The Sale Trade

[Bob Sacamano]

1) Players salaries continue to rise 2) payroll cap + luxury tax penalties allow less wiggle room than teams once had in their team payroll 3) more GM's declaring untouchables 4) players appear to be making their debuts at a younger age 5) GM's are looking to extend players before they peak and through their peak year's to avoid paying top dollar for free agents.

 

These things lead be to believe the trend is beginning to change with more emphasis on prospects or at least keeping their top guys. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have shown in recent years their reluctance to trade their most coveted prospects which is the opposite of how those teams operated in the past.

 

The Sale trade was so unique that it probably was only going to happen with Boston. There were so many things that had to go right in order for the trade to happen.

 

Here's an interesting hindsight thought. If Boston drafts Fulmer instead of Benintendi, do you think the Sale trade happens? Personally, I don't think it happens because having Benintendi made it easier for Boston to part with Moncada.

 

On a separate issue all together. I give you and Balta mad props for how you both have handled the rebuild. I know you guys weren't fans of the rebuild and I think it's pretty damn cool you both stayed rather chill about it all season long instead of going off the rails. I think when Balta returned over the summer he had said he purposely stayed away so he didn't drag the board down, or something along those lines. Well done gents.

 

Yeah for sure. Mad props to those two for sure.

 

[Balta1701]

On a separate issue all together. I give you and Balta mad props for how you both have handled the rebuild. I know you guys weren't fans of the rebuild and I think it's pretty damn cool you both stayed rather chill about it all season long instead of going off the rails. I think when Balta returned over the summer he had said he purposely stayed away so he didn't drag the board down, or something along those lines. Well done gents.

Dude, I f***ing love this. I flat out hated Rick Hahn's moves the last 2 years. I was gone for a month because I was teaching a geology field camp in western Montana for a month and took a good long vacation after that ended. I'm still nervous about trusting Rick Hahn, but the times I stayed away for that reason were in 2015 and 2016. No one wanted to hear me say it was going to fall apart during the first month of 2016 and no one wanted to hear me say I told you so.

[BlackSox13]

Dude, I f***ing love this. I flat out hated Rick Hahn's moves the last 2 years. I was gone for a month because I was teaching a geology field camp in western Montana for a month and took a good long vacation after that ended. I'm still nervous about trusting Rick Hahn, but the times I stayed away for that reason were in 2015 and 2016. No one wanted to hear me say it was going to fall apart during the first month of 2016 and no one wanted to hear me say I told you so.

My bad dude. Not sure where the hell I got that from, was probably thinking back to the FA signings and shark bait trade. DOH!!!

 

Sorry but I have to take some props back from ya since you love the rebuild.

[BlackSox13]

Balta, now I remember a bit since you refreshed my memory. Yeah, you f***ing hated the Melky signing. I think you and I went back and forth a few times about him last year or the year before. Ah, good times!

[Jose Abreu]

I still think the trade was a player light. Sale is that good.

As do I. There was just no third piece there to get excited about.

[Jack Parkman]

I think it was a player light as well, but you can't ask for much more than the best hitting and pitching prospect in the game. Anything more would have probably been seen as highway robbery by the Sox. The Sawx would have been crucified by other teams if they gave up more than that, despite Sale's incredible value. Personally, I think that the Sox should have probably received Benintendi as well. That is how valuable Sale was to me that offseason. The Sox were never going to get fair value for Sale.

Edited October 4, 2017 by Jack Parkman

[brett05]

The trend seems to be towards the devaluing of prospects in trades. It is taking more and more guys to get big deals done now. I don't know if the trend continues or not, but it will be interesting to see. I want to say this was the first time ever that the #1 overall guy was dealt, and then you added another top 10 guy in Kopech.

At the time of the trade Kopech was not a top ten guy. He was a top 40 guy

[credezcrew24]

I think it was a player light as well, but you can't ask for much more than the best hitting and pitching prospect in the game. Anything more would have probably been seen as highway robbery by the Sox. The Sawx would have been crucified by other teams if they gave up more than that, despite Sale's incredible value. Personally, I think that the Sox should have probably received Benintendi as well. That is how valuable Sale was to me that offseason. The Sox were never going to get fair value for Sale.

 

With all the hype Benintendi gets on this board and elsewhere. It's pretty interesting how Benintendi had almost 3x the plate appearances as Moncada this year but his bWAR and fWAR are only about 1 number higher.

[oldsox]

There were people out there that were plenty upset about Tatis, thinking he might be a pretty prospect, I certainly wasn't one of them.

 

And I don't agree with Greensox on anything but I think it's completely fair to say that the Sox didn't know what they had in Tatis. I mean, they clearly didn't.

