Current personal White Sox T30 prospects

[credezcrew24]

Dickman needs some love

[NorthSideSox72]

Dickman needs some love

I didn't add him on my just missed, but he was a guy I gave some thought to. He's probably in the 31-40 range for me, somewhere.

 

What's fun to consider is that if today's Mendick existed in the Sox system, say, 2 or 3 years ago, he'd probably in the 20's or maybe even the teens.

 

[bmags]

I loved Mendick at W-S, he was like the only consistent player until Eloy got there, but his AA and then AFL stints were pretty meh. He'll need to show his talent didn't tap out to go ahead of other interesting guys for me.

[NorthSideSox72]

I loved Mendick at W-S, he was like the only consistent player until Eloy got there, but his AA and then AFL stints were pretty meh. He'll need to show his talent didn't tap out to go ahead of other interesting guys for me.

 

AA was meh, but AFL started terrible then got hot and ended up with a pretty decent line. I think it was an adjustment period, and it's good he was in the AFL. Should put him in a better position to succeed in 2018.

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

So I didn't really do any additional research but here goes:

 

1. Eloy Jimenez OF

2. Michael Kopech RHP

3. Luis Robert OF

4. Alec Hansen RHP

5. Zack Collins C

6. Dylan Cease RHP

7. Jake Burger 3B

8. Blake Rutherford OF

9. Dane Dunning RHP

10. Carson Fulmer RHP

11. Spencer Adams RHP

12. Casey Gillaspie 1B

13. Micker Adolfo OF

14. Jordan Stephens RHP

15. Gavin Sheets 1B

16. Zack Burdi RHP

17. Ryan Cordell OF

18. Jordan Guerrero LHP

19. Luis Gonzalez OF

20. Ian Clarkin LHP

21. Luis Alexander Basabe

22. Seby Zavala C

23. Alex Call OF

24. Thyago Vieira RHP

25. Daniel Palka 1B/OF

26. Luis Curbelo SS

27. Aaron Bummer LHP

28. AJ Puckett RHP

29. Jake Peter INF

30. Bernardo Flores LHP

[mac9001]

Man, I thought I was high on Zavala at 15/16-ish.

 

I'm probably more bullish on him than Collins. If he stops hitting I may change my mind but he hasn't yet. I watched him absolutely crush a few balls in WS this year. There's not many people on the planet that can launch the way he did on a few of those balls.

[steveno89]

I'm probably more bullish on him than Collins. If he stops hitting I may change my mind but he hasn't yet. I watched him absolutely crush a few balls in WS this year. There's not many people on the planet that can launch the way he did on a few of those balls.

 

It will be interesting to see how they deploy Zavala and Collins in 2018, as I think both deserve to be getting regular reps in AA. Collins has better pedigree, but it's tough to ignore how good of a season Seby had in 2017, especially down the stretch in Winston Salem.

[KnightsOnMintSt]

Here is my list:

 

1. Jimenez

2. Kopech

3. Robert

4. Hansen

5. Dunning

6. Collins

7. Rutherford

8. Burger

9. Fulmer

10. Cease

11. Stephens

12. Burdi

13. Gillaspie

14. Zavala

15. Adolfo

16. Sheets

17. Adams

18. Cordell

19. Basabe

20. Vieira

21. Guerrero

22. Clarkin

23. Puckett

24. Tilson

25. Skoug

26. Yurchak

27. Call

28. Fisher

29. Bummer

30. Fry

30. Nunez

[Superstar Lamar]

not sure why Jimenez is the universal #1 over Kopech

[southsider2k5]

not sure why Jimenez is the universal #1 over Kopech

 

I am not sure why anyone would think differently at this point. Jimenez might be the best prospect in all of baseball. If not, he is in the team photo.

[Superstar Lamar]

I am not sure why anyone would think differently at this point. Jimenez might be the best prospect in all of baseball. If not, he is in the team photo.

 

and Kopech is not?

[witesoxfan]

I could understand an argument being made for Kopech. His command improved as the season went on and you are talking about 3 plus pitches, including a plus plus fastball, and he's going to start in AAA. He has legitimate ace potential.

