The Avi Thread

[Dunt]

And even if he has I'd have to think twice about it...for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals.

 

He actually graded out as an above average base runner last season, but you know, narrative.

[Bob Sacamano]

You'd want Melky over Avi? I still am waiting to see what established (non prospects) baseball players you guys think are good players and want on your team (and don't list anybody making a good dollar cause we know Sox fans don't want to pay anybody). Modern day fans slay me. Eventually I'm gonna give up and just lurk on here. I am growing weary of defending White Sox baseball players who have been in the bigs a few years.

 

In the sense that you'd have to give up good prospects for 2 years of one (who has had only had one great season among a lot of meh) instead of just a small amount of cash for the other for one or two years, yes.

[greg775]

So, you haven't read any of the posts regarding Sox fans wanting the Sox to pursue big free agents like Machado and Harper? Just about all fans on this board want the Sox to spend, and many are in touch enough to realize that they will.

Machado and Harper? Cmon. The Sox do not sign guys to 10 year deals. They just don't. Wanting to sign those guys is dreamland. It's not based anywhere close to reality. Tell me names of guys Sox fans want to pay 15 mill a year to for 5 years or so. I'll point out flaws in those players. Hosmer? Not enuf power. Moustakas? Injury risk cause of conditioning. Cain? Too old. Those are just some examples. Abreu? Too old. Avi? Flash in the pan. He'll never repeat those stats.

Edited November 28, 2017 by greg775

[Lip Man 1]

He actually graded out as an above average base runner last season, but you know, narrative.

 

Dunt: Right, there's a way to accurately measure how a guy runs the bases, the decision making thought process for each one and factors in the decision making process of the players on defense when said player is running the bases.

 

SIGN ME UP!

 

Stats = narrative.

 

 

[iamshack]

Machado and Harper? Cmon. The Sox do not sign guys to 10 year deals. They just don't. Wanting to sign those guys is dreamland. It's not based anywhere close to reality. Tell me names of guys Sox fans want to pay 15 mill a year to for 5 years or so. I'll point out flaws in those players. Hosmer? Not enuf power. Moustakas? Injury risk cause of conditioning. Cain? Too old. Those are just some examples. Abreu? Too old. Avi? Flash in the pan. He'll never repeat those stats.

Yeah, and the Sox don't make big trades with the Cubs, and they would never give $50 million to an international FA, either. And they would absolutely NEVER, EVER rebuild.

[bmags]

Dunt: Right, there's a way to accurately measure how a guy runs the bases, the decision making thought process for each one and factors in the decision making process of the players on defense when said player is running the bases.

 

SIGN ME UP!

 

Stats = narrative.

 

Right, your own judgment based on the camera views you are afforded in the games you happen to watch seem much more reliable.

[hogan873]

Machado and Harper? Cmon. The Sox do not sign guys to 10 year deals. They just don't. Wanting to sign those guys is dreamland. It's not based anywhere close to reality. Tell me names of guys Sox fans want to pay 15 mill a year to for 5 years or so. I'll point out flaws in those players. Hosmer? Not enuf power. Moustakas? Injury risk cause of conditioning. Cain? Too old. Those are just some examples. Abreu? Too old. Avi? Flash in the pan. He'll never repeat those stats.

I didn't say the Sox WILL sign Machado or Harper. I said that there has been plenty of talk by fans about guys like that. However, I do believe the Sox will pursue guys like that, and they will spend during next off season. I don't know if they will get one of those guys, but it's more possible now than ever with the rebuild going the way it is.

 

So what do you want the Sox to do? What do you expect them to do? You say you want them to win, but you haven't suggested how they can do it.

[Bob Sacamano]

Machado and Harper? Cmon. The Sox do not sign guys to 10 year deals. They just don't. Wanting to sign those guys is dreamland. It's not based anywhere close to reality. Tell me names of guys Sox fans want to pay 15 mill a year to for 5 years or so. I'll point out flaws in those players. Hosmer? Not enuf power. Moustakas? Injury risk cause of conditioning. Cain? Too old. Those are just some examples. Abreu? Too old. Avi? Flash in the pan. He'll never repeat those stats.

 

This wasn't the point. You said no one here says we should sign established players. That is not true.

[Lip Man 1]

Right, your own judgment based on the camera views you are afforded in the games you happen to watch seem much more reliable.

 

As reliable as a nebulous unquantifiable stat based formula in my opinion...yes.

