Abreu trade "unlikely"

[caulfield12]

Amid MLB's home run revolution, free-agent sluggers could come cheap

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2161090...gers-come-cheap

 

[Dick Allen]

half their lineup so 4.5 players?

 

Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Russell, Baez. Which of those are free agent signings? Zobrist and Heyward were, but they have been poor signings, and John Jay was a backup. Out of their lineup please tell me where the major contributing free agents are, because I don't believe you.

When they won the WS or pennant as your post referred.

 

Fowler FA

Heyward FA

Zobrist FA

Ross FA

Pitchers FA.

 

Yes. Half.

[Bob Sacamano]

When they won the WS or pennant as your post referred.

 

Fowler FA

Heyward FA

Zobrist FA

Ross FA

Pitchers FA.

 

Yes. Half.

 

Fowler: traded for from Houston so he's removed from this list.

Heyward: was awful besides the defense. Any defensive-first 4th OF could have put up close to his numbers for a fraction of a fraction of the price.

Zobrist: was actually good

Ross: third catcher

Pitchers: Lester and Lackey

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[hi8is]

Amid MLB's home run revolution, free-agent sluggers could come cheap

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2161090...gers-come-cheap

Yea - we're not getting what abreu needs to be worth for us to trade him IMO

[Bob Sacamano]

Yea - we're not getting what abreu needs to be worth for us to trade him IMO

 

Yeah. How many teams need a 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder.

 

I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him.

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Dick Allen]

So you dare to add the Cubs who went through several last in their division finishes in their rebuilding process? You dare to tell me we need to spend big in free agency and then name Boston who spent big money on Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez - literally the only reason Boston is competitive right now is because they stopped that route. The Yankees kept trotting out $200 million payrolls and then started missing the playoffs. They backed off and rebuilt around Judge, Sanchez, and Severino, and look what happened.

 

The Dodgers are insanely good at the draft. Corey Seager, Bellinger, their outfielders, they're developing talent and that's why they're on top.

 

These teams are spending money but it is not their main strategy. They are spending money to fill holes, and even then they are winding up with busts. The Cubs have a contract that is Adam LaRoche quality. You have cited him several times as the kind of thing we shouldn't do. Adam LaRoche is far cheaper than Jayson Heyward and Heyward imploded. You still haven't answered why you're ok with giving money to bums like Heyward and Sandoval?

Top 3 payrolls in baseball coming into the 2017 season. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox. Must be nice to spend $230 million on payroll and have spending money not be part of your strategy. The fact is these teams are all loaded with guys they pay a lot of money. It will be interesting when the Astros guys get all extremely expensive at around the same time. Adding guys like a Verlander may not be possible.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Dominikk85]

Yeah. How many teams need 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder.

 

I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him.

 

maybe if the sox eat 10-15M that could improve the package. the value of sluggers is a Little down due to the HR surge but I think last year was somewhat an aberation. I think the value will remain a Little down

but EE and bautista who are often named as examples also were older sluggers. Hosmer will probably still get 150M for example and he isn't really a slugger. there still will be a Need for sluggers albeit the time

when sluggers were given 200+M contracts might be over.

 

Also a Team might prefer 2 years of abreu vs having to commit for 7 years to hosmer or 4 years to Santana.

 

I think there is a market for abreu but it is limited of course.

[Dick Allen]

Fowler: traded for from Houston so he's removed from this list.

Heyward: was awful besides the defense. Any defensive-first 4th OF could have put up close to his numbers for a fraction of a fraction of the price.

Zobrist: was actually good

Ross: third catcher

Pitchers: Lester and Lackey

The Cubs A. got very lucky. If Houston drafts Bryant, they are over a century without a title. Theo was second to SD signing Sheilds. He was second to Detroit for Sanchez. Arrieta trade was lucky. Rizzo trade was curious. Hendricks as a throw in worked. B. Spent a heck of a lot of money. The White Sox can't have a payroll anywhere near them. Unlike these other teams, the White Sox won't be able to spend $200 million a year "filling holes".

 

Some luck is going to be needed, and the development team is going to have to do something it has struggled to do for years. Hopefully, it works, but eventually, they are going to have to sign expensive free agents, who may or may not work out.

