Shohei Otani is likely coming to the USA

[GenericUserName]

How long is the recovery time from the surgery? If he's going to end up missing most of next season why not just wait it out at that point?

 

They said recovery is 10-12 weeks, so he would probably be ready by spring training.

[Bob Sacamano]

Actually, before he goes through the Japanese posting process, the MLB and NPB have to AGREE to a posting process, as the current one expired with the end of our season. This is an underreported component of this story.

 

One of the reporters on a Japanese baseball podcast I follow said that Yomiuri (the newspaper) published some leaked proposals from the MLB, and they all look substantially worse for the NPB than the previous system, which is right on line with the way the trend has gone. The consensus opinion over there seems to be that these proposals are simply not good enough and the NPB should push back, but the podcaster specifically opined that he wasn't sure the NPB has the backbone to do so. But, based on Manfred's public opinions about non-draft eligible new players, if the NPB DID push back much, the MLB seems unlikely to cave, even if it meant there was no system in place for the foreseeable future.

 

If no agreement is in place, the only way Otani (this is the correct spelling, despite the fact that his jersey says 'Ohtani' -- according to a Japanese intern here at work, Japanese baseball takes the correctness of the name on the jersey much less seriously than American baseball, meaning that the players choose whatever they want to be on there, with many choosing first names or even nicknames. Several players have added an 'h' after a stressed 'O' apparently to encourage foreigners to actually pronounce their names correctly. Yos***omo Tsutsugo(h) is another example of a star who adds an 'h.' The correct way to pronounce 'Otani' is with the emphasis on the first syllable \OH-tuh-knee\ as opposed to the way we all seem to want to say it with the emphasis on the second syllable \oh-TAH-knee\) can come to America this offseason is if the Fighters decide to grant him unconditional free agency with no compensation at all. This, obviously seems extremely unlikely to occur, BUT

 

That same podcaster personally believes that the Fighters WOULD grant him free agency, because they are specifically trying to brand themselves as a place for young superstars to choose to play specifically because they can be trusted to be lenient when said superstars want to jump to the MLB. Furthermore, those leaked proposals all call for posting fees to, essentially, equal about 15% of the contract that the player ultimately signs. So, in Otani's case, where the absolute maximum he could earn is something like $8mm, and likely far less, the Fighters don't stand to gain much anyway -- almost certainly less than a million bucks.

 

It's all very interesting.

 

Quoting this because it is now relevant.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/nego...ree-agency.html

Edited November 2, 2017 by soxfan2014

[GenericUserName]

Quoting this because it is now relevant.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/nego...ree-agency.html

 

I hope he doesn't come over until he's 25 that way whatever team gets him has to pay a ton for him instead of getting him for cheap. It will be just about in our contention starts, so it might free up a free agent that can help us.

[Dam8610]

I hope he doesn't come over until he's 25 that way whatever team gets him has to pay a ton for him instead of getting him for cheap. It will be just about in our contention starts, so it might free up a free agent that can help us.

 

I'd rather see him come to the White Sox at a bargain basement price this offseason than that scenario.

[Eminor3rd]

Quoting this because it is now relevant.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/nego...ree-agency.html

 

Yeah, this is a major new development. Was talking to some people over at NPB reddit a bit about it this past weekend. Potentially changes everything, because I personally don't think Manfred has made any indication that he cares at all whether or not Otani gets here, so I don't see the MLB as heavily inclined to cave.

[southsider2k5]

Otani now has an agent

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insi...season-question

[southsider2k5]

Getting an agent may push fixing the posting process along.

 

http://nypost.com/2017/11/07/why-caa-is-th...i-otani-needed/

[Eminor3rd]

Looks like Yoshihisa Hirano is going to be an unrestricted free agent also. He's the closer on a bad team. I'll have to go back and watch some of his appearances if we're linked to him.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[jamesdiego]

There have been rumors that he would prefer to be part of a rebuilding effort rather than joining an established power, but nobody really knows if that means he’d pick, say, the Twins over the Dodgers.

 

You don't say..

Hahn needs to fully inform the kid on his thinking that the Sox will have the best hitting and pitching prospects 3 years in a row. There isn't a future more brighter than ours. He can grow with it.

 

 

he understands he’ll make plenty of money through endorsements, and that what is foremost in his mind is competing at the highest level.

