Looks For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade

[GenericUserName]

I just saw this article about a possible Jose Abreu trade. It seems like for as little value he had last year, he has a ton this year.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/look...breu-trade.html

 

With the White Sox continuing their rebuild, it only makes sense that the team is open to the idea of trading slugger Jose Abreu. The first baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn a hefty $17.9MM in arbitration this winter, and he’ll have another big price tag due next winter when he makes his third and final trip through the arb process before hitting free agency.

 

Even at the cost of roughly $37MM over the next two seasons, however, it can certainly be argued that Abreu is well worth the money. He batted .304/.354/.552 with 33 homers over 675 plate appearances last season, with a 138 wRC+ that ranked 19th among all qualified hitters. While Abreu has done nothing but mash since coming to MLB in 2014, his career low strikeout and swinging-strike totals from last year and his career-best 40.5% hard-hit ball rate indicate that he may be becoming even more polished at the plate as he approaches his age-31 season. Between his big bat, his passable defensive numbers at first base and his well-respected clubhouse presence, Abreu would be an upgrade to any lineup in baseball.

 

Jose Abreu | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY SportsWith this resume in mind, Abreu represents an interesting alternative within a very crowded first base market on both the free agent and trade front this winter. A team might prefer Abreu’s two years of control to splurging on a longer-term and more expensive commitment to Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, while Abreu is a clear step up production-wise from second-tier first base free agents like Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso. Abreu also comes at just a fraction of the cost of Giancarlo Stanton for suitors that aren’t willing to meet the Marlins’ high (and maybe unrealistic) asking price of both prospects and salary absorption.

 

What the crowded market does mean, however, is that it may be some weeks or even months before Abreu’s fate is determined. Teams may not look for second-choice players until Stanton or Shohei Ohtani (who could be at least a part-time DH for an AL team) have their new teams established. White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shown that he is only willing to move his top assets (like Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, or Jose Quintana) for the highest of trade returns, and in Quintana’s case, Hahn was willing to wait until the season had begun to pull the trigger on a deal. It could be that the Sox hang onto Abreu until midseason when the first base market is less loaded.

 

Chicago will also be shopping Avisail Garcia this winter, who is four years younger and considerably less expensive than Abreu, but has the same amount of team control and has a much less-established track record of big league success. It isn’t out of the question that the Sox look to move both players in one blockbuster, though for now, let’s just focus on potential suitors for Abreu himself…

 

Angels: A left-handed bat would be a better fit for the righty-heavy Angels lineup, though the team would hardly complain about adding a hitter of Abreu’s caliber. Both corner infield spots are areas of need for the Halos, and Abreu’s addition would shift Luis Valbuena over to third base and turn C.J. Cron into a trade or even a non-tender candidate. It isn’t clear, however, if the Angels’ thin farm system has enough interesting names to get Chicago’s attention.

 

Astros: Adding Abreu to this already-stacked lineup would just about be unfair, but it looks like Evan Gattis is Houston’s answer for the DH spot next season now that Carlos Beltran has retired. The World Series champions probably won’t be in the mix for Abreu, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox are quite familiar with the Astros’ farm system, after acquiring Tyler Clippard last summer and extensively discussing Quintana before the southpaw was eventually dealt to the Cubs. Houston was also one of the teams interested in Abreu when he first came from Cuba to the big leagues.

 

Brewers: A bit of an outside-the-box contender for Abreu since Eric Thames is already at first base, plus Thames is owed only $12MM through 2019 (which includes a $1MM buyout of a $7.5MM club option for 2020). Thames is actually a couple of months older than Abreu, however, and isn’t as nearly as proven a hitter; even in Thames’ breakout 2017 campaign, he was very hot-and-cold in terms of production thanks to a big strikeout rate. Milwaukee is reportedly open to spending on pitching this winter, so you wonder if a team that is prepared to make a big move wouldn’t also be open to an offensive upgrade. Thames could be shipped to the White Sox as part of the Abreu trade package, giving the Sox another trade chip for the deadline.

 

Cardinals: Known to be looking for a difference-making bat this winter, the Cards have been exploring numerous free agent and trade options, most notably being cited as one of Stanton’s top suitors. A trade indeed seems like the best course of action given the Cards’ surplus of infielders and (particularly) outfielders on the roster, so St. Louis seems like a logical partner for the White Sox. The Cardinals have enough depth to pay a premium for Abreu and then still potentially have enough players or especially payroll space to swing another big move for an outfielder or for pitching.

