The Avi Thread

[wrathofhahn]

trade market now appears to be holding up free agent market. lots of big names being mentioned in trades, though no certainty many of them will move: machado, mccutchen, abreu, cole, duffy, archer, longoria, avisail, colome, herrera, harrison, kipnis, hernandez, merrifield, etc.

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/942850466874101760

Translation Boras is sweating bricks but who the f cares. Cry me a river Heyman (aka Boras mouthpiece)

[GGajewski18]

@JonHeyman

36m36 minutes ago

#SFGiants need 1, 2 or maybe 3 outfielders. so here's a rundown of the many, many options via trades and/or free agency.

 

Giants looking for multiple outfielders and have had interest in Avi.

 

My proposal would be Ramos, Reynolds, and Fernandez for Avi.

 

Or would you guys be willing to take on Pence for one year and relief some money for the Giants in hopes to get better prospects back and then flip Pence at the deadline?

[Dam8610]

@JonHeyman

36m36 minutes ago

#SFGiants need 1, 2 or maybe 3 outfielders. so here's a rundown of the many, many options via trades and/or free agency.

 

Giants looking for multiple outfielders and have had interest in Avi.

 

My proposal would be Ramos, Reynolds, and Fernandez for Avi.

 

Or would you guys be willing to take on Pence for one year and relief some money for the Giants in hopes to get better prospects back and then flip Pence at the deadline?

 

If the Sox are trading Avi to the Giants, I want Ramos. He and 2 lottery tickets would work for me.

[fathom]

Ramos has been untouchable in trade talks. They wouldn't give him up for Hamilton, and he's a better fit for them

[wrathofhahn]

Ramos has been untouchable in trade talks. They wouldn't give him up for Hamilton, and he's a better fit for them

 

 

They don't have any depth. At some point if they want to make deals they'll move him

[bmags]

Ramos is the only giant that is remotely interesting to me. His highlight film at the draft was awesome.

 

Maybe you want a light power, weak armed CF prospect in Bryan Reynolds? Some slow, poor OBP outfielders?

 

It's ramos and a bunch of questionable SP that are likely BP arms. blech.

[Balta1701]

Ramos is the only giant that is remotely interesting to me. His highlight film at the draft was awesome.

 

Maybe you want a light power, weak armed CF prospect in Bryan Reynolds? Some slow, poor OBP outfielders?

 

It's ramos and a bunch of questionable SP that are likely BP arms. blech.

If we're not going to extend Garcia, are we going to get better than that at the deadline? Maybe if he's on fire the first half again, but the tiniest slump in the first half or a minor injury and that's better than anything we'll get for him next offseason.

[bmags]

If we're not going to extend Garcia, are we going to get better than that at the deadline? Maybe if he's on fire the first half again, but the tiniest slump in the first half or a minor injury and that's better than anything we'll get for him next offseason.

 

okay let's play some game theory.

 

- We trade Avi Garcia now in a terrible sellers market for a 50 FV, 22 year old average speed light armed outfielder and pray that he finds power or an arm.

- We hold Avi and he sucks, and we have to hope that Alex Call fills the void for 22 year old average speed light armed outfielders. We non-tender Avi.

- We hold avi and he's great, and we trade him for maybe the same sort of outfielder or a backend starter.

- We hold avi and he's great, and he stays great and then he leaves at FA

- We hold avi and he's great and stays great and then we re-sign him.

 

I look at all of these and see very little difference between the first 3 bullets to care. I choose door number 4 where we just get more time to evaluate, knowing that I risked very little.

 

We risked a lot holding on to Quintana and it paid off. We risk very little holding onto Abreu and Avi. I'm just not threatened by the stakes.

[fathom]

I still wish we give Avi a chance to show if he can improve once again. Nothing to lose with the minimal packages we are seeing for guys like him.

[Balta1701]

okay let's play some game theory.

 

- We trade Avi Garcia now in a terrible sellers market for a 50 FV, 22 year old average speed light armed outfielder and pray that he finds power or an arm.

- We hold Avi and he sucks, and we have to hope that Alex Call fills the void for 22 year old average speed light armed outfielders. We non-tender Avi.

- We hold avi and he's great, and we trade him for maybe the same sort of outfielder or a backend starter.

- We hold avi and he's great, and he stays great and then he leaves at FA

- We hold avi and he's great and stays great and then we re-sign him.