 

Both are based on judgments that aren't 100% accurate but in this case I trust what I see far more.

[Bob Sacamano]

As reliable as a nebulous unquantifiable stat based formula in my opinion...yes.

 

Both are based on judgments that aren't 100% accurate but in this case I trust what I see far more.

 

As much as I might agree with you on this, the eye test shows he really isn't a bad base runner IMO.

[Jack Parkman]

Actually I'm against signing Free Agents to big deals in almost all cases except for the special ones like Harper/Machado or using past cases that I would have been ok with at the time, Manny Ramirez and A-Rod. The huge thing with those guys is that they are in their mid-20s and you don't get the decline years, and if you have to give them a few extra years at the end, you can make them like 12-15MM years, and balance it out by front loading it. For me, value shopping in FA only, 4 year or less contracts, build from within as best as you can. If the "window" is short, so be it. Better to have that flexibility than to have a bunch of money tied up in aging former stars, and be rebuilding anyway. See Detroit for a contrast. Big FA contracts almost always end up badly.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Jack Parkman

[Rowand44]

Yeah, and the Sox don't make big trades with the Cubs, and they would never give $50 million to an international FA, either. And they would absolutely NEVER, EVER rebuild.

Nailed it.

[Balta1701]

Actually I'm against signing Free Agents to big deals in almost all cases except for the special ones like Harper/Machado or using past cases that I would have been ok with at the time, Manny Ramirez and A-Rod. The huge thing with those guys is that they are in their mid-20s and you don't get the decline years, and if you have to give them a few extra years at the end, you can make them like 12-15MM years, and balance it out by front loading it. For me, value shopping in FA only, 4 year or less contracts, build from within as best as you can. If the "window" is short, so be it. Better to have that flexibility than to have a bunch of money tied up in aging former stars, and be rebuilding anyway. See Detroit for a contrast. Big FA contracts almost always end up badly.

My perspective on the current FA market is a little different. Based on my view of the last few years, I think you need to understand that any free agent signing is a huge gamble, and this totally includes guys who are in their 20s who you would think have many productive years left. Jayson Heyward, Chris Davis have been utter and complete busts despite signing contracts at age 27 and 29. The difference is - if you offered both of those teams a guaranteed chance to undo every move they made since the start of the 2016 offseason, one of them would say yes and one would say "no we like this trophy".

 

Take a look at what the Cubs did, what the Astros did. They started off by building loaded rosters from within. Multiple, home grown, young all stars on each squad. They then went out to the FA market in strong positions, looking to fill a handful of pieces rather than needing to reshape their club. The Cubs signed Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist. Out of those 3, Heyward has been a serious disappointment, Zobrist had one decent year and flopped in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal, Lester has been the best of them but he now looks like a pitcher who might be declining and he has 3 more years and $75 million more guaranteed.

 

The Astros signed Beltran, Reddick, and Charlie Morton. Reddick and Morton probably overperformed and Beltran Underperformed.

 

What is in common? Each of those teams was ready to go and filling holes. They were strong enough that if the guy they brought in wasn't the best in baseball, it didn't cost them a title. The Giants wasted a lot of money on a poor Hunter Pence this year, they suffered through a rough season, but you think they like that 2014 trophy?

 

Contrast that with what the Tigers did. The Tigers were signing big money FAs as a way to stay relevant and maybe increase their window. Or the Orioles or Mariners - they're always signing big money FAs to try to fight against the tide. They don't want to wait to be competitive, they think they're just 3-4 players away from being competitive. But, if you have to go out and sign 3-4 players, you better have an answer for how you'll win if 2 of them bust. If you're trying to extend your window a-la the Tigers, you better be ready for the guys you sign to be dragging you down in only a couple years.

 

That was the lesson of the 2015-2016 white sox. They were teams trying to piece together a contender out of one or two good players and a whole bunch of FA signings. With such a weak core to the team, they couldn't even sustain .500 records if any of the guys they signed underperformed. Melky Cabrera comes out magically weaker in 2015 after signing his contract, LaRoche flops, and all of a sudden their offense is flat and they have no solutions to how to fix it.

