The Avi Thread

[hi8is]

Let the Avi conversing continue!

 

MLBTR released a well written summary today...

 

...The conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/look...rcia-trade.html

 

I also thought it interesting to see a name like Paven Smith brought up within that article.

[GenericUserName]

Let the Avi conversing continue!

 

MLBTR released a well written summary today...

 

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/look...rcia-trade.html

 

I also thought it interesting to see a name like Paven Smith brought up within that article.

Trade Avi to get Pavin Smith and trade Abreu to get Tyler O'Neil. You've effectively traded for younger players at each position with potentially more upside plus whoever else those trades net.

[Quin]

I'm gonna need a lot more than 1-for-1 deals with Avi and Abreu

[GenericUserName]

I'm gonna need a lot more than 1-for-1 deals with Avi and Abreu

Yeah, same. I thought that was implied by saying "whoever else those trades net." I was just saying we could get replacements for the two guys we traded in the two trades. Hell, for the Abreu trade I'd start high and see if we could get Kelly and O'Neil.

[hi8is]

I'm gonna need a lot more than 1-for-1 deals with Avi and Abreu

I don't see anyone suggesting a 1 for 1 deal in the MLBTR link or in this thread

Edited November 26, 2017 by hi8is

[bmags]

I actually think 1-1 deals are most likely. Maybe a non exciting second piece. But like for the cardinals, there are so many options to do beside Abreu if you don’t like the price. I think Kelly for Abreu is the kind of deal I’d expect. It’s why I still just don’t see them moved.

[hi8is]

I actually think 1-1 deals are most likely. Maybe a non exciting second piece. But like for the cardinals, there are so many options to do beside Abreu if you don’t like the price. I think Kelly for Abreu is the kind of deal I’d expect. It’s why I still just don’t see them moved.

Yup yup - any secondary pieces would be organizationally in the 10 - 15 range off the other teams farm. I'm like you as well in terms of thinking they both are on the south side still for 2018. It's my preference, actually.

 

If the Diamondbacks however offered something like Paven Smith, Jared Miller, and Socrates Brito.

 

I mean... who could pass up on a deal that nets you Socrates?

[hi8is]

This offseason is going to be so boring but if Hahn can somehow wizard a decent return for Avi that would be all I need.

Indeed. Bring on the Ex-Lax.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

I've posted on this before- keep him, IMO. The upside is worth more than what you'll get for him, anyway. If 2017 was a fluke, well, it was worth a shot. Not like you're getting anything significant anyway.

Edited November 26, 2017 by Swingandalongonetoleft

[Balta1701]

I've posted on this before- keep him, IMO. The upside is worth more than what you'll get for him, anyway. If 2017 was a fluke, well, it was worth a shot. Not like you're getting anything significant anyway.

I think it's the exact opposite, there's little upside to keeping him. If he repeats 2017, then if you want to sign him next offseason it'll be a 9 figure deal because that's what he'll get a year later. If he repeats 2017, then if you wait until next offseason, you're trading him with only 1 year left before FA so "you're not getting anything significant anyway" since he'll only be available for a year And he'll be hitting Free Agency at the same time as all the other teams are spending their offseasons going after guys who are substantially better.

 

The only way this works that things give greater value is he comes out on a tear for the first half and you can move him at the deadline, but the downside risk is BABIP related. If he does everything right and gets slightly unlucky for the first 200 PAs, then he's worthless and costly and that's basically a coin flip. If you can get anything of tolerable value for him now, take it.

[greg775]

I think it's the exact opposite, there's little upside to keeping him. If he repeats 2017, then if you want to sign him next offseason it'll be a 9 figure deal because that's what he'll get a year later. If he repeats 2017, then if you wait until next offseason, you're trading him with only 1 year left before FA so "you're not getting anything significant anyway" since he'll only be available for a year And he'll be hitting Free Agency at the same time as all the other teams are spending their offseasons going after guys who are substantially better.

 

The only way this works that things give greater value is he comes out on a tear for the first half and you can move him at the deadline, but the downside risk is BABIP related. If he does everything right and gets slightly unlucky for the first 200 PAs, then he's worthless and costly and that's basically a coin flip. If you can get anything of tolerable value for him now, take it.

So the Sox can't afford any good ballplayers, is that it? We can't even afford Avi? Just sell the team, Jerry.

[Lip Man 1]

So the Sox can't afford any good ballplayers, is that it? We can't even afford Avi? Just sell the team, Jerry.

 

The jury is still out on if Avi is really a "good" player though isn't it? One year doers not a career make.

[greg775]

The jury is still out on if Avi is really a "good" player though isn't it? One year doers not a career make.

Kind of a bad answer. The grass is always greener on other teams I guess.

[ScootsMcGoots]

I can understand all the hype around Avi being traded. IF the Sox do intend on trading him, then I think they should wait until near the deadline to do that (or even afterwards, see 2017 examples like Verlander) so they can get real value back for him. But then yet again, what would you rather gamble on. An unproven prospect(s), or a seemingly resurrected professional player that is finally starting to live up to expectations (and is just entering his prime, and still fits our window to compete). Personally, unless Avi somehow becomes a clubhouse poison, I say keep the guy.