 

I look at all of these and see very little difference between the first 3 bullets to care. I choose door number 4 where we just get more time to evaluate, knowing that I risked very little.

 

We risked a lot holding on to Quintana and it paid off. We risk very little holding onto Abreu and Avi. I'm just not threatened by the stakes.

Then my one remaining question is - are we confident that, after 2019, we have the resources available to replace Garcia and Abreu?

 

Because that's my main issue. This team is going to look like a force going into 2020. But, if our 1b and corner OF, and the #4 and #5 hitters in our lineup depart as free agents, a team that should look like a force is going to be trying to plug holes rather than trying to get better.

 

I'm uncertain whether or not we will. In that case, the one thing your math is missing is - playing Avi prevents us from playing and developing potential replacements for Avi.

[Jake]

Unless the Sox are very confident among their pro scouts that Avi's 2017 was a fluke, it makes little sense to trade him now

[bmags]

Then my one remaining question is - are we confident that, after 2019, we have the resources available to replace Garcia and Abreu?

 

Because that's my main issue. This team is going to look like a force going into 2020. But, if our 1b and corner OF, and the #4 and #5 hitters in our lineup depart as free agents, a team that should look like a force is going to be trying to plug holes rather than trying to get better.

 

I'm uncertain whether or not we will. In that case, the one thing your math is missing is - playing Avi prevents us from playing and developing potential replacements for Avi.

 

I am certain that we will for a big main reason: Real actual continued depression of veteran corner OF/1b market

 

Do I see that turning? not really.

 

[bmags]

We have no DH. We can easily cycle plenty of playing time among 3-4 corner outfielders, DH, and AAA to evaluate. If the dodgers can find playing time for 40 actual major leaguers, prettys ure we can find playing time for our 4-5AAAA bats.

[Balta1701]

I am certain that we will for a big main reason: Real actual continued depression of veteran corner OF/1b market

 

Do I see that turning? not really.

Let's see what happens to Martinez and Hosmer. You could darn well be right and post-Cespedes the market for any OF who isn't an MVP candidate could be on the verge of collapse, and that would include both of our guys.

[wrathofhahn]

Ramos is the only giant that is remotely interesting to me. His highlight film at the draft was awesome.

 

Maybe you want a light power, weak armed CF prospect in Bryan Reynolds? Some slow, poor OBP outfielders?

 

It's ramos and a bunch of questionable SP that are likely BP arms. blech.

 

If the Giants need two OF maybe you include Leury Garcia. I mean the other problem with holding onto Garcia is at some point you are going to callup Eloy he's probably already ready. Probably one of Rutherford or Robert or Adolfo gets called up as well.

 

How much value are these guys going to have at that point? I'll answer none. If you get a good deal you move them. Find a placeholder to hold the fort until September.

[Balta1701]

If the Giants need two OF maybe you include Leury Garcia. I mean the other problem with holding onto Garcia is at some point you are going to callup Eloy he's probably already ready. Probably one of Rutherford or Robert or Adolfo gets called up as well.

 

How much value are these guys going to have at that point? I'll answer none. If you get a good deal you move them. Find a placeholder to hold the fort until September.

None of those 3 should sniff the big leagues this year. The thing who should not be named will be called up pretty early. Aside from him though, we've got Leury, Cordell (if healthy), Engel (can he hit at all?), and Delmonico at the very least, maybe with more guys than that, who it would be nice to get PAs for. Hopefully one of them sets themselves apart early and this is easy, but if Garcia is there, even counting the DH spot (where we might want to play both Davidson and Gillaspie), we've got 6 big league level ballplayers and only 3-4 spots.

 

[wrathofhahn]

None of those 3 should sniff the big leagues this year. The thing who should not be named will be called up pretty early. Aside from him though, we've got Leury, Cordell (if healthy), Engel (can he hit at all?), and Delmonico at the very least, maybe with more guys than that, who it would be nice to get PAs for. Hopefully one of them sets themselves apart early and this is easy, but if Garcia is there, even counting the DH spot (where we might want to play both Davidson and Gillaspie), we've got 6 big league level ballplayers and only 3-4 spots.

 

I mean it seemed the FO wanted to have a look at Tilson last year not sure his health status. Creating some space would also give the FO the chance to evaluate some of the older guys Cordell.