 

I would still go with Eloy as my #1, but Kopech is also probably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball too.

[southsider2k5]

and Kopech is not?

 

Not quite, no. That could change with next year, but as of today, no.

[Chicago White Sox]

I could understand an argument being made for Kopech. His command improved as the season went on and you are talking about 3 plus pitches, including a plus plus fastball, and he's going to start in AAA. He has legitimate ace potential.

 

I would still go with Eloy as my #1, but Kopech is also probably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball too.

Kopech has a higher ceiling, but Eloy has the higher floor and is generally a much safer player. I don’t see much of an argument for Kopech right now unless you’re going off upside. And I say this as someone who believes he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball.

[witesoxfan]

Kopech has a higher ceiling, but Eloy has the higher floor and is generally a much safer player. I don’t see much of an argument for Kopech right now unless you’re going off upside. And I say this as someone who believes he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball.

 

I think that's the argument you make. Kopech could arguably be the best pitcher in the majors at some point. But really, Kopech's worst case scenario is that of a middle reliever*, being unable to consistently harness his control as a starter and proving ineffective, so I think you'd say his FV's range between 40/45 and 70. With Eloy, you're probably looking at a guy who has a chance to be among the most dangerous hitters in the league, but his worst case scenario is probably, what, average to slightly above average outfielder? So say his range is 50 to 65. You absolutely feel really safe about Eloy.

 

And that's not including injuries. Pitchers end up getting TJ all the time anymore. That kills a full year of service time. Unless it's something terribly catastrophic (or, if you are Charlie Tilson, stepping out of your car), long-term injuries just don't seem to happen a lot, especially if said players keep in good shape.

 

*- noting that, yes, there are injuries that can happen to any given player that can ruin their careers, but those are not to be expected

[Rowand44]

and Kopech is not?

Prospect wise people just happen to value Position players more than Starting Pitchers. I don't disagree with you at all here as Kopech to me is the best pitching prospect in baseball and Eloy is the best hitting prospect in baseball, just depends on how you value the two.

[Rowand44]

Kopech has a higher ceiling, but Eloy has the higher floor and is generally a much safer player. I don’t see much of an argument for Kopech right now unless you’re going off upside. And I say this as someone who believes he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball.

 

 

I think that's the argument you make. Kopech could arguably be the best pitcher in the majors at some point. But really, Kopech's worst case scenario is that of a middle reliever*, being unable to consistently harness his control as a starter and proving ineffective, so I think you'd say his FV's range between 40/45 and 70. With Eloy, you're probably looking at a guy who has a chance to be among the most dangerous hitters in the league, but his worst case scenario is probably, what, average to slightly above average outfielder? So say his range is 50 to 65. You absolutely feel really safe about Eloy.

 

And that's not including injuries. Pitchers end up getting TJ all the time anymore. That kills a full year of service time. Unless it's something terribly catastrophic (or, if you are Charlie Tilson, stepping out of your car), long-term injuries just don't seem to happen a lot, especially if said players keep in good shape.

 

*- noting that, yes, there are injuries that can happen to any given player that can ruin their careers, but those are not to be expected

I respect both of you guys a lot as posters but to be honest, I don't agree with any of this either.

 

EDIT: Outside of the injury nugget.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Rowand44

[witesoxfan]

I respect both of you guys a lot as posters but to be honest, I don't agree with any of this either.

 

EDIT: Outside of the injury nugget.

 

You have Kopech #1?

[Rowand44]

You have Kopech #1?

I think there is a fair argument to have him ranked number 1. I go back and forth but I'd probably have Eloy by a hair at the moment. I just don't agree with your guys' floor and ceiling theory. I think relative to their position they have the same floor and ceiling as each other.

[witesoxfan]

I think there is a fair argument to have him ranked number 1. I go back and forth but I'd probably have Eloy by a hair at the moment. I just don't agree with your guys' floor and ceiling theory. I think relative to their position they have the same floor and ceiling as each other.