 

If you want to play this FA market, you have to understand you're playing a sucker's bet. If you are going after Harper, great, but understand that you have to have a team around him ready to go. The modern FA market will not build your team, things are too expensive and there is too little value. You have to not care if you lose money on the deal, you have to expect it. If you're signing Harper, you have to expect that the last 5 years could be a complete flop and NOT CARE. If you're signing Machado, and he hits a wall at age 29, you have to NOT CARE. That is the only way to win this market if you're bidding for guys. Be ready to win a world series without them and have them be the icing on the cake. It's the only way.

[Eminor3rd]

Dunt: Right, there's a way to accurately measure how a guy runs the bases, the decision making thought process for each one and factors in the decision making process of the players on defense when said player is running the bases.

 

SIGN ME UP!

 

Stats = narrative.

 

Do you even know how it works?

 

Here's UBR: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

[Jack Parkman]

My perspective on the current FA market is a little different. Based on my view of the last few years, I think you need to understand that any free agent signing is a huge gamble, and this totally includes guys who are in their 20s who you would think have many productive years left. Jayson Heyward, Chris Davis have been utter and complete busts despite signing contracts at age 27 and 29. The difference is - if you offered both of those teams a guaranteed chance to undo every move they made since the start of the 2016 offseason, one of them would say yes and one would say "no we like this trophy".

 

Take a look at what the Cubs did, what the Astros did. They started off by building loaded rosters from within. Multiple, home grown, young all stars on each squad. They then went out to the FA market in strong positions, looking to fill a handful of pieces rather than needing to reshape their club. The Cubs signed Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist. Out of those 3, Heyward has been a serious disappointment, Zobrist had one decent year and flopped in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal, Lester has been the best of them but he now looks like a pitcher who might be declining and he has 3 more years and $75 million more guaranteed.

 

The Astros signed Beltran, Reddick, and Charlie Morton. Reddick and Morton probably overperformed and Beltran Underperformed.

 

What is in common? Each of those teams was ready to go and filling holes. They were strong enough that if the guy they brought in wasn't the best in baseball, it didn't cost them a title. The Giants wasted a lot of money on a poor Hunter Pence this year, they suffered through a rough season, but you think they like that 2014 trophy?

 

Contrast that with what the Tigers did. The Tigers were signing big money FAs as a way to stay relevant and maybe increase their window. Or the Orioles or Mariners - they're always signing big money FAs to try to fight against the tide. They don't want to wait to be competitive, they think they're just 3-4 players away from being competitive. But, if you have to go out and sign 3-4 players, you better have an answer for how you'll win if 2 of them bust. If you're trying to extend your window a-la the Tigers, you better be ready for the guys you sign to be dragging you down in only a couple years.

 

That was the lesson of the 2015-2016 white sox. They were teams trying to piece together a contender out of one or two good players and a whole bunch of FA signings. With such a weak core to the team, they couldn't even sustain .500 records if any of the guys they signed underperformed. Melky Cabrera comes out magically weaker in 2015 after signing his contract, LaRoche flops, and all of a sudden their offense is flat and they have no solutions to how to fix it.

 

If you want to play this FA market, you have to understand you're playing a sucker's bet. If you are going after Harper, great, but understand that you have to have a team around him ready to go. The modern FA market will not build your team, things are too expensive and there is too little value. You have to not care if you lose money on the deal, you have to expect it. If you're signing Harper, you have to expect that the last 5 years could be a complete flop and NOT CARE. If you're signing Machado, and he hits a wall at age 29, you have to NOT CARE. That is the only way to win this market if you're bidding for guys. Be ready to win a world series without them and have them be the icing on the cake. It's the only way.

Completely agree, and people have to look at their own team's pending free agents the same way. It is almost never a good idea to sign anybody on the market to more than a 2-3 year deal, and even that could be bad.

[Eminor3rd]

My perspective on the current FA market is a little different. Based on my view of the last few years, I think you need to understand that any free agent signing is a huge gamble, and this totally includes guys who are in their 20s who you would think have many productive years left. Jayson Heyward, Chris Davis have been utter and complete busts despite signing contracts at age 27 and 29. The difference is - if you offered both of those teams a guaranteed chance to undo every move they made since the start of the 2016 offseason, one of them would say yes and one would say "no we like this trophy".

 

Take a look at what the Cubs did, what the Astros did. They started off by building loaded rosters from within. Multiple, home grown, young all stars on each squad. They then went out to the FA market in strong positions, looking to fill a handful of pieces rather than needing to reshape their club. The Cubs signed Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist. Out of those 3, Heyward has been a serious disappointment, Zobrist had one decent year and flopped in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal, Lester has been the best of them but he now looks like a pitcher who might be declining and he has 3 more years and $75 million more guaranteed.