[Bob Sacamano]

The Cubs A. got very lucky. If Houston drafts Bryant, they are over a century without a title. Theo was second to SD signing Sheilds. He was second to Detroit for Sanchez. Arrieta trade was lucky. Rizzo trade was curious. Hendricks as a throw in worked. B. Spent a heck of a lot of money. The White Sox can't have a payroll anywhere near them. Unlike these other teams, the White Sox won't be able to spend $200 million a year "filling holes".

 

Some luck is going to be needed, and the development team is going to have to do something it has struggled to do for years. Hopefully, it works, but eventually, they are going to have to sign expensive free agents, who may or may not work out.

 

Oh I know that. They will sign guys eventually. Not all of our prospects will work out as much as we hope. I think that's a big thing some fail to realize. You can't just rely on your own system which is why it doesn't really work for teams like Pirates and the Rays who can never sign anyone and seem to constantly rebuild. I was just correcting a few things with the players you listed.

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Y2Jimmy0]

I've wrestled with this decision on Abreu for some time now. I've always been of the mindset that you maximize value on all of your assets but I understand the opposite thought process on Jose Abreu. He is a mentor to some of the young guys and fellow countrymen but how seriously does that need to be considered? I know that Rick Hahn and the organization values Abreu very highly but his job is to put together a baseball team that will sustain success with winning a world series as the goal. I don't see them dumping Abreu to save $$ for a minimal return or something like that but his current contract matters a great deal. He's going to get about $17 million in arbitration this year and probably another $20 million next year. I've said that with two years of control, they need to either extend him or trade him. His value will never be higher than it is right now. On the other hand, I'm not interested in the White Sox paying retail for Jose Abreu. If he wants to be a White Sox lifer, and take a pretty big discount to stay then I'd be all for him sticking around for awhile. If he wants to max out his income though or even make what's probably fair, I honestly think they'll deal him. He's going to be a 33 year old DH by the time they even consider seriously winning something. He's important for the clubhouse but if Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada aren't going to be as good because the Sox traded him, then they probably aren't the right guys anyway.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

maybe if the sox eat 10-15M that could improve the package. the value of sluggers is a Little down due to the HR surge but I think last year was somewhat an aberation. I think the value will remain a Little down

but EE and bautista who are often named as examples also were older sluggers. Hosmer will probably still get 150M for example and he isn't really a slugger. there still will be a Need for sluggers albeit the time

when sluggers were given 200+M contracts might be over.

 

Also a Team might prefer 2 years of abreu vs having to commit for 7 years to hosmer or 4 years to Santana.

 

I think there is a market for abreu but it is limited of course.

 

I actually think Santana on a 4-year deal would be fine. One of the guy's best traits is his walk rate, something that can hold up with age. There was an article I read somewhere recently that despite Hosmer likely being better during the duration of his next contract than Santana's contract, that Santana will likely be better than Hosmer over the next 3-4 years. Any team considering Hosmer should sign Santana instead.

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Dominikk85]

Top 3 payrolls in baseball coming into the 2017 season. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox. Must be nice to spend $230 million on payroll and have spending money not be part of your strategy. The fact is these teams are all loaded with guys they pay a lot of money. It will be interesting when the Astros guys get all extremely expensive at around the same time. Adding guys like a Verlander may not be possible.

 

payrolls absolutely do help but only if you have a somewhat decent home grown core.

 

the 2000s Yankees had williams, Mo, jeter and Posada all coming up from their own farm and then of course they bought some big guys. but even they did a Little rebuild 2 years ago when they sold Chapman,

miller and some other minor guys because they couldn't win with an aging droup anymore, any Team at least has to do a Little retool after 6-7 years of competing.

 

and the dodgers and cubs of Course have spectacular home grown cores.

 

now of course it does help to extend the window if you can sign a lester or heyward or you can extend some of your home grown guys. A pure home grown Team can win too but usually only for 3-4 years before

another sell-off Needs to happen.

 

to win over a longer time (6-7 years) you Need both a good home grown core but also some high Level signings.

[Dick Allen]

The Cubs used 3 catchers in 2016, David Ross received the fewest PA’s of the bunch.