 

Well I think you could also make an argument that Eloy has the potential to be the most valuable hitter in the league. It's just hard for me personally to say "x minor league hitter could be an MVP" because hitters stats are so less quantitative, at least until we get more BatF/X data from the minors. I know how hard a guy throws and his K/9 and BB/9, those things are easy to draw semi-logical conclusions. With hitters, it's harder, because a .330/.420/.550 line in the minors, even across 3 different leagues, could mean different things.

 

I saw a recent comparison of Eloy to Giancarlo Stanton by a respected analyst. With his power, that is not an unrealistic comparison, and Stanton is a pretty incredible hitter. There have also been plenty of huge power bats that didn't produce, and plenty of power bats who took years to develop. In 2005, as a 22 year old in AAA, Edwin Encarnacion hit .314/.388/.548/.936 with great peripherals. He then proceeded to be pretty OK for the first 7 years of his career before he finally broke out. That is a possibility for Eloy too. Anything is possible, it's just hard to say at this point.

 

I'm just glad the Sox have him.

 

[southsider2k5]

I think there is a fair argument to have him ranked number 1. I go back and forth but I'd probably have Eloy by a hair at the moment. I just don't agree with your guys' floor and ceiling theory. I think relative to their position they have the same floor and ceiling as each other.

 

Yeah, they both have ceilings of among the best in baseball at what they do. Though I do agree with the idea that Eloy has a much higher floor. I think you could put him in LF on April 1 in Chicago and he would hit a decent amount from day 1.

 

With Kopech's control, there is still a pretty fair chance that he could never make the bigs if it were to desert him again. He is a big dude who throws every pitch at full effort, and a lot of long moving parts in his mechanics. While the odds of that happening aren't great, they are much higher than Eloy's odds of completely busting.

 

There is also a measurable chance of a shoulder or elbow blowing up and changing his career, again going back to his full effort style.

 

I'd also say that there is a measurable chance that if Kopech starts to have control problems again he could eventually become a closer, which instantly drops his value a large amount, even if he is the next Aroldis.

 

Add those three non-premium outcomes and compare that to what Eloy is up against, and I think there is a lot more space for Kopech to fail/disappoint than Eloy. That is the big difference in my mind.

 

The other side is that if he has really conquered his control problems he could also be Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan. You can't teach that kind of arm. There is also a pretty big chance he could be a superstar.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think there is a fair argument to have him ranked number 1. I go back and forth but I'd probably have Eloy by a hair at the moment. I just don't agree with your guys' floor and ceiling theory. I think relative to their position they have the same floor and ceiling as each other.

I guess what I’m getting at and Wite alluded to is the range of outcomes is much greater for Kopech than Eloy. To me, Eloy has a pretty damn high floor, like say a 3 WAR player while Kopech could theoretically end up being just a reliever. However, Eloy’s ceiling is limited to some extent IMO because I think he’ll eventually bulk up and become an average at best fielder in RF. Kopech could become the best pitcher in baseball if his command continues to improve and successfully refines his secondary offerings. Like I said, I truly believe Kopech is the best pitching prospect in baseball, but those top couple positional guys who have demonstrated plus hit & power tools while flashing above average plate discipline are basically impossible for any pitching prospect to best because of the unique combo of floor & upside they provide. I’d just be hard pressed to rationalize taking Kopech over guys like Jimenez, Acuna, Guerrero, etc. if I was building a team from scratch and that’s typically how I think about prospect rankings.

Edited December 1, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[Heads22]

Well, Eloy is the bessss

[Dam8610]

I am not sure why anyone would think differently at this point. Jimenez might be the best prospect in all of baseball. If not, he is in the team photo.

 

I'd put Acuna at 1 personally, but Eloy is 2. Then Vlad, Robles, and Gleyber in some order.

 

and Kopech is not?

 

What do you consider to be "in the team photo"? He's definitely a top 10 and maybe a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, but as has been started, elite positional players typically carry a higher floor and therefore a better chance of success.

[Heads22]

19 bombs thru 89 games in three different minor league stops is ok