 

Indians: Abreu would make a fine replacement at first base if Santana leaves in free agency, and Abreu’s short-term contract fits into the Tribe’s contention window. The two division rivals may not be keen on supplying the other with either a top slugger or good prospects, however — Cleveland and Chicago have only worked out one trade with each other since 1994.

 

Mets: Injuries, platoon candidates, and unproven prospects have left the Mets’ roster with enough uncertainty that they’ve been linked to such varied targets as Santana, Lorenzo Cain, and Ian Kinsler. Abreu would be a bigger add than Kinsler and would cost less money than Santana or Cain, though it remains to be seen if the Mets would have enough prospects to entice the White Sox. Dominic Smith seems like a likely candidate to be offered in an Abreu trade package, though the Sox aren’t likely to be too enamored by a player who may have fallen out of favor with the Mets.

 

Padres: You may wonder why they’re on this list given the presence of Wil Myers, but San Diego has reportedly given some consideration to moving Myers to the corner outfield and pursuing Hosmer. Given that the Padres are themselves rebuilding and Hosmer would be seen as a long-term building block for when the team is competitive again, Abreu’s two years of control likely makes the Friars an extreme long shot as trade partners for the White Sox.

 

Phillies: Another far-fetched trade candidate on paper, though since Philadelphia has been checking in on Carlos Santana, the Phils probably can’t be entirely ruled out as contenders for Abreu. The Phillies have also been widely seen as planning to spend big in the 2018-19 free agent market, so if the team lands a superstar or two from that class, they could be planning to contend by 2019, so Abreu’s short-term control could be a fit (with Rhys Hoskins perhaps able to move back to first base for the 2020 season).

 

Rangers: Another team that was in on Abreu back in 2013, Texas is a bit of a tricky fit now. Abreu’s addition would result in Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara becoming the regular corner outfielders, Shin-Soo Choo becoming the regular DH and top prospect Willie Calhoun fighting to find at-bats. That is, unless, the Rangers made the bold move of offering Calhoun or even Mazara to Chicago as the headliner of an Abreu trade package. Pitching is the more pressing need for the Rangers this offseason but if they can’t add enough big arms, they could do the opposite route and just try to load up on offense.

 

Red Sox: Abreu would instantly solve Boston’s power outage from last season and his short contract means that the Sox would still have an opening for Sam Travis or Rafael Devers at first in the relatively near future. Dave Dombrowski already swung one blockbuster with Hahn last winter for Sale, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two sides again collaborated. Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a person of interest in such a deal, as Chicago was interested in Bradley during past trade talks.

 

Rockies: As noted by Jeff Todd in his recent Offseason Outlook piece on Colorado’s winter plans, Abreu has been on the Rockies’ radar in the past and would be a very solid fit for a team that has a big hole at first base. Abreu’s presence would move Ian Desmond into a corner outfield spot (maybe a better fit for Desmond anyway) and thus potentially block Raimel Tapia in the outfield and Ryan McMahon at first base. Either youngster could conceivably go to the White Sox as part of an Abreu deal, however.

 

Royals: This scenario would only take place if Hosmer left but K.C. re-signed one of its other big free agents (Cain and Mike Moustakas). If all three left, the Royals are likely to embark on a rebuild rather than make a splashy trade for Abreu.

 

Twins: Miguel Sano will reportedly be ready by early January after undergoing leg surgery in early November, though given the nature of the procedure (Sano is having a titanium rod inserted in his left leg), one has to wonder if Sano will spend more time at DH than at third base next season. If this is the case, Minnesota isn’t a fit for Abreu since Joe Mauer is still locked in at first base. If Sano is healthy enough to stay at the hot corner, the Twins could look into an Abreu trade, though they’re another team that has been more focused on pitching for their offseason shopping.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just saw this article about a possible Jose Abreu trade. It seems like for as little value he had last year, he has a ton this year.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/look...breu-trade.html

 

Some of those teams make zero sense. I would see Rockies, Cardinals and Red Sox as most likely.

[BlackSox13]

Boston and STL make the most sense. STL has plenty of interesting prospects to offer. Sierra and Bader got some time on the big league club last season and O'Neill is about MLB ready, plus they have young pitching to offer. s***, STL has more than enough to trade for Abreu and Avi.

[GenericUserName]

Boston and STL make the most sense. STL has plenty of interesting prospects to offer. Sierra and Bader got some time on the big league club last season and O'Neill is about MLB ready, plus they have young pitching to offer. s***, STL has more than enough to trade for Abreu and Avi.