 

Then there is Abreu. As good as Abreu is on the field, I genuinely believe his influence inside that clubhouse has more value than anything right now, especially among the Latin players. Abreu morphed into a leader this year (I give a lot of credit to our new spanish-speaking manager for that). He is here to help Moncada and potentially Robert make their transitions to Chicago more smooth. We already saw his impact with a slumping Moncada this year. To me, Abreu is a no-brainer. His value goes way beyond what his numbers on the field show. These ballplayers are not just stats on a spreadsheet...there is a mental and emotional aspect to be considered as well, and Abreu is a key component to balancing that with his fellow countrymen. Not to mention, he could very well still be producing at high levels from 2020-2021. Extend him, Rick and co.

[Lip Man 1]

Kind of a bad answer. The grass is always greener on other teams I guess.

 

Don't understand your comment... all you have to do is look at his numbers over his career and specifically compare them to last year.

 

We don't know for sure if last year was a fluke or if he has actually figured something out and can be a really productive player.

 

Don't see what is "bad" about stating it that way unless it has to do with your comment about JR not wanting to pay anybody.

 

There is some truth to that comment in regards to paying for untapped potential (as in the minor leagues) and is not wanting to deal with certain agents, history has shown that as well as JR stating it himself, but I can only speak for myself in that if it was my decision I'd want more evidence that Avi really has turned things around before I offer him a truck load of money.

 

And even if he has I'd have to think twice about it...for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals.

[greg775]

To me, Abreu is a no-brainer. His value goes way beyond what his numbers on the field show. These ballplayers are not just stats on a spreadsheet...there is a mental and emotional aspect to be considered as well, and Abreu is a key component to balancing that with his fellow countrymen. Not to mention, he could very well still be producing at high levels from 2020-2021. Extend him, Rick and co.

You truly said it all. All I can say is the people who want him traded are in love with trades and the unknown and all the cliches that make sports fandom great but very frustrating to me. I'm not a "wait til next year" guy. I've heard it too many times. I want to win every year.

 

Don't understand your comment... all you have to do is look at his numbers over his career and specifically compare them to last year.

 

We don't know for sure if last year was a fluke or if he has actually figured something out and can be a really productive player.

 

Don't see what is "bad" about stating it that way unless it has to do with your comment about JR not wanting to pay anybody.

 

There is some truth to that comment in regards to paying for untapped potential (as in the minor leagues) and is not wanting to deal with certain agents, history has shown that as well as JR stating it himself, but I can only speak for myself in that if it was my decision I'd want more evidence that Avi really has turned things around before I offer him a truck load of money.

 

And even if he has I'd have to think twice about it...for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals.

Your post is very well thought out and reasonable especially compared to mine. I am intrigued by your closing line: "for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals." If this is truly true, you study the team more than me, then by all means dump him. I did not think he's that bad any more in any area. But if he does all these things poorly, he's not worth keeping around. What I saw was a very good player last year and I personally think we need some Sox veterans for our next WS contending team but again if you are right, dump him. Those are a lot of deficiencies you list.

[Lip Man 1]

You truly said it all. All I can say is the people who want him traded are in love with trades and the unknown and all the cliches that make sports fandom great but very frustrating to me. I'm not a "wait til next year" guy. I've heard it too many times. I want to win every year.

 

 

Your post is very well thought out and reasonable especially compared to mine. I am intrigued by your closing line: "for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals." If this is truly true, you study the team more than me, then by all means dump him. I did not think he's that bad any more in any area. But if he does all these things poorly, he's not worth keeping around. What I saw was a very good player last year and I personally think we need some Sox veterans for our next WS contending team but again if you are right, dump him. Those are a lot of deficiencies you list.

 

Greg:

 

Like everything else last year for him he got better in those areas but his fundamentals are still poor.His defense is not great, he'd be a better DH if his power numbers were better. Keeping him actually off the field is best for all concerned.

[Dick Allen]

Greg:

 

Like everything else last year for him he got better in those areas but his fundamentals are still poor.His defense is not great, he'd be a better DH if his power numbers were better. Keeping him actually off the field is best for all concerned.

They gave him enough chances. Just release him and get off my lawn.

[southsider2k5]

I think it's the exact opposite, there's little upside to keeping him. If he repeats 2017, then if you want to sign him next offseason it'll be a 9 figure deal because that's what he'll get a year later. If he repeats 2017, then if you wait until next offseason, you're trading him with only 1 year left before FA so "you're not getting anything significant anyway" since he'll only be available for a year And he'll be hitting Free Agency at the same time as all the other teams are spending their offseasons going after guys who are substantially better.

 

The only way this works that things give greater value is he comes out on a tear for the first half and you can move him at the deadline, but the downside risk is BABIP related. If he does everything right and gets slightly unlucky for the first 200 PAs, then he's worthless and costly and that's basically a coin flip. If you can get anything of tolerable value for him now, take it.

 

The problem is that teams have the same disincentives to trade for the guy.

[Balta1701]

The problem is that teams have the same disincentives to trade for the guy.

