White Sox unlikely to chase big free agents

[Balta1701]

But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

I'd rather throw $20 million at 4 guys who have been cut loose or released or injured in recent seasons than throw $100 million at those relievers this year.

 

I could readily be talked into throwing big money at a reliever or two next offseason. My goal would still be to find this year's Swarzak/Morrow - someone who breaks out when they're put in the bullpen in their late 20s or early 30s.

[Bob Sacamano]

But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

 

Why? Relievers are so hot and cold.

Edited November 7, 2017 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

 

Between Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Cease, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Clarkin, Puckett, Martinez, Florez, Burr, Hamilton, Davis, Diaz, Bummer, Danish, Burdi, Infante, Beck, Petricka, Fry, Hickman, Olsen, Comito, McCluure and Henzmen you have a ton of really high end arms. Even if you can get a full five starters out of that group, you have all of those kids to get a bullpen out of, or even a fraction of a bullpen out of. There are a lot of guys in that last who can go from 95mph on up, plus arms that can eat up innings and more. That is also without looking for any Don Cooper specials or other guys coming in future trades.

 

I would much rather being paying 5-8 of those guys $500k a year, than anyone else $10 million per year.

[southsider2k5]

Only the Astros have really shown success without spending a great deal of money on at least one or two players.

 

The Cubs paid Lester around 150 million because they didn't draft pitching.

 

The Astros have paid a decent amount of players in the last year, especially if you count what they just added in Verlander.

[Eminor3rd]

But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

 

Yeah I think this is the "agree to disagree" point. Pitching carries a substantially higher injury risk than hitting, especially over a period of several years. Stockpiling pitching and building just has a way higher chance to blow up in your face than doing the same with position players. It's the same reason why all of the recent successful rebuilders have consciously focused on drafting and developing positional talent and then spending big on pitching as the final piece.

 

I agree that Donaldson wouldn't make sense for us, but he doesn't really fit the profile of what I mentioned in the first place. He's an aging corner guy that has tremendous present value but little future value. Your younger, up-the-middle guys are definitely more expensive, as you said, but there's a good reason -- they're rare and (relatively) dependable. If you lock one of them up (say Machado for a pipe dream), you can check that very important box off your list of needs for the foreseeable future, and now focus on the much easier task of filling lesser roles in whichever manner is appropriate. It's like going into a game of Yahtzee with the Yahtzee square already filled -- you still have a bunch of holes to fill to win, but your chances are much higher having already taken care of the hardest one to find.

 

I think sometimes we forget how much of this whole exercise is about managing risk. Any player can bust at any time for several reasons, and you need to avoid that bust long enough to get a whole bunch of pieces in place at once. In order to maximize our chances of success, we need to minimize risk whenever possible. Building a foundation using the only the most stable elements allows us to maintain flexibility to spend on the more volatile elements closer to the time when we need them. You maximize your chances to win a game of hot potato by holding onto the ball for the least amount of time. If pitchers are the most likely asset to blow up, then our strategy for minimizing that bust potential is to minimize the amount of time we have to hold onto them hoping they don't blow up.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I'd rather throw $20 million at 4 guys who have been cut loose or released or injured in recent seasons than throw $100 million at those relievers this year.

 

I could readily be talked into throwing big money at a reliever or two next offseason. My goal would still be to find this year's Swarzak/Morrow - someone who breaks out when they're put in the bullpen in their late 20s or early 30s.

Much easier said than done

[witesoxfan]

I don't know for sure what Swarzak would do, because him taking a 3/$15 deal from a team seems just as likely as him taking a 1 year, $7 mill deal. He's still making a significant amount of money and betting on himself in the latter scenario. That's the reason I think he'll go that route.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Yeah I think this is the "agree to disagree" point. Pitching carries a substantially higher injury risk than hitting, especially over a period of several years. Stockpiling pitching and building just has a way higher chance to blow up in your face than doing the same with position players. It's the same reason why all of the recent successful rebuilders have consciously focused on drafting and developing positional talent and then spending big on pitching as the final piece.

 

I agree that Donaldson wouldn't make sense for us, but he doesn't really fit the profile of what I mentioned in the first place. He's an aging corner guy that has tremendous present value but little future value. Your younger, up-the-middle guys are definitely more expensive, as you said, but there's a good reason -- they're rare and (relatively) dependable. If you lock one of them up (say Machado for a pipe dream), you can check that very important box off your list of needs for the foreseeable future, and now focus on the much easier task of filling lesser roles in whichever manner is appropriate. It's like going into a game of Yahtzee with the Yahtzee square already filled -- you still have a bunch of holes to fill to win, but your chances are much higher having already taken care of the hardest one to find.