Yeah, and I think a lot of Cardinals fans like Abreu. Two of the fan proposals I've seen that people thought was fair are Abreu for Carson Kelly & Jack Flaherty and Abreu for Carson Kelly, Magneuris Sierra, Jordan Hicks. Both of those seem pretty good, but I don't how much we value his leadership/mentorship

[BlackSox13]

Yeah, and I think a lot of Cardinals fans like Abreu. Two of the fan proposals I've seen that people thought was fair are Abreu for Carson Kelly & Jack Flaherty and Abreu for Carson Kelly, Magneuris Sierra, Jordan Hicks. Both of those seem pretty good, but I don't how much we value his leadership/mentorship

Those really are reasonable offers. If I had my choice it would be Kelly/Flaherty for Abreu. Wonder what Cardinal fans are willing to give up for Avi.

[Dominikk85]

I would package Avi and Abreu to the Cards if they want them.

 

Avi is good but he was very lucky with babip last year (390!!). projections have him at about 2 WAR and a 110 wRC+ with a 330 BABIP which sounds reasonable.

 

I would absolutely do avi and abreu for Kelly, flaherty, O neill and Sierra and even if the Cards want to Keep O neil and throw in another lower Level prospect I would still do that.

Edited November 24, 2017 by GermanSock

[Soha]

If the Cardinals traded for Avi and Abreu, plus signed Arrieta...suddenly they are co-favorites right there with the Cubs.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just don’t see the point of trading Abreu unless you get a legit blue-chipper for him. While you can certainly can never have enough prospect depth, at some point that depth comes with diminishing returns. We’re already starting to have 40 man roster issues, so adding more prospects will likely require us to let go of some other (lesser) talent down the road. Furthermore, you simply run out of opportunities to give these guys all looks. By the end of this coming season we could have a rotation of Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, & Hansen plus guys like Adams, Stephens, & Guerrero (if around) in AAA and other key prospects like Dunning, Cease, etc. at other levels. Obviously we lack depth at other positions, but again, unless we’re adding a blue chipper I don’t see the point of selling Abreu, especially not when we’ll have plenty of money to plug any gaps with serviceable players.

 

Avi is a different story because either you have to be confident in extending him for big money or sell him off in the next two years. Given our minor league OF dept (which is quite extensive) and Avi’s checkered past, I think selling is the right call. And while I would definitely not just give him away, I don’t need a blue chipper to move him like I would with Abreu.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just don’t see the point of trading Abreu unless you get a legit blue-chipper for him. While you can certainly can never have enough prospect depth, at some point that depth comes with diminishing returns. We’re already starting to have 40 man roster issues, so adding more prospects will likely require us to let go of some other (lesser) talent down the road. Furthermore, you simply run out of opportunities to give these guys all looks. By the end of this coming season we could have a rotation of Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, & Hansen plus guys like Adams, Stephens, & Guerrero (if around) in AAA and other key prospects like Dunning, Cease, etc. at other levels. Obviously we lack depth at other positions, but again, unless we’re adding a blue chipper I don’t see the point of selling Abreu, especially not when we’ll have plenty of money to plug any gaps with serviceable players.

 

Avi is a different story because either you have to be confident in extending him for big money or sell him off in the next two years. Given our minor league OF dept (which is quite extensive) and Avi’s checkered past, I think selling is the right call. And while I would definitely not just give him away, I don’t need a blue chipper to move him like I would with Abreu.

 

Agreed on Avi. Seems like we have a lot of arms (and even a few bats) knocking on the door to the point where if a team offered a few recent top 18/19 year old draft picks/international signings, I'd probably trade him. Get some guys 3-4 years away for the next wave.

Edited November 24, 2017 by soxfan2014

[GreenSox]

There certainly is a strong element of diminishing returns, especially at corner OF and 1B for the Sox. But Sox can can always use depth in the low minors to ensure a flowing pipeline, particularly up the middle. They really aren't replete with SS, C and CF prospects at any level..

Plus you can't have enough pitching. I know we can list out 10 really good pitching prospects, but you need 13 for a staff, and you better have at least 1/2 a dozen others that you can call up to cover for injuries, non-performance, etc. Veterans will consume some of those spots, and they can trade for some, but if you wait to trade until you absolutely need the pitching, the price is premium.

Abreu's a tough trade. We can value his numbers in terms of trade. But the Sox also value his intangibles. Teams that trade for him can be confident that he won't be a pain the rear, so they won't discount him. But I doubt they are willing to pay a premium for his clubhouse positives.