If you are a team that thinks you are close to competitive right now and next year, and you miss out on or can't afford Stanton, what are your other options like right now? JD Martinez is looking for huge money, Lorenzo Cain is a strong player, Jay Bruce is probably comparable but is a lot older, and then as outfielders the next guys who played full seasons are Carlos Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera. If your team thinks you're competitive right now and you mis out on Stanton and Martinez, you don't have a lot of options.

[Jack Parkman]

If you are a team that thinks you are close to competitive right now and next year, and you miss out on or can't afford Stanton, what are your other options like right now? JD Martinez is looking for huge money, Lorenzo Cain is a strong player, Jay Bruce is probably comparable but is a lot older, and then as outfielders the next guys who played full seasons are Carlos Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera. If your team thinks you're competitive right now and you mis out on Stanton and Martinez, you don't have a lot of options.

I'd take a shot on CarGo before giving up assets for Avi. and Melky's 2017 is about what you can expect from Avi if he doesn't go back to sucking. There really isn't that much of an incentive to trade for Avi. If I were an opposing GM, looking at corner OF in the market I'd take Melky/CarGo over Avi, I just don't believe in him going forward. The .392 BABIP is insane and a regression probably brings him back to below replacement level. Really, I don't think anyone is interested in him except if they can get him for basically free. It only takes one sucker though, and Kudos to Hahn if he finds that guy. I think the Sox start the season with both Abreu and Avi on the roster, because I don't think anyone would give anything of value for a DH and a regressed Avi. Think about what the Sox got for Melky, because that is the return I'd expect if they move Avi, and both Avi/Abreu are worth more to the Sox than they are to anyone else.

 

.285/.324/.746 17 HR 85 RBI 99 OPS+ 98 wRC+ -Melky Cabrera in 2017. This is about the best case scenario I can envision for Avi in 2018.

Think about if you'd trade anything of value for that production with only 2 seasons of team control.

Edited November 27, 2017 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And even if he has I'd have to think twice about it...for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals.

This seems overly harsh as if we were not watching the same player. Not only did Avi hit .330 but he probably had his best defensive season and while still not a good fielder he is now adequate. He also possesses a very good arm and runners do not often attempt to take an extra base on him as evidenced by a good assist total.

 

As far as base running he is not a legitimate 20 stolen base threat but he does have very good speed. He was among league leaders in infield hits and that is because of a combination of speed and hustle. No one hustles down the 1st base line like Avi does. If a fielder hesitated at all Avi made many plays much closer than they should 've been and actually beat out a few.This was due to his off field conditioning and lost weight.

 

I certainly understand how the past can influence your thinking about Avi but I think you haven't looked at his overall improvement with an open mind or an attempt to dig a little deeper.

[greg775]

I'd take a shot on CarGo before giving up assets for Avi. and Melky's 2017 is about what you can expect from Avi if he doesn't go back to sucking. There really isn't that much of an incentive to trade for Avi. If I were an opposing GM, looking at corner OF in the market I'd take Melky/CarGo over Avi, I just don't believe in him going forward. The .392 BABIP is insane and a regression probably brings him back to below replacement level. Really, I don't think anyone is interested in him except if they can get him for basically free. It only takes one sucker though, and Kudos to Hahn if he finds that guy. I think the Sox start the season with both Abreu and Avi on the roster, because I don't think anyone would give anything of value for a DH and a regressed Avi. Think about what the Sox got for Melky, because that is the return I'd expect if they move Avi, and both Avi/Abreu are worth more to the Sox than they are to anyone else.

 

.285/.324/.746 17 HR 85 RBI 99 OPS+ 98 wRC+ -Melky Cabrera in 2017. This is about the best case scenario I can envision for Avi in 2018.

Think about if you'd trade anything of value for that production with only 2 seasons of team control.

You'd want Melky over Avi? I still am waiting to see what established (non prospects) baseball players you guys think are good players and want on your team (and don't list anybody making a good dollar cause we know Sox fans don't want to pay anybody). Modern day fans slay me. Eventually I'm gonna give up and just lurk on here. I am growing weary of defending White Sox baseball players who have been in the bigs a few years.

[Bob Sacamano]

You'd want Melky over Avi? I still am waiting to see what established (non prospects) baseball players you guys think are good players and want on your team (and don't list anybody making a good dollar cause we know Sox fans don't want to pay anybody). Modern day fans slay me. Eventually I'm gonna give up and just lurk on here. I am growing weary of defending White Sox baseball players who have been in the bigs a few years.

 

You're too funny.

[hogan873]

You'd want Melky over Avi? I still am waiting to see what established (non prospects) baseball players you guys think are good players and want on your team (and don't list anybody making a good dollar cause we know Sox fans don't want to pay anybody). Modern day fans slay me. Eventually I'm gonna give up and just lurk on here. I am growing weary of defending White Sox baseball players who have been in the bigs a few years.

So, you haven't read any of the posts regarding Sox fans wanting the Sox to pursue big free agents like Machado and Harper? Just about all fans on this board want the Sox to spend, and many are in touch enough to realize that they will.