 

 

The Sox being only able to pay 400k compared to others means nothing when he can probably get hundreds of millions through endorsements. And he'll be getting his huge contract through MLB soon enough anyways.

 

Also, emphasize to Otani that the Sox are the ones who have the ability and knowledge to keep his body healthy and strong to play both sides of the ball. And hell, make Tadahito an assistant coach.

[ptatc]

How long is the recovery time from the surgery? If he's going to end up missing most of next season why not just wait it out at that point?

It's easy recovery. He had a posterior impingement, likely either scar tissue or a bone chip. He'll be ready for Spring Training. This is a "clean up" type surgery.

[Eminor3rd]

If I remember correctly the Sox were one of the teams not to have sent anyone to see him pitch this year. That can't bode well.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[Dam8610]

If I remember correctly the Sox were one of the teams not to have sent anyone to see him pitch this year. That can't bode well.

 

Maybe they were satisfied with what they saw on film or expected him to chase a max bonus? The more that comes out about Otani, the more he seems like a perfect fit for the White Sox and their contention window.

[Dick Allen]

If I remember correctly the Sox were one of the teams not to have sent anyone to see him pitch this year. That can't bode well.

Considering what they can offer, I don't think they would need a scout to tell them he would be worth it. KW only saw tape of Iguchi.

[Bob Sacamano]

Considering what they can offer, I don't think they would need a scout to tell them he would be worth it. KW only saw tape of Iguchi.

 

I was going to say I don't think they need to see him live to see how good he is. I'm sure they are interested and feel as though he may not be a top priority maybe? It should be a relatively quiet off-season other than possibly receiving offers for Abreu and Avi, a merry-go-round of waiver claims, minor league signings, etc. so I feel like they could focus time on trying to bring in Otani.

Edited November 8, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Eminor3rd]

I don't think they necessarily need to see him as much as I would think they'd want to send a message and begin to create a relationship with him, which I have no doubt the other teams were trying to do.

[Dick Allen]

I don't think they necessarily need to see him as much as I would think they'd want to send a message and begin to create a relationship with him, which I have no doubt the other teams were trying to do.

I don't know how much of a relationship is built sending a team of people over there to watch him play. If they have a shot, they will do what they did with Tanaka, meet with him and give him a presentation. I think the odds are overwhelming he plays somewhere else. Of course I also utimately believe he will not be playing in the US in 2018.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think they necessarily need to see him as much as I would think they'd want to send a message and begin to create a relationship with him, which I have no doubt the other teams were trying to do.

 

Knowing Japanese culture a minimal amount, I could see this actually being more important than most things.

[Eminor3rd]

Sherman now reporting that the MLB and NPB have a "tentative" agreement in place to extend the previous posting rules on more year, though nothing is final and the MLBPA has not yet been notified:

 

http://nypost.com/2017/11/08/mlb-has-tenta...ne-hurdle-left/

[GenericUserName]

Sherman now reporting that the MLB and NPB have a "tentative" agreement in place to extend the previous posting rules on more year, though nothing is final and the MLBPA has not yet been notified:

 

http://nypost.com/2017/11/08/mlb-has-tenta...ne-hurdle-left/

 

I think the biggest problem was the MLBPA didn't want Otani to get screwed by having to leave money on the table, but once its made clear that he is willing to do that and doesn't care if his team gets more money than he does, everything will be resolved. What is interesting if how this will effect other Japanese players that might want to come over. If the previous deal is just extended a year and the next deal will have the percentage formula, NPB teams can probably get more now than a percentage of the small international caps.

[Dam8610]

I think the biggest problem was the MLBPA didn't want Otani to get screwed by having to leave money on the table, but once its made clear that he is willing to do that and doesn't care if his team gets more money than he does, everything will be resolved. What is interesting if how this will effect other Japanese players that might want to come over. If the previous deal is just extended a year and the next deal will have the percentage formula, NPB teams can probably get more now than a percentage of the small international caps.

 

The 15-20% thing would apply to players 25 and over who would be eligible for MLB contracts as well.

[GenericUserName]

The 15-20% thing would apply to players 25 and over who would be eligible for MLB contracts as well.