Avi's valuation is tougher. Was 2017 a fluke or not?

Edited November 24, 2017 by GreenSox

[Lillian]

If the Sox trade both Avi and Abreu, who exactly is going to comprise the middle of the order? In a year or two, you can pencil in Eloy. Beyond that, I don't see a big run producing heart of the order.

You might add Moncada, but i'd prefer he be that Ricky Henderson type dynamo, at the top of the order. So, please reassure me that the Sox can assemble an offense in time, and at an affordable cost, for the targeted 2019 year of contention.

 

The team chemistry seems to be coming together very nicely and there is certainly enough payroll flexibility, to extend at least Abreu. If they don't do so, management will almost certainly have to sign a big free agent. I just don't get the point.

[GreenSox]

If the Sox trade both Avi and Abreu, who exactly is going to comprise the middle of the order? In a year or two, you can pencil in Eloy. Beyond that, I don't see a big run producing heart of the order.

Well, they will both be FAs in 2020, so the Sox will likely have to do something. But Abreu will also be 33 in 2020, so it may be best to tread lightly right now.

As for Avi, I would point to Delmonico. They had similar numbers last year (Avi somewhat better), albeit Avi over an entire season and Delmonico over 1/4 season. But Delmonico also had a very modest BAPIP and walks a lot...and he has taken pitches throughout his minor league career as well. All considered, he may be as sure (or unsure) bet to continue his success as Avi.

[Lillian]

Well, they will both be FAs in 2020, so the Sox will likely have to do something. But Abreu will also be 33 in 2020, so it may be best to tread lightly right now.

As for Avi, I would point to Delmonico. They had similar numbers last year (Avi somewhat better), albeit Avi over an entire season and Delmonico over 1/4 season. But Delmonico also had a very modest BAPIP and walks a lot...and he has taken pitches throughout his minor league career as well. All considered, he may be as sure (or unsure) bet to continue his success as Avi.

 

Yes, I like Delmonico and the fact that he hits left handed is another plus. I don't agree with the assessment of his being as sure of a bet as Avi. After all, he only had a third of a season.

[GGajewski18]

Jose Abreu is gonna be our David Ortiz/Jose Bautista. I think an extension of 4 years/70 million is beneficial for everyone involved. Stick Abreu at DH in his later years and he lengthens that lineup a ton.

 

I get exploring trades, but unless the right deal comes around like a Sale/Q type deal, I want Abreu around for this rebuild to be the captain and a mentor to the young players.

[Wanne]

Jose Abreu is gonna be our David Ortiz/Jose Bautista. I think an extension of 4 years/70 million is beneficial for everyone involved. Stick Abreu at DH in his later years and he lengthens that lineup a ton.

 

I get exploring trades, but unless the right deal comes around like a Sale/Q type deal, I want Abreu around for this rebuild to be the captain and a mentor to the young players.

 

this. Unless you get a dramatic overpay for Jose...no thanks.

[Lillian]

We shouldn't minimize the prospect of having both Avi and Abreu through 2020. Two of the next 3 years could well be seasons, in which the Sox make it to the Post Season. I've said it before but, a lineup featuring Moncada, Avi, Eloy, Abreu and one solid left handed bat, sandwiched in between the 3 right handed hitters, could be

a very potent offense, irrespective of what the other half of the lineup includes, which should be pretty decent, given all of the young talent.

 

I think that the first option should be to explore the cost of extending both of them. If they want too much money, keep them until they reach free agency and access the team's needs, at that time.

[southsider2k5]

We shouldn't minimize the prospect of having both Avi and Abreu through 2020. Two of the next 3 years could well be seasons, in which the Sox make it to the Post Season. I've said it before but, a lineup featuring Moncada, Avi, Eloy, Abreu and one solid left handed bat, sandwiched in between the 3 right handed hitters, could be

a very potent offense, irrespective of what the other half of the lineup includes, which should be pretty decent, given all of the young talent.

 

I think that the first option should be to explore the cost of extending both of them. If they want too much money, keep them until they reach free agency and access the team's needs, at that time.

 

If we trade both of these guys, it is pretty well sealed that we are looking at 2020 or 2021 to make the playoffs.

[Lillian]

If we trade both of these guys, it is pretty well sealed that we are looking at 2020 or 2021 to make the playoffs.