Then why did they give him such a nice signing bonus? Can't remember the amount, but it was more than most of those DR guys got. Someone must have liked him. Why not let him play a year in Rookie League before making the decision to trade him.

 

Preller probably knew him better than we did. The whole thing stinks. That's why Hahn doesn't want to open up about it. It smacks of incompetence.

 

Who on the Sox Front Office, besides Hahn, was consulted on this trade? Seems like a logical question to me. But Preller comes along and probably insisted on Tatis, so why would Hahn say No? Let me check him out. Oh, you'll take Eric Johnson off our hands, too? Good deal. And, And I'll only have to pay half of Sheilds' salary?? What a deal.

[oldsox]

Continuing: I wish one of our Admins had the opportunity to interview Paddy on the Tatis matter.

[SCCWS]

With all the hype Benintendi gets on this board and elsewhere. It's pretty interesting how Benintendi had almost 3x the plate appearances as Moncada this year but his bWAR and fWAR are only about 1 number higher.

 

Seeing a lot of Benintendi in New England, I would not trade him straight up for Moncada. I still think Moncada has the higher ceiling with power but Benintendi can do it all right now. He can hit, can play LF or CF, he can run( still erratic) and has a solid arm. He carried Boston until Devers and Nunez arrived in August. I love Moncada's potential, but Benintendi already shows production. Kid has a sweet swing.

[chitownsportsfan]

Seeing a lot of Benintendi in New England, I would not trade him straight up for Moncada. I still think Moncada has the higher ceiling with power but Benintendi can do it all right now. He can hit, can play LF or CF, he can run( still erratic) and has a solid arm. He carried Boston until Devers and Nunez arrived in August. I love Moncada's potential, but Benintendi already shows production. Kid has a sweet swing.

 

Lolwut? You realize Benitendi finished with a lower wrc+ than Moncada right? And that he is a year older and is a mediocre corner OF? There is no GM in baseball that even considers that trade.

[bmags]

Lolwut? You realize Benitendi finished with a lower wrc+ than Moncada right? And that he is a year older and is a mediocre corner OF? There is no GM in baseball that even considers that trade.

 

Read that people think even with Park adjustments left fielders get screwed at Fenway with d metrics.

[OmarComing25]

Read that people think even with Park adjustments left fielders get screwed at Fenway with d metrics.

This is part of the reason why I wish defensive metrics had a home/away component.

[ptatc]

I still think the trade was a player light. Sale is that good.

There is no way to get equal value for a HOF talent lefty pitcher. The return will always be light because teams just won't give that much up. The White Sox just need to hope that Moncada and Kopech become center pieces on a team with a long run of playoff teams. That's the only way it will be worth it.

[chitownsportsfan]

Read that people think even with Park adjustments left fielders get screwed at Fenway with d metrics.

 

well regress him +3 runs defensively and he's at 2.5 fwar over a full season. I'm not s***ting on the guy, he's a fine young player if he was on the Sox I'd be thrilled to have him. That said, he's not a power hitting 2B prospect with elite speed and raw power like Moncada. There is a reason Moncada was #1 and then came up and put up .9 fWAR in 50 odd games at 22.

 

Moncada is just as good now (positional adjustment matters) and has an upside much higher.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

He was more than a lottery ticket, and he "just happened to explode" such that within 2 months of the trade he was a top 100 prospect and rising fast.

 

Within 2 months? I earliest list I can find him on was in January of 2017, 6 months after the trade and still before he had played a single game in the US. And Keith Law was the only one to put him on any list. Baseball America did not even have him listed in the Padres top 10 prospects coming in to 2017. "Prospects 1500" ranked him as the Padres 37th best prospect coming in to 2017.

 

 

To say "just happened to explode" is putting it extremely mildly.

 

[soxforlife05]

It never made sense to give up anything for Shields. Was an overpaid washed up gas can then. Still is now. Would’ve given up a 30 year old AAAA player for him at most. There was no market for a guy who gives up home runs to Bartolo f’ing Colon. One of the worst trades in recent memory but for some reason people who see their fandom as an extension of the front office will defend it. And look very foolish doing it.

Edited October 5, 2017 by soxforlife05

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Decided to sift through the James Shields trade thread from 2016.....Found a few nuggets....

 

 

Hopefully people don't start doing the why we gave up Tatis like why we have with thompson for frazier

 

I don't even want to think this way, but Shields is 10x more valuable the trade asset that he was with the Padres now that they're paying him. Sox could lose the next 20 games and turn around and trade him for a package better than EJ/Tatis Jr.

 

They didn't give up anything of note. Tatis is a long shot to make the majors by 2020 and EJ was done here and had no value. They got a solid #3-#4 starter that eats innings and he costs around $10 million per season. That's what those guys cost. He's also an asset moving forward because of how much the Padres are playing. The trade was a no brainer. Complaining about it is in fact quite stupid.