 

I mentioned September for that reason but I don't think you can really keep any of those guys down if they are playing well in AA. Which I suspect one of them will. I mean there is just so much depth organizationally when it comes to OF including Basabe who I didn't even mention.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I mean it seemed the FO wanted to have a look at Tilson last year not sure his health status. Creating some space would also give the FO the chance to evaluate some of the older guys Cordell.

 

I mentioned September for that reason but I don't think you can really keep any of those guys down if they are playing well in AA. Which I suspect one of them will. I mean there is just so much depth organizationally when it comes to OF including Basabe who I didn't even mention.

I don't think any of the names you mentioned/that I bolded will even start the season at AA. I'd call it a successful year if any of them got there, frankly. Adolfo is probably on a path to Winston-Salem, High-A ball, after spending last year in low-A, Hahn says Winston Salem or even maybe starting at Kannapolis for Robert, Rutherford was crap at Kanny last year and so I'd guess he may start there this year; getting to W-S would be a strong sign for him.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't think any of the names you mentioned/that I bolded will even start the season at AA. I'd call it a successful year if any of them got there, frankly. Adolfo is probably on a path to Winston-Salem, High-A ball, after spending last year in low-A, Hahn says Winston Salem or even maybe starting at Kannapolis for Robert, Rutherford was crap at Kanny last year and so I'd guess he may start there this year; getting to W-S would be a strong sign for him.

 

I was about to say the same thing. Thanks for saving me time.

[bmags]

How I'd handle the OF:

Opening Day

Leury

Cordell

Engel

Garcia

Delmonico

 

AAA

Tilson

W Garcia

Gillaspie

May

 

If any of Tilson or Gillaspie tear up AAA, we find space. But we prioritize Cordell/Delmonico and give them the space to show off. Some Arizona performance can play on this.

 

But doesn't this seem manageable even with Avi? I think we can find plenty of ABs even if all stay healthy.

 

edit: SHould be clear I through Gillaspie in there to show he would not compete with DH.

[Balta1701]

But doesn't this seem manageable even with Avi? I think we can find plenty of ABs even if all stay healthy.

It does - that's 5 guys for 3 positions, not counting the DH.

 

The problem is Jiminez. He will not be down for long and he will not be a part time player when he comes up. Someone will have to leave from that group after 2 months because Jiminez is taking one of those starting positions. So who only gets 2 months as a part time player to sink or swim?

[wrathofhahn]

I don't think any of the names you mentioned/that I bolded will even start the season at AA. I'd call it a successful year if any of them got there, frankly. Adolfo is probably on a path to Winston-Salem, High-A ball, after spending last year in low-A, Hahn says Winston Salem or even maybe starting at Kannapolis for Robert, Rutherford was crap at Kanny last year and so I'd guess he may start there this year; getting to W-S would be a strong sign for him.

 

 

It all depends on how they hit and how quickly they progress through the system but Adolfo been in the minors for what going on his 4th year. Rutherford his 3rd. Basabe is what going on his 6th year.

 

I mean of the guys mentioned probably Basabe and Adolfo have the best chance if they hit but I wouldn't be shocked to see one of the guys sort of pull a Devers either.

 

But yeah looking at it more closely you are probably right the ideal timetable is probably after next year.

Edited December 21, 2017 by wrathofhahn

[bmags]

It does - that's 5 guys for 3 positions, not counting the DH.

 

The problem is Jiminez. He will not be down for long and he will not be a part time player when he comes up. Someone will have to leave from that group after 2 months because Jiminez is taking one of those starting positions. So who only gets 2 months as a part time player to sink or swim?

 

See I think it's do or die for Cordell and Delmonico to establish themselves as every day players in the first 3 months. There are tiers to prospects and some dont have the luxury to develop at MLB level because they are older and required more development in minors.

[Eminor3rd]

If the Sox are trading Avi to the Giants, I want Ramos. He and 2 lottery tickets would work for me.

 

Definitely -- Ramos is the get there. It could be Ramos straight up and I think I'd be happy.

[Balta1701]

See I think it's do or die for Cordell and Delmonico to establish themselves as every day players in the first 3 months. There are tiers to prospects and some dont have the luxury to develop at MLB level because they are older and required more development in minors.

Then they have to be playing almost every day to start the year. See the issue? We have one too many OFs to make this work. We could really use Garcia's spot to play both of them. Or remove Davidson to clear the DH spot. Or something.