 

You are probably right about that, and I think that would be a mistake. This team should be ready by 2019.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

We shouldn't minimize the prospect of having both Avi and Abreu through 2020. Two of the next 3 years could well be seasons, in which the Sox make it to the Post Season. I've said it before but, a lineup featuring Moncada, Avi, Eloy, Abreu and one solid left handed bat, sandwiched in between the 3 right handed hitters, could be

a very potent offense, irrespective of what the other half of the lineup includes, which should be pretty decent, given all of the young talent.

 

I think that the first option should be to explore the cost of extending both of them. If they want too much money, keep them until they reach free agency and access the team's needs, at that time.

As we saw with both Houston and L.A. to win or make it deep into the post season your lineup has to have thump basically from top to bottom. The Sox have to be very careful about too much investing in the future and not enough in the present.

 

We can all talk about adding a big free agent at the appropriate time but that should be done only to make the lineup a force not just to fill a hole . Boston looked like a pretty decent lineup but it ended up not being good enough. Just like pitching you can never have enough bats. If the Sox have learned anything from the years before the rebuild it's you don't half ass it. If you want to win build the team from depth not from desperation. Kids won't always develop . Keep some established bats around.

Edited November 24, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dick Allen]

For all those wanting Abreu around for leadership, in the meeting I was in, Hahn said it was a factor, but not as big of one as production, and mentioned diminishing returns on others JA age.

 

They can trade these guys and sign them when they become free agents. Their production in 2018, and most likely 2019 (RH has recently stated 2020 might be more realistic) really doesn't do anything for when the team will be ready. I really think they want to trade these guys unless maybe they agree to a really team friendly extension.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

For all those wanting Abreu around for leadership, in the meeting I was in, Hahn said it was a factor, but not as big of one as production, and mentioned diminishing returns on others JA age.

 

They can trade these guys and sign them when they become free agents. Their production in 2018, and most likely 2019 (RH has recently stated 2020 might be more realistic) really doesn't do anything for when the team will be ready. I really think they want to trade these guys unless maybe they agree to a really team friendly extension.

All Hahn is doing is stating the obvious. Of course production trumps leadership but a strong leader should not be minimized. There was only one Big Papi but Abreu with a hot bat and his leadership role should not be easily pushed aside. A rudderless ship is useless.

[GGajewski18]

If we trade both of these guys, it is pretty well sealed that we are looking at 2020 or 2021 to make the playoffs.

 

I agree, which is why I don't think that happens. I think Avi will be the one to go. Have to sell high on him.

[greg775]

Jose Abreu is gonna be our David Ortiz/Jose Bautista. I think an extension of 4 years/70 million is beneficial for everyone involved. Stick Abreu at DH in his later years and he lengthens that lineup a ton.

 

I get exploring trades, but unless the right deal comes around like a Sale/Q type deal, I want Abreu around for this rebuild to be the captain and a mentor to the young players.

Why can't Rick Hahn see this and agree with this. Seems to me he's intent on trading Avi and Abreu from what Dick has posted. He's in love with the fact fans worship him for the rebuild. And Jerry has to deep down love it too cause the payroll is making him and the partners gazillions of dollars in their later years with fan approval, not scorn. It'$ a win/win for Jerry and the partner$.

Edited November 24, 2017 by greg775

[GGajewski18]

Why can't Rick Hahn see this and agree with this. Seems to me he's intent on trading Avi and Abreu from what Dick has posted. He's in love with the fact fans worship him for the rebuild. And Jerry has to deep down love it too cause the payroll is making him and the partners gazillions of dollars in their later years with fan approval, not scorn. It'$ a win/win for Jerry and the partner$.

 

I think Hahn does see it, but like I said, it doesn't hurt to explore a trade for your good players. I would only take a Sale/Q type deal for Abreu.

 

If Rockies offered Rodgers and Pint +, I'll probably take that.

 

 

[greg775]

I think Hahn does see it, but like I said, it doesn't hurt to explore a trade for your good players. I would only take a Sale/Q type deal for Abreu.

 

If Rockies offered Rodgers and Pint +, I'll probably take that.

The meeting Dick Allen went to makes it sounds like both are goners.

I think whatever trade they make, all but 2-3 fans on here will be overwhelmingly in favor of. It's all about prospects now. I think both will be dealt about the same time because once one is dealt, other GMs will try to steal the other because our team's years of contention will be pushed back once we trade one of them. I guess I agree if we could thoroughly rob somebody: 3 can't miss certain ML players and one mid level prospect I'd agree with dealing Avi.