 

I think sometimes we forget how much of this whole exercise is about managing risk. Any player can bust at any time for several reasons, and you need to avoid that bust long enough to get a whole bunch of pieces in place at once. In order to maximize our chances of success, we need to minimize risk whenever possible. Building a foundation using the only the most stable elements allows us to maintain flexibility to spend on the more volatile elements closer to the time when we need them. You maximize your chances to win a game of hot potato by holding onto the ball for the least amount of time. If pitchers are the most likely asset to blow up, then our strategy for minimizing that bust potential is to minimize the amount of time we have to hold onto them hoping they don't blow up.

For this very reason, I believe signing 4 or 5 second tier relievers best manages risk/reward. You hope that 2 or 3 of these guys pan out and of those that don't it's not a huge loss at $6-9MM AAV over a 2 or 3 year term. What free agent position players are worth signing in the coming years that won't come at an exhorbinant cost and are realistic targets for the White Sox?

[southsider2k5]

For this very reason, I believe signing 4 or 5 second tier relievers best manages risk/reward. You hope that 2 or 3 of these guys pan out and of those that don't it's not a huge loss at $6-9MM AAV over a 2 or 3 year term. What free agent position players are worth signing in the coming years that won't come at an exhorbinant cost and are realistic targets for the White Sox?

 

4 or 5 guys at 6 to 9 million dollars per year is a whole of money for an organization that is obscenely loaded with high end pitching arms anyway. The top end of that number may well get us two superstar position players in 2019 free agency.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Between Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Cease, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Clarkin, Puckett, Martinez, Florez, Burr, Hamilton, Davis, Diaz, Bummer, Danish, Burdi, Infante, Beck, Petricka, Fry, Hickman, Olsen, Comito, McCluure and Henzmen you have a ton of really high end arms. Even if you can get a full five starters out of that group, you have all of those kids to get a bullpen out of, or even a fraction of a bullpen out of. There are a lot of guys in that last who can go from 95mph on up, plus arms that can eat up innings and more. That is also without looking for any Don Cooper specials or other guys coming in future trades.

 

I would much rather being paying 5-8 of those guys $500k a year, than anyone else $10 million per year.

I mean yea that's a lot of names but you still have to fill out a rotation and an entire bullpen plus account for poor performance and injury risk. I don't feel as confident as you that with that list of players the White Sox will have an above average bullpen starting in 2019. How many of this year's playoff teams carried an entire bullpen of homegrown and inexpensive pitchers?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 or 5 guys at 6 to 9 million dollars per year is a whole of money for an organization that is obscenely loaded with high end pitching arms anyway. The top end of that number may well get us two superstar position players in 2019 free agency.

Really? Like who? 5x9x3=$135MM. I don't think that amount will get us one superstar player let alone two.

[southsider2k5]

Really? Like who? 5x9x3=$135MM. I don't think that amount will get us one superstar player let alone two.

 

5X9 = $45 million per season. That is a still a lot of money in 2017 MLB.

[southsider2k5]

I mean yea that's a lot of names but you still have to fill out a rotation and an entire bullpen plus account for poor performance and injury risk. I don't feel as confident as you that with that list of players the White Sox will have an above average bullpen starting in 2019. How many of this year's playoff teams carried an entire bullpen of homegrown and inexpensive pitchers?

 

The Sox also concentrated this rebuild on pitching. No other rebuilding team has one that. No one of the Royals, Cubs, Astros etc, had any where NEAR the pitching line up coming through their system that the White Sox have. Not even close. Honestly, I can't think of the last farm system period to have the amount, depth, and quality of arms the White Sox have from top to bottom right now.

[Balta1701]

Much easier said than done

We have a good history of this and plenty of playing time. That's why I keep saying target 3 or 4 guys. We have plenty of open bullpen space. Have those scouts go do their jobs.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5X9 = $45 million per season. That is a still a lot of money in 2017 MLB.

You are focusing on the AAV only and not the total contract cost. Over the next few years the AAV is FAR less of a concern for the White Sox than 3-5 years from now when those superstars that you are contemplating signing will be making big money.

[southsider2k5]

You are focusing on the AAV only and not the total contract cost. Over the next few years the AAV is FAR less of a concern for the White Sox than 3-5 years from now when those superstars that you are contemplating signing will be making big money.

 

$45 million is always a concern. There is no need to waste that kind of money for no damned good reason.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

$45 million is always a concern. There is no need to waste that kind of money for no damned good reason.