 

But not if they are international free agents after their 9th year (I think thats how it goes, correct me if I'm wrong.) So for the top guys who would get service time when they are 19 or 20, they would become free agents when they are lik 29, so there is only like a 4 year for them to get money from the player leaving. And even then, 20% at that point might be worth less than what they could get for a young, high potential guy right now where a team would be willing to pay the higher posting to have more cheap control. So it might not be worth the risk of the player not getting them as much money later for them to keep the player. I could also be off on all of this; I have a pretty rudimentary knowledge of NPB signing procedures.

[Dick Allen]

Here is what teams can offer him:

 

Texas Rangers — $3,535,000

New York Yankees — $3,250,000 Minnesota Twins — $3,245,000 Pittsburgh Pirates — $2,266,750 Miami Marlins — $1,740,000 Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500 Philadelphia Phillies — $900,000 Milwaukee Brewers — $765,000 Arizona Diamondbacks — $731,250 Baltimore Orioles — $660,000 Boston Red Sox — $462,000 Tampa Bay Rays — $440,500 Atlanta Braves – $300,000 Chicago Cubs – $300,000 Chicago White Sox – $300,000 Cincinnati Reds – $300,000 Houston Astros – $300,000 Kansas City Royals – $300,000 Los Angeles Dodgers – $300,000 Oakland Athletics – $300,000 St. Louis Cardinals – $300,000 San Diego Padres – $300,000 San Francisco Giants – $300,000 Washington Nationals – $300,000 Detroit Tigers — $159,500 Los Angeles Angels — $150,000 New York Mets — $150,000 Toronto Blue Jays — $50,000 Cleveland Indians — $10,000 Colorado Rockies — $10,000

[Bob Sacamano]

Here is what teams can offer him:

 

Texas Rangers — $3,535,000

New York Yankees — $3,250,000 Minnesota Twins — $3,245,000 Pittsburgh Pirates — $2,266,750 Miami Marlins — $1,740,000 Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500 Philadelphia Phillies — $900,000 Milwaukee Brewers — $765,000 Arizona Diamondbacks — $731,250 Baltimore Orioles — $660,000 Boston Red Sox — $462,000 Tampa Bay Rays — $440,500 Atlanta Braves – $300,000 Chicago Cubs – $300,000 Chicago White Sox – $300,000 Cincinnati Reds – $300,000 Houston Astros – $300,000 Kansas City Royals – $300,000 Los Angeles Dodgers – $300,000 Oakland Athletics – $300,000 St. Louis Cardinals – $300,000 San Diego Padres – $300,000 San Francisco Giants – $300,000 Washington Nationals – $300,000 Detroit Tigers — $159,500 Los Angeles Angels — $150,000 New York Mets — $150,000 Toronto Blue Jays — $50,000 Cleveland Indians — $10,000 Colorado Rockies — $10,000

 

Nice summary DA. I think the White Sox will make a nice pitch to him but I'm not going to get my hopes up. Would be interesting to see if an NL team would offer him a spot in the OF 3-4 games a week and pitch every 5th day.

Edited November 9, 2017 by soxfan2014

[LittleHurt05]

Here is what teams can offer him:

 

Texas Rangers — $3,535,000

New York Yankees — $3,250,000 Minnesota Twins — $3,245,000 Pittsburgh Pirates — $2,266,750 Miami Marlins — $1,740,000 Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500 Philadelphia Phillies — $900,000 Milwaukee Brewers — $765,000 Arizona Diamondbacks — $731,250 Baltimore Orioles — $660,000 Boston Red Sox — $462,000 Tampa Bay Rays — $440,500 Atlanta Braves – $300,000 Chicago Cubs – $300,000 Chicago White Sox – $300,000 Cincinnati Reds – $300,000 Houston Astros – $300,000 Kansas City Royals – $300,000 Los Angeles Dodgers – $300,000 Oakland Athletics – $300,000 St. Louis Cardinals – $300,000 San Diego Padres – $300,000 San Francisco Giants – $300,000 Washington Nationals – $300,000 Detroit Tigers — $159,500 Los Angeles Angels — $150,000 New York Mets — $150,000 Toronto Blue Jays — $50,000 Cleveland Indians — $10,000 Colorado Rockies — $10,000

 

That's a scary number for the other 29 teams, given everything else they have going for them.

[Dick Allen]

That's a scary number for the other 29 teams, given everything else they have going for them.

Yes, the only question would be would they truly let him do both, especially if they are in win now mode. .