Yet game 7 of the WS, who was behind the plate? BTW, another thing the Cubs got lucky with, Contreras was available in the rule 5 and nobody took him. He had to be better than Nieto.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

The Cubs A. got very lucky. If Houston drafts Bryant, they are over a century without a title. Theo was second to SD signing Sheilds. He was second to Detroit for Sanchez. Arrieta trade was lucky. Rizzo trade was curious. Hendricks as a throw in worked. B. Spent a heck of a lot of money. The White Sox can't have a payroll anywhere near them. Unlike these other teams, the White Sox won't be able to spend $200 million a year "filling holes".

 

Some luck is going to be needed, and the development team is going to have to do something it has struggled to do for years. Hopefully, it works, but eventually, they are going to have to sign expensive free agents, who may or may not work out.

But the Cubs also got very unlucky. Heyward fell apart as soon as they signed him, and there was an "Edwin Jackson" thing that amazingly worked out worse than Edwin Jackson did for the White Sox.

 

The trick remains - you make your own luck. The Cubs got Arrietta because they had playing time to give to pitchers other teams hadgiven up on and one of them broke out. The White Sox are in that position right now with our lineup. The Cubs got Bryant because the Stros didn't pick him, but if they hadn't gotten big offense from Bryant, they could have waited a year or two and had the thing in BHam on its way as a gigantic offensive force.

 

In baseball you make your own luck. If you follow the right path, then you will have some things go lucky for you. That's how it goes - make a bunch of decisions with a long term plan and some decisions will overperform. Put yourself in a position where the decisions that are likely to underperform do not cripple you. If you follow a path of buying free agents where there is a 33% bust rate, then you can't be surprised when you wind up with a 33% bust rate. You need to have a roster that can overcome that, and even the Dodgers and Red Sox and Yankees have been unable to spend themselves around this rule.

[Bob Sacamano]

Yet game 7 of the WS, who was behind the plate? BTW, another thing the Cubs got lucky with, Contreras was available in the rule 5 and nobody took him. He had to be better than Nieto.

 

I'm sure there have been a lot of teams that have gotten lucky with this. What year was this exactly? Was he only like, 20 years old at the time? Young enough to not warrant a 40-man roster spot all season?

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Dick Allen]

But the Cubs also got very unlucky. Heyward fell apart as soon as they signed him, and there was an "Edwin Jackson" thing that amazingly worked out worse than Edwin Jackson did for the White Sox.

 

The trick remains - you make your own luck. The Cubs got Arrietta because they had playing time to give to pitchers other teams hadgiven up on and one of them broke out. The White Sox are in that position right now with our lineup. The Cubs got Bryant because the Stros didn't pick him, but if they hadn't gotten big offense from Bryant, they could have waited a year or two and had the thing in BHam on its way as a gigantic offensive force.

 

In baseball you make your own luck. If you follow the right path, then you will have some things go lucky for you. That's how it goes - make a bunch of decisions with a long term plan and some decisions will overperform. Put yourself in a position where the decisions that are likely to underperform do not cripple you. If you follow a path of buying free agents where there is a 33% bust rate, then you can't be surprised when you wind up with a 33% bust rate. You need to have a roster that can overcome that, and even the Dodgers and Red Sox and Yankees have been unable to spend themselves around this rule.

The Cubs got Arrieta because Jesse Crain got hurt.

[Dick Allen]

I'm sure there have been a lot of teams that have gotten lucky with this. What year was this exactly? Was he only like, 20 years old at the time? Young enough to not warrant a 40-man roster spot all season?

2014, the year after the Sox took Nieto. He had just converted to catching, and didn't have a very big year in high A. He broke out the next year. He was the Cubs version of Magglio Ordonez, who the Sox once left unprotected.

[Bob Sacamano]

Willson Contreras was the starter. David Ross was a pinch hitter.

 

Yeah as his personal pitcher entered the game. He only caught once every 5th day unless it was necessary.

[Bob Sacamano]

2014, the year after the Sox took Nieto. He had just converted to catching, and didn't have a very big year in high A. He broke out the next year. He was the Cubs version of Magglio Ordonez, who the Sox once left unprotected.

 

Well that's not really luck. That seems like a no-brainer to not take the guy who just converted to the hardest position on the field haha it seems more lucky that he was able to stick behind the plate than someone not taking him.

