Shohei Otani is likely coming to the USA

[Bob Sacamano]

While I agree with this point, I’m not sure it really matters when you’re talking about a player of his reputation and a $300k signing bonus. They’ve certainly seen enough tape of him to confirm that he’s worth $300k. More likely than not though the front office simply doesn’t think he’ll accept such a small bonus when other teams can offer several million more and don’t think it’s worth wasting the time/resources. I think that would be pretty foolish as it’s not like we’re going to have an overly active winter. Defintiely worth the Hail Mary shot IMO.

 

What's the Rangers situation looking like? I know they have higher amount to spend on him but I'm unsure of their DH situation. Is Choo the primary DH on that team?

 

Edit: just looked into it. Seems to be a lot of variables (trading Profar, who is out of options, deciding if Calhoun will come up at some point early on, if Gallo is the 1B or not, etc.)

Edited November 15, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

While I agree with this point, I'm not sure it really matters when you're talking about a player of his reputation and a $300k signing bonus. They've certainly seen enough tape of him to confirm that he's worth $300k. More likely than not though the front office simply doesn't think he'll accept such a small bonus when other teams can offer several million more and don't think it's worth wasting the time/resources. I think that would be pretty foolish as it's not like we're going to have an overly active winter. Defintiely worth the Hail Mary shot IMO.

 

The point is to make an impression on HIM, not to have him make an impression on us.

[Bob Sacamano]

Is it also possible that JR wouldn't want to pay the $20 million posting fee if he did sign with us? Aren't the Sox paying Robert this year?

[Dick Allen]

Is it also possible that JR wouldn't want to pay the $20 million posting fee if he did sign with us? Aren't the Sox paying Robert this year?

Considering what they would have to pay him, and what kind of revenue he would generate just from Japan, $20 million is something JR would love to pay.

[Bob Sacamano]

Considering what they would have to pay him, and what kind of revenue he would generate just from Japan, $20 million is something JR would love to pay.

 

I would think so too.

[Kalapse]

I don't care what any damn fluff piece article says about Shohei not caring about money. 300k vs 3-8 mil is a HUGE difference, and it is the difference between being financially sound for your entire life. This kid could blow his arm out and then it is over. He won't be coming here for 300k. I'd love to live in fantasy land where it happens, but it aint happening.

 

However, I think a HUGE indicator of there being a chance would be if the Sox hired Tadahito iguchi. Iguchi is looking to get into the managerial game, and he is beloved by the Sox. Once they sign him to a position, then we can start talking. Until then, I'm not holding my breath.

Keep in mind also he's earned over $5M total the last 3 years playing for the Ham Fighters, about $2.5M last year. While salaries in Japan aren't what they are in the MLB he hasn't been making a pittance playing in a major, professional league.

[Bob Sacamano]

It would awesome if he signs with the Sox but I'm going to predict Rangers.

[Bob Sacamano]

Twins voided the contract of one of their international signings. He didn't pass his physical. The agreement was for a $3 million bonus.

Edited November 15, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Is it also possible that JR wouldn't want to pay the $20 million posting fee if he did sign with us? Aren't the Sox paying Robert this year?

 

Yes, but without the tax hit as that would have already been paid.

[Dam8610]

It would feel like a longshot in every possible way:

 

1) One of the worst teams in baseball

2) Weren't among the teams originally thought to be interested

3) A team that doesn't have a sexy ballpark, fanbase or history.

 

What exactly is going to draw him here? Sure it's possible...but it feels like a 1 in 1000 chance at best.

 

He doesn't seem to care about money and I've read that he's stated that he doesn't want to go to an established team. Combine those two factors, which scream White Sox, with the fact that the White Sox can afford him the opportunity to try to make it as a two way player (SP/DH) as well or better than any team in baseball, and that he'd still be in a major market in Chicago, it starts to make sense.

[Dam8610]

#1 is that we don't even appear to be trying. We haven't been scouting him at all at his starts.

 

He had one total pitching appearance this year due to injury. Also, no one is "trying" at this point, "trying" would be posting the $20 million fee to negotiate with him.

[southsider2k5]

He had one total pitching appearance this year due to injury. Also, no one is "trying" at this point, "trying" would be posting the $20 million fee to negotiate with him.

 

Everyone is "trying". Teams are trying to make an impression on the guy anyway possible. They are trying to figure out what the guy really wants in an MLB City and trying to sell that to his camp in anyway possible.

 

He hasn't even been posted yet, so the fee hasn't even started to come into play.

[Bob Sacamano]

Everyone is "trying". Teams are trying to make an impression on the guy anyway possible. They are trying to figure out what the guy really wants in an MLB City and trying to sell that to his camp in anyway possible.

 

He hasn't even been posted yet, so the fee hasn't even started to come into play.

 

While true, I doubt he's thinking, "This team didn't come see me. They must not really want me." If teams are negotiating with him, they clearly want him. I don't think it's as much of an impact as you are making it to be.

[Dam8610]

Everyone is "trying". Teams are trying to make an impression on the guy anyway possible. They are trying to figure out what the guy really wants in an MLB City and trying to sell that to his camp in anyway possible.

 

He hasn't even been posted yet, so the fee hasn't even started to come into play.

 

If "everyone" is trying, that would include the White Sox.

[GenericUserName]

While true, I doubt he's thinking, "This team didn't come see me. They must not really want me." If teams are negotiating with him, they clearly want him. I don't think it's as much of an impact as you are making it to be.

