Abreu trade "unlikely"

[southsider2k5]

If we wants to stay with us, he may have to take a deal like that. That's kind of the whole point. Sox positon it as sign an extension now or we'll have no choice but to consider moving him. Abreu then can decide what's most important to him. And it's not like a 4/$80M is a slap in the face. He's better off long-term by waiting if he maintains his production, but if he's happy here then that's a pretty decent deal for him.

 

This makes sense to me. Sure he might get a bigger number on the free and open market, and he knows that. But I also think that he knows right now he doesn't control his own fate because of his contract situation, and in order to convince the White Sox he wants to stay he would have to take a contract that is below market value.

[Eminor3rd]

I'd give him 5/$90m right now and just start calling him the next Konerko. He can decline with us, that's fine. He'll be at least a useful DH all the way through that.

[steveno89]

I'd give him 5/$90m right now and just start calling him the next Konerko. He can decline with us, that's fine. He'll be at least a useful DH all the way through that.

 

I get the feeling that Hahn and Co. do not want to be in the business of paying a mid 30's first baseman retail money like that.

 

The only way I would sign him to an extension is if he takes a substantial discount to stay with the White Sox. 5/90 or 4/80 is not what I would consider to be a substantial discount by any means. Abreu is not getting any younger, and giving a 33 year old Abreu three more guaranteed years is not necessarily a wise decision.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I get the feeling that Hahn and Co. do not want to be in the business of paying a mid 30's first baseman retail money like that.

 

The only way I would sign him to an extension is if he takes a substantial discount to stay with the White Sox. 5/90 or 4/80 is not what I would consider to be a substantial discount by any means. Abreu is not getting any younger, and giving a 33 year old Abreu three more guaranteed years is not necessarily a wise decision.

 

I am with Steveno89 on most every subject. YAY!

[Balta1701]

I get the feeling that Hahn and Co. do not want to be in the business of paying a mid 30's first baseman retail money like that.

 

The only way I would sign him to an extension is if he takes a substantial discount to stay with the White Sox. 5/90 or 4/80 is not what I would consider to be a substantial discount by any means. Abreu is not getting any younger, and giving a 33 year old Abreu three more guaranteed years is not necessarily a wise decision.

If you're not ready to pay a guy that kind of money for his age 33-36 seasons, then we need to trade Abreu now and work on finding a replacement out of Gillaspie or the draft or one of these guys on the FA market who changes their swing plane and breaks out.

 

We're set to pay Abreu solid money for 2018 and 2019, and the chances of us being competitive in those years are zero and low, in order. That money is basically being spent on a coach those years - that's ok, but the money doesn't make us better in the years that matter. 2020 and 2021 are the years we need production. If we aren't willing to pay him until he's 35, then he's worth the most in trade right now.

[harfman77]

I think Abreu eventually gets traded. There is no real good reason to sign him to an extension as the team has control of him through the rest of his prime. Extending him beyond his age 33 season seems like a bad idea when you take into account his history of injury and the likelihood of decline from that point forward. Once the Stanton deal is done, teams will move on to Abreu as he is the most interesting RH power bat remaining on the market.

[southsider2k5]

I get the feeling that Hahn and Co. do not want to be in the business of paying a mid 30's first baseman retail money like that.

 

The only way I would sign him to an extension is if he takes a substantial discount to stay with the White Sox. 5/90 or 4/80 is not what I would consider to be a substantial discount by any means. Abreu is not getting any younger, and giving a 33 year old Abreu three more guaranteed years is not necessarily a wise decision.

 

Eh.

 

Again, Abreu has the type of skill set that isn't going to die in a players early 30's. He isn't really going to lose any speed or defense because he has none of that ability anyway. His power might sap at the end of that deal, but if you look around, guys who have power plus a solid hit tool don't really age as quickly versus guys whose primary skills revolve around their legs. Guys like JD Martinez, Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and Ed Encarnacion are doing just fine with very similar skill sets as Jose Abreu at about the same ages we are talking about during this contract.

[Balta1701]

Eh.

 

Again, Abreu has the type of skill set that isn't going to die in a players early 30's. He isn't really going to lose any speed or defense because he has none of that ability anyway. His power might sap at the end of that deal, but if you look around, guys who have power plus a solid hit tool don't really age as quickly versus guys whose primary skills revolve around their legs. Guys like JD Martinez, Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and Ed Encarnacion are doing just fine with very similar skill sets as Jose Abreu at about the same ages we are talking about during this contract.

Dude, Age 33-34 Miguel Cabrera had his OPS decline by .228. That name should scare you as much as Encarnacion gives you hope.

 

Cruz, I will not count him as being on a normal aging curve since we know he juiced for some time. JD Martinez is younger than Abreu I believe.

[bmags]

So after all of the "sox need to trade or extend" talk, when we actually put numbers to it we are haggling over 10 million dollars 5 years from now? yeah...not too concerned about just hanging on to him. We'll be okay.

[Rowand44]

I hate trying to guess one someone's skill set is going to go away. All these guys are different, who the hell knows when Abreu is going to start to regress.

[steveno89]

I think Abreu eventually gets traded. There is no real good reason to sign him to an extension as the team has control of him through the rest of his prime. Extending him beyond his age 33 season seems like a bad idea when you take into account his history of injury and the likelihood of decline from that point forward. Once the Stanton deal is done, teams will move on to Abreu as he is the most interesting RH power bat remaining on the market.

