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Does Abreu fit into Sox longer term plans?


southsider2k5

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http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-so...long-term-plans

 

He’s the center of it all for now, but how does Jose Abreu fit into the White Sox long-term plans?

 

The veteran first baseman blasted two more home runs on Tuesday night as he continued his best season since his rookie year. Abreu launched home runs Nos. 32 and 33 for the White Sox, who fell to the Los Angeles Angels 9-3 at Guaranteed Rate Field.

 

Not only has Abreu provided outstanding all-around play, he’s taken on additional leadership responsibilities and serves as a role model for many of his young teammates. But whether his age — he turns 31 in January — will affect Abreu’s chances at sticking around through the entirety of the White Sox rebuild remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

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The Sox should extend him this offseason honestly. I would buy out his last 2 years of arbitration and offer him $70 MM over the next 4 years. It takes you up through his age 34 season and if his defense slips, you can move Burger, Gillaspie, Sheets, etc. there and Abreu to DH. Sox have always prioritized production from 1B, Abreu should not and will be no different.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 02:34 PM)
Just like Avi, open to moving him if the deal is right, but definitely don't extend him now.

 

The front office can't back off the "laser focus" of the rebuild.

 

I agree about waiting on Avi. I would support an Abreu extension though.

 

 

It's risky to follow too closely to any plan. Plenty of guys won't work out so it's nice to start with a sure thing.

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QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:26 PM)
I agree about waiting on Avi. I would support an Abreu extension though.

 

 

It's risky to follow too closely to any plan. Plenty of guys won't work out so it's nice to start with a sure thing.

 

Abreu is about as solid of an investment as you can make in MLB. After four years you have a really nice and narrow window of what you are going to get from the guy. He isn't a guy that depends on speed or defense for what he contributes, so he doesn't really have a skill set that you worry about eroding a lot in this age bracket. It is hard to call a 4 or 5 year deal "safe", but Abreu is a pretty safe bet.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:27 PM)
If they're going to extend him they should do it now - pay more in the next 2 years and in return have to pay for fewer years at the end of his career.

Ya, I'm actually all for this depending on the rate of course. Obviously if you get blown away by a trade offer you make a deal but as a ton of others have already said, it sure seems like Jose is worth more to the Sox than anyone else.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:30 PM)
Ya, I'm actually all for this depending on the rate of course. Obviously if you get blown away by a trade offer you make a deal but as a ton of others have already said, it sure seems like Jose is worth more to the Sox than anyone else.

Someone said 4/$70-ish in a thread a week or two ago and I'd be totally ok with that. That's a raise over the next 2 years and cost certainty for both sides.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:27 PM)
If they're going to extend him they should do it now - pay more in the next 2 years and in return have to pay for fewer years at the end of his career.

 

The big problem is that his next two years are arb years and I can't see the Sox giving him a contract that respects those historicals, but still be able to front load a deal.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:37 PM)
The big problem is that his next two years are arb years and I can't see the Sox giving him a contract that respects those historicals, but still be able to front load a deal.

If some odd principle of "respecting historicals" is their biggest priority, then they should trade him this winter for the best price they can get. He won't have higher value than he will with 2 years left under contract coming off a dominant season and we can always use the playing time to try other guys out. If such a rule is that important, then we can sign him to a 4-5 year deal after 2019 if he's still hitting then, or go after a comparable player on the FA market.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 04:27 PM)
If they're going to extend him they should do it now - pay more in the next 2 years and in return have to pay for fewer years at the end of his career.

100% agree. 4 years/$75M sounds about right to me. 2019 to 2021 should all be competitive years and I think he'll remain an elite bat during that period, even if he ends up at DH ultimately.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 28, 2017 -> 08:59 AM)
100% agree. 4 years/$75M sounds about right to me. 2019 to 2021 should all be competitive years and I think he'll remain an elite bat during that period, even if he ends up at DH ultimately.