 

The Astros signed Beltran, Reddick, and Charlie Morton. Reddick and Morton probably overperformed and Beltran Underperformed.

 

What is in common? Each of those teams was ready to go and filling holes. They were strong enough that if the guy they brought in wasn't the best in baseball, it didn't cost them a title. The Giants wasted a lot of money on a poor Hunter Pence this year, they suffered through a rough season, but you think they like that 2014 trophy?

 

Contrast that with what the Tigers did. The Tigers were signing big money FAs as a way to stay relevant and maybe increase their window. Or the Orioles or Mariners - they're always signing big money FAs to try to fight against the tide. They don't want to wait to be competitive, they think they're just 3-4 players away from being competitive. But, if you have to go out and sign 3-4 players, you better have an answer for how you'll win if 2 of them bust. If you're trying to extend your window a-la the Tigers, you better be ready for the guys you sign to be dragging you down in only a couple years.

 

That was the lesson of the 2015-2016 white sox. They were teams trying to piece together a contender out of one or two good players and a whole bunch of FA signings. With such a weak core to the team, they couldn't even sustain .500 records if any of the guys they signed underperformed. Melky Cabrera comes out magically weaker in 2015 after signing his contract, LaRoche flops, and all of a sudden their offense is flat and they have no solutions to how to fix it.

 

If you want to play this FA market, you have to understand you're playing a sucker's bet. If you are going after Harper, great, but understand that you have to have a team around him ready to go. The modern FA market will not build your team, things are too expensive and there is too little value. You have to not care if you lose money on the deal, you have to expect it. If you're signing Harper, you have to expect that the last 5 years could be a complete flop and NOT CARE. If you're signing Machado, and he hits a wall at age 29, you have to NOT CARE. That is the only way to win this market if you're bidding for guys. Be ready to win a world series without them and have them be the icing on the cake. It's the only way.

 

Great post. I'll also add that people get too caught up on length of contract. There's a reason that max AAV's essentially haven't increased AT ALL since Alex Rodriguez's original deal -- it's because it's the total contract value that matters way more to ownership. It was going to cost the Angels $240mm to get Albert Pujols -- it doesn't matter if it was over 10 years or four years.

 

The owners HAVE the money, it's just a question of when they write the checks. Because of inflation, it's actually better to defer the payments to later, and for GMs, it helps them stay under the luxury tax too. When people say "I don't mind the $25mm, I just mind the eight years" or whatever, they need to realize that if it was five years, you WOULD mind the AAV. As a team, you might as well spread the cost out -- it allows you to benefit from inflation and gives you the chance to continue to benefit from the player longer, even in a diminished role. All the money to guaranteed was gone the day you signed the deal regardless of how long the deal goes.

 

This is also why it's EXTREMELY dumb to say "The X team is paying him $25mm, they aren't going to bench him/they need to see a return on that investment." Once a guy's roster spot becomes worth more than his performance, it makes all the sense in the world to release him. To continue to allow the player suck wins from you actually REDUCES your ROI. You aren't "eating money" to let him go, you already spent that money long ago. There's no additional cost.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Eminor3rd

[greg775]

I didn't say the Sox WILL sign Machado or Harper. I said that there has been plenty of talk by fans about guys like that. However, I do believe the Sox will pursue guys like that, and they will spend during next off season. I don't know if they will get one of those guys, but it's more possible now than ever with the rebuild going the way it is.

 

So what do you want the Sox to do? What do you expect them to do? You say you want them to win, but you haven't suggested how they can do it.

I'm surprised you are asking. My position has been deemed tired and boring and everybody knows it. What I preferred to do before? Keep Sale and Q and actually have a manager who can manage and instead of signing guys like LaRoche have scouts who can sign the right guys. I thought we had 2 great starters and should have been able to compete with a competent front office. ... But now that we've rebuilt? I want to let these young guys develop and come up as soon as possible and see if we can win with them while also signing the right free agents to build a bullpen. Of course I'd love to sign the guy from Japan but that's a dream. In short, now that we are rebuilding I'd like to keep Abreu and Avi, have somebody in charge of building a bullpen for when we are contenders and of course sign a veteran starting pitcher at that time to go with the young staff. I now want a mixture that includes Avi and Abreu. Ideally, I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody but for the future: 3B-Burger/Davidson. SS-Tim. 2B-Moncada. 1B-Abreu. OF-Avi, Robert, Rutherford, Eloy, Polo, et all. DH-one of the outfielders or Avi. C-free agent acquistiion or is his name Collins? I think so. P-The plethora of guys to pick from including of course all the big names we acquired including the guy from the Cubs. Put Coop in charge of figuring out which guys to put in the pen.

