White Sox unlikely to chase big free agents

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Yes. I'm positive of it.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/10...ertson.amp.html

Isn't that what just about every free agent says when signing with a new team? Bottom line, money talks. If the White Sox offer Reed as much or more than the rest of the league there's a great chance he signs. This isn't a Carlos Beltran situation trying to grab a ring before hanging it up. In that type of situation I could see it being about more than the money.

[LittleHurt05]

Also, for those whining about the JR being cheap. See a 19 year old kid named Luis Robert whom the Sox just invested a total of 52M in.

 

The highest contract in White Sox history was $68 million for Jose Abreu. Only 3 MLB teams have not signed a larger contract than that.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

With the arms we have in our system the last thing I am worried about is getting eight figure bullpen arms on long term contracts. Odds are 100% that some of the arms we are looking at as starters now are going to wash out and will be our bullpen arms when we actually are competitive again. There is zero reason to rush into a (at best) second tier closer at those prices.

That's your opinion and I have mine. I don't consider a 4 year $36MM contract a big commitment for a guy that should be a solid late inning bullpen piece for the next 4 years. He's only 28 turning 29 years old next month after all.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The highest contract in White Sox history was $68 million for Jose Abreu. Only 3 MLB teams have not signed a larger contract than that.

This is a great point. Posters are worried about spending $36MM for a closer but have illusions of "saving" money to make a big splash next offseason? Who exactly are they thinking the Sox will sign next year as a "big" free agent that will cost less than $75MM even? Even with all their prospects, there are a lot of holes on this roster now and in the coming years. I don't see management going all in on a Donaldson or Keuchel type let alone Machado or Harper. Even with all their savings, I think they will sign 4 or 5 guys in the $15-50MM range before they sign a single player in the $75-250MM range.

[BlackSox13]

The highest contract in White Sox history was $68 million for Jose Abreu. Only 3 MLB teams have not signed a larger contract than that.

How many of those teams invested 52M in a 19 year old prospect?

[southsider2k5]

That's your opinion and I have mine. I don't consider a 4 year $36MM contract a big commitment for a guy that should be a solid late inning bullpen piece for the next 4 years. He's only 28 turning 29 years old next month after all.

 

For a guy that is going to give a last place team around 60 innings? It is a gigantic waste of money, when we have vastly superior arms in the system waiting to get sorted out at the major league level.

[Kyyle23]

I will agree that it is very surprising the percentage of fans who think there is about a 0% failure rate on a rebuild. Hopefully it all works out. They do have a few really good looking prospects.

 

I don’t think anyone on Soxtalk believe there is a zero percent chance of failure. They are just excited to try something that has recently shown success with patience as opposed to trying the same thing over and over and getting the same middling result

[GreatScott82]

How many of those teams invested 52M in a 19 year old prospect?

Good point. Times are changing. I feel like that Jose Abreu record deal will be shattered next offseason.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

For a guy that is going to give a last place team around 60 innings? It is a gigantic waste of money, when we have vastly superior arms in the system waiting to get sorted out at the major league level.

Last place? The division is terrible after the Indians. No reason they shouldn't finish third or possibly better if the Twins fall back. For everyone writing off 2018, how many people picked the 2017 Twins to make the playoffs? Not saying it's likely but if you stabilize the bullpen you never know. From September 1 on after trading nearly half the roster in the previous two months, the White Sox were 15-15. And this was with a garbage bullpen and no Eloy or Kopech.

[greg775]

I will agree that it is very surprising the percentage of fans who think there is about a 0% failure rate on a rebuild. Hopefully it all works out. They do have a few really good looking prospects.

Good take. I'm telling you fans who think this way. Please look inside and decide whether you are acting like a "wait til next year" fan. That's a dangerous way to be a fan cause you'll be waiting for decades.

 

This is a great point. Posters are worried about spending $36MM for a closer but have illusions of "saving" money to make a big splash next offseason? Who exactly are they thinking the Sox will sign next year as a "big" free agent that will cost less than $75MM even? Even with all their prospects, there are a lot of holes on this roster now and in the coming years. I don't see management going all in on a Donaldson or Keuchel type let alone Machado or Harper. Even with all their savings, I think they will sign 4 or 5 guys in the $15-50MM range before they sign a single player in the $75-250MM range.