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Balta1701]

The Cubs got Arrieta because Jesse Crain got hurt.

The White Sox got a top 50 prospect at the time out of Yency Almonte. They'll never get that lucky again.

[Bob Sacamano]

The Cubs got Arrieta because Jesse Crain got hurt.

 

Oh what could have been.

[Chicago White Sox]

I gotta disagree with Balta’s logic on team building. Yes, developing your own talent (especially superstar talent) is critical, but there is nothing wrong with filling multiple holes with smart free agent signings if financially possible.

 

The Astros are a perfect example. Yes, they developed their core, but they also went out and signed Beltran, Reddick, Gurriel, & Morton to play important roles. Those four guys earned a combined $50M in 2017. And they were able to add those guys plus some expensive vets via trade (McCann, Verlander) & some pricey relievers in past years (Gregerson & Sipp) because of how little their core guys made.

 

The White Sox should be in a similar position come next season. We could extend Abreu at $20M/per and have a big chunk of our core in place for less than $50M in total commitments. Assuming guys develop as expected, we should be incredibly active in next year’s free agent class. And I’m not just talking about filling in that “one last piece” as Balta routinely calls it. I’m talking adding impact talent where possible (hopefully Machado & an elite reliever) and then buying yourself some time until your next wave of talent is ready by signing veterans to short-term deals at crucial spots.

 

This idea that we can’t compete until all our talent is up and has proven itself is nonsense. The goal should be build a strong foundation, add some vets while you have the financial wiggle room, and gradually introduce more talent over time to help offset escalating costs. Hahn is not going to wait until our less seasoned prospects like Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Cease, Burger, & Sheets are ready to start trying to compete. The moment guys like Jimenez, Collins, Kopech, & Hansen are called up our window officially begins. It will likely take a year or two for those guys to fully develop, but Hahn will most definitely try to surround them with as much veteran talent as possible as early as next year, especially since there will be a very deep free agent class to leverage.

 

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox got a top 50 prospect at the time out of Yency Almonte. They'll never get that lucky again.

 

Eh. As long as Don Cooper is our PC, I would take that bet.

[Balta1701]

I gotta disagree with Balta’s logic on team building. Yes, developing your own talent (especially superstar talent) is critical, but there is nothing wrong with filling multiple holes with smart free agent signings if financially possible.

 

The Astros are a perfect example. Yes, they developed their core, but they also went out and signed Beltran, Reddick, Gurriel, & Morton to play important roles. Those four guys earned a combined $50M in 2017. And they were able to add those guys plus some expensive vets via trade (McCann, Verlander) & some pricey relievers in past years (Gregerson & Sipp) because of how little their core guys made.

 

The White Sox should be in a similar position come next season. We could extend Abreu at $20M/per and have a big chunk of our core in place for less than $50M in total commitments. Assuming guys develop as expected, we should be incredibly active in next year’s free agent class. And I’m not just talking about filling in that “one last piece” as Balta routinely calls it. I’m talking adding impact talent where possible (hopefully Machado & an elite reliever) and then buying yourself some time until your next wave of talent is ready by signing veterans to short-term deals at crucial spots.

 

This idea that we can’t compete until all our talent is up and has proven itself is nonsense. The goal should be build a strong foundation, add some vets while you have the financial wiggle room, and gradually introduce more talent over time to help offset escalating costs. Hahn is not going to wait until our less seasoned prospects like Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Cease, Burger, & Sheets are ready to start trying to compete. The moment guys like Jimenez, Collins, Kopech, & Hansen are called up our window officially begins. It will likely take a year or two for those guys to fully develop, but Hahn will most definitely try to surround them with as much veteran talent as possible as early as next year, especially since there will be a very deep free agent class to leverage.

You are completely misrepresenting everything I've said with the bolded. I pretty much agree with the rest - Free Agency is a supplement around a strong foundation. You just don't like the phrase "one last piece", but that's literally what you describe the Astros as doing. And Beltran wasn't particularly good for the money spent, but because they had a strong foundation that didn't matter.

[shipps]

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Confirming talks between White-sox and Red sox for Abreu but told it probably will take an offer Rick Hahn can't refuse. Remember, Bosox GM Dave Dombrowski is not shy about trading prospects. Remember Sale for Moncada, Kopech and two others?

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