 

And they will sign many other players similar to Tatis in a month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There were some actually bummed about losing FTJ though...

 

Rosenthal confirms. Sucks we had to give up Tatis

 

While Tatis is a long-shot, he is still a very talented long-shot for his age and someone we committed valuable international FA resources to and who has received pretty positive early reviews. I don't consider that a nobody. If it was just Johnson, I'd have less to complain about, but Tatis was what this org had to make strides on (actually getting meaningful contributions from its international front and while he was 5 years down the road, it takes a long time to do things like this) and it takes time to build up a system (something we continue to not do). And this is coming from someone who is all for leveraging prospects for trading and filling other needs.

 

For the record, I think EJ will be better in SD than Shields was. I also think Shields won't be any better than Latos or Gonzalez. And I think it's dumb to give up a young guy like Tatis Jr for a fringe starter.

 

 

And this guy absolutely nailed it...

 

Watch Shields become a Danks-like Albatross and Tatis Jr. become an uber prospect. Sox gonna Sox.

 

 

And just for transparency, I was on the record saying I was fine with the trade.

[SCCWS]

well regress him +3 runs defensively and he's at 2.5 fwar over a full season. I'm not s***ting on the guy, he's a fine young player if he was on the Sox I'd be thrilled to have him. That said, he's not a power hitting 2B prospect with elite speed and raw power like Moncada. There is a reason Moncada was #1 and then came up and put up .9 fWAR in 50 odd games at 22.

 

Moncada is just as good now (positional adjustment matters) and has an upside much higher.

 

 

He played CF for two weeks in August and the times I saw him he was excellent in CF. In LF, the Fenway wall requires an adjustment. I saw an interview w Jim Rice who said it took him 2 years to figure it out. As I posted, Moncada has a higher ceiling for power but he also strikes out a ton. , but early signs are this kid is a 25HR/100 RBI guy who will also steal 25+ bases. He also strikes out at a % about 1/2 of Moncada. I think Benetendi is a perfect #3 hitter. hopefully we say the same thing about Moncada next October.

[bmags]

Chisoxfn is the one I always think of with the Tatis trade, and I think he just nailed the process fail of it. It's not knowing that Tatis Jr. was going to become a great prospect, it was being against trading away a young position player prospect with power for someone just there to plug holes.

 

I do find it interesting the speed at which many on the board loudly railed against any writer that wrote about how Tatis Jr was an up and coming great prospect, and they just hated the white sox, to finally accepting that an 18 year old in AA with a 20hr/20sb season is a really good prospect and saying "who could have known!"

[Jerksticks]

Would anybody trade Kopech for Sale straight up right now? Probably everybody.

 

But there's a realistic chance that not many would make the same trade at the end of 2018. Sure Sale will be coming off a CY and is ridiculous, but if Kopech keeps dominating, he might have similar peripherals and come at 600k per year.

 

I know that's optimistic but it's not ludicrous. Just crazy to think about their value rankings could change as early as the end of 2018 or 2019.

 

Glad we traded Sale when we did.

 

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Would anybody trade Kopech for Sale straight up right now? Probably everybody.

 

But there's a realistic chance that not many would make the same trade at the end of 2018. Sure Sale will be coming off a CY and is ridiculous, but if Kopech keeps dominating, he might have similar peripherals and come at 600k per year.

 

I know that's optimistic but it's not ludicrous. Just crazy to think about their value rankings could change as early as the end of 2018 or 2019.

 

Glad we traded Sale when we did.

 

I agree. His value would only go down after that point.

[southsider2k5]

Would anybody trade Kopech for Sale straight up right now? Probably everybody.

 

But there's a realistic chance that not many would make the same trade at the end of 2018. Sure Sale will be coming off a CY and is ridiculous, but if Kopech keeps dominating, he might have similar peripherals and come at 600k per year.

 

I know that's optimistic but it's not ludicrous. Just crazy to think about their value rankings could change as early as the end of 2018 or 2019.

Glad we traded Sale when we did.

 

We saw it work out for the Sox by holding on to Q, and if you want to argue that the return was a player light as has been said, you pretty much are saying the White Sox should have risked taking Chris Sale to the regular season to get that extra player. We also don't know that Boston wouldn't have moved on with the huge need for a front line pitcher and offered the same or similar package for a player like Archer. Then what? To me that the counterfactuals of needing another player for Sale come with really big risk factors.

 

I think the Sale trade was done at the right time when you look at the risks of holding out for more.

[Soxbadger]

Only way the Sox could have done better is if the Yankees knew theyd be good and started a bidding war with Red Sox. The problem was at the time I believe NYY thought they werent making the playoffs this year.