 

If I'm the White Sox and we sit down and he asks why we didn't come see him play if we were interested I say that we already saw everything we needed to from tape to know he is going to be a star. We could have sent someone out to watch, but why waste our scouts time when they can be scouting guys were unsure about so they can help us win a championship.

[GenericUserName]

I don't care what any damn fluff piece article says about Shohei not caring about money. 300k vs 3-8 mil is a HUGE difference, and it is the difference between being financially sound for your entire life. This kid could blow his arm out and then it is over. He won't be coming here for 300k. I'd love to live in fantasy land where it happens, but it aint happening.

 

However, I think a HUGE indicator of there being a chance would be if the Sox hired Tadahito iguchi. Iguchi is looking to get into the managerial game, and he is beloved by the Sox. Once they sign him to a position, then we can start talking. Until then, I'm not holding my breath.

 

Don't hold me to this, but I'm pretty sure he already got a job managing in Japan. It was announced like days after he retired.

[southsider2k5]

I know people want this guy, but there hasn't been a single sign that the White Sox are in play here. Not a single one. Even in hypothetical land, anything the White Sox can offer, someone else can offer more of. They don't have cap space, they don't have tradition, they aren't a contender, they don't have a large Japanese community, they don't have much of a tradition of having Japanese players when compared to other teams, etc.

 

At this point he is a unicorn as far as the White Sox are concerned.

[southsider2k5]

If I'm the White Sox and we sit down and he asks why we didn't come see him play if we were interested I say that we already saw everything we needed to from tape to know he is going to be a star. We could have sent someone out to watch, but why waste our scouts time when they can be scouting guys were unsure about so they can help us win a championship.

 

I know people think this, but this isn't reality. Teams scouted the s*** out of a guy like Justin Verlander who has pitched for over a decade in MLB, but when he came out on the trade block, teams still flocked to see him.

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox can offer the guy $300k plus the posting fee.

 

Scouting him is nice, but not really necessary. Everyone knows he's worth the max the Sox can offer. With a guy like Verlander, he has a lot of miles and how he was currently throwing was of the upmost importance, considering age and contract.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I know people want this guy, but there hasn't been a single sign that the White Sox are in play here. Not a single one. Even in hypothetical land, anything the White Sox can offer, someone else can offer more of. They don't have cap space, they don't have tradition, they aren't a contender, they don't have a large Japanese community, they don't have much of a tradition of having Japanese players when compared to other teams, etc.

 

At this point he is a unicorn as far as the White Sox are concerned.

 

Besides at-bats most likely if he wants to try the 2-way player thing.

[southsider2k5]

Besides at-bats most likely if he wants to try the 2-way player thing.

 

Plenty of teams can offer his bat ABs. This is false.

 

In fact being in the AL would cost him ABs because of the DH. If he started and the Sox didn't use the DH, you don't get the DH back once a reliever comes in. The Sox would either have relievers hitting or need potentially multiple pitch-hitters in a game if they went without the DH. If he went 6 innings, that is still 2ABs that need to be covered.

 

If the latter were the case, they would need to carry a bigger bench than they have to cover the extra possibilities.

[Dick Allen]

Plenty of teams can offer his bat ABs. This is false.

 

In fact being in the AL would cost him ABs because of the DH. If he started and the Sox didn't use the DH, you don't get the DH back once a reliever comes in. The Sox would either have relievers hitting or need potentially multiple pitch-hitters in a game if they went without the DH. If he went 6 innings, that is still 2ABs that need to be covered.

 

If the latter were the case, they would need to carry a bigger bench than they have to cover the extra possibilities.

The theory is he can DH on his off days. Having him actually play the field in between starts may be a problem.

 

I don't think the White Sox have a chance in hell of getting this guy either. But if he is already giving up $100 million, what's a few more?

Edited November 15, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

The theory is he can DH on his off days. Having him actually play the field in between starts may be a problem.

 

I don't think the White Sox have a chance in hell of getting this guy either. But if he is already giving up $100 million, what's a few more?

 

This. Do NL teams really want to risk sticking him in the OF? Or contending teams guaranteeing him at bats? Probably not.

Edited November 15, 2017 by soxfan2014

[GenericUserName]

I know people think this, but this isn't reality. Teams scouted the s*** out of a guy like Justin Verlander who has pitched for over a decade in MLB, but when he came out on the trade block, teams still flocked to see him.

 

Oh I know they would definitely still scout him and I do think that if we thought we had a shot we would have been there, but if we do get a meeting with him that is how I would play the reason for us not being there.

[OmarComing25]

Plenty of teams can offer his bat ABs. This is false.

 

In fact being in the AL would cost him ABs because of the DH. If he started and the Sox didn't use the DH, you don't get the DH back once a reliever comes in. The Sox would either have relievers hitting or need potentially multiple pitch-hitters in a game if they went without the DH. If he went 6 innings, that is still 2ABs that need to be covered.

 

If the latter were the case, they would need to carry a bigger bench than they have to cover the extra possibilities.

In the NL he can bat on days when he pitches, get pinch hit opportunities on his days off and maybe start in the field one game a week or so, because there's no way teams are going to want him making max effort throws from the outfield on the days right after he pitches and the day before he pitches. However he hasn't played in the outfield since 2014 so I doubt any team is going to have him do it anyway.

 

In the AL he can DH 3-4 games per week without having to tax his arm in the field. That will add up to more opportunities to bat than he can get in the NL unless an NL team is willing to use him irresponsibly which I don't see happening.