Since we have done the rebuild I am ready to develop the guys and include Avi and Abreu while also realizing SOMEBODY must have a master plan involving the pen or we win nothing. Right now since we did do the rebuild, my only outrageous position (one that greg tends to rehash over and over and get upset about) is to NOT get rid of Avi or Abreu. Include them in the rebuild because greg feels you need a mixture and I feel those two guys are already in-house and actually from all indications are good intangible guys as well as players. They care and Abreu is good with teammates especially. I've heard nothing bad about Avi in that regard either. THAT IS MY STANCE.

 

p.s.: I don't see how any logical intelligent Sox fan (and there are many on here) can a.) think I'm unreasonable. b.) think I'm insane. c.) think I'm a troll when I laid out what I consider a very reasonable viewpoint. I don't consider it a trollish viewpoint or viewpoint of anything but a concerned Sox fan. Notice I don't harp on anger at the rebuild. I presented my plan while accepting the rebuild.

 

Actually I'm against signing Free Agents to big deals in almost all cases except for the special ones like Harper/Machado or using past cases that I would have been ok with at the time, Manny Ramirez and A-Rod. The huge thing with those guys is that they are in their mid-20s and you don't get the decline years, and if you have to give them a few extra years at the end, you can make them like 12-15MM years, and balance it out by front loading it. For me, value shopping in FA only, 4 year or less contracts, build from within as best as you can. If the "window" is short, so be it. Better to have that flexibility than to have a bunch of money tied up in aging former stars, and be rebuilding anyway. See Detroit for a contrast. Big FA contracts almost always end up badly.

In other words you proved my point. Sox fans don't want to spend money. Machado and Harper love doesn't count. We aint getting them.

Edited November 28, 2017 by greg775

[hi8is]

In other words you proved my point. Sox fans don't want to spend money. Machado and Harper love doesn't count. We aint getting them.

Holy "taking things out of context," Batman!

[Kyyle23]

Holy "taking things out of context," Batman!

 

not greg. certainly you arent speaking of greg of the 775

[greg775]

not greg. certainly you arent speaking of greg of the 775

Why won't you guys comment on my position and my post? I really want to hear what out of all my position entails is wrong or not at least very logical.

[Bob Sacamano]

Why won't you guys comment on my position and my post? I really want to hear what out of all my position entails is wrong or not at least very logical.

 

Because we've been commenting on your position for almost a year now. We are kinda tired of it. It's not our fault you ignore what we say and continue to blindly post.

Edited November 28, 2017 by soxfan2014

[hi8is]

Because we've been commenting on your position for almost a year now. We are kinda tired of it. It's not our fault you ignore what we say and continue to blindly post.

I actually thought that his recently stated position showed some change. Seems to me that ( at least in that post ), he's on board with the same plan that management is executing.

[Kyyle23]

Why won't you guys comment on my position and my post? I really want to hear what out of all my position entails is wrong or not at least very logical.

 

you dont read responses. You skim them, say "good post" if someone agrees with you, and then move on and repeat yourself without taking anything anyone has said to you into consideration.

 

I dont even know why i wrote that to be honest

 

 

I actually thought that his recently stated position showed some change. Seems to me that ( at least in that post ), he's on board with the same plan that management is executing.

 

he acknowledges the rebuild. He certainly doesnt support it or try to understand it

[ptatc]

Do you even know how it works?

 

Here's UBR: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

This stats looks at base running as a pure run expectancy as the only relevant base running plays. I would disagree that it looks at all of base running in general. Knowing how to stretch a single to a double or take an extra base isn't really considered. Neither is stealing a base. I would classify those as part of base running.

[Bob Sacamano]

I actually thought that his recently stated position showed some change. Seems to me that ( at least in that post ), he's on board with the same plan that management is executing.

 

I noticed that in a thread about two weeks ago and then last week saw him going off about us wanting to trade Abreu and Avi again like he doesn't understand why so who knows lol

Edited November 28, 2017 by soxfan2014