avi is suddenly a 4 WAR player, but I have zero faith he can maintain this level of production long term and I think he's too risky of a player to commit big money to when we have a system filled with OF talent and enough money to sign a true impact free agent if need be. I think Hahn should trade him this offseason while his value should be at an all time high.

 

The BABIP is still very concerning, but other than this year, he did put up a full season BABIP of .320 and a half season BABIP of .344 (also in 23 games in 2012 for the Tigers, he had a BABIP over .400). Let's assume he has "figured it out", meaning his K ratio will stay in the 20% range and BB ratio will float between 5-7%, as well as contact types staying similar. At a BABIP of .320, his line is something like .280/.330/.470, and at a BABIP of .344, his line is something like .300/.350/.500. So, if his BABIP gains are even somewhat sustainable, we're looking at a .800-.850 OPS OF with (according to Fangraphs anyway) a near league average glove. He could get to 4 WAR this year, but the above described player is a 2-3 WAR player moving forward. I think for the right deal, you move him, but I also think he's exactly the type of player that benefits from a rebuild and makes a team get back to contention quicker.

[Dam8610]

I can't stop but get confused why people this Avi is a power hitter.. Why do they? Because he is tall and bulky? The dude has 17 homers.. May not even crack 20 this year (he's 26) and people still think he could hit 30? He is what he is. A singles hitter. Let's stop assuming and hoping he's all of a sudden going to become some power hitter you need to backout the outfield for

 

He's hit 17 HRs in 121 games, including a stretch from the all star break to September where he didn't hit a single HR (likely due to the hand injury he suffered having an effect on his power, as well as the missed time due to said hand injury and a separate knee injury). I think 25-30 HR potential is in that bat if he can be healthy for 162 games. He won't hit more than 15-20 in a season, though, If he can't keep himself healthy and in the lineup.

 

[OmarComing25]

Update on xStats numbers: .296/.346/.493 with a .337 BABIP

 

I still don't think we'd get much for him in the offseason but if the right deal was there I'd absolutely pull the trigger. Extending him seems premature too though so I'd wait and see, even if he has another good year next year he still wouldn't be too expensive.

 

If he puts up somewhere around the line above next year then you can think about extending him, though the number of years would be much more important IMO than the AAV.

Edited September 15, 2017 by OmarComing25