Face facts. Sox won't be signing any big time free agents. If we're lucky, we'll sign some veterans for good but not great money and hope they fill a leadership role like a Zobrist has and like a Robertson did for the Yanks. Sox have a ton of work to do before they are serious contenders -- can you say bullpen anybody? I wish we'd get some more coaches the caliber of Coop? IMO he's the only one who is elite.

[southsider2k5]

Last place? The division is terrible after the Indians. No reason they shouldn't finish third or possibly better if the Twins fall back. For everyone writing off 2018, how many people picked the 2017 Twins to make the playoffs? Not saying it's likely but if you stabilize the bullpen you never know. From September 1 on after trading nearly half the roster in the previous two months, the White Sox were 15-15. And this was with a garbage bullpen and no Eloy or Kopech.

 

You also can't ignore the 4 win month, the still lack of a bullpen, nor the fact that we may well going into 2018 without 2017's two best hitters.

[Eminor3rd]

Agree to disagree. I don't view next year as a waste for Reed on the Sox. Would be nice to have a steady bullpen arm at the back end to close games for a young team full of unknowns in the pen. If one of those unknowns emerges as a potential closer in the next couple years you can always slide Reed back to his setup role. 4 years/$36MM is not a large commitment by today's standards (assuming that's his price tag). Consider the White Sox traded 4 relievers just last season alone (Swarzak, Jennings, Robertson, Kahnle), there is plenty of room to sign a couple this offseason and a couple next. I don't think signing Reed this offseason precludes them from acquiring a couple more next winter.

 

It never seems like it, but those little things add up. We've seen this time run up against its spending walls several times. AN extra dead $8mm somewhere can make a big difference. I'm not saying Reed would necessarily be that guy, but if you start making moves LIKE these, you're going to run into one or two. It's just what happens to relievers, in general.

 

And for what? A pretty generic above average reliever. Again, you can get that guy any year -- why not wait until you know that's how you want your money spent?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

You also can't ignore the 4 win month, the still lack of a bullpen, nor the fact that we may well going into 2018 without 2017's two best hitters.

So you agree the bullpen should be addressed then? And you really think the Sox are trading Avi and/or Abreu? I think that's a long shot.

[southsider2k5]

So you agree the bullpen should be addressed then? And you really think the Sox are trading Avi and/or Abreu? I think that's a long shot.

 

There is zero reason to spend on a bullpen for this team right now, especially when you have your future bullpen arms in the system right now at about 5% of the cost of Addison Reed. Spending eight figures on a bullpen arm for the 2018 White Sox is like tricking out your Yugo.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

It never seems like it, but those little things add up. We've seen this time run up against its spending walls several times. AN extra dead $8mm somewhere can make a big difference. I'm not saying Reed would necessarily be that guy, but if you start making moves LIKE these, you're going to run into one or two. It's just what happens to relievers, in general.

 

And for what? A pretty generic above average reliever. Again, you can get that guy any year -- why not wait until you know that's how you want your money spent?

Don't we already know the bullpen is the most glaring weakness on this roster? I don't think Birmingham or Charlotte are exactly overflowing with power bullpen arms either. I don't see how this weakness will be addressed internally. I guess my bigger issue is that I view rebuilding as a gradual process of which includes signing free agents over an extended period of time rather than waiting for that "exact" window of contention.

[Eminor3rd]

I hope your post is true.

 

What about my post do you HOPE is true? I'm not talking about what the Sox are going to do, I'm talking about your claim that posters want to "save money for JR." It is not a matter of hope -- it IS true that no one thinks that. Why do you keep saying it?

 

The reason people come down so hard on you sometimes, greg, isn't because you have unpopular opinions -- it because it doesn't seem like you read the posts you respond to. You're constantly putting words in people's mouths, and when they respond to correct you, you still go on pretending they didn't.

[witesoxfan]

The more this all comes together, the more the idea of a guy like Swarzak coming back here as the closer makes sense. Short term, should be cheaper, will be looking to build his value while providing a stable arm in the back of the pen. You give him like a 1 year, $7 million deal and if he proves he's "legit," then you can either look to extend him or trade him. If he bombs, it's $7 million, not $36 million.