 

I don't think there's much of a market for either Garcia or Abreu but I would prefer extending Abreu personally due to the fact he has a longer track record. Garcia, I think they try to deal him this off-season but ultimately hold onto him playing the wait and see game until July when they either decide to trade him or extend him.

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QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Sep 28, 2017 -> 12:03 PM)
Nelson Cruz got 4/57 coming off some huge years, I still don't see any team giving an aging DH 4/75

 

The DH/1B market is pretty dead. I think a 4/60 deal makes a lot more sense, especially when you consider you are getting two arb years in that math.

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He's a student of the game and a hard worker. I seem him following almost a Pujols type of path.. that may be lofty in expectations.

 

Pujols:

27 327/429/568 32HR 103RBI

28 357/462/653 37HR 116RBI

29 327/443/658 47HR 135RBI

30 312/414/596 42HR 118RBI

 

31 299/366/541 37HR 99RBI

32 285/343/516 30HR 105RBI

33 258/330/437 17HR 64RBI

34 272/324/466 28HR 105RBI

 

 

Abreu:

 

27 317/383/581 36HR 107RBI

28 290/347/502 30HR 101RBI

29 293/353/468 25HR 100RBI

30 308/359/560 33HR 102RBI

 

 

Looking at those stats? Even a top 10 greatest of all time bat in Albert fell off a bit after age 30. I think if he wants to take a friendly deal then we take it. If not, maybe even let him play out the next two years and then extend him. I want him back even at diminished returns at least at DH, but I don't think there's a rush.

 

 

Even if he's batting .260 with 20HR I think there is good value there with how he approaches the game.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 28, 2017 -> 12:18 PM)
The DH/1B market is pretty dead. I think a 4/60 deal makes a lot more sense, especially when you consider you are getting two arb years in that math.

Ercarnacion got 3/$60M coming off a similar season at age 33. Abreu is going to get an AAV of at least $17.5M and maybe even closer to $20M.

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Abreu can change games with his bat in a way only 50 or so players can. Among that group Abreu is probably in the top half in pure hitting prowess. At some point defense, position, value (getting real sick of the nebulous "value" obsession that has infected baseball)...all that s*** stops mattering because you just need a guy who can flat out hit. Abreu takes the little round ball and deposits in a place very far away where nobody can catch it. Without a guy like that winning a title, hell winning anything, is almost impossible.

 

Abreu will get paid if he continues this. The White Sox would be very wise to lock him up long term.

Edited by Alexeihyeess
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at some point the rebuilding process must also focus on a winning and competitive team. You don't ever reach that level if you trade every productive player for "prospects." Avi Garcia was seen as a prospect and has now shown his talent. He is committed to continue his high level of play. Plus Jose Abreu is in a league of his own in my opinion. You need that team leader and high production. The veteran presence he provides can only help make those around him better

Edited by elrockinMT
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Sounded like Hahn will start to discuss extensions in the middle of '18, with obviously only interest to extend Abreu and Garcia

 

Abreu is the leader of this team and can still hopefully produce 2-4 more high level years, with him being a UFA in '20 there is 0 need to extend him now

 

Garcia, just 26, still has to repeat success to show '17 wasn't a fluke, but I'd be thrilled with him as the long term RFer if he can prove that

 

Next year's OD lineup of SS Anderson, 2B Moncada, 1B Abreu, RF Garcia, LF Delmonico, DH Davidson, 3B Sanchez, C Smith, and CF Leury looks like they can surprise a lot of people, especially in a weaker division...Not to mention the probable call-ups of LF Jimenez and C Collins next year along with CF Robert, 3B/1B Burger in '19

 

Next year's success in the W column really relies on pitching, which is off to a bad start with Rodon likely missing a month or so, but the rotation starting off '18 should feature Giolito, Fulmer, Lopez, and Shields (along with a cheap vet FA) with Rodon coming back in May and Kopech up in the summer

 

19's rotation should be Kopech, Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, and Hansen thus setting up '19 to be a major year and start of dominance for the ChiTown Sox

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