But it's not for no reason. It's to build an average to above average bullpen over the next few years rather than a complete dumpster fire. How will we even know if this team is "close" to competing if the bullpen is complete trash the next two years?

Edited November 7, 2017 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[witesoxfan]

As a rebuilding club, this is when the White Sox should be trying to find glue guys for the bullpen. If you sign 3-5 guys to multi-million deals, you have no flexibility to find those guys.

 

Next year should be a year of experimenting with different guys, putting them in tough situations and seeing how they respond. Failing is good because they can learn that way. Bringing in seasoned veterans and paying them $9 million per year to win 5 more games in a year where 75 wins is your best case scenario is setting yourself up for failure.

 

I think they bring in one or maybe two veteran relievers, but I don't see it being multi-year deals. I think the more likely scenario is that they bringing guys like Albuquerque, Farquhar, Infante, Minaya back and sorting through those guys throughout the season while bringing in others on MLC's. Legitimately, we all had no idea how good Swarzak and Kahnle were going to be at this time last year. I see the Sox doing that exact same thing again.

[witesoxfan]

But it's not for no reason. It's to build an average to above average bullpen over the next few years rather than a complete dumpster fire. How will we even know if this team is "close" to competing if the bullpen is complete trash the next two years?

 

If you can't see that your bullpen is trash, then you are not paying attention.

[southsider2k5]

But it's not for no reason. It's to build an average to above average bullpen over the next few years rather than a complete dumpster fire. How will we even know if this team is "close" to competing if the bullpen is complete trash the next two years?

 

It is absolutely for no reason. It is refurnishing a house with no roof. And you will know it is time for a bullpen when the rest of the is actually good again. It really isn't nearly as difficult as you want to make it be.

[southsider2k5]

As a rebuilding club, this is when the White Sox should be trying to find glue guys for the bullpen. If you sign 3-5 guys to multi-million deals, you have no flexibility to find those guys.

 

Next year should be a year of experimenting with different guys, putting them in tough situations and seeing how they respond. Failing is good because they can learn that way. Bringing in seasoned veterans and paying them $9 million per year to win 5 more games in a year where 75 wins is your best case scenario is setting yourself up for failure.

 

I think they bring in one or maybe two veteran relievers, but I don't see it being multi-year deals. I think the more likely scenario is that they bringing guys like Albuquerque, Farquhar, Infante, Minaya back and sorting through those guys throughout the season while bringing in others on MLC's. Legitimately, we all had no idea how good Swarzak and Kahnle were going to be at this time last year. I see the Sox doing that exact same thing again.

 

This is 100% how I see this off-season happening.

[witesoxfan]

This is 100% how I see this off-season happening.

 

One lefty vet and one righty vet. Guys to reflect wisdom and then, come July or August, if they want to try and get a title, the Sox ship them off to a contender. Honestly, Clippard seems like a guy the Sox could look to bring back too, even if he was only here like 15 days. He gave a lot of credit to Cooper on his way out the door.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

If you can't see that your bullpen is trash, then you are not paying attention.

But how will one judge whether a team is "close" to competing if they only win 70 games, largely because the bullpen is awful? A bad bullpen also lends itself to overextending the starters in an effort to compensate. I'm not sure that's a good thing for the rebuild either.

[southsider2k5]

But how will one judge whether a team is "close" to competing if they only win 70 games, largely because the bullpen is awful? A bad bullpen also lends itself to overextending the starters in an effort to compensate. I'm not sure that's a good thing for the rebuild either.

 

There are stats for exactly this. Regardless of what the pitching does, we can see where the position players are. We can also see how the starting pitching works through games. If the problem is in their last inning, and the pen indeed does suck, it will be really obvious that we are a guy or two away. It is exactly what we did in signing David Robertson.

[witesoxfan]

But how will one judge whether a team is "close" to competing if they only win 70 games, largely because the bullpen is awful? A bad bullpen also lends itself to overextending the starters in an effort to compensate. I'm not sure that's a good thing for the rebuild either.

 

Because it is very easy to keep track of how many games a bullpen blew the game. Whether you want to use conventional means like blown saves, or (preferably) you lean more towards analytics and look at WPA+ and WPA-, shutdowns and meltdowns, WAR, FIP, etc, you can tell how good or bad your bullpen was and how much work is necessary. I also don't believe that a bad bullpen leads to overextending starters. A bad bullpen leads to position players pitching and different relievers being called up from the minors with little to no effect whatsoever on the starting pitchers.