[Bob Sacamano]

The more this all comes together, the more the idea of a guy like Swarzak coming back here as the closer makes sense. Short term, should be cheaper, will be looking to build his value while providing a stable arm in the back of the pen. You give him like a 1 year, $7 million deal and if he proves he's "legit," then you can either look to extend him or trade him. If he bombs, it's $7 million, not $36 million.

 

I would love to see Swarzak back on like a 2-year deal. Toss him in the closer's role and if he pitches like last year, a team could look to buy him at a nice price.

[witesoxfan]

I would love to see Swarzak back on like a 2-year deal. Toss him in the closer's role and if he pitches like last year, a team could look to buy him at a nice price.

 

I initially thought about a 2 year deal, but I think that works against what both sides are trying to work towards. Swarzak will be trying to build his value so he can get at least one big contract in his career - he is 32, afterall, even if some relievers tend to last a bit longer - while the White Sox will try and keep as much off their payroll as possible heading into 2018 without it being a surefire piece for the future. If Swarzak comes out and has another 2 WAR season as a reliever, then you can look to give him maybe a 3/$30 contract so he can be your closer for the intermediate term, but if not, then there's no big loss.

[Eminor3rd]

Don't we already know the bullpen is the most glaring weakness on this roster? I don't think Birmingham or Charlotte are exactly overflowing with power bullpen arms either. I don't see how this weakness will be addressed internally. I guess my bigger issue is that I view rebuilding as a gradual process of which includes signing free agents over an extended period of time rather than waiting for that "exact" window of contention.

 

Yes, we know it's a glaring weakness, but we also know that the roster very likely doesn't have enough to compete even if that weakness disappeared.

 

I agree that adding players shouldn't all happen at once, but you have to look at each player/player type individually. Relievers have notoriously short windows of effectiveness and are the easiest commodity to purchase at any given time, so that's not the type of free agent you want to buy gradually. A relatively young position player at an up-the-middle position, or perhaps a position that is weak organizationally? That's a different story.

[Balta1701]

I initially thought about a 2 year deal, but I think that works against what both sides are trying to work towards. Swarzak will be trying to build his value so he can get at least one big contract in his career - he is 32, afterall, even if some relievers tend to last a bit longer - while the White Sox will try and keep as much off their payroll as possible heading into 2018 without it being a surefire piece for the future. If Swarzak comes out and has another 2 WAR season as a reliever, then you can look to give him maybe a 3/$30 contract so he can be your closer for the intermediate term, but if not, then there's no big loss.

Do you think Swarzak would just say "this is my one shot" and accept 3/$15 or so?

[southsider2k5]

The more this all comes together, the more the idea of a guy like Swarzak coming back here as the closer makes sense. Short term, should be cheaper, will be looking to build his value while providing a stable arm in the back of the pen. You give him like a 1 year, $7 million deal and if he proves he's "legit," then you can either look to extend him or trade him. If he bombs, it's $7 million, not $36 million.

 

I wonder if teams will be willing to throw more at Swazak in terms of years? Not much of a history, but a big year last year might do it.

[southsider2k5]

Do you think Swarzak would just say "this is my one shot" and accept 3/$15 or so?

 

He should. The odds are more than fair that the historical Swarzak shows up again next year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Yes, we know it's a glaring weakness, but we also know that the roster very likely doesn't have enough to compete even if that weakness disappeared.

 

I agree that adding players shouldn't all happen at once, but you have to look at each player/player type individually. Relievers have notoriously short windows of effectiveness and are the easiest commodity to purchase at any given time, so that's not the type of free agent you want to buy gradually. A relatively young position player at an up-the-middle position, or perhaps a position that is weak organizationally? That's a different story.

But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

[ptatc]

I don’t think anyone on Soxtalk believe there is a zero percent chance of failure. They are just excited to try something that has recently shown success with patience as opposed to trying the same thing over and over and getting the same middling result

Only the Astros have really shown success without spending a great deal of money on at least one or two players.

 

The Cubs paid Lester around 150 million because they didn't draft pitching.