 

Agreed^ Which is why I'm on the trade Abreu and Avi train so long as the return is solid. Once the Ohtani/Stanton hammer falls the market should open up.

 

Remember, trades can come together under the radar and very quickly, especially at the winter meetings.

 

The Sox have been very non-committal about Abreu and Avi long term...read between the lines and it tells you everything.

Edited December 7, 2017 by steveno89

[southsider2k5]

Dude, Age 33-34 Miguel Cabrera had his OPS decline by .228. That name should scare you as much as Encarnacion gives you hope.

 

The same could have been said for Abreu last year. Hitters hit.

[Kyyle23]

Dude, Age 33-34 Miguel Cabrera had his OPS decline by .228. That name should scare you as much as Encarnacion gives you hope.

 

Cruz, I will not count him as being on a normal aging curve since we know he juiced for some time. JD Martinez is younger than Abreu I believe.

 

Miggy has been overweight and hurt pretty much every year he has been with Detroit. I wouldn’t compare him to Abreu at all

[southsider2k5]

I hate trying to guess one someone's skill set is going to go away. All these guys are different, who the hell knows when Abreu is going to start to regress.

 

Well when you talk about trade or extend, this is exactly what the front office has to decide and other teams have to judge. It is absolutely the focal point of what to do with Abreu.

[Balta1701]

Miggy has been overweight and hurt pretty much every year he has been with Detroit. I wouldn’t compare him to Abreu at all

Abreu's had a number of nagging injuries, especially if you include whatever slowed him in the first half of 2016. I worry about him staying healthy too. (That's also why I think he'd be smart to come to an extension now).

[southsider2k5]

Which is why with two years left, a decision on an extension doesn't need to be decided today.

 

Except I would much rather extending him 5 years today, than worrying about trying to extend him after he has aged two more years.

[Rowand44]

Which is why with two years left, a decision on an extension doesn’t need to be decided today.

I would agree. Like I said, I'm kind of fine going any route here. Get blown away by a trade offer then trade him, if he wants to accept a fair extension then extend him, if neither of those are the case then you can just wait.

[bmags]

Except I would much rather extending him 5 years today, than worrying about trying to extend him after he has aged two more years.

 

I don't know, kinda sounds like at that point you know you don't really want him for those years.

 

I'd rather know. And if it turns out he is awesome 2 years from now, we still love him, then i'll eat the cost of certainty because I'm pretty confident the market will be similar.

 

Now, if we actually get a decent trade I'm okay with it, just skeptical we get a trade for much more than that cards hypothetical proposal (flaherty/sierra). And so that's why I'm in the "whatever" camp.

 

I'm honestly a bit tired of the hyperventilating over trading anyone we don't control for 10 years. 2 years ago so much was different. 2 years from now so much will be different.

[Kyyle23]

Abreu's had a number of nagging injuries, especially if you include whatever slowed him in the first half of 2016. I worry about him staying healthy too. (That's also why I think he'd be smart to come to an extension now).

 

You overblow his injuries every season. He has never been significantly injured outside of an ankle injury in the first season. The last 3 years he has played 154, 159, and 156 games and has emphasized his health every offseason. They are nothing alike

[Rowand44]

Well when you talk about trade or extend, this is exactly what the front office has to decide and other teams have to judge. It is absolutely the focal point of what to do with Abreu.

My point is you're going to find people with Abreu's skill set who regress big time at the age you're talking about and you're going to find guys who don't regress at all, this isn't a skill set thing, it's an individual thing. There's going to be a lot that goes into an Abreu decision all together, the focal point isn't going to be well he's a lot like Edwin Encarnacion so lets extend him!

[SoxAce]

I still wonder how Abreu will hit when the sox are actually competitive and have pressure (with the lights on). Until then, let him mentor Moncada, Robert (in ST), etc and hope he continues to be steady.

[southsider2k5]

My point is you're going to find people with Abreu's skill set who regress big time at the age you're talking about and you're going to find guys who don't regress at all, this isn't a skill set thing, it's an individual thing. There's going to be a lot that goes into an Abreu decision all together, the focal point isn't going to be well he's a lot like Edwin Encarnacion so lets extend him!

 

I would be shocked if the front office isn't using some kind of comparison strategy as to how and when to extend older players. With all of the data sources there are out there they would be fools to not be looking at historical data to decide when to let a player walk away and when to extend them.

[Rowand44]

I would be shocked if the front office isn't using some kind of comparison strategy as to how and when to extend older players. With all of the data sources there are out there they would be fools to not be looking at historical data to decide when to let a player walk away and when to extend them.

Fine, then they're going to be very confused when they try to figure out if he's Encarnacion or Albert Pujols. I hope they judge him on him and data surrounding him and not on historical data of guys who have nothing to do with him.

[chitownsportsfan]

The same could have been said for Abreu last year. Hitters hit.

 

until they don't?

[Balta1701]

You overblow his injuries every season. He has never been significantly injured outside of an ankle injury in the first season. The last 3 years he has played 154, 159, and 156 games and has emphasized his health every offseason. They are nothing alike

Until this year he looked like he was in a steady decline. This year he suddenly turned back around, prior to that he looked like he'd be finished as a hitter before this contract. 2016 wasn't just bad luck, he was a seriously worse hitter. I'm ok blaming that on injury and saying he hits when he's healthy, but that means